Article: What If The Twins Stand Pat?

[jimmer]

 

Hoffman is just below Berrios, and I would argue has a higher ceiling. And Castro is at least a Gonsalves-level prospect. And Reyes' salary is not great, but at least it is limited to two years. If Tulo starts to decline in 2017 or 2018, which is at least a decent probability, the Jays will have 3 or 4+ years of significant salary to eat as well. So yeah, I stand by my characterization.

going into this season, Kiley McDaniel had Berrios #24 and Hoffman # 67. That's not so close.  Berrios also got a future value ranking of 60.  Hoffman, 55.

 

Tulo will still be a quality player in 2017 and 2018.  And they relieved themselves of a big contract as well that they would have had to pay for a worse player, which helps.

[jimmer]

 

He's not a good one now. His range factor is negative and that generally doesn't increase with age. If he's a SS in 2017 it's only because Toronto has nowhere else to put him, he's definately on the Hanley Rameriz train to Cornertown.

First, range factor? Why is that the stat to look at?  It doesn't actually measure range.

 

Second, because of one downturn year on defense he'll fall off the map?Because of one season?  That's a trend?  He accumulated 5.3 WAR in less than 100 games last year and is projected to have 3 more WAR than Reyes next year.  What, he's gonna drop like stone right after that at the ripe age of 32?

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

Not to mention that Gibson is quite a bit more valuable than what the Rockies got from the Jays.

 

No matter how you view Gibson's past six weeks, he's more valuable than a 80-ish prospect who isn't missing bats in AA.

They gave up the best shortstop in baseball and a decent reliever for the Blue Jays salary dump, top 100, but not top 50, prospect and some filler.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not to mention that Gibson is quite a bit more valuable than what the Rockies got from the Jays.

 

No matter how you view Gibson's past six weeks, he's more valuable than a 80-ish prospect who isn't missing bats in AA.

 

I disagree... Hoffman was considered a possible #1 overall pick until he had Tommy John surgery in college. Castro is very highly thought of. And they got Reyes, who will also bring back a couple more really good prospects. So, at the end of the day, the Rockies will likely get 2 really good prospects (top 5 in the org types) and 3-4 other Top 15 type of prospects for Tulo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I disagree... Hoffman was considered a possible #1 overall pick until he had Tommy John surgery in college. Castro is very highly thought of. And they got Reyes, who will also bring back a couple more really good prospects. So, at the end of the day, the Rockies will likely get 2 really good prospects (top 5 in the org types) and 3-4 other Top 15 type of prospects for Tulo.

He's somewhat highly thought of but he's closer to Kohl Stewart than Kyle Gibson.

 

Unless the prospect is a blue-chipper, a competent cost-controlled guy like Gibson is more valuable (never mind that Gibson has looked more than competent of late).

[DaveW]

 

I disagree... Hoffman was considered a possible #1 overall pick until he had Tommy John surgery in college. Castro is very highly thought of. And they got Reyes, who will also bring back a couple more really good prospects. So, at the end of the day, the Rockies will likely get 2 really good prospects (top 5 in the org types) and 3-4 other Top 15 type of prospects for Tulo.

I highly doubt Reyes is going to bring back 2 really good prospects, I would be shocked if he can get one of those, and am guessing its closer to a top 10 guy instead of a top 5 guy (unless money is involved or another bad contract)

 

Reyes is a good player still but that contract is brutal, I want him on the Twins, but only if they can ship over Nolasco's contract in return.

Edited July 28, 2015 by DaveW

[savvyspy]

 

Uh...

 

they haven't tried Pelfrey in the pen yet.

they haven't tried Berrios or Dufffey or Rogers in the pen yet.

 

Pitching is pitching, and its a team game. Save resources, move guys into different roles.

 

Same might even go for the SS hole. Its amazing to me that the Twins can be so wildly flexible about putting infielders in the outfield but don't seem to have considered putting Dozier back at SS. His defense was disproportionately penalized by a couple of high-profile gaffes in 2012 but overall, it really wasn't that bad. He's every bit as athletic as Escobar. Get him back at SS, and bring up Polanco to play 2B. At least its worth a shot.

