July 26, 201511 yr I know that there are tons of prospects lists each year, and BP does a "top ten under 25" list each year. But here is a slightly different way to ask the question of how the full system--including major leaguers--stands. How would you rank the system in terms of "upside"...and by upside, I mean, the biggest, most likely potential to post the biggest WAR in the next 4-8 years? The reason I ask is that I think this is the valuation that should be used when evaluating trades. It would take some research, but here is my gut thinking on it. Would be interested in others' thoughts. 1. Buxton2. Dozier3. Hughes4. Santana5. Berrios6. Sano7. Plouffe8. Gibson9. Gonsalves10. Meyer11. Hicks12. Gordon13. Mauer14. Stewart15. Rosario16. Jay17. Kepler18. Polanco19. Arcia20. ABWII Others?
July 26, 201511 yr I'd have Sano on top, easily. It's tough to say after that. In general, a few thoughts: move Hicks, Polanco Plouffe, and Arcia up some, Buxton down some.
July 26, 201511 yr I'd have Sano on top, easily. It's tough to say after that. In general, a few thoughts: move Hicks, Polanco Plouffe, and Arcia up some, Buxton down some.I think buxton will have more WAR value due to his speed and defense in CF personally.
July 26, 201511 yr Not sure how one computes WAR, but games played for me is an important factor when deciding key players to build around. There can be guys who have an exceptional WAR but miss 30 games a year based on injury. How important is that person to the building block if they can't stay on the field? Several people made reference to that in regards to Tulo. How important is durability in comparison to overall WAR? A player like Buxton is way more valuble than an ABW in almost every way. Walker has played in 94% of his minor league games in his 4 year career (most in Twins minor league system). His teams win at a 64% rate, but he understandably is not as valued as a Sano or Buxton or many others. In short how important is durability and team winning percentage as it pertains to WAR? This question references any player on the list (Not just ABW). Does durability matter? Edited July 27, 201511 yr by BoomBoom
July 27, 201511 yr This thread is encouraging just in the fact that we have so many guys who are this close to the majors (or in the majors and still in their prime) to contribute now and in the near future. A similar thread like this re: the Tigers or Yankees would look pretty ugly.
July 27, 201511 yr In your list, which Santana is ranked #4 and which Santana is unranked?Johan and Carlos respectively I am guessing
July 27, 201511 yr Johan and Carlos respectively I am guessing I am guessing that Carlos has a better future than Johan.
July 27, 201511 yr Author Yes, Ervin is ranked four, in my opinion, Danny not ranked. WAR is a counting stat, so time on the field counts. And position matters a lot. CF and SS get bonuses for position difficulty, whereas DH gets less. It's why I think Sano has more uncertainty. If he is good at third, he can put up big seasonal numbers. If he is at DH, he will not get as high WAR counts. I should clarify--I am looking for the highest single-season WAR by each of these players.
July 27, 201511 yr If Danny Santana ranks lower in WAR than does Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart, then IMO: "War, huh yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, oh hoh, oh. War huh yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again y'all. War, huh good God!!"
July 27, 201511 yr BuxtonSanoDozierBerriosHughesGibsonKeplerJayPolancoSantanaBurdiStewartMauerRosarioAbwGonsalvesChargois
July 27, 201511 yr Author If Danny Santana ranks lower in WAR than does Tyler Jay and Kohl Stewart, then IMO: "War, huh yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, oh hoh, oh. War huh yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again y'all. War, huh good God!!"I am not so sure about Santana or Polanco as having big upside, but maybe I am wrong. Stewart is a big question mark right now, but I think his pedigree still indicates some real upside left--but certainly no sure thing. Jay, with the lack of track record starting falls into the same boat for me. Maybe May and Santana should be in my top twenty instead of Jay and Stewart, not sure.
July 27, 201511 yr Author 8 years (2016-2023) : SanoPolancoBuxtonMinierDiazMeyerMayBerriosArciaGonzalvesPolanco, Diaz, and Minier are all very high there. Diaz and Minier in particular, as corner guys forever away from the bigs...hard for me to see their likely path to a valuable season. What makes you so confident in them?
July 27, 201511 yr I'm surprised so many have meyer on their lists. I don't believe he'll throw enough strikes to be a relief pitcher and will throw to many pitches to be a starter. I also think plouffe and arcia will be traded, or they would be up there. I anticipate these teams to be pretty good, with many players over 3 war. In two years this could be a world series team.
July 27, 201511 yr I'm surprised so many have meyer on their lists. I don't believe he'll throw enough strikes to be a relief pitcher and will throw to many pitches to be a starter. I also think plouffe and arcia will be traded, or they would be up there. I anticipate these teams to be pretty good, with many players over 3 war. In two years this could be a world series team.Yeah I'm pretty lukewarm on Meyer at this point, he's not exactly real young either. So the chances of him turning it back around seem a bit minimal, but here's to hoping.
July 27, 201511 yr Considering Mauer and Ervin Santana will be in their late 30's and off of their current contracts in three years, I think things will have gone awry if they are among the team leaders in any capacity in 4-8 years. Edited July 27, 201511 yr by nicksaviking
July 27, 201511 yr Author Considering Mauer and Ervin Santana will be in their late 30's and off of their current contracts in three years, I think things will have gone awry if they are among the team leaders in any capacity in 4-8 years.I was saying in the next 4-8 years, not excluding the first three years.
July 27, 201511 yr If in 3 years mauer accumulates more WAR than guys that we want to play for the next 8.....that's either Mauer being AWESOME, or really, really bad news, imo. BuxtonSanoDozier big giant gap everyone else, probably if only looking at upside......Kepler or Plouffe
Create an account or sign in to comment