Article: How Serious Are The Twins About 2015?

[drjim]

 

If they are serious, this team probably needs more than 1 outside bullpen arm.  Or should have started evaluating internal bullpen arms more closely awhile ago.  Adding one at the deadline is half-assed.

 

Catcher you are probably right, not much they can do.  Although they may also need a corner OF, or an infielder if they don't trust Escobar -- again, letting the deadline pass without such an addition OR even evaluating your internal options seems half-assed.

 

For once, I'd like to see TR use his whole ass.  

 

They have used 12 relievers so far, that is a decent amount of internal evaluation. Probably need 2 arms from outside.

 

I'm not sure there is a clear and reasonable SS upgrade out there.

[drjim]

 

Tonkin, ugh.  He's been Pelfrey painful to watch when he's been up

 

I agree. But what I think is being lost and is not said enough is that he has the best performance in AAA. So all the people clamoring for internal options never acknowledge the fact that they are unlikely to be better than Tonkin. This probably explains the Twins moves so far.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Scott Kazmir was traded for two A-ball players that didn't rate in the Astros' top 20.

 

If Ryan can't move either Pelfrey or a prospect we don't care about for a middling relief pitcher, I consider that a failure.

Those were preseason rankings.  A lot can change in a few months (see Meyer and Kepler for the Twins).  One of the prospects in the Kazmir deal even cracked Sickels midseason top 75.  Kazmir is no star, but he's a pitcher on a roll.  Pelfrey is quite likely below the "eh, why bother?" line for most clubs at the moment.

 

That said, I fully agree that TR needs to acquire a reliever somehow.  That's pretty much the bare minimum he has to do at this trade deadline.

[jimmer]

 

I thought I'd get a response, just not that soon. 

Your plan worked perfectly :-)

 

Not sure what gets a faster response.  the one you said about needing a backup catchers or

 

A:if someone said we need more poor fielding corner OF

B: more DH types

C: More back end SPs.

 

 

Edited July 24, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They're not bad prospects, I was merely pointing out that Scott Kazmir, one of the most desirable starters available this July, was traded for two guys most Astros' fans didn't even realize existed in their system.

To be fair, Astros fans have something to pay attention to at the MLB level for a change.

 

I guarantee if that catcher was in the Twins system, we would be well aware of him, and there would probably be several threads on this board advocating his immediate promotion to MLB.  

[whydidnt]

I think Terry Ryan is probably too risk-adverse to pull off anything major to improve the team this year. I don't think the lack of activity means he doesn't think they have a chance, just that he tends to overvalue the guys he has, particularly at the minor league level, which is where we should be trading from. I would have loved to see him pull off a deal for Kazmir, similar to the one the Astro's got. Yes, Nottingham may turn into an All-Star C, but that is a slim chance. Kazmir instantly becomes the teams best pitcher. If Ryan was GM of the Astros would he have pulled the trigger. I doubt it, which is why all this talk of dealing at the deadline typically leads to nothing. Did Ryan even have the Twins in the discussion with the A's, or was he content with the "six" SP we have today?

 

Put it this way, over the last 4 years the Twins should have been obvious sellers at the deadline. How often did they sell?  I think this year, we'll see the opposite, being obvious buyers, but not buying anything of value. That's just who Ryan is, much more afraid of making the wrong decision than concerned about making the team better. AND I don't advocate for ripping the farm system apart. However, there is enough depth there now to make some meaningful deals without significantly damaging our future. 

[brvama]

I would like to see a trade for someone like Clipper of the A's or the Marlins Cishek. Would be a great set up man for Perk and a backup closer, if needed. As someone mentioned elsewhere, that would create a tough duo for the last 6 outs. Duesing and Fien then can be used for the 7th inning. Then add a Tomkin/Achter/Duffy into the mix and I would be satisfied with those moves.

 

As far as Berrios, I'm not in favor of bringing him up yet. While he's pitching well, he's not dominating to warrant a move up, especially with others available. I'd rather have him continue to refine his skills so he can be ready to enter the SP fray next spring. Also, adding him this year will likely not give the Twins that great of boost having him in the BP. I believe others are just as capable. His strength is as a SP. In addition, before I'd add him to the roster I'd want to be pretty sure that he can stick, before using an option this year.

