Article: How Serious Are The Twins About 2015?

[Mike Sixel]

As opposed to relying on guys in AA who have never even played in the majors? Look, everything could align perfectly in 2018 (wow, 7 years......), but the odds of that happening are not super high. We all thought M&M would be together, healthy, and carrying this squad still......

[SwainZag]

 

As opposed to relying on guys in AA who have never even played in the majors? Look, everything could align perfectly in 2018 (wow, 7 years......), but the odds of that happening are not super high. We all thought M&M would be together, healthy, and carrying this squad still......

 

I just chose to be the optimist when I agreed with him about 2018.  The Twins have more young talent in AA-AAA-MLB right now than I can ever remember being a Twins fan.

[Platoon]

1. You don't know that they aren't trying to trade Pelfrey.

2. If you think Pelfrey is starting to come back to earth and isn't going to be worth much, why would other teams not know this as well?

 

I'm not saying they shouldn't try to trade Pelfrey.  I definitely think the Twins need to move him.  But I also think that it might be a little premature to say that the Twins are not trying to sell high on him.

I did not say they weren't trying to trade him. I alluded to the fact that they didn't. It was also a commentary on the FO reticence to sell high. Instead they get sucked into Suzuki like contracts! And as an aside, the Twins have made it known that they will not trade a newly signed player, even one who was to be a year long bridge, ie Suzuki, as the FO considers it disrespectful to sign a player and trade him that year? This was the reason given for not cashing in on Willinghams big year. Oddly, the players cash in, but the team doesn't.

[spinowner]

 

He was brought in to take 6 years to make them a contender?

 

so Houston was stupid to acquire Kazmir? If the Cubs go get help, they will also be stupid for trying to contend earlier than planned?

It's been less than 4 years as of now. Rebuilding a baseball team usually takes a minimum of 4 years, and considering that our minor league system was in a shambles when TR took over 5-6 years was a very reasonable timetable. In 2 more years when the Twins are dominating the AL you'll finally acknowledge that TR knew what the plan should be, how to execute it and succeed.

[Kwak]

 

I did not say they weren't trying to trade him. I alluded to the fact that they didn't. It was also a commentary on the FO reticence to sell high. Instead they get sucked into Suzuki like contracts!

 Yet, I fear that there were worse options than Suzuki--especially when I'm convinced that the Twins would have selected said "worse option".  I envision a promotion (and rotation) of the Twins MiL catchers all year long!  The anticipated collective OPS (averaged) of those "Twins Catchers" is less than .500!  Whew!!--though it would have permitted another Stauffer-like RP contract!  HMMM.

[jimmer]

 

I like May, and I think long term he's a better option.  The reality though is that in terms of runs being allowed, Pelfrey has been a better pitcher, even after these last few rather poor outings.  The long term out look in me says that we need to get May those innings.  Short term (though if Pelfrey keeps laying eggs in his outings that will change too), but winning now, I can see (though I don't agree with) why it is that Pelfrey is in the rotation.  Hopefully, he or Millone is traded in a week or two and that renders this moot.

Sorry, I need to repost this:When May was demoted out of the rotation, he had the highest WAR of any starter in that rotation (still does. Pelfrey has half of what May has).  He had the best FIP of any starter in that rotation (better than Pelfrey by a full run). He also struck out the most per 9IP of any starter in that rotation (3.5 more than Pelfrey per 9IP) while still being 2nd in least amount of BB per 9IP (2nd to Hughes and his .87 walks per 9IP)  All this while having still having the worst luck of any pitcher in that rotation on balls in play (.341).  We understand how fluky BABIP is right?  Danny Santana does.

 

There is certainly evidence to suggest May was the Twins best starter in that rotation at the time of demotion. Got to look past ERA which is dependent on so many things outside a pitchers control.  Kind of like in hitting and BA.  The Dodgers don't even use BA, as a stand alone stat, to evaluate batters performance anymore according to MLB Network's conversation with team leadership. We have the ability to evaluate players in better ways now.

 

He certainly wasn't the 6th best option.Having him in the rotation was better for now AND the long term.

 

 

Edited July 24, 2015 by jimmer

[wickedslider]

I certainly don't think the Twins should deplete their farm system nor give up a guy like Gibson for help this year. Especially for a guy like Tulowitski. If we were a player away from being great, that is one thing. But we still have holes at C, SS, Relief Pitching, and a lack of power and consistency in the lineup and I don't see us fixing all of those situations on a permanent basis by the trade deadline.

