Article: How Serious Are The Twins About 2015?

[jimmer]

 

Got it. Yeah, I agree with your take. Giving a player a number doesn't make sense. Giving a coach a number (who is more likely to have an understanding of how to apply and improve that number) makes sense.

 

Giving the player specific stats/tools to monitor approach, swing, etc. makes a lot more sense from the player's perspective.

I agree, but they are sharing the score (wOBA ) with the players too, so the players know what it's about when they look at that instead of BA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree, but they are sharing the score (wOBA ) with the players too, so the players know what it's about when they look at that instead of BA.

I can see the reasoning in that. I don't think players get much from wOBA but at the very least, it distracts them from looking at a truly flawed stat like BA.

 

Sometimes, it's not about forming good habits so much as it's about stopping truly bad ones.

 

If I was a coach, I'd rather have a player completely confused about wOBA and have it be a meaningless number than have them overly focused on batting average.

[stringer bell]

Back to the original question. If the Twins are serious about this year, they must augment their bullpen. The in-house candidates are weak, the minor league options are less than desirable. They need a solid eighth inning guy and could use a late-inning lefty. Those guys probably have to come from outside the system.

 

Upgrading catcher and shortstop are lower priorities IMHO. The Twins have a four game lead on their closest pursuers and trail LA and Houston by two games. We saw two wild card teams in the World Series last year, so yes it is worth it to pursue this year and the investment doesn't have to be too much.

[ashbury]

I think the Dodgers share easy to digest stats. I suspect most of their internal stars are not so easy to digest. The coaches probably know them but I imagine the coaches take those stats and use them to, you know, coach and stuff.

Apart from the ease of explanation, another aspect of what to share is that some analyses are more valuable when the subject of the analysis isn't aware. As a trivial example, suppose the analysis says that a certain batter needs to take more walks. I doubt you would just tell the player that; too much risk that he'd focus on it and lose important aggressiveness on certain pitches. You want him to take more walks in the context of keeping the other batting numbers up. A good coach will interpret this for the player in a way he can use, tying in with what you said.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

Upgrading catcher and shortstop are lower priorities IMHO. The Twins have a four game lead on their closest pursuers and trail LA and Houston by two games. We saw two wild card teams in the World Series last year, so yes it is worth it to pursue this year and the investment doesn't have to be too much.

Twins are 29th in WAR from the shortstop position and 27th in WAR from the catcher position.  If those are low priorities, then WOW :-)

[Brock Beauchamp]

Twins are 29th in WAR from the shortstop position and 27th in WAR from the catcher position. If those are low priorities, then WOW :-)

I'm impressed somebody is worse off at the SS position.

[stringer bell]

I've said it on other threads, Eduardo Escobar can give them league-average offense and defense and he's already on the roster.  As for catcher, probably getting a solution for the rest of this year plus years to come would cost too much in terms of prospects. I'd take several catchers over Zuke, but for right now the rental of an AJ would help this year without much cost.

[Willihammer]

I also like the AJ idea. Teams would continue to run hogwild on us but at least the offense would be better.

 

I wonder what it would take to get Alexei Ramirez from the White Sox. Think they'd take Escobar back?

[Willihammer]

Ramirez in July .853 OPS, .327 BABIP.

[by jiminy]

 

I don't believe for a second that the Twins are a playoff caliber team.  The consistent hitting and fielding just isn't there.  I'm thinking the series starting tonight against the Yankees should seal the issue for the front office.

 

I've advocated rotating MiLB players in and out of the MLB team to get a better feel of what they've got and what then need to work on. 

This is kind of how I feel. What's been fun is seeing young guys produce. Trading young guys for mediocre veterans would not be fun.

 

To me, the time to mortgage your future is when you're going for a championship. Not when you're going for a wild card. I think the Twins have a realistic shot at the playoffs; but I think that's true with our without a trade. What I don't think is that they're one or two players away from being the best team in the league. Not even close. So why make yourself worse to chase a mirage?

 

If this team has a shot at a championship, it is through building long term with young talent.

 

Trading away young talent is not the way to a championship. It's moving in the opposite direction.

 

Am I categorically opposed to trading prospects for upgrades? Of course not. But not if it means trading away people who are likely building blocks to a championship team. And I'd be much happier about a trade for someone who might be here a while.

 

Given their actual prospects this year, I'd rather see them take a chance on a young flame thrower from our own system in the bullpen than a veteran. Either approach could succeed or fail. But throwing a minor leaguer in their improves our chances next year, by gaining him experience, while the other approach involves losing a player forever.