 

I'd also stick Escobar at SS, bring up Polanco for the bat and PT play, along with Arcia. Danny S needs to go down to get back on track for a Sep call up. Any trades for C or SS need to be future inspired trades. 

 

IMHO.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They have used 12 relievers so far, that is a decent amount of internal evaluation.

Yup.  They evaluated Thompson for most of the year, Stauffer, Tonkin again, Thielbar again for 6 games, Meyer for two games, May and O'Rourke for mop-up duty...

 

Why is Achter even on the 40-man roster if he's not going to get a look?

[Brock Beauchamp]

To be fair, Astros fans have something to pay attention to at the MLB level for a change.

 

I guarantee if that catcher was in the Twins system, we would be well aware of him, and there would probably be several threads on this board advocating his immediate promotion to MLB.

Hah, all too true.

[Mike Sixel]

Kazmir is not the Astros best pitcher now, but I agree with everything else......

[drjim]

 

Yup.  They evaluated Thompson for most of the year, Stauffer, Tonkin again, Thielbar again for 6 games, Meyer for two games, May and O'Rourke for mop-up duty...

 

Why is Achter even on the 40-man roster if he's not going to get a look?

 

I have a suspicion that Achter won't be come March 1.

[whydidnt]

 

Kazmir is not the Astros best pitcher now, but I agree with everything else......

Not sure if this was directed to my post, but...I meant to indicated that Kazmir would have been the Twins best P. As for the Astros - not sure if I'd rather have him of Keuchel. But that's a nice 1-2 for any team with playoff aspirations.

[clone52]

 

At least you'd think they could swap Mike Pelfrey for Trevor May, and swap Danny Santana for Jorge Polanco. Both simple moves, both good chance of success.

 

Pelfrey at this point could be a good two-pitch reliever, while May could get back to his surprisingly good development into a solid starter. Santana could go back to AAA to work on fielding footwork, stealing bases and plate discipline, while Polanco potentially could provide a much more mature bat to a struggling lineup. Polanco's fielding is no worse than Santana's, and I recall from last season that Polanco is a better base stealer.

 

Other simple moves cost nothing, like bringing up Oswaldo Arcia to hit behind Sano against righties, replacing the good fielding but modest bat of Shane Robinson. From what I saw earlier this week, the Twins desperately need to get more power bats in their lineup. If I could figure out where to put Kennys Vargas and AB Walker, I'd get them in somewhere, too. It puts a lot more pressure on pitchers when you've got some bully boys in the order.

 

Other simple moves I expect are coming anyway, like replacing Blaine Boyer with JO Berrios, replacing Casey Fien with Michael Tonkin, and replacing Brian Duensing with Taylor Rogers.

 

I would much rather see the Twins work these inside moves than start trading away prospects for short term rentals or gutting the team for Troy Tulowitzky. Baseball is a show for our entertainment. Watching young guys develop into good ballplayers is very entertaining to me.

 

I agree with almost all of your assessment, although I don't know how you can say adding Polanco adds a mature bat to the lineup.  I'd like the move, but there is no guarentee he'd light it up in the majors.  More likely he'll struggle early on, but I would like to see what he can do.

 

I agree with bringing Arcia up, but not at the expense of Robinson.  The team doesn't need Escobar, Nunez and Santana/Polanco.  I would use Escobar or Nunez as trade bait for a reliever, catcher or SS (obviously as a piece of a trade for a catcher or SS).

 

As for Robinson, if Buxton comes back, rehabs in AAA and looks good there, then you could use Buxton to replace Robinson if you want.

 

Stick with Rosario.  Sure he's struggling in July, but even his July OPS is not Santana/Suzuki bad.  Plouffe, Mauer and Hunter have had months just as bad as Rosario in July.  Even Dozier has had months not much better.