The only move I could see is if they could get some relief help to help close out the games they lead so as to help the players maintain confidence. But again, I wouldn't sell the farm to get it.

[Shane Wahl]

I would prefer that Brandon Peterson gets a chance before trying out Nick Burdi (I thought, for sure, that 2015 was totally out of the question for him!).

 

Arcia needs to be up. I am tired of hearing "he needs to play every day" and yada, yada, yada. Not on a contending team.

[Platoon]

So many needs and only one Duensing to trade.

But it's Duensing! You should be able to fill SS, Catcher, and the BP with just one Duensing.

[Platoon]

Yet, I fear that there were worse options than Suzuki--especially when I'm convinced that the Twins would have selected said "worse option".  I envision a promotion (and rotation) of the Twins MiL catchers all year long!  The anticipated collective OPS (averaged) of those "Twins Catchers" is less than .500!  Whew!!--though it would have permitted another Stauffer-like RP contract!  HMMM.

Well, you have a point. Kurts current OPS is .589, way over that .500! Of course his lofty 19% throw out rate is also a plus! . .

[Otto von Ballpark]

My theory is that Duensing's first career DL stint this year was related to some kind of cloning effort.

[drjim]

 

Sorry, I need to repost this:When May was demoted out of the rotation, he had the highest WAR of any starter in that rotation (still does. Pelfrey has half of what May has).  He had the best FIP of any starter in that rotation (better than Pelfrey by a full run). He also struck out the most per 9IP of any starter in that rotation (3.5 more than Pelfrey per 9IP) while still being 2nd in least amount of BB per 9IP (2nd to Hughes and his .87 walks per 9IP)  All this while having still having the worst luck of any pitcher in that rotation on balls in play (.341).  We understand how fluky BABIP is right?  Danny Santana does.

 

There is certainly evidence to suggest May was the Twins best starter in that rotation at the time of demotion. Got to look past ERA which is dependent on so many things outside a pitchers control.  Kind of like in hitting and BA.  The Dodgers don't even use BA, as a stand alone stat, to evaluate batters performance anymore according to MLB Network's conversation with team leadership. We have the ability to evaluate players in better ways now.

 

He certainly wasn't the 6th best option.Having him in the rotation was better for now AND the long term.

 

He was also last in innings per start, and it wasn't close. That tells me as much, if not more, about how he was pitching at the time and how the Twins coaches wanted to use him. They protected him, which inflated his advanced metrics. You say the Dodgers don't use BA, good for them, I also assure you they don't care about FIP or WAR for a pitcher, much more nuanced and thorough analysis.

 

If you want him ahead of Pelfrey or Milone I wouldn't argue too much, but no chance you would take him ahead of Hughes, GIbson or Santana at that point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He was also last in innings per start, and it wasn't close. That tells me as much, if not more, about how he was pitching at the time and how the Twins coaches wanted to use him. They protected him, which inflated his advanced metrics. You say the Dodgers don't use BA, good for them, I also assure you they don't care about FIP or WAR for a pitcher, much more nuanced and thorough analysis.

 

If you want him ahead of Pelfrey or Milone I wouldn't argue too much, but no chance you would take him ahead of Hughes, GIbson or Santana at that point.

I have to agree with this on some level. May was quite good but he struggled to go deep into games.

 

May went 7 innings in a start twice.

 

Kyle Gibson has gone 8 innings three times and 7 innings four times.

 

Phil Hughes has also gone 8 innings three times and 7 innings four times.

 

That counts for a lot, especially when you're talking about a team with as questionable a bullpen as the Twins.

 

With that said, notice I didn't include Milone or Pelfrey on this list.

[jimmer]

 

He was also last in innings per start, and it wasn't close. That tells me as much, if not more, about how he was pitching at the time and how the Twins coaches wanted to use him. They protected him, which inflated his advanced metrics. You say the Dodgers don't use BA, good for them, I also assure you they don't care about FIP or WAR for a pitcher, much more nuanced and thorough analysis.

 

If you want him ahead of Pelfrey or Milone I wouldn't argue too much, but no chance you would take him ahead of Hughes, GIbson or Santana at that point.

You don't think Friedman cares about FIP and WAR?  Really?  That would be new. Though I agree they have more advanced info we get to see, he certainly does care about what the pitcher himself is responsible for when evaluating pitcher performance.  Something FIP does much better than ERA ever could. He certainly isn't caring about what the defense does or blaming the pitcher for extreme BABIP when evaluating pitcher performance.

 

Think they care about Ks and BBs?

