Article: What If The Twins Stand Pat?

[Seth Stohs]

Right before midnight last night, the news came that the Blue Jays had acquired shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Jose Reyes and three good prospects. The expected response from many Twins fans came. We are now four days from the trade deadline, plenty of time to bolster the ball club. But what if the Twins decide not to make a deal by the deadline?I remember one July night in 2004. I had finished playing a couple of slow-pitch softball games and was at a local establishment with some of the guys when I saw that the White Sox had acquired All Star outfielder Carl Everett. I went home and wrote a scathing blog post about how the White Sox had made a move and would likely run away with the division.

 

I was about a year into blogging. The Twins won the division by nine games that year.

 

Since then, I’ve matured and realized that no matter what deals are made, the game is still played between the lines and on the field. The best example may have been the 2014 Oakland A’s. They had one of the best records in baseball last year at this time. Billy Beane made the decision to “go for it” and gave up a lot to acquire starting pitchers Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija. The team tanked and then lost the wild card game to the Kansas City Royals.

 

There is just one absolute in baseball, in my opinion, and that is that there are no absolutes. It’s a great game because you just never know what’s going to happen.

 

That said, making sound moves in July can certainly help. Improving the level of talent on your team is never a bad thing and can improve the odds of winning. It’s just not a guarantee that there will be actual winning.

 

With all that said, what would happen if the Twins and GM Terry Ryan decide to stand pat at the July 31 trade deadline? The honest answer from all of us should be “Who knows?”

 

The Twins currently have a three game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the race for the second wild card. Adding Tulowitzki to baseball’s best offense certainly is big. That said, the Blue Jays still need pitching and are linked to some quality starters.

 

The Twins have three perceived needs; shortstop, catcher and relief pitching. Let’s look at each of those areas and see what would need to happen with each for the Twins to win.

 

CATCHER

 

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, Kurt Suzuki has been pretty bad to this point in 2015. He had a terrific first four months last year and earned his first All-Star experience, but since that game, he has returned to the player that he has been the last three or four years, which isn’t very good. The Twins don’t need him to post a .700 OPS the rest of the way to succeed, but an OPS in the mid-.600s would be good. They also need him to lead the way behind the plate. He has the confidence of his pitchers and that is important. He’s been better of late, hitting .297 over his past 11 games.

 

SHORTSTOP

 

Paul Molitor’s ability to continue putting Danny Santana into the lineup at shortstop is equal parts impressive and frustrating. We all see the talent and athleticism that Santana possesses, and we saw how that could look on the field in 2014. It’s just been a bad year for Santana. He’s been arguably the worst full-time player in baseball this year.

 

If Molitor continues to write Santana’s name into the lineup, Santana doesn’t need to hit .319 like he did last year. He needs to take good at-bats, maybe mix in an occasional walk and drive the ball the way he did in 2014. As important, or maybe more important, he needs to be consistent in the field.

 

Eduardo Nunez has been getting quite a bit of playing time at shortstop. Though he doesn’t have much range, he has been solid, making most of the plays he gets to. Eduardo Escobar was terrific at shortstop a year ago, offensively and defensively. By going from Santana to Escobar, they would be going from really bad (to this point) to a league average shortstop, which would be a huge improvement.

 

In my mind, trading for a shortstop is not a high priority because I think they have an internal option that can be just fine.

 

RELIEF PITCHING

 

The Twins bullpen, outside of their closer, has been a mess the last couple of months. Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson were terrific the first two months but reality has set in for them. Brian Duensing was pretty bad for three months, but he has returned to form in the last month. Thompson was replaced by Ryan O’Rourke, who has been good in his three weeks in the big leagues. Casey Fien has not been the pitcher that he was the last two seasons with the Twins. He has missed time already this season with injury.

 

Adding a veteran reliever sounds great. I was a big proponent of the Twins getting LaTroy Hawkins because 1.) he’s been really good since coming off the DL, and 2.) it would not have cost a lot in terms of prospects to get him.

 

There are quite a few similar relievers available, so I don’t think that the Twins need to go after an Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel to improve the bullpen. They don’t need to give up top prospects to improve the bullpen. In fact, there will be several quality relievers available in August as well.