[James]

 

Put it this way, over the last 4 years the Twins should have been obvious sellers at the deadline. How often did they sell?  I think this year, we'll see the opposite, being obvious buyers, but not buying anything of value. That's just who Ryan is, much more afraid of making the wrong decision than concerned about making the team better. AND I don't advocate for ripping the farm system apart. However, there is enough depth there now to make some meaningful deals without significantly damaging our future. 

In the past 4 years the Twins haven't had many assets to sell, and the ones that they have had, weren't worth a ton.  Last year they had Suzuki and Willingham.  You could make the argument that we they could have sold high on Perkins, but the bullpen would probably be in even worse shape now, plus we don't know what they were being offered in return.  

 

There are other examples of guys getting traded in the past 4 years, Liriano and Morneau come to mind.  So, to say that they didn't sell is a little inaccurate.  

 

As for being buyers this year, I think people are going to be disappointed in what happens.  I don't think TR is going to make any big splashes because I think that the FO sees their real opportunity for contention starting in 2016.  I think they'll make a few trades, especially for a bullpen arm, but I have a feeling that the guy the get won't be a top tier sort of reliever.   It'll probably be a guy like Steve Cishek, but that might be a stretch. I hope they aim a little higher, but I don't really see it happening.

Edited July 24, 2015 by James

[DaveTMpls]

I don't have a specific suggestion for improving the team, but I will tell you this:  The Twins can beat anybody at home, and I do mean ANYBODY.  Because of this, they could win a wild card spot with their current lineup.  I agree it would be worth their while to make some improvements.  It means making hard choices on-the-fly though.  Does Danny Santana have a future with the Twins?  How about Arcia?   Polanco?  Twins can't play everyone.  Who are you going to keep?  Trading for a good player means giving up a good player.

[halfchest]

Have we considered tulowitzki at all?  I haven't seen any coverage of that possibility on this site and it's kind of pathetic.  He's a perfect fit and I'm sure we could get him for Brian Duensing and a PTBNL or two

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I have a suspicion that Achter won't be come March 1.

Achter could be one of several guys on the bubble -- but then wouldn't you want to see more of him while you can?  He's got two option years remaining after this one, so even if he's not a shutdown guy, he could be useful going forward.

 

Instead, we haven't even looked at him, outside of 11 innings after rosters expanded last year and we were out of the race.

 

I notice you said "March 1" -- if they think that little of him, to not even look at him in our 2015 bullpen, and likely to make him one of the first casualties next spring, I hope we don't bother protecting him from the Rule 5 draft again this winter.

[Otto von Ballpark]

From Seth's article on Duffey:

 

AJ Achter should already be in the Twins bullpen.

And this is coming from mild-mannered Seth Stohs, no less.

[drjim]

 

From Seth's article on Duffey:

And this is coming from mild-mannered Seth Stohs, no less.

 

Impossible to conceive that Seth would overstate the value of a prospect!

[Vance_Christianson]

 

I think Berrios needs to be up with the big club in some capacity. He's proved he can help the Twins, so why not let him show us what he's got in the bullpen? Also, trade Pelfrey for a bag of balls, or have him switch spots with May. He's pitched himself out if a rotation spot.

Switch spots IMO, that's what should've happened to begin with. Typical Twins move.....

[spanman2]

 

I notice people think we need to bring in a backup catcher.

 

Second look at Drew Butera? 

IALTO

[drjim]

 

Achter could be one of several guys on the bubble -- but then wouldn't you want to see more of him while you can?  He's got two option years remaining after this one, so even if he's not a shutdown guy, he could be useful going forward.

 

Instead, we haven't even looked at him, outside of 11 innings after rosters expanded last year and we were out of the race.

 

I notice you said "March 1" -- if they think that little of him, to not even look at him in our 2015 bullpen, and likely to make him one of the first casualties next spring, I hope we don't bother protecting him from the Rule 5 draft again this winter.

 

I just don't see the concern. He is pitching plenty in AAA to get enough of a scouting look to know what they have. He's doing fine in Rochester but it's not like he's blowing away the competition demanding a call up.