[Brock Beauchamp]

You don't think Friedman cares about FIP and WAR? Really? That would be new. Though I agree they have more advanced info we get to see, he certainly does care about what the pitcher himself is responsible for when evaluating pitcher performance. Something FIP does much better than ERA ever could. He certainly isn't caring about what the defense does or blaming the pitcher for extreme BABIP when evaluating pitcher performance.

 

Think they care about Ks and BBs?

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Friedman didn't give a rat's ass about WAR or FIP. He's working with stats we don't even realize exist.

[USAFChief]

 

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Friedman didn't give a rat's ass about WAR or FIP. He's working with stats we don't even realize exist.

If forced to bet, I'd bet there isn't a GM in the game using WAR to make decisions.

 

Particularly for pitchers.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If forced to bet, I'd bet there isn't a GM in the game using WAR to make decisions.

 

Particularly for pitchers.

Not to make decisions, no. Glancing at the number while evaluating, I think there's probably a few who do that.

[jimmer]

 

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Friedman didn't give a rat's ass about WAR or FIP. He's working with stats we don't even realize exist.

as far as batters go, here's what they say.

 

 

Said Schebler: “They don’t look at average.”

Said fellow Triple-A callup Kiké Hernandez, who has stuck in the majors: “They definitely don’t.”

The things the Dodgers look at, the ‘real predictors,’ are exit velocities, weighted Runs Created (wRC+), weighted on-base average (wOBA), strikeout-walk ratios, first-pitch strike percentage, 1-1 count strike percentage, swing percentage on strikes and chase rate on balls.'

 

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/kapler-665814-dodgers-schebler.html

 

apprently they don't care too  much about RBI or numbers w/RISP

 

This season, then, has been an experiment in how to break through the resistance.

“You’re disappointed because you don’t have a lot of RBI?” Kapler said he and his staff tell Dodgers minor leaguers who rely on old-fashioned numbers as barometers. “Who do you have getting on base in front of you?

‘Well, my batting average with runners in scoring position is blah-blah-blah.’

“Well, look at Allen Craig’s batting average with runners in scoring position two years ago and last year. That’s a number that fluctuates wildly.”

 

The overall point is, a traditional stat like ERA isn't going to be (or shouldn't be)a determining factor.  There are more advanced ways of looking at things.  The peripherals showed May to be the advanced pitcher by a good margin.  Friedman and his crew talked about using FIP during his time in TB.  They had moved past  ERA. How much FIP was factored compared to other stats unavailable to us (or still is) that's the question.  

 

When we debate we can only use stats available to us.  And the stats we have to evaluate pitchers when determining whether or not the right decision was made says it was the wrong decision by a good size margin.  If we are going to talk about hypothetical stats that we can't see being used by the FO, and assume they always go by them to make their decisions, let's stop debating all stats (traditional and and newer stats) and just defer to the FO and say they always make the right personnel calls.  We can say something like, 'Yeah, most or all the peripherals and advanced stats say it was the wrong move, but there are stats I don't know about and can't see that backs up our FO's decision and I'll use that the defend the decision.That would make some very happy.

 

We can only use what's available to us.

 

Edited July 25, 2015 by jimmer

[drjim]

I think you are making points no one is really disputing.

 

I just don't think the Dodgers waste much thought on stats that are as simple and flawes as FIP or pitching WAR.

 

And what is important in that article is you only read about the output from a player, the stuff that is shared with them in instruction. The front office is going far past that in evaluation.

[drjim]

I have to agree with this on some level. May was quite good but he struggled to go deep into games.

 

May went 7 innings in a start twice.

 

Kyle Gibson has gone 8 innings three times and 7 innings four times.

 

Phil Hughes has also gone 8 innings three times and 7 innings four times.

 

That counts for a lot, especially when you're talking about a team with as questionable a bullpen as the Twins.

 

With that said, notice I didn't include Milone or Pelfrey on this list.

I also didn't say Milone and Pelfrey were better than May. But it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins prioritized innings in the immediate future.

 

But with that said no chance they don't think May has the most upside in the future. I just don't think there is much of a gap in present performance between the three. I also think something else will shake out at the deadline.

[jimmer]

 

Not to make decisions, no. Glancing at the number while evaluating, I think there's probably a few who do that.

not to mention still using info that is used in creating the WAR stat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And what is important in that article is you only read about the output from a player, the stuff that is shared with them in instruction. The front office is going far past that in evaluation.