 

The other thing to remember is that the relievers that the Twins would be receiving at the end of July would likely get between 25 to 30 innings pitched the rest of the season. The nature of relief pitching says that is a pretty small sample size to be able to know how a guy will perform.

 

The Twins have guys in Rochester that are capable of coming up and doing well for 25 innings the rest of the way. First, Trevor May was brought in to a one-run game in the eighth inning and came through. He could start seeing more situations like that. Michael Tonkin and AJ Achter continue to pitch well in Rochester. Also, Red Wings starters Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers could come up and perform down the stretch.

 

If the Twins choose not to go get a reliever, it isn’t the end of the world. However, it will mean that guys in the organization will have to piece it together and come up big down the stretch.

 

SUMMARY

 

I expect that the Twins will be active in the next four days. Based on little, I expect the Twins will make two moves over the next four days. I don’t expect them to be big names, and I expect (and hope) that the Twins don’t part with any of their top prospects.

 

The Twins and Terry Ryan have spent the last three years building up one of baseball’s best farm systems. There is a clear long-term plan in place, and my hope is that this trade deadline would not be a big step back to that plan. In reality, the Twins have used some of their youth to put themselves in this position. They have received contributions from Trevor May, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano. They will also need veterans like Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer to lead the offense while Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana lead the pitching staff.

 

That said, the Twins players have put themselves in a position to compete in August and September. It would not be right to not supplement the current roster with some additions. Right now, they have the lead in the wild card race. Though experts don’t expect the Twins success to continue, they are there now, so they might as well go for it. Just not at the expense of the future.

 

Can the Twins make the playoffs if they stand pat? Of course, they can. A lot would have to go right though. If the Twins add minor pieces, or even major pieces, would it guarantee a playoff berth? Of course not. Appeasing fans is never a good reason for making a move, but a strategic move can certainly create some excitement.

 

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[spinowner]

 

 Improving the level of talent on your team is never a bad thing and can improve the odds of winning.
 

Improving the level of talent on the major league team can certainly be a bad thing if the wrong prospects are traded. Improving the level of talent in your organization is never a bad thing.

[DaveW]

If they fail to even bring in a middle of the road RP this deadline will be a disaster for TR.

 

The price paid for Clippard was marginal, they can easily get a good 8th inning guy without giving up any of their top 10-15 prospects.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Standing pat is the only unacceptable course of action. I'd rather see the team flip Hunter, Pelfrey, and Milone than stand pat.

[Blackjack]

Good article Seth!!! It strikes a nice balance between yes, it would be nice to acquire someone but its not the end of the world if the Twins do nothing.  And points out that doing nothing means that the prospects the Twins have will have time to develop -- instead of playing for someone else!!!

[Seth Stohs]

 

If they fail to even bring in a middle of the road RP this deadline will be a disaster for TR.

The price paid for Clippard was marginal, they can easily get a good 8th inning guy without giving up any of their top 10-15 prospects.

 

I would be shocked if they don't get at least one reliever. But the other thing is that they can add those guys (and a catcher) in August too.

[Platoon]

Standing pat is the only unacceptable course of action. I'd rather see the team flip Hunter, Pelfrey, and Milone than stand pat.

I would too, but Milone is their only LHSP, doubtful he is leaving. I cannot believe Pelfrey has any value. Hunter? I was of the impression he had a no trade? And not only wont they trade him, they are going to extend him, and I bet it's going to be for multiple years!

[Kwak]

"Standing Pat"--is the definition of Twins' trade deadline philosophy.  Oh yes, they do buy a curtain from the Goodwill Store, dance a jig, and "call it macaroni".  But it is the same as "standing pat".  My guess is that the money pail has been emptied for rest of this season and that's why the Twins did not offer a superior package than Toronto's offer for Tulowitski--because they certainly had the goods to do so!  Consider Toronto's offer:  Reyes--salary dump to match-up the dollars and someone to "plug-in" for Tulowitski immediately;  Three prospects--I don't have enough information on those guys--but I am sure the Twins could beat them.  What could the Twins have offered to counter?--Nolasco (salary dump), two of these three (D.Santana, Escobar, Nunez), and three "prospect-pitchers"  AA and A ball. We could even toss-in Duensing  , or Meyer!  But I believe it was the money (Tulowitski's salary less Nolasco's salary) that killed any deal with COL.  "Same 'ole Twins, cheap, cheap, cheap".