 

I said March 1 because it could be some time in the offseason depending on how everything shakes out. There's no reason to remove him unless they need the space, and I haven't looked closely enough to determine if that would happen with Rule 5 needs or if they sign a free agent or two, or if the space is even needed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

What kind of crazy string on injuries would it take to even get Achter in MLB?  Since spring training, we've had a reliever move into the rotation, the demotion of his replacement, 4 relievers have hit the DL at various points, one of those guys got released... meanwhile, Achter has sitting on the 40-man roster the whole time, making multi-inning appearances at AAA, averaging a K an inning, only 5 hits per 9 innings, and a 2-something ERA...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Impossible to conceive that Seth would overstate the value of a prospect!

Fair enough.  But I don't know if this is Seth's prospect love talking -- Achter turns 27 in August, and our bullpen this year has been largely a combination of bad, irrelevant (May in mop-up duty), low upside (Thompson), and dead-end (Boyer, Stauffer, etc.).

 

Regardless of our plan for Achter, he's been healthy, performing decently, and on the 40-man roster the whole time.  It's kind of crazy that Achter hasn't even got a look at all, it took until July to look at anyone new (May & O'Rourke), and we're fast approaching the deadline without even trying these new options in anything other than mop-up roles.

[drjim]

I'm kind of an Occam's razor guy - probably applies well to Achter.

 

Despite the daily histrionics on this board (and say the title of this post), I do think the Twins are trying to win, which would include putting the best bullpen out there (aside from stunting the development of starting pitching prospects). 

[Platoon]

May was especially on a role before the demotion and was a bummer to see him demoted.  At the same time I don't know how you pull Pelfrey at that time as I believe he still had a sub 3.00 ERA, peripherals be damned.  That said, now there is plenty of evidence that the luster has wore off, hoping after the next trip through the rotation they make the switch.

 

You don't pull him. You sell high, just once! PLEASE!

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I'm a huge Berrios guy, but how has he proven that he can help the Twins?  He should be really good down the road and he might be able to do something for the Twins down the stretch, but I don't know that he's proven that. 

 

Duffey has put up better numbers in AAA and I think that would be a bold move to bring him up in the bullpen, much less to start.

 

I'd love to see Berrios up, but there's no way to know how ready he is, or more so, how he would do.

 

_________________________

 

I agree 100% with you. Seth. Berrios' MiLB record shows that he does great at one level, then does pretty terrible at the next level until he figures it out, then he does great again. Giving him a taste of MLB action would be great (for him and us fans), but I don't think we can realistically expect stellar, or even average results for another year, possibly two. (He is only 21 years and 2 months old.)

 

Edited July 24, 2015 by ScrapTheNickname

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm kind of an Occam's razor guy - probably applies well to Achter.

 

Despite the daily histrionics on this board (and say the title of this post), I do think the Twins are trying to win, which would include putting the best bullpen out there (aside from stunting the development of starting pitching prospects). 

 

so you think they believe that Pelfrey is a better starter than May, that Santana is a better SS than other options, and that this bullpen would not be better with Duffey, Berrios, Rogers, Tonkin, Achter replacing even 1 guy?

 

that May and Graham should be babied in the bullpen, and not used in place of other, lesser, options?

Edited July 24, 2015 by mike wants wins

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm kind of an Occam's razor guy - probably applies well to Achter.

 

Despite the daily histrionics on this board (and say the title of this post), I do think the Twins are trying to win, which would include putting the best bullpen out there (aside from stunting the development of starting pitching prospects).

I don't think there's anything wrong with this title. It's a legitimate question and there are doubts whether the Twins SHOULD be serious about 2015.

 

I don't think they should be that serious about this season. Make moves but only if they don't cost valuable prospects or they help the next few years as well. I'd lose my **** if they traded somebody like Kepler for Price.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's one thing to not be serious, it's another thing to just go through the motions when you're in playoff position in late July.  So far, they've mostly treated this bullpen like it was 2014 or 2013, like if we just let Roenicke, Burton, and Boyer finish the season, we'll be doing them a solid on their future contract chances...