Article: What If The Twins Stand Pat?

[Kwak]

 

Remember when Mauer and Morneau were the future, we just had to wait for them, then the Twins would go all in? Remember how they were going to carry them to the championship? The future is less certain than the present. This team skates plays for the future. Good luck.....

They did go "all in" in 2010.  Sadly, injuries can strike at any time.  Which is why teams have to take advantage of their "good" seasons whenever they come--even if "unplanned".

[Mike Sixel]

Right.....that was precisely my point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They did go "all in" in 2010.  Sadly, injuries can strike at any time.  Which is why teams have to take advantage of their "good" seasons whenever they come--even if "unplanned".

Where we differ is whether one can define this as a "good season" in context of the rest of baseball.

 

Good for the Twins after 2011-2014? Absolutely. It's a resounding success for the Twins.

 

Good compared to the rest of baseball? Eh, maybe not so much. The Twins were +13 in May and are -7 outside of May.

 

I don't think the team should punt the season by any means but expending valuable resources in a season where I'd easily put 5-6 AL teams ahead of them isn't a sound strategy for the long-term viability of this franchise.

 

If the deal doesn't cost much, great. If the deal helps in 2016 and beyond, great.

 

Expensive rentals? To prop up this entirely mediocre team? No thanks.

[USAFChief]

I would say standing pat is a big upright middle finger to fans, a statement to current players that they're not good enough to win, and a sign to future free agents that the Twins are still not a team to seriously consider if there is any way to avoid it.

 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

If the Twins stand pat, I will be disappointed, but not surprised. Last year, Ryan extended Suzuki instead of trading him, and shockingly, he reverted to his established career norms. Terry Ryan is just way too conservative for my taste. I feel like the Tulo opportunity was a huge miss...one that only comes along very infrequently.

 

Honestly, I am half-expecting that he will find a way to sell low on Plouffe....and then Sano will wind up ending to move off of third.

 

People are joking about a Torii extension...but I could see it.

[shs_59]

Berrios > than Hoffman  (for now)

 

But I'd say Miguel Castro  > than Kohl Stewart.

 

so Danny Santana, And Jose Berrios probably would of been the first 2 of 4 total parts to get Tulo and LaTroy Hawkins here.

 

Just for giggles i'd guess Danny Santana, Jose Berrios, Alex Meyer, and Alexis Tapia

 

is about what it would've taken.

 

I'm glad we're not bringing in Tulo for that haul.  although Berrios is the only player of those 4 that has any real future value to me.

 

Who knows the Rockies might of not done that proposaL ANYway

[Blake]

To me, it doesn't matter how cheaply Tulowitzki was acquired.

 

The injury and salary were probably too much for the Twins to stomach and I do not blame them. With the Twins recent history of injury problems, why would they bring someone in with a history of injury along with an impossibly high salary? 

 

Imagine what would be said the first time Tulowitzki went down with an injury. The press would be ugly. The Twins have enough salary and injury problems with Joe Mauer.

 

Earlier up thread, I believe Brock mentioned giving player the chance to play meaningful games in August and September. I agree completely, because the Twins will not know what kind of roster they have until there is some real pressure. Being in the hunt for the playoffs should help the Twins figure out exactly what they have and what needs to be changed.

 

The Twins need to find out if there are solutions in Rochester this year. Then evaluate what needs to be added and address those needs across the winter.

 

The Twins have, over the last few years, built up a fine farm system. I would hate to see the system stripped of players because the Twins went into "win now" mode before they really should.

 

I see next year as being the "win now" year. This year I see as somewhat of a punt.

 

 

 

 

[Kwak]

 

Where we differ is whether one can define this as a "good season" in context of the rest of baseball.

 

Good for the Twins after 2011-2014? Absolutely. It's a resounding success for the Twins.

 

Good compared to the rest of baseball? Eh, maybe not so much. The Twins were +13 in May and are -7 outside of May.

 

I don't think the team should punt the season by any means but expending valuable resources in a season where I'd easily put 5-6 AL teams ahead of them isn't a sound strategy for the long-term viability of this franchise.

 

If the deal doesn't cost much, great. If the deal helps in 2016 and beyond, great.

 

Expensive rentals? To prop up this entirely mediocre team? No thanks.

Expensive rentals?  There have been quite a few trades already announced that wasn't a rental (the player can/will remain)  or wasn't expensive.  If "winning in 2015" was secondary to "development" then why the accelerated promotion of Buxton and Sano?  Why was E. Santana signed (he would have been available next year!) Why is Suzuki played to near exhaustion (remember all the time off Mauer required  [pre-concussion])?  Suzuki has got to tire just as much Mauer as did when he was the Catcher.  If player development was the goal   then simply follow that plan and normal player development would avoid 90 losses.   I'm sorry the FO has to take the heat for not fixing problems that are right in their face.