 

Even at C - has anyone else noticed Eric Fryer sitting among the top framers at baseball prospectus? He still may not have enough bat but maybe he should be catching a greater share of games.

 

Unless/until the Twins exhaust some of these options it seems premature to ship away talent.

You are on thin ice here. I suggested that MAYBE Mauer could take some ABs in RF to free up some ABs for Arcia (having Sano or Plouffe play 1B sometimes) coming up and it was treated like I had suggested throwing me out there. Even though that is literally one of the most common position switches in the majors. I mean the Twins had Chris Colabello do it last season but having a better athlete do it makes zero sense?? 

 

As you said, the team carts utility infielders and backup catchers out there like its their first option and Mauer couldn't do it?

 

Then you wouldn't have to carry a well below replacement Shane Robinson on the roster and you could get Arcia's bat (but avoid his awful OF defense everyday) back on the roster. He has nothing to prove at AAA anymore and the team needs bats.

[jimmer]

 

I disagree... Hoffman was considered a possible #1 overall pick until he had Tommy John surgery in college. Castro is very highly thought of. And they got Reyes, who will also bring back a couple more really good prospects. So, at the end of the day, the Rockies will likely get 2 really good prospects (top 5 in the org types) and 3-4 other Top 15 type of prospects for Tulo.

except that he did have TJ surgery and going into this season, he was Kiley Ms #67 prospect.  They also have to actually trade Reyes AND get quality for him. Brock was talking about what the Rockies got in THIS trade, not about what Hoffman was or just assuming the Rockies wouldn't mess up the Reyes trade too., if the trade even happens.

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

Is Kiley the be all end all authority on prospect evaluation?

[Rosterman]

The question is: who do the Twins have that someone wants in a trade.

 

Prospects!

 

Like the Astros, the Twins have to look not only short-term (this Fall's additions to the 40-man) but at next year's crop of protectable prospects. The Astros are suddenly seeing that they can't find space for everyone they have in the system to protect and maybe, yes maybe, they should go and get some finer pieces for their team.

 

The Twins may still be a full-year from this decision making process, as up to 13 spots on their current 40-man are filled by people who shouldn't be here next year.

 

And that is the killer. Any value in those 13? Not seeing it. Are the guys producing at Rochester as valuable, as any of these 13? Sadly, many of those names are on par...except that they want to get and keep a big league job.

 

The Twins have been playing obverall solid ball this year. But many of the players have done nothing to increase their own value in the marketplace (Pelfrey, Fien, Nunez, Robinson and any numebr of relief pitchers). Yet the names in the minors (Tonkin, Achter, Oliveros, Darnell, Thompson, Wheeler) have done little or nothing to make you want to keep them around on the roster next year, yet alone advance them up this year...except that they can't be any worse than what we already throw out there in relief.

 

There's a half-dozen names of untouchables who SHOULD contribute to the Twins in the next couple of seasons: Meyer, Berrios, Stewart, Peterson, Polanco, Walker. But beyond that, everyone IS a prospect and if we can improve the team with long-range (not just rental) parts, we should.

 

Except for A.J. Bring him back. Put Suzuki on the waiver wire in August. If someone grabs him, elt him go. Try to find a long-term catcher or bring back A.J.

[laloesch]

 

I highly doubt Reyes is going to bring back 2 really good prospects, I would be shocked if he can get one of those, and am guessing its closer to a top 10 guy instead of a top 5 guy (unless money is involved or another bad contract)

 

Reyes is a good player still but that contract is brutal, I want him on the Twins, but only if they can ship over Nolasco's contract in return.

 

 

I'd do that deal in a heartbeat.  Anyone know what Nolasco's timetable of return is?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Is Kiley the be all end all authority on prospect evaluation?

No, but this is Hoffman's B-R page.

 

 

It's not just Kiley.

 

Just for laughs, here's Kohl Stewart.

 

[laloesch]

 

He's somewhat highly thought of but he's closer to Kohl Stewart than Kyle Gibson.

 

Unless the prospect is a blue-chipper, a competent cost-controlled guy like Gibson is more valuable (never mind that Gibson has looked more than competent of late).

 

I agree.  Giving up Gibson and Sano for Tulo would have been a high price to pay in my opinion. 

[DaveW]

 

Is Kiley the be all end all authority on prospect evaluation?

