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Article: That's The Ticket: Dancing At The Deadline


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The Twins open a four-game series with the Mariners at Target Field on Thursday evening, and the non-waiver trade deadline will arrive the following afternoon. While Minnesota is not expected to pull off blockbuster moves on the level of fellow postseason contenders like Kansas City, Houston and Toronto, Terry Ryan has certainly been active in talks and there's a pretty good chance we'll see at least one or two new players in Twins uniforms this weekend.The Twins, 52-48, and maintaining a slim lead for the second wild-card spot, are in a fairly different place from the Mariners, who at 46-56 are on the outside looking in. But the two clubs share a commonality in that they are future-focused and in no position to act as aggressive buyers with a championship mindset.

 

With that in mind, let's take a look at the five most likely players in both organizations to be gone before 3:00 PM on Friday, with notes on potential matches between the two teams:

 

Top 5 Most Likely Mariners To Be Traded:

 

1) Hisashi Iwakuma, SP

 

His name has been mentioned most often in trade rumors among Seattle players. Iwakuma is in the final season of his contract with the M's and although his 5.10 ERA might not pop out, his peripherals are mostly in line with the ones he posted over the past three years, during which he has gone 38-20 with a 3.07 ERA. He is scheduled to pitch on Sunday, but we'll see if he's still around.

 

2) Fernando Rodney, RP

 

Here's an interesting case. Rodney led the American League with 48 saves as Seattle's closer last year, and opened this season back in the same role, but lost his hold on it after a terrible first two months. The veteran reliever has continued to deliver uneven performances but his velocity is there. The Mariners reportedly believe he's been tipping his pitches, which seems correctable. Could another team – like, say, the Twins – take a shot at trying to straighten him out? The impending free agent wouldn't theoretically cost a ton.

 

3) Austin Jackson, CF

 

Jackson has been an ineffective player ever since coming over to the Mariners at the deadline a year ago in the three-team blockbuster that sent David Price to Detroit. He'll be eligible for free agency this winter and Seattle probably doesn't have a lot of interest in keeping him around. Given his past success, he might be viewed as a guy who could benefit from a change of scenery, and plenty of teams could use a two-way outfielder.

 

4) J.A. Happ, SP

 

Another hurler on the verge of free agency, Happ has been struggling lately after performing decently over the first two months. He doesn't boast a ton of value but could interest some club as a fifth starter, and the Mariners would take what they can get. Happ is slated to start against Phil Hughes in the series opener on Thursday.

 

5) Jesus Montero, DH

 

The Mariners hoped to be getting a cornerstone offensive piece when they acquired Montero from the Yankees for Michael Pinedo back in 2012. He played in 135 games for Seattle as a 22-year-old that year, batting .260 with 15 homers. Since then, he has played only 40 total games in the majors. It seems odd the team so hungry for offense would be so opposed to giving a talented young bat a more extensive chance, but as things stand, Montero will be out of options next year and remains trapped in Triple-A.

 

Top 5 Most Likely Twins To Be Traded:

 

1) Oswaldo Arcia, OF

Arcia is currently stuck in limbo. He's a major-league caliber hitter but there's no room for him in the Twins outfield with Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks and Torii Hunter entrenched. This isn't exactly the ideal time to move Arcia, given that he hasn't played in the bigs since getting hurt back in early May and his Triple-A numbers aren't overwhelming. Still, he's been one of the best hitters for his age in the majors over the past couple years, and I believe his raw hitting ability is highly respected across the league. He'll be out of options next year, so if he isn't in the Twins plans they might see if they can flip him and help themselves out this year. An offense-needy team like the Mariners could make sense.

 

2) Aaron Hicks, OF

 

Another outfielder who will be out of options next year is Hicks, and while dealing him doesn't seem to make sense given that he appears to be turning a corner, that also might be why it makes the most sense. With everything he's been showing since his latest call-up, I have to imagine that his value is as high as it has ever been, and while he's looking like he'd be a fine right fielder for the Twins next year, he might have more value to another team in center.