[DaveTMpls]

Standing pat, hmmm.  The Twins still have some significant upside within the current roster, especially if you include guys that could be promoted.  The measure of a RP trade: Would he be better than Tonkin?  Sano and Rosario are just getting started.  The real Danny Santana is somewhere between last year and this year, but if the errors keep coming, then Escobar is a replacement-level player.  The Twins NEED another relief pitcher, but if that's all they get, they can probably hold off Toronto and Baltimore for the wild card.

 

I think the Twins need to shift gears now, and start looking for blue chip players.  There are prospects in the minors that are blocked by who is already up here (e.g. Polanco by Dozier).  At some point, the Twins have to trade some can't-miss prospects for some blue chippers.  Arcia and Milone for Cole Hamels?  I don't know what the right trade is, but I know the Twins will have to make some, over the next year or two.  P.S.  I don't put Tulo in that category.  Give me a shortstop with Santana's range and arm, only without the errors, and I think he only has to hit .250 to meet a blue-chip standard.

 

From this perspective, the trading deadline is an opportunity.  Teams with blue-chip players are willing to trade for prospects.  Can the Twins thin out their collection of top-100 prospects without weakening their future?  Where the heck is Kepler going to play, anyway?

[HitInAPinch]

 

Gonzalez would be an interesting target, of course Hunter would be out of a job, but that's probably fine. And Arcia suddenly becomes more expendable as well to help upgrade other areas (Rosario probably as well)

 

If the price was right I would be for it.

I'll just say this about Torii Hunter:  He's served his purpose.  Hit and hit with some power.  Provide a little leadership and get the team in an upbeat mood [pretty damn tough after 4 90L seasons].  He deserves a pat on the back and a nice exit present. 

 

I also like your idea that a pursuit of Gonzales makes Arcia "expendable".  Add him to the offer!

 

[Thrylos]

If this team stays pat, and do not make the postseason, Ryan & Co should follow Gardy's footsteps...

[Kwak]

I don't have a link--but there was an article in the Strib {about trades} that illustrated the logjam in the OF that stated "there isn't a role for Arcia...and that he is [available]"--and it was mentioned that he may well hit 30 HR in a season too.  That list included:  Buxton, Hicks, Hunter, Rosario, Santana, Kepler and  Sano (and maybe even more!).  Given this long list, clearly there are too many names to play (or roster) all of them and that in addition to Arcia several more from this list should be "made available" to obtain long-term solutions as well as immediate help.

[spinowner]

 

I just saw that KC DFA'd Joe Blanton to make room for Cueto. What do you think of adding him as a bullpen piece? He's worked between the bullpen and starting (11 out of 15 appearances from the bullpen), 8.6 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.89 ERA. It may be hard to get the Royals to trade him to us but could be available after release if he doesn't get moved. Sounds like an upgrade over Boyer at least. 

The other day on the radio LEN III referred to him as "the skeletal remains of Joe Blanton". That said, he's essentially free and he might be an upgrade over what we have. I'd probably only want him for the rest of this year, though. What's his contract status?

[Thrylos]

 

I just saw that KC DFA'd Joe Blanton to make room for Cueto. What do you think of adding him as a bullpen piece? He's worked between the bullpen and starting (11 out of 15 appearances from the bullpen), 8.6 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.89 ERA. It may be hard to get the Royals to trade him to us but could be available after release if he doesn't get moved. Sounds like an upgrade over Boyer at least. 

 

Not a bad reliever this season (2.74 ERA, 1.087 WHIP & 9 K/9 vs 5.30 ERA, 1.339 WHIP & 8.2 K/9 as a starter)  An upgrade over Fien and Boyer and that 9 K/9 is better than Perkins.   Pretty good 7th inning guy.  A. The Twins need an 8th and/or 9th inning RHRP and B. He will be gone by the time the Twins are to claim.

[jimmer]

 

They did go "all in" in 2010.  Sadly, injuries can strike at any time.  Which is why teams have to take advantage of their "good" seasons whenever they come--even if "unplanned".

Well, we have a low bar for going all in.  Getting Hudson, trading for Hardy, and getting Thome that was our go all in. It was also super low risk in terms of monetary committment, I was super stoked for 2010 for doing that and nailed our win total in my preseason prediction. The only thing we did at the deadline was get Capps. 

[Thrylos]

 

 The only thing we did at the deadline was get Capps. 

 

And all Capps did was to put up the best numbers of his life (16/16 save opportunities 2.00 ERA, 1.185 WHIP -  Better than the Twins' current closer btw,)  and secure the post-season for the Twins.

 

No Capps (and no Delmon, btw,) no 2010 post-season for the Twins.  Let's not forget this...

(and then Gardy in the post-season happened)

 

 

[jimmer]

 

 

 

 

And all Capps did was to put up the best numbers of his life (16/16 save opportunities 2.00 ERA, 1.185 WHIP -  Better than the Twins' current closer btw,)  and secure the post-season for the Twins.

 

No Capps (and no Delmon, btw,) no 2010 post-season for the Twins.  Let's not forget this...

(and then Gardy in the post-season happened)

He blew the 2nd game he was brought in to close then he blew another one two weeks later. How does that make him 16-16 in saves?