No but he is higher on him then both MLB.com and BP.Also h

 

is results this year have been subpar, 6.1 k/9? not good.

[Willihammer]

Fair enough. perhaps my perception of him was inflated, I thought he still had the upside of the ace people saw in him before the draft. Adjusting for TJS of course. Evidently that has changed or he has slipped for some reason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fair enough. perhaps my perception of him was inflated, I thought he still had the upside of the ace people saw in him before the draft. Adjusting for TJS of course. Evidently that has changed or he has slipped for some reason.

I mean, he's not a bad piece to have in the system but as the centerpiece for Tulo?

 

WTF? Seriously, I'm still in shock right now. I can't believe that's what it took to get Tulo from the Rockies.

 

I can come up with multiple ways the Twins beat that offer without giving up a single piece from the MLB team or Jose Berrios. It's ****ing insane.

 

Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Oswaldo Arcia. That's a better haul than what they got.

 

Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Max Kepler. That's a much better haul.

 

I just can't even.

[laloesch]

My thoughts are that you focus on a quality reliever and possibly a catcher if available at a reasonable price.  That said, if the proposals are outrageous Terry Ryan should stand fast.  I don't think it's worth the premium talent (Sano, Buxton, Berrios, May, Polanco, Rosario, Gonsalves), etc at this stage of the game.  If the Twins do manage to sneak into the playoffs as the wild card they will almost assuredly lose to the other wild card or get swept in that first series. 

 

I think the time to start shuffling talent for missing pieces will be next summer when some of these guys have a chance to play a bit more and establish value. However, if the right deal does come along NOW I'd be willing to move Meyer, Stewart, Duffey, Rogers, Pinto, Arcia, Santana, Hicks, etc.   And of course Pelfrey and Nolasco are pretty much free if anyone even asks.

 

The problem I see is that the Twins just haven't properly evaluated some of these prospects yet to make an educated decision.  An example would be the slew of flame throwing relievers on the way up.  Most if not all of them are struggling mightly right now unfortunately.  But that could change dramatically in a few months once these guys start pitching consistently.  I'm also not convinced that Pinto is as bad of a catcher as everyone makes him sound.  Give the kid a shot later this season if you don't bring anyone else in.  Suzuki is just not that good. 

[Willihammer]

FWIW evidently BA had Hoffman #33 on their midseason list (Berrios not in top 50).

 

I don't think Kohl Stewart is in the same conversation with either of those guys.

[dxpavelka]

 

Standing pat is the only unacceptable course of action. I'd rather see the team flip Hunter, Pelfrey, and Milone than stand pat.

Very unlikely to catch KC whether they stand pat or not.  Not giving up assets for a CHANCE to get to a one game playoff series in not as bad as it seems.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

The Twins have put themselves in a tough situation by (likely) outperforming their true talent level. I am not sure there are really any deals that make us a contender come playoff time, that does not hinder our talent level in the next few years. 

 

I love how this season has gone and its been a blast to follow, but at no point have I had the feeling that this team could win a playoff series, let alone even a one game wildcard playoff game. We just aren't likely there yet. 

 

I personally feel that our best bet is to promote our young talent ASAP and hope that they can get experience and confidence by the time the playoffs begin...if we'd be in it. Promote the pitchers with the most dominating stuff, and get their feet wet in low leverage situations. If they fail in limited time..give them more time. Give them a REAL look.

 

Meyer and Berrios should both be up ASAP in any fashion they want to use them, but get them experience NOW. Like I said, it does not have to be in high leverage situations, so if they falter its not a big deal. But, if they pan out, you keep moving them into more important roles.

 

Trading for a RP would be fine, but only if it is someone that has a K/9 north of 8 please! And, only if it doesn't cost a future useable piece to the puzzle. 

 

Adding another mediocre SP just is adding to the same problem we have, and adding a rental legit SP still won't put us in a position to win in the playoffs this year and might hinder our future.

[laloesch]

 

The Twins have put themselves in a tough situation by (likely) outperforming their true talent level. I am not sure there are really any deals that make us a contender come playoff time, that does not hinder our talent level in the next few years. 

