Royals add Ben Zobrist

[drjim]

 

Good point. They have up too much for Shields and would pay dearly when he left......That was the meme.

 

That was half the story. That opinion was not near unanimous or even close.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Uh, no.

 

Their C, 1B, 3B, LF, 3 key RP, 2 key SP all homegrown.

Their SS, CF acquired by flipping their best player (Greinke) before they were ready to compete.

Their 2B, key RP, key SP all acquired with prospects.

 

This is a classic model of building within and using a farm system correctly. One big trade, great farm system and supplement with some small free agents.

 

Exactly how the Twins are rolling if they are patient.

 

You're mistaking this as a knock on the Twins, it's a knock on how we perceive prospects.  We think something along the lines of "Since the team has X players it should take Y time for them to develop and we can punch that in to get Z - when they start winning"

 

Except Hosmer and Moustakas most of last year were crashing and burning offensively, Gordon is a LF because he long flamed out on his hype as a third baseman, Cain has become a better player than anticipated, Davis an elite reliever, etc.

 

Things didn't really work out as you might have anticipated 5 years ago, but the Royals were savvy about how to be aggressive with their assets and patient through struggles.  But they hardly followed the path people were hyping when the pipeline was full and everyone was gushing about their future.

 

Best laid plans and whatnot....

[drjim]

Nothing is perfectly linear in any plan, but they were in the World Series last year and have the best team in the league this year by a significant margin. I would say the plan worked pretty well.

 

There is probably some good examples of overly relying on an elite farm system, but this would be the opposite.

[Kwak]

 

Nothing is perfectly linear in any plan, but they were in the World Series last year and have the best team in the league this year by a significant margin. I would say the plan worked pretty well.

There is probably some good examples of overly relying on an elite farm system, but this would be the opposite.

Except for the trades they made...

[nicksaviking]

I think the Teins can learn from both teams. Pull the trigger and make bold moves when your team is able to win it all (they aren't right now).

 

Perhaps just as important, trade for and sign guys to attractive contracts. Even if the A's haven't always made the right trades, they are always in position to make good trades. Short deals to vets appear to be most attractive.

[h2oface]

 

Royals are going for it...

 

But man, Manaea could be great! Nice work by #OldFriend Billy Beane.

 

Could be......... and has a better chance to not be, as all prospects. Good for the Royals. Give me back the days of trading pros for pros, instead of hopes and dreams.

[drjim]

Except for the trades they made...

With the farm system they developed.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Nothing is perfectly linear in any plan, but they were in the World Series last year and have the best team in the league this year by a significant margin. I would say the plan worked pretty well.

There is probably some good examples of overly relying on an elite farm system, but this would be the opposite.

 

Except my point is that we, as baseball fans and observers of farm systems, DO think of them in a linear way.  We do it both for the good and the bad.

 

I mean, we've been predicting the demise of the Tigers for a decade because of this thinking.  The Royals had 10 straight championships a few years ago because of their "OMG Prospects!" hype.  

 

My point was just that the Royals have achieved success in a way completely unpredictable a few years ago by doing a variety of things that involved both patience and aggression.  Too often (and you see it plenty on this board) we just assume patience is enough.  Or that aggression is enough.  And we make ham-fisted arguments for both.

[Kwak]

 

With the farm system they developed.

Which illustrates that KC doesn't cling to prospects like religious relics or cultural icons--but rather treats them as a capital asset that can be exchanged for a different capital asset.

[jimmer]

How is Wil Myers doing?

 

KCs first year with Shields and Davis, playoff contenders and a different culture. Second year, WS participants.

 

and now they got a taste of winning and that changed culture, they are a heavy favorite in the AL.

[drjim]

Which illustrates that KC doesn't cling to prospects like religious relics or cultural icons--but rather treats them as a capital asset that can be exchanged for a different capital asset.

Indeed. Great use of those resources. No argument.

 

But the other key is they cashed them in at the right time when the core was in place.

[drjim]

Except my point is that we, as baseball fans and observers of farm systems, DO think of them in a linear way. We do it both for the good and the bad.

 

I mean, we've been predicting the demise of the Tigers for a decade because of this thinking. The Royals had 10 straight championships a few years ago because of their "OMG Prospects!" hype.

 

My point was just that the Royals have achieved success in a way completely unpredictable a few years ago by doing a variety of things that involved both patience and aggression. Too often (and you see it plenty on this board) we just assume patience is enough. Or that aggression is enough. And we make ham-fisted arguments for both.