 

3) Mike Pelfrey, SP

 

There's little question that the Twins would like to move Pelfrey, given their logjam in the rotation and his status as the only starter who is not under team control after this year. The question is whether they can flip him for anything of value. His dreadful run over the past month, combined with a mediocre long-term track record, aren't particularly appealing. But there's a chance some contender that misses out on other options might settle for him as a plug-in at the back of the rotation.

 

4) Jorge Polanco, SS

 

Losing Polanco would be tough, since the Twins obviously have a hole at shortstop, but no one seems fully convinced he can play there in the majors, and with his combination of age, excellent minor-league numbers and MLB experience make him a valuable chip.

 

5) Trevor May, SP

 

May is a much more attractive target than Pelfrey. He has shown he can strike out big-league hitters and he has many years of inexpensive team control ahead. He's also currently miscast in a relief role. Ryan will be rightfully reluctant to part with him, but May is the kind of piece that would need to be included if the Twins want to make a substantial acquisition – like, say, a young catcher.

 

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If the Twins trade Trevor May, I'm not renewing my season tickets... I just can't see the benefit to moving a guy who can be a solid 3-4 for the next 5-6 years given what the rotation will likely be following the season (ie. Pelfrey and Milone gone leaving a spot for May and Berrios). Just seems short cited to move a guy, who seems like he can be a critical piece, for a CHANCE to grab the last wild card spot this season.

 

And he does Reddit AMA's along with this... http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/04/12/117748036/twins-rookie-pitcher-trevor-may-has-an-alter-ego-named-dj-heybeef

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I'm a big May fan, and agree with y'all that trading him would be extremely tough, BUT you almost have to give up pitching to land a major piece, and I'd be more inclined to include him than Berrios or Gibson. If you don't believe the Twins should be looking to land a major piece right now, I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but if losing May meant they could land a young catcher or SS?

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I wouldn't trade May or Hicks.  The organization has a ton of money invested in Hicks and it looks as though he's finally figured it out.  He looks like a different player completely. 

 

And I can't see going after a big name, as we soon will be dipping below the .500 mark on the season.  Leave the off season for that, after things shake out. 

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The reason I disagree with Trading Hicks and/or May is we don't fully know what they have in Berrios or Buxton.  Yes, both a super prospects and could be franchise changing guys, or they could both plateau and be run of the mill guys that don't alter anything.  We know May is good and hopefully will get even better and I think we are seeing more of Hicks true ability now than we did in his prior call ups. 

 

Look at the CF hole the Twins created when they traded Span and Revere thinking Hicks was ready and he wasn't.  I don't want that again.

 

My whole statement goes out the window though if the player they are getting in return could be a long-term difference maker, which I doubt they can acquire for any of the guys on the above list.

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I don't believe that May is on their trade market at all.  With Meyer fizzling out, Ryan is not going to let the only producing piece, of trading Spn/Revere, leave when showing so much promise.  I just don't think Terry is aiming that high. 

I would also be shocked if they traded Hicks.  Although I would have no problem with this, as he has proven nothing over 3 years, except that he has been very good as of late.  Sell high. 

I agree with another poster, if you feel Sano can play third then trade Ploufe now, while his value is high and before we have to commit to him long term.

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I'm a big May fan, and agree with y'all that trading him would be extremely tough, BUT you almost have to give up pitching to land a major piece, and I'd be more inclined to include him than Berrios or Gibson. If you don't believe the Twins should be looking to land a major piece right now, I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but if losing May meant they could land a young catcher or SS?

 

 

No.  May is going to be better than Gibson and probably Berrios based on his build and repertoire of pitches.  If you have to move a pitcher let it be Gibson

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I just wish he get what ever he going to do over with it. These kids on the Twins are playing terrible baseball now and reason I believe is there worrying about if they are going to be traded or sent down with new players arriving so they are not concentrating on baseball. You can see it closer we get to trade deadline more mental errors are happening. There's no coaching that can prevent this and these in experienced players we have are just loosing it mentally. Hunter can't help this because these kids are worrying about there future and in so doing so speeding up their exit from the show. I also don't think their agents help them any either because their always pushing these kids for flashy numbers instead of just steady play and what they can do now instead of letting them grow playing the game.