 

For 2/3 of the season we lost exactly one game when Rauch was brought in for a save.And we won the division by 6 games, Capps didn't secure anything. The difference between him and Rauch in two months wasn't the difference on anything.

 

 

 

 

[Kwak]

 

And all Capps did was to put up the best numbers of his life (16/16 save opportunities 2.00 ERA, 1.185 WHIP -  Better than the Twins' current closer btw,)  and secure the post-season for the Twins.

 

No Capps (and no Delmon, btw,) no 2010 post-season for the Twins.  Let's not forget this...

(and then Gardy in the post-season happened)

No post-season?  Baloney!  Rausch had only one blown save and the Twins still won the game anyway.  The Twins won the AL regular season (most wins) despite phoning in the last two weeks. 

[wickedslider]

 

I can't guess he will be a SS 3 years from now just like you can't guess he won't.

All I know is if his SS playing days are numbered, he still has an elite bat that can stick in a non-premium position on the field, or DH.

Look at Tulo's home and away splits. He's much much better at home than the road.

[howeda7]

What if Twins stand pat? It's always been better than 50/50 that they will. And it will forever be as long as TR is the GM. He has his strengths. Fortifying a team for the post-season isn't one of them. Come Friday at 3:00 will hear about how exhaustively they worked the phones, but there just wasn't the right 'fit.' Maybe they'll call up Arcia as a consolation prize?

[USAFChief]

 

Look at Tulo's home and away splits. He's much much better at home than the road.

There's a whole thread on this.   Like most players, he hits better at home.  Big deal. The road numbers are still quite good... .817 OPS good.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

There's a whole thread on this.   Like most players, he hits better at home.  Big deal. The road numbers are still quite good... .817 OPS good.

.817 OPS from a shortstop.  Yeah, like you said, still quite good.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

What if Twins stand pat? It's always been better than 50/50 that they will. 

or 99/1 :-)

[DocBauer]

Man, a guy could get whiplash at times when reading these boards.

 

Promote the kids! Play the kids!

 

No! Trade the kids away for veterans.

 

The Twins millions of dollars, (not a,ways wisely I agree) on Pefrey, Nolasco, Santana and Hunter...while being tied to a few others...and have invested in their own roster with contracts for Perkins and Dozier. And they have not once said they refuse to make any additional moves because payroll is maxed out.

 

But they are cheap and miserly because they don't want to invest in multi-million multi-year contracts of players on other teams? How dare the Twins not be willing to sacrifice 3 or 4 top prospects for 30yo veteran players who will be paid $20M + until they are 35-36

Ish.

 

There is a difference in making moves to make moves, and making proper and responsible investments.

[DaveW]

Papelbon to the Nationals, for a AA guy who doesn't strike anyone out, 12th best prospect in a bad Nats farm AND the Phillies are paying 4 mil. another one that TR and co could have easily gotten.

 

Hope there is a plan in place....the price for some damn good RP are dirt cheap.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Papelbon to the Nationals, for a AA guy who doesn't strike anyone out, 12th best prospect in a bad Nats farm AND the Phillies are paying 4 mil. another one that TR and co could have easily gotten.

Hope there is a plan in place....the price for some damn good RP are dirt cheap.

 

Papelbon also insisted on staying the closer, do you think the Twins were going to demote Perkins?  I can't believe the Nats are doing that to Storen.

[Vanimal46]

Another example of a buyers market this season, and no sign of a trade being made at One Twins Way.. I guess TR is thinking why pay Black Friday prices when you can wait for the "Everything Must Go!" sale in August... Ugh.

[jimmer]

 

Man, a guy could get whiplash at times when reading these boards.

Promote the kids! Play the kids!

No! Trade the kids away for veterans.

The Twins millions of dollars, (not a,ways wisely I agree) on Pefrey, Nolasco, Santana and Hunter...while being tied to a few others...and have invested in their own roster with contracts for Perkins and Dozier. And they have not once said they refuse to make any additional moves because payroll is maxed out.

But they are cheap and miserly because they don't want to invest in multi-million multi-year contracts of players on other teams? How dare the Twins not be willing to sacrifice 3 or 4 top prospects for 30yo veteran players who will be paid $20M + until they are 35-36
Ish.

There is a difference in making moves to make moves, and making proper and responsible investments.

 

What, a team is going to actually say,'they refuse to make any additional moves because payroll is maxed out.'  What do their actions say?

 

plenty of people think you can play and promote the kids but also understand the roster is a 25 man roster not 100 man roster and you can also trade some prospects.

Edited July 29, 2015 by jimmer

[laloesch]

 

If the Twins stand pat, I will be disappointed, but not surprised. Last year, Ryan extended Suzuki instead of trading him, and shockingly, he reverted to his established career norms. Terry Ryan is just way too conservative for my taste. I feel like the Tulo opportunity was a huge miss...one that only comes along very infrequently.

Honestly, I am half-expecting that he will find a way to sell low on Plouffe....and then Sano will wind up ending to move off of third.

People are joking about a Torii extension...but I could see it.

 

 

I agree 110%  Ryan is WAY WAY too conservative of a GM.