Article: How Serious Are The Twins About 2015?

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's one thing to not be serious, it's another thing to just go through the motions when you're in playoff position in late July. So far, they've mostly treated this bullpen like it was 2014 or 2013, like if we just let Roenicke, Burton, and Boyer finish the season, we'll be doing them a solid on their future contract chances...

In no way was I defending their current roster but I think you knew that.

[spinowner]

 

I don't think there's anything wrong with this title. It's a legitimate question and there are doubts whether the Twins SHOULD be serious about 2015.

I don't think they should be that serious about this season. Make moves but only if they don't cost valuable prospects or they help the next few years as well. I'd lose my **** if they traded somebody like Kepler for Price.

I'll take a slightly different tack. It's not whether the Twins should be serious, it's what they should be serious about.

They should be serious about what this season was all about in the first place: continuing to rebuild the team and develop the organization's top prospects with the goal of producing a perennial contender beginning in 2016 or 2017. This is what TR was brought in to do after the 2011 season and he should stay the course. This year's team's good record, or at least it's good record during May, is a happy accident, a pleasant surprise. Don't let that delude you into thinking that we should pull out all the stops to win this year. The goal is to field a team that will make all the other teams worry every time we face them. We are well on our way to that and we don't want to mess it up with this distraction.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In no way was I defending their current roster but I think you knew that.

Yeah, I know.  Wasn't really directed at you, but just expounding on what "serious" should mean in this context.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'll take a slightly different tack. It's not whether the Twins should be serious, it's what they should be serious about.

They should be serious about what this season was all about in the first place: continuing to rebuild the team and develop the organization's top prospects with the goal of producing a perennial contender beginning in 2016 or 2017. This is what TR was brought in to do after the 2011 season and he should stay the course. This year's team's good record, or at least it's good record during May, is a happy accident, a pleasant surprise. Don't let that delude you into thinking that we should pull out all the stops to win this year. The goal is to field a team that will make all the other teams worry every time we face them. We are well on our way to that and we don't want to mess it up with this distraction.

Well said.

[James]

 

You don't pull him. You sell high, just once! PLEASE!

1. You don't know that they aren't trying to trade Pelfrey.

2. If you think Pelfrey is starting to come back to earth and isn't going to be worth much, why would other teams not know this as well?

 

I'm not saying they shouldn't try to trade Pelfrey.  I definitely think the Twins need to move him.  But I also think that it might be a little premature to say that the Twins are not trying to sell high on him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'll take a slightly different tack. It's not whether the Twins should be serious, it's what they should be serious about.

They should be serious about what this season was all about in the first place: continuing to rebuild the team and develop the organization's top prospects with the goal of producing a perennial contender beginning in 2016 or 2017. This is what TR was brought in to do after the 2011 season and he should stay the course. This year's team's good record, or at least it's good record during May, is a happy accident, a pleasant surprise. Don't let that delude you into thinking that we should pull out all the stops to win this year. The goal is to field a team that will make all the other teams worry every time we face them. We are well on our way to that and we don't want to mess it up with this distraction.

 

He was brought in to take 6 years to make them a contender?

 

so Houston was stupid to acquire Kazmir? If the Cubs go get help, they will also be stupid for trying to contend earlier than planned?

Edited July 24, 2015 by mike wants wins

[drjim]

 

so you think they believe that Pelfrey is a better starter than May, that Santana is a better SS than other options, and that this bullpen would not be better with Duffey, Berrios, Rogers, Tonkin, Achter replacing even 1 guy?

 

that May and Graham should be babied in the bullpen, and not used in place of other, lesser, options?

 

Pelfrey/May - close enough to not make a huge difference and make the decision defensible

 

Santana - best option unless someone comes from the outside

 

Relievers - probably not better unless someone comes in from the outside. If they want to swap someone for Boyer that would be fine, but not team altering.

 

May should probably be used ahead of Boyer, but it's still early and May hasn't exactly demanded the role in his limited opportunities so far

[drjim]

 

I don't think there's anything wrong with this title. It's a legitimate question and there are doubts whether the Twins SHOULD be serious about 2015.

I don't think they should be that serious about this season. Make moves but only if they don't cost valuable prospects or they help the next few years as well. I'd lose my **** if they traded somebody like Kepler for Price.

 

That is a different question than what is raised in the article.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He was brought in to take 6 years to make them a contender?

 

so Houston was stupid to acquire Kazmir? If the Cubs go get help, they will also be stupid for trying to contend earlier than planned?

1. This is Ryan's fourth season as GM.

 

2. Houston and Chicago are in better spots to compete, at least in my opinion they are.

 

That doesn't mean the Twins should fold but I do think temperance is in order.