[mudcat14]

Wouldn't be at all surprised if the Twins stand pat.  At best, they send a low valued prospect or cash to Atlanta for AJ and perhaps a similar type outlay for another low impact arm for the pen.  At best Benoit, but I don't think will get into a bidding war for anyone. 

[mudcat14]

 

I would be shocked if they don't get at least one reliever. But the other thing is that they can add those guys (and a catcher) in August too.

 

Of course, the frustrating thing about waiting until August is that we're losing games now that we need to win.

[DaveW]

 

I would be shocked if they don't get at least one reliever. But the other thing is that they can add those guys (and a catcher) in August too.

They needed RP help (and C help) yesterday, these trades should have been made weeks ago, waiting around in August may be to late.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Of course, the frustrating thing about waiting until August is that we're losing games now that we need to win.

Yeah, this. The bullpen can't wait. If you're going to acquire bullpen pieces, it should have been done a month ago but what's done is done. It needs to be done NOW.

 

I'd gamble on finding a catcher in August over waiting to fix the bullpen.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

"Standing Pat"--is the definition of Twins' trade deadline philosophy.  Oh yes, they do buy a curtain from the Goodwill Store, dance a jig, and "call it macaroni".  But it is the same as "standing pat".  My guess is that the money pail has been emptied for rest of this season and that's why the Twins did not offer a superior package than Toronto's offer for Tulowitski--because they certainly had the goods to do so!  Consider Toronto's offer:  Reyes--salary dump to match-up the dollars and someone to "plug-in" for Tulowitski immediately;  Three prospects--I don't have enough information on those guys--but I am sure the Twins could beat them.  What could the Twins have offered to counter?

 

 

I don't think trades work like that - would you like the Twins to call all the other teams to see if they can beat the Twins' offers to acquire new players?

 

The Rockies and Blue Jays didn't need to call anyone else to make this deal.

 

The Twins need bullpen help, a Catcher, some offense (LH power) and maybe a Shortstop, in that order. Tulo is a great player and certainly would have made the Twins' offense better. I don't think he's on the Twins' radar right now, though.

 

I think Hawkins was the guy the Twins missed out on in this deal.

 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

Of course, the frustrating thing about waiting until August is that we're losing games now that we need to win.

Not only that, but since the Twins are in the wild card spot, that means their waiver slot will be behind all the teams chasing them, the odds of a Benoit, Zeigler,  Papelbon etc not getting claimed before there spot is almost nil, the teams behind them know what the Twins need, so they would be blocking every good RP out there.

 

Waiting for August is a disaster waiting to happen.

[twinsnorth49]

Monumentally disappointing if they don't do something. Bare minimum is a RP, that absolutely has to be done, they can't spend the month of August watching games implode in the 7th inning, it will be too late.

[HitInAPinch]

Well, pretty much the standard line:  Trade for these star players to help us win, but DO NOT trade any of the minor league prospects because they are Tony the Tiger G R E A T!!  Comical. 

 

The one player that is alleged to be available that would really help the Twins this year and next is Carlos Gonzales of CO.  Yeah, he's got a big salary.  So what?  He's only 29, is starting to come around.  CO is looking for SP's.  Twins got pitchers.  E. Santana, K. Stewart, A. Meyers to start.  Most likely some money exchanged and another low level play on each side to balance contracts/personnel. 

 

All a moot point.  Twins won't make it to the playoffs this year.  Not after what Toronto did.

Edited July 28, 2015 by HitInAPinch

[sane]

 

"Standing Pat" ...."Same 'ole Twins, cheap, cheap, cheap".

If the alternative is two more Ricky Nolasco signings; I favor the "same ole Twins cheap, cheap, cheap".

 

Trades and signings don't always make you better!

[DaveW]

 

Well, pretty much the standard line:  Trade for these star players to help us win, but DO NOT trade any of the minor league prospects because they are Tony the Tiger G R E A T!!  Comical. 

 

The one player that is alleged to be available that would really help the Twins this year and next is Carlos Gonzales of CO.  Yeah, he's got a big salary.  So what?  He's only 29, is starting to come around.  CO is looking for SP's.  Twins got pitchers.  E. Santana, K. Stewart, A. Meyers to start.  Most likely some money exchanged and another low level play on each side to balance contracts/personnel. 