Arcia is prime example of this mental attitude and reason he's in the minor's. I think Santanna  is so worried about his job that he's is playing himself out the show again. I also just believe that Ryan is not ready to trade their prospects away yet but he is willing to trade some of veteran players and this is why we haven't seen much happen yet. I believe Pelfry, Nolasco, and some veteran relievers have been on trading block with likes of Arcia, Polanco, and maybe younger quality starter if its for a catcher and reliever. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't make a move and he tries to find something on waiver wire when everyone else is making deals and will need to release someone to make room for a player.

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The logjam at SP is much less than it is at the corner OF/1B/DH spot. You do have to give up pitching to get sig nificant talent. There is no question on that.

 

I wouldnt trade a SP besides Milone or Pelfrey. Next years rotation should be Hughes/Santana/Gibson/May/Berrios.

 

One or two of Kepler, Rosario, Arcia, Vargas, & Hicks needs to be moved out of pure numbers & roster spot crunch. Kepler & Vargas could spend another year at AAA. Decisons need to be made on Arcia & Hicks though.

 

If they keep Plouffe then you need to move a 3rd player from that group. That means Sano is moving to RF/1B/DH with Hunter likely be back as a 4th OF.

 

I love having guys like Dozier & Plouffe on the roster thhat have grinded their way to success and to help the youngster learn from their journey.
 

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I don't believe that May is on their trade market at all.  With Meyer fizzling out, Ryan is not going to let the only producing piece, of trading Spn/Revere, leave when showing so much promise.  

Instead they just move him to the bullpen and use him in completely low leverage situations :-)

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No.  May is going to be better than Gibson and probably Berrios based on his build and repertoire of pitches.  If you have to move a pitcher let it be Gibson

I might use the word perhaps instead of probably, but other than that I concur.

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No way on May.  Get Nolasco healthy and deal him next year at the deadline even if you have to eat half of his salary.  Then, bring up Berrios and go with Santana, Gibson, May, Hughes, Berrios.  That's  ice starting rotation.  Mlone is there for depth or trade bait.  If Meyer gets it together, then you have a nice problem and ammo to get a catcher if that problem has not been solved.

 

Not now on Hicks.  Let's see where next year.  Is value is appreciating every day.  This is better addressed during the off-season or next year at the deadline.  

 

Polanco all depends on if he can play SS.  If so, he should be the last prospect we deal.  If not, he is an ideal candidate to be part of a trade for an established Catcher or high ceiling prospect.

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No way on May.  Get Nolasco healthy and deal him next year at the deadline even if you have to eat half of his salary.  Then, bring up Berrios and go with Santana, Gibson, May, Hughes, Berrios.  That's  ice starting rotation.  Mlone is there for depth or trade bait.  If Meyer gets it together, then you have a nice problem and ammo to get a catcher if that problem has not been solved.

 

Not now on Hicks.  Let's see where next year.  Is value is appreciating every day.  This is better addressed during the off-season or next year at the deadline.  

 

Polanco all depends on if he can play SS.  If so, he should be the last prospect we deal.  If not, he is an ideal candidate to be part of a trade for an established Catcher or high ceiling prospect.

 

Agree with every word in this post. Other than the Meyer thing, which ain't happening (and I know you said if).

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I wouldn't trade May or Hicks.  The organization has a ton of money invested in Hicks and it looks as though he's finally figured it out.  He looks like a different player completely. 

 

And I can't see going after a big name, as we soon will be dipping below the .500 mark on the season.  Leave the off season for that, after things shake out.

 

Agree, we've been through so much with Hicks that he is almost untradeable. I'm not 100% sure we will slip under .500 though.
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Agree, we've been through so much with Hicks that he is almost untradeable. I'm not 100% sure we will slip under .500 though.

 

 

I think it's unlikely the Twins dip under .500, especially if they pick up bullpen help.

 

There's enough young talent on this team and enough of it is playing well that I think they can finish with 81 or more wins on the season.

I'm sticking to what I said early July.  I'll be very happy if they win 75.  I can't imagine them being able to finish with 81 or more wins.  Our schedule remaining is rough and we've started sliding.

 

I hope you are right Brock.

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