[Mike Sixel]

 

1. This is Ryan's fourth season as GM.

2. Houston and Chicago are in better spots to compete, at least in my opinion they are.

That doesn't mean the Twins should fold but I do think temperance is in order.

 

And he said compete in 2017.....that would be, 6 years.

 

plans change, sometimes you jump up faster than you thought. His contention was that the plan was for 2016-7, so don't do anything this year.

Edited July 24, 2015 by mike wants wins

[SwainZag]

 

And he said compete in 2017.....that would be, 6 years.

 

plans change, sometimes you jump up faster than you thought. His contention was that the plan was for 2016-7, so don't do anything this year.

 

I think he probably meant don't do anything that would sacrifice a lot towards those teams of 16-17 when your top prospects would be in their 2nd and 3rd years......but just how I took it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And he said compete in 2017.....that would be, 6 years.

 

plans change, sometimes you jump up faster than you thought. His contention was that the plan was for 2016-7, so don't do anything this year.

Ah, got it. IMO, a six year rebuild is too long. A good rebuild should take 4-5 seasons. This year was a pleasant surprise but I'd be mighty disappointed if 2016 didn't look better.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1. You don't know that they aren't trying to trade Pelfrey.

2. If you think Pelfrey is starting to come back to earth and isn't going to be worth much, why would other teams not know this as well?

 

I'm not saying they shouldn't try to trade Pelfrey.  I definitely think the Twins need to move him.  But I also think that it might be a little premature to say that the Twins are not trying to sell high on him.

Agreed there was no real "sell high" opportunity for Pelfrey.

 

And I do think they are trying/willing to sell him, but part of the problem is they are letting that process dictate their usage of him and May.

 

If it's 2014 and we're not going anywhere, all right, keep Correia in the rotation until you can send him elsewhere in August.  Not how I'd run a rebuilding season, but whatever.  But 2015, when you've got a top 5 record in the league?  You've got to have a better plan to deploy your assets than what they've done with Pelfrey and May the past month.

[cmb0252]

ESPN (insider) has an article up trying to figure out which team could help their playoff hunt with a move using the following method:

 

To get an idea of which teams have the highest-leverage wins remaining, I instructed ZiPS to simulate the rest of the season a million times to get up-to-date playoff odds for each team. Then, I repeated the exercise 60 times, each time adding one or two wins to a team's bottom line to see how the change affected the playoff odds. By doing this, we can more easily see which teams have the most to gain from a big-name addition. Incidentally, these playoff odds include the Kazmir trade, boosting the Astros' playoff probability by 7 percentage points from Thursday morning.

 

With one move the article suggests the Twins could increase their chance of making it into the playoffs by 7.2% (4th highest change percent). I have never been much of a ZiPS person but it is interesting.

 

I understand not wanting to trade prospects for rentals but for long term help when there is no current answer in the farm? That I can't understand.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/13312117/teams-most-gain-trade-deadline

[drjim]

Small point but it is one win not one move that would increase the odds.

 

For reference Norris and Segura would each add a half win going forward

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

so you think they believe that Pelfrey is a better starter than May, that Santana is a better SS than other options, and that this bullpen would not be better with Duffey, Berrios, Rogers, Tonkin, Achter replacing even 1 guy?

 

that May and Graham should be babied in the bullpen, and not used in place of other, lesser, options?

 

I like May, and I think long term he's a better option.  The reality though is that in terms of runs being allowed, Pelfrey has been a better pitcher, even after these last few rather poor outings.  The long term out look in me says that we need to get May those innings.  Short term (though if Pelfrey keeps laying eggs in his outings that will change too), but winning now, I can see (though I don't agree with) why it is that Pelfrey is in the rotation.  Hopefully, he or Millone is traded in a week or two and that renders this moot.

[Halsey Hall]

How Serious Are The Twins About 2015?

 

Not real serious. Can they maintain their current pace - maybe, but doubtful. It's possible they can hold on to 2nd place a long ways behind KC. I can see TR trying to bolster the pen but that's about it. The future looks bright and thoughts will be toward spring training.  I'll stick with my prediction of last year where 2018 will be the first year of a powerhouse in Minnesota. 

[Mike Sixel]

2018? Wow.....

[Platoon]

I don't think there's anything wrong with this title. It's a legitimate question and there are doubts whether the Twins SHOULD be serious about 2015.

I don't think they should be that serious about this season. Make moves but only if they don't cost valuable prospects or they help the next few years as well. I'd lose my **** if they traded somebody like Kepler for Price.