I find it hard to believe this board sorts into lazy extremes.

 

If people think of this in a straight linear ways that's their problem.

[drjim]

How is Wil Myers doing?

 

KCs first year with Shields and Davis, playoff contenders and a different culture. Second year, WS participants.

 

and now they got a taste of winning and that changed culture, they are a heavy favorite in the AL.

Great trade. Several people were supportive at the time.

 

Others, who assumed Tampa Bay and Friedman could do no wrong, weren't as supportive.

[jimmer]

 

Great trade. Several people were supportive at the time.

Others, who assumed Tampa Bay and Friedman could do no wrong, weren't as supportive.

loved that trade from the second it was made.  Not that Tampa didn't get something out of it either, but KC clearly got a large boost from it. 

[drjim]

loved that trade from the second it was made. Not that Tampa didn't get something out of it either, but KC clearly got a large boost from it.

I really liked it too. My thought was the core was in place for the Royals as much as possible and it was either happening over the next 2-4 years or not. Trade boosted the odds, and if it didn't happen the loss of Myers wouldn't matter anyways.

 

Other understated aspects is that the Royals could have still flipped Shields for value if it fell apart, and I generally take the position that you never get burned too bad trading corner OFs unless they become multiple all stars.

[amjgt]

Perhaps one of the most frustrating things about being a Twins fan this last decade has been watching other teams "go for it" while our favorite team tends to "stand pat"

 

And in this case, the "go for it" teams that I am referring to are similar or smaller markets than the Twin Cities and either division rivals or geographic rivals (Detroit, Milwaukee, KC)

[Seth Stohs]

 

Could be......... and has a better chance to not be, as all prospects. Good for the Royals. Give me back the days of trading pros for pros, instead of hopes and dreams.

 

I don't know what you mean by "trading pros for pros?"

[USAFChief]

Indeed. Great use of those resources. No argument.

But the other key is they cashed them in at the right time when the core was in place.

Jim...with all due respect, this just isnt true. KC has been waiting for their "elite farm system" to translate into big league success for two decades. They've had top picks, and highly rated prospects, for pretty much that entire time.

 

They had success only when they said screw patience, we're trading minor leaguers for big leaguers, and the minor leaguers that remain can fill in the weak spots, not the other way around.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I find it hard to believe this board sorts into lazy extremes.

If people think of this in a straight linear ways that's their problem.

 

Most of the baseball world falls into some laziness about this.  Farm system rankings are probably the best organized trolling system known to sports.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Great trade. Several people were supportive at the time.

Others, who assumed Tampa Bay and Friedman could do no wrong, weren't as supportive.

And the reasons against the trade varied.

 

I just dug up my first response to the trade: 

 

"At some point, the Royals needed to do this but I'm really skeptical that now was the time. The Royals lost 90 games last season. They're not on the cusp of winning, they were a really bad team last year. It seems to me that it would have been more prudent to wait until 2013 played out and see if your minor leaguers improved and became a solid group of hitters. Then you go after the "final pieces" to build a contender. You don't do it when 3/4 of your roster is still a question mark."

 

The argument later turned into a fiasco and I made some bad arguments (as did many others) but that was my immediate response to the deal.

 

Sure enough, they didn't make the playoffs in 2013. It worked out in 2014, though... Which was kinda my point. Now, in 2015, they're digging into the farm again because they need a pitcher.

 

Overall, I wouldn't call it a bad way to run an organization because the Royals are good and they're winning a lot of ballgames... But I'm hesitant to call it an efficient way to run a franchise.

 

How differently do things play out if the Royals win 80 games in 2013, trade Myers for David Price in 2014, and run with that roster through 2015?

 

I wasn't against the trade or the thinking that went into it so much as I didn't like the timing of the deal. It felt like Moore was forcing the issue. As I said at the time, it's really hard to turn a 72 win team into a playoff team in one offseason.

[tobi0040]

 

drjim, on 28 Jul 2015 - 10:27 PM, said:

But the other key is they cashed them in at the right time when the core was in place.

 

 

 

Did they?  I have a few examples of guys they waited forever for that flamed out.  The one example of this could be Myers, but it is a little early.  OPS+ of 120 this year prior to getting hurt and he is still young.  Odorrizi is not exactly flaming out.