 

I love how this season has gone and its been a blast to follow, but at no point have I had the feeling that this team could win a playoff series, let alone even a one game wildcard playoff game. We just aren't likely there yet. 

 

I personally feel that our best bet is to promote our young talent ASAP and hope that they can get experience and confidence by the time the playoffs begin...if we'd be in it. Promote the pitchers with the most dominating stuff, and get their feet wet in low leverage situations. If they fail in limited time..give them more time. Give them a REAL look.

 

Meyer and Berrios should both be up ASAP in any fashion they want to use them, but get them experience NOW. Like I said, it does not have to be in high leverage situations, so if they falter its not a big deal. But, if they pan out, you keep moving them into more important roles.

 

Trading for a RP would be fine, but only if it is someone that has a K/9 north of 8 please! And, only if it doesn't cost a future useable piece to the puzzle. 

 

Adding another mediocre SP just is adding to the same problem we have, and adding a rental legit SP still won't put us in a position to win in the playoffs this year and might hinder our future.

 

 

I think the front office is going to be subtracting starters at the deadline.  Hopefully Pelfrey and or Nolasco.  They need to clear the way for Berrios and May.  Meyer is less than 50/50 if he continues on the trajectory he is on now, so I'm not factoring him in.

[jimmer]

 

No, but this is Hoffman's B-R page.

 

lol.png

 

It's not just Kiley.

 

 

yeah, seriously, of the three Kiley has the highest opinion of him.  

 

Notice they didn't even show his Baseball America prospect listing on his BR page (still doesn't) .  Because he wasn't top 100 (or certianly not top 50) Berrios was top 50 in BP, MLB and BA.

 

I agree.  Giving up Gibson and Sano for Tulo would have been a high price to pay in my opinion. 

He wouldn't have cost that much, certainly not Sano.

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

yeah, seriously, of the three Kiley has the highest opinion of him.  

 

Notice they didn't even show his Baseball America prospect listing on his BR page (still doesn't) .  Because he wasn't top 100 (or certianly not top 50) Berrios was top 50 in BP, MLB and BA.

 

He wouldn't have cost that much, certainly not Sano.

Yeah. Sano by himself is worth more than everybody the Rockies got for Tulo.

[jimmer]

 

FWIW evidently BA had Hoffman #33 on their midseason list (Berrios not in top 50).

 

 

Yeah, not true.  Berrios is 19th on that list.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects2015/

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[DaveW]

 

Yeah, not true.  Berrios is 19th on that list.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects2015/

Yeah that seemed odd, the Berrios national love has been pretty high as of lately.

This deal will likely turn out to be worse for the Rockies then the Johan one was for the Twins. At least the Twins got a little bit of major league value for Johan.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah that seemed odd, the Berrios national love has been pretty high as of lately.

This deal will likely turn out to be worse for the Rockies then the Johan one was for the Twins. At least the Twins got a little bit of major league value for Johan.

The Johan deal wouldn't have been that bad had the Twins done one of two things:

 

1. Kept Gomez

2. Kept Hardy for both years of control

 

Either would have been an underwhelming, but respectable, return for Johan Santana.

 

I'm not sure the Rockies will be able to match even that kind of return, especially not when they had to take the ass-end of a bad Reyes contract to do it.

[TheLeviathan]

Royals add Zobrist, be sad if we do nothing.

[Kwak]

"Stand Pat"ers--"...they wanted:  him, him, the baby Jesus, and the suite revenue...".  It turns out, no they wanted three young prospects and an over-the-hill SS who could be traded for even more salary relief and young prospects.  It's much easier to do nothing than something (which Oh my might go South) and sit back and sing about "prospects [lottery tickets] and the endless "next year(s)"--also more lucrative.  The public (and the players) have so far believed, but if "Stand Pat" is the policy--and things go South--the public will remember that they were sold another empty promise.  Sadly, the players might also remember.

[Mike Sixel]

Remember when Mauer and Morneau were the future, we just had to wait for them, then the Twins would go all in? Remember how they were going to carry them to the championship? The future is less certain than the present. This team skates plays for the future. Good luck.....

[Willihammer]

 

Yeah, not true.  Berrios is 19th on that list.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-50-prospects2015/

Oops, good catch. That's what happens when you control+f in the middle of a page.