I wish I could double, super duper, like this! This team is about 60% to where they need to be. And as Arcia, Buxton, Hicks, Dozier, Plouffe, Rosario, Sano, are showing us, they will need some acclimation time. You might as well bite the bullet and start it, and end up where they can or can't take you. IMNSHO, adding a RP or a catcher, or a SS will not do it. All three would of course, but at what cost. Trading our young talent, for someone else's declining talent, with either a big contract, or a rental player would cause me to lose whatever Brock meant by **** also.

[SwainZag]

 

How Serious Are The Twins About 2015?

 

Not real serious. Can they maintain their current pace - maybe, but doubtful. It's possible they can hold on to 2nd place a long ways behind KC. I can see TR trying to bolster the pen but that's about it. The future looks bright and thoughts will be toward spring training.  I'll stick with my prediction of last year where 2018 will be the first year of a powerhouse in Minnesota. 

 

I tend to agree with you.  I am hoping that 2016 and 2017 they are competitive and force their way into the playoffs, but I like 2018 of being a true powerhouse team.

[Winston Smith]

So many needs and only one Duensing to trade.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

They could still win the wildcard this year... They have three major weaknesses, and yet here they are with a lead in the wild card standings. If they can address two of those weaknesses by getting league average performance, they'd be in great shape.... 

 

Even something like adding one RP and AJ Pierzynski could make a playoff series in MN this year a much more likely scenario. Neither one (or both) should cost all that much.

 

I 100% agree that the next few years will be a better team than this year's squad, but any time you can make the playoffs, you've got a puncher's chance of winning it all - the playoffs are pretty crazy.

[Vanimal46]

Man I'm not sure how we can be so confident that a powerhouse is coming in 3 years...

[Buford_T_Justice]

I don't think Pelfrey goes anywhere except the bullpen. Give him a chance to show value and then see if  we can get anything for him at the August deadline.

 

Have to wonder what Mauer thinks about our catcher woes...

[cmb0252]

Man I'm not sure how we can be so confident that a powerhouse is coming in 3 years...

You do know every prospect hits their ceiling right? Our 25 man roster is going to be nuts! Can't you imagine ABW hitting 40+ HRs....from the bench!

[Kwak]

 

I don't think there's anything wrong with this title. It's a legitimate question and there are doubts whether the Twins SHOULD be serious about 2015.

I don't think they should be that serious about this season. Make moves but only if they don't cost valuable prospects or they help the next few years as well. I'd lose my **** if they traded somebody like Kepler for Price.

...and you should!  Because that trade is way favorable for the Twins.  Kepler is not irreplaceable--and will do nothing this year.  Price, OTOH, would be a huge improvement to the rotation.  Price would make the Twins a favorite to Win the wild-card playoff game and get to the ALCS--with three bonafide starters!  But, this trade will never  happen  because DET can get much more for Price that Kepler.

[troyhobbs]

I'd be pretty disappointed to see the Twins not try to get better by the deadline. They don't have to make the boldest trades or blow up their farm system to do that. They have a glut of cream rising to the top and they're not going to have roster spots for them all in a couple/few years anyway. Not sure what the metrics were on the 87 and 91 teams but I know they weren't the most talented teams on paper. Seems like a lot of folks advocating throwing in the towel even though they've got the 5th best record in the AL.

[Brock Beauchamp]

...and you should! Because that trade is way favorable for the Twins. Kepler is not irreplaceable--and will do nothing this year. Price, OTOH, would be a huge improvement to the rotation. Price would make the Twins a favorite to Win the wild-card playoff game and get to the ALCS--with three bonafide starters! But, this trade will never happen because DET can get much more for Price that Kepler.

The Wild Card game is basically a coin flip, which is why I don't like it. With or without Price, Houston vs Minnesota in a winner take all game is not a matchup that instills confidence.

[Kwak]

 

I tend to agree with you.  I am hoping that 2016 and 2017 they are competitive and force their way into the playoffs, but I like 2018 of being a true powerhouse team.

A whole lot of bad things can happen--Tigers this year for example.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A whole lot of bad things can happen--Tigers this year for example.

It wasn't hard to see the 2015 Tigers coming. Each year, they're relying more on players who are no longer young.

 

I posted this (and several other posts like it) in January and February this year:

 

But given the potential age issues with Verlander, Miggy, and Martinez, it's not hard to imagine the Tigers' 2015 looking a lot like the Twins' 2011. The Twins completely collapsed that season and they were younger than the Tigers are going into this season.

 

That kind of collapse is unlikely but given how many of the Tigers' key players are over 30, it's not unimaginable that they could crash hard and fast.

The Tigers didn't crash but they're not far from that point, either. They got old in a hurry and their window is officially closed.