 

If you're trading people with real value, it should be for a catcher or shortstop who could fill a position of need long term. Beyond that, I'd stick with Mets type trades--low level prospects for marginal veterans--or just promote from within.

[spinowner]

 

 I think the Twins have a realistic shot at the playoffs; but I think that's true with or without a trade. What I don't think is that they're one or two players away from being the best team in the league. Not even close. So why make yourself worse to chase a mirage?

 

If this team has a shot at a championship, it is through building long term with young talent.

 

Trading away young talent is not the way to a championship. It's moving in the opposite direction.

Another very good way to say it.

 

[jimmer]

 

I don't believe for a second that the Twins are a playoff caliber team.  The consistent hitting and fielding just isn't there.  I'm thinking the series starting tonight against the Yankees should seal the issue for the front office.

 

I've advocated rotating MiLB players in and out of the MLB team to get a better feel of what they've got and what then need to work on. 

I don't think they are either.  Their May was nice but that doesn't make them a playoff caliber team.  It shouldn't make us act as if we are.

[USAFChief]

As of now, with over half the season gone, the Twins ARE a playoff caliber team.

 

Not trying to help that team, because of fear you might hurt a future team that may or may not be a playoff caliber team, is criminal IMO.

[spinowner]

I'm surprised no-one has brought up 1987 as an example of how an underdog can win the WS. Andy MacPhail had a well-known quote: "We were just trying to get organized and we wound up winning the World Series" or something to that effect.

This is apples vs oranges. Those Twins would have been very unlikely to win it all under today's system. That year the Twins had the fifth-best record in the league. If they qualified for the postseason they would have been the second wild card team. As such they would not have held home field for any series. (The NL won the ASG.) Beyond that, in 1987 a team only had to win eight postseason games against two teams to become World Champions. Now a wild card team has to win twelve postseason games against four teams, obviously a much taller order.

[jimmer]

 

As of now, with over half the season gone, the Twins ARE a playoff caliber team.

Not trying to help that team, because of fear you might hurt a future team that may or may not be a playoff caliber team, is criminal IMO.

that's why you get a player for now and the future.  Someone like Tulo :-)

 

Postseason probability for Twins right now, around 38%

Edited July 25, 2015 by jimmer

[USAFChief]

A much taller order, but I wonder how the Gigantes view this issue.

[cmb0252]

Am I the only person interested in trading for paps and slotting him in the 8th right before Perks? It sounds like a lot of his price tag has fallen.

[spinowner]

 

As of now, with over half the season gone, the Twins ARE a playoff caliber team.

Not trying to help that team, because of fear you might hurt a future team that may or may not be a playoff caliber team, is criminal IMO.

We'll have to agree to disagree. The Twins, by all indications, are at best a borderline postseason caliber team. They are almost certainly not a world championship caliber team, even with upgrades. What is criminal, IMO, would be to do something to negate the work that has been done to make our future as bright as it is.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As of now, with over half the season gone, the Twins ARE a playoff caliber team.

 

Not trying to help that team, because of fear you might hurt a future team that may or may not be a playoff caliber team, is criminal IMO.

Agreed. It is a little maddening to see so many folks say that Arcia, Kepler, Gonsalves, etc. are "off limits". You obviously don't have to give them away if all the market will bear is Pierzynski and Hawkins, but if you're not willing to even consider offering them for better players you're doing the 2015 team and fans a great disservice.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Am I the only person interested in trading for paps and slotting him in the 8th right before Perks? It sounds like a lot of his price tag has fallen.

The market may be slow for him, but I don't know if that means the price has fallen. The primary driver of a Papelbon trade right now is Papelbon wanting out of Philly -- the team itself has not shown much inclination to dismantle and shed salary. I am not at all sure they will cede to his demand, and if he will change his tune about wanting to close.

[Mike Sixel]

How do they become serious contenders next year without a big trade? There are zero SS or C FAs. .....are they signing some ace? A great OF or 1B?

[adorduan]

 

Agreed. It is a little maddening to see so many folks say that Arcia, Kepler, Gonsalves, etc. are "off limits". You obviously don't have to give them away if all the market will bear is Pierzynski and Hawkins, but if you're not willing to even consider offering them for better players you're doing the 2015 team and fans a great disservice.

But that's not really the argument.  People are talking about trading Gibson, Berrios, Polanco etc.  Big difference.  I'd trade any of the ones you listed for the right player.

[Mike Sixel]

Polanco should not be off limits. Not even close.