 

All a moot point.  Twins won't make it to the playoffs this year.  Not after what Toronto did.

Gonzalez would be an interesting target, of course Hunter would be out of a job, but that's probably fine. And Arcia suddenly becomes more expendable as well to help upgrade other areas (Rosario probably as well)

 

If the price was right I would be for it.

[Halsey Hall]

I don't see much being done other than adding someone for the pen and maybe a bench player in the infield.  Our chances are slim and none even if we do win a wild card spot.  Don't dip into the future just to get a one and done. 

[DaveW]

 

 Our chances are slim and none even if we do win a wild card spot. 

I don't see how people can just assume this.

[Badsmerf]

 

Standing pat is the only unacceptable course of action. I'd rather see the team flip Hunter, Pelfrey, and Milone than stand pat.

That is all I want JR to try and do. If his past actions have taught us anything, its that he is very conservative with his prospects. I don't expect that to change for a long shot WC game. When he's had the opportunity to make a big move and put the Twins over the edge, the price was never right.

 

I'm pretty confident he isn't going to get fleeced in a trade right now. One thing I like about him, is that he doesn't overreact or make rash decisions (Capps for Ramos anyone?). That doesn't mean he never makes bad trades. Span for Meyer looks like it isn't going to end well; but at the time I don't think anyone believed it was a bad decision (I am very skeptical on Meyer and still support that trade).

[Badsmerf]

Why do they have to trade for a RP when they have so many internal options? Seriously, its ludicrous these guys haven't been given a shot. I'd prefer to get all these young guys experience before trading for an old, value-less RP. If a RP is going to struggle, I'd rather it be while Duffey, Berrios, Rogers, Achter, Tonkin are getting experience.

 

You don't know what you need if you don't know what you have. 

[DaveW]

 

 I'd prefer to get all these young guys experience before trading for an old, value-less RP.

You can do both.

[Vanimal46]

If the Twins truly stand pat, no bullpen guys, no C, no SS acquisitions, then we can kiss the WC berth goodbye.

 

I'm fine with trying internal options in the bullpen, literally throw names in a hat. But clearly someone on staff is either too loyal to the current players, or does not believe there are difference makers in the farm.

 

The other positions I guess we're stuck with Santana/Escobar/Nunez at SS and Suzuki behind the plate.

 

Idk I'm off my posting game today. It's not every year that a guy at Tulo's level is available and we weren't able to close a deal from the initial conversation with them. Just disappointing.

[Badsmerf]

 

You can do both.

I don't really agree. I'm not talking about getting a guy experience, I'm talking about multiple guys extended looks. That is what will allow the Twins to evaluate the bullpen in the offseason and make good choices about how to proceed. I don't want a band-aid, I want solutions.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't see how people can just assume this.

"Slim to none" is overstating it but I'd wager the Twins' chances in the playoffs are lower than every other team who look like they're going to make the playoffs, NL or AL.

[Badsmerf]

 

If the Twins truly stand pat, no bullpen guys, no C, no SS acquisitions, then we can kiss the WC berth goodbye.

How important is this? Would you rather trade pieces now for a long-shot at even making the playoffs, or save them for 2016/2017 when the team is more poised at making a run? I'm not even talking about these prospects contributing to the Twins, rather, being available to hypothetically trade at a more appropriate time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How important is this? Would you rather trade pieces now for a long-shot at even making the playoffs, or save them for 2016/2017 when the team is more poised at making a run? I'm not even talking about these prospects contributing to the Twins, rather, being available to hypothetically trade at a more appropriate time.

I agree the Twins shouldn't sell the farm but you don't punt when you hold a playoff position on July 31st, which the Twins probably will.

[jimmer]

IF?

[Vanimal46]

 

How important is this? Would you rather trade pieces now for a long-shot at even making the playoffs, or save them for 2016/2017 when the team is more poised at making a run? I'm not even talking about these prospects contributing to the Twins, rather, being available to hypothetically trade at a more appropriate time.

 

I would have loved to trade those pieces now to get an elite SS that solves a huge question mark in 2016-17-18-19. I don't believe buyer's markets come around too often, and we could be missing out on acquiring high end talent at Costco-like prices.