You think the Dodgers are sharing wOBA with minor league players, but holding more detailed stuff back for evaluation?  That has it backwards.  wOBA, FIP, etc. are the like the grades on the top of the paper.  What is beneficial to the students/players are the explanations in the margins, of how that grade was arrived at.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You think the Dodgers are sharing wOBA with minor league players, but holding more detailed stuff back for evaluation? That has it backwards. wOBA, FIP, etc. are the like the grades on the top of the paper. What is beneficial to the students/players are the explanations in the margins, of how that grade was arrived at.

I think the Dodgers share easy to digest stats. I suspect most of their internal stars are not so easy to digest. The coaches probably know them but I imagine the coaches take those stats and use them to, you know, coach and stuff.

 

But I'm just speculating here. I don't see a benefit to presenting a wall of numbers to a player. Not that players are stupid or anything, I just don't see the benefit in it.

 

It's the same principle I use when explaining technical issues to a project manager or client. I explain the bare minimum needed to help them understand the situation but don't overwhelm them with data because that's not their job. It's mine.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He was also last in innings per start, and it wasn't close. That tells me as much, if not more, about how he was pitching at the time and how the Twins coaches wanted to use him. They protected him, which inflated his advanced metrics.

May had 2 starts this year where he was removed early under special circumstances: at 51 pitches for injury, and at 30 pitches for extreme ineffectiveness.  Those games happened, but they don't really tell us anything about how the Twins wanted to use him.  May also has the fewest starts of any of our regular starters, so those short starts are influencing his average greater.  (May also was injured during spring training, and made his season debut later than any of our other regular starters, which might be skewing the numbers, especially given May's smaller number of starts.)

 

Put those two starts aside, and May is within 1 out per GS of Gibson, and within 2 outs per GS of Hughes who far and away leads our staff in this measure.

[Linus]

Meanwhile, back at the topic....the Twins can certainly be serious about 2015 while protecting the future.

 

I would give up valuable prospects for a longish term solution at catcher.  That benefits us now and later.

 

I would also aggressively trade decent prospects who are likely 40 man casualties for bullpen help.  Even better if said help is not a rental.  If there were enough 40 man casualties left over after that, I wouldn't be adverse to a rental SS who is really good with the glove.

 

This type of approach helps in 2015 without hindering the future - it doesn't have to be an either / or proposition.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

I think the Dodgers share easy to digest stats. I suspect most of their internal stars are not so easy to digest.

But sharing wOBA with a minor league player is almost meaningless.  It's akin to the final grade of their performance.  What you selectively share with the player are the components which hold keys to improving their grade: spray charts, heatmaps, zone/count stats, etc.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But sharing wOBA with a minor league player is almost meaningless. It's akin to the final grade of their performance. What you selectively share with the player are the components which hold keys to improving their grade: spray charts, heatmaps, zone/count stats, etc.

Ah, we're talking about different things. I consider heat maps and spray charts to be player evaluation tools, not stats. I suspect those are shared with players because they give real insight into approach, not a number.

 

So we're not really disagreeing here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

You say the Dodgers don't use BA, good for them, I also assure you they don't care about FIP or WAR for a pitcher, much more nuanced and thorough analysis.

Are you claiming the Twins have some advanced metric, that goes well beyond our puny FIP components, that says Pelfrey is better in the rotation right now than May?

 

Is this the same metric that said it was a good idea to keep Correia in the rotation until August last year, at which point the metric must have magically flipped to the opposite conclusion as soon as we found another team willing to take his salary and perhaps promise him a few starts?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ah, we're talking about different things. I consider heat maps and spray charts to be player evaluation tools, not stats. I suspect those are shared with players because they give real insight into approach, not a number.

So we're not really disagreeing here.

Those are just the things I could name.  The Dodgers could have advanced evaluation metrics based on those tools, which they in effect share with the player who could improve by it.

 

I just took issue with the idea they'd share a generalized stat like wOBA (or FIP) and essentially withhold the more meaningful components.  Seems to have it reversed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Those are just the things I could name.  The Dodgers could have advanced evaluation metrics based on those tools, which they in effect share with the player who could improve by it.

 

I just took issue with the idea they'd share a generalized stat like wOBA (or FIP) and essentially withhold the more meaningful components.  Seems to have it reversed.

Got it. Yeah, I agree with your take. Giving a player a number doesn't make sense. Giving a coach a number (who is more likely to have an understanding of how to apply and improve that number) makes sense.

 

Giving the player specific stats/tools to monitor approach, swing, etc. makes a lot more sense from the player's perspective.