 

What about:
Hochevar (top prospect at one point)

Moustakas (2,400 AB's of .687 OPS)

Aaron Crow (3rd best prospect)

Mike Montgomery (top prospect at one point)

Bubba Starling (second best prospect at one point)

Dan Cortes (2nd best prospect in 2008)

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's way too early to make a call on Myers. It's not like he's flaming out of baseball due to bad performance; all his troubles are injury-related. He's a damned good player when he's on the field and healthy.

 

Sure, that's a potential red flag going forward and it hurts to have a guy who can't stay on the field but injury problems are only a concern until they aren't. Myers could return to baseball and never miss a game again... or he could be out of baseball in 24 months because his body is broken. Time will tell.

[drjim]

 

drjim, on 28 Jul 2015 - 10:27 PM, said:

But the other key is they cashed them in at the right time when the core was in place.

 

 

 

Did they?  I have a few examples of guys they waited forever for that flamed out.  The one example of this could be Myers, but it is a little early.  OPS+ of 120 this year prior to getting hurt and he is still young.  Odorrizi is not exactly flaming out.

 

What about:
Hochevar (top prospect at one point)

Moustakas (2,400 AB's of .687 OPS)

Aaron Crow (3rd best prospect)

Mike Montgomery (top prospect at one point)

Bubba Starling (second best prospect at one point)

Dan Cortes (2nd best prospect in 2008)

 

I'm not saying they cashed in Myers when he was about to collapse. I'm saying they cashed him in for a piece that was desperately needed at the time and provided more value in the immediate timeframe at a time when the rest of the team was in place.

 

Myers will probably be a perfectly fine mlb player and that shouldn't concern the Royals at all.

[drjim]

 

Jim...with all due respect, this just isnt true. KC has been waiting for their "elite farm system" to translate into big league success for two decades. They've had top picks, and highly rated prospects, for pretty much that entire time.

They had success only when they said screw patience, we're trading minor leaguers for big leaguers, and the minor leaguers that remain can fill in the weak spots, not the other way around.

 

It hasn't been elite for 20 years - it was elite for a brief stretch, approximately 3 years before they started this run.

[tobi0040]

 

It hasn't been elite for 20 years - it was elite for a brief stretch, approximately 3 years before they started this run.

 

My recollection of the last ten years was the Royals system ranked very, very good for a long period of time.  I found a fangraphs article in 2010 suggesting they had the best system of the decade, a historically good system.

 

From an article in 2013:

 

The Royals had eight different players ranked as five-star prospects, the highest ranking according to Baseball Prospectus, between 2009 and 2012. For perspective, that's a huge amount. They were:
•Mike Moustakas ('08, '09, '10, '11)
•Eric Hosmer ('09, '11)
•Mike Montgomery ('10, '11)
•Wil Myers ('10, '11, '12)
•Aaron Crow ('10)
•Tim Melville ('10)
•John Lamb ('11)
•Bubba Starling ('12)

 

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/43714920/kansas-city-royals-for-years-had-the-best-farm-system-and-prospects-in-major-league-baseball-but-few-have-panned-out-so-what-happened

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/royals-farm-system-best-of-the-decade/

[HitInAPinch]

 

I don't know what you mean by "trading pros for pros?"

 

MLB players for MLB players, I'm guessing.  Kind of a short sighted view to building a successful team

[Mike Sixel]

They had just lost 90 games, and made the trade.....but somehow people think that team is ready to compete, but this team (5 games up in the WC a few days ago) is not.....

 

Jim, will this offseason be the time, or do we need to wait at least 1 more year before the Twins' trade prospects for MLB players?

[jimmer]

 

They had just lost 90 games, and made the trade.....but somehow people think that team is ready to compete, but this team (5 games up in the WC a few days ago) is not.....

 

Jim, will this offseason be the time, or do we need to wait at least 1 more year before the Twins' trade prospects for MLB players?

when Ryan does it, THAT will be the right time.

[drjim]

They had just lost 90 games, and made the trade.....but somehow people think that team is ready to compete, but this team (5 games up in the WC a few days ago) is not.....

 

Jim, will this offseason be the time, or do we need to wait at least 1 more year before the Twins' trade prospects for MLB players?

I would trade legit prospects for mlb players TODAY if they have multiple years of control. I've said this continually.

 

Just wouldn't trade legit prospects for rentals and I'm torn on taking on huge money for declining players (Tulo).

[Mike Sixel]

You'll have to give up a lot to get someone that has years of control and no question marks. Like, a lot......a ridiculous a lot. Would you give up the top 2-3 prospects for a decent, but not great, catcher?