Article: How Serious Are The Twins About 2015?

[Nick Nelson]

Major League Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline is one week away. Within the next seven days, we should get a pretty clear idea of just how much the front office believes in this year's club, and how serious they are about making a legitimate push.

 

This will be dictated not only by Terry Ryan's activity on the trade market, but also by some internal maneuvers that would indicate the urgency of pushing for a postseason berth this season.The most obvious opportunity to improve the club is in the rotation, where Mike Pelfrey has been flat-out terrible and multiple talented young starters are in line to make an impact. In mid-June, Pelfrey was on top of the world following a run of match-ups against weak offenses (Pittsburgh, Boston, Milwaukee) that lowered his ERA to an eye-popping 2.28.

 

Since then, however, Pelfrey has looked much like the mediocre hurler that his unimpressive peripherals and lengthy track record would suggest. Over his past seven starts, he's 0-5 with a 6.87 ERA and 16-to-14 K/BB ratio in 38 innings. Opponents have mashed him to the tune of .365/.417/.528 during that span.

 

It's somewhat unfair to pile on a guy during his worst stretch of the season -- and in fairness his overall ERA is still below 4 -- but Pelfrey's latest outing in Anaheim was indicative of what you can expect from him on any given night. He wasn't necessarily terrible, and his defense didn't help him out much leading to two unearned runs, but he allowed too much contact, gave up hits in bunches, and wasn't saved by the double plays that he has grown so desperately dependent upon.

 

Pelf could have some value to a sub-.500 club that simply needs a guy to eat innings while treading water, but for a team like the Twins that is in the race and has blatantly superior options in the wings, he's a liability.

 

Sliding Trevor May, who was arguably the team's best starter before being demoted to the bullpen, back into a starting role would be the easy move. The bolder move would be promoting Jose Berrios, who fired seven scoreless innings in Rochester on Thursday. Either switch would signal that the Twins are ready to put their chips on the table and make a run.

 

There are several other areas where Ryan and Co. can make some quick fixes to improve the product on the field. One is installing Eduardo Escobar as full-time starter at shortstop. Another would be calling Oswaldo Arcia back up to the majors; the slugger has been crushing for weeks in Triple-A and Eddie Rosario is hitting .258/.269/.348 with 17 strikeouts and one walk in the month of July. How about bumping Blaine Boyer in favor of Michael Tonkin?

 

There are other steps the organization could take to set up potential reinforcements down the line. For instance, Nick Burdi has been lights out in Ft. Myers since being demoted at the beginning of the month, with 18 strikeouts and zero walks in 13 innings. Quickly getting him back up to Chattanooga would create an opportunity for the 22-year-old fireballer to put together a strong month at Double-A and join the big-league bullpen in September.

 

There are a lot of considerations in play, such as patiently developing young talent and in some cases (possibly Burdi and Arcia) sending a message. But how do the Twins balance that with trying to put the best possible team on the field over these final two months?

 

It will be interesting to see how everything plays out.

 

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[drjim]

You need to make up your mind: Pelfrey went from flat out terrible to mediocre to not terrible and hurt by his defense in only three paragraphs.

 

And May was not the best starter for the Twins before the demotion, arguably or otherwise.

Edited July 24, 2015 by drjim

[Nick Nelson]

Pelfrey has been flat-out terrible over the last few weeks. He is mediocre overall, in part because he relies way too much on his defense since he strikes no one out. 

 

May had the best fielding-independent stats of anyone in the rotation, so yes, some could make that argument (and have). 

[beckmt]

Buying some bullpen help would make a difference. Santana has no place in Rochester to play

Using Polanco as a trade chip makes sense as he is probably a better second baseman than SS. Using Dozier as part of a Tulo package is bold, smart?

[Winston Smith]

I tend to think Terry will make a half ass attempt to improve the team because that is his track record.

Is there a Terry 2.0 that will do something bold and really make a strong move? I doubt it but I'd like to see it once.

[drjim]

 

I tend to think Terry will make a half ass attempt to improve the team because that is his track record.
Is there a Terry 2.0 that will do something bold and really make a strong move? I doubt it but I'd like to see it once.

 

What is half ass in your mind? If they added a bullpen arm and backup catcher type (which is what I would advocate) is that half ass or prudent?

[snarkerbarnyard]

I think Berrios needs to be up with the big club in some capacity. He's proved he can help the Twins, so why not let him show us what he's got in the bullpen? Also, trade Pelfrey for a bag of balls, or have him switch spots with May. He's pitched himself out if a rotation spot.

[HitInAPinch]

I don't believe for a second that the Twins are a playoff caliber team.  The consistent hitting and fielding just isn't there.  I'm thinking the series starting tonight against the Yankees should seal the issue for the front office.

 

I've advocated rotating MiLB players in and out of the MLB team to get a better feel of what they've got and what then need to work on. 

 

 

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Pelfrey seems like an August 31st (waiver) deal waiting to happen. The Twins should be able to get a B-level prospect for him if they are able to entice a desparate team still in the playoff hunt needing pitching (Toronto, Cubs, Baltimore). It be hard-pressed to trade him in July.

 

Once Pelfrey's gone, May should jump back into the rotation.

 

Duffey and either Tonkin or Achter should be up with the Twins sometime in August to help with the bullpen. Berrios could be a September call up, but he needs at least three more starts like last night in AAA to warrant a promotion.

 

Hopefully Buxton can rehab in AAA in August and  be back up in September. I disagree on the Rosario-Arcia swap. Rosario has held his own for over two months now and brings better defense than Arcia. Arcia can be a September call up and provide a power bat to pinch hit.

 

Totally agree on Escobar at short. The job should have been his out of spring training. I would keep Polanco in AAA.

[Blake]

Standing pat is better than a knee-jerk farm team stripping trade.

 

Twins can play the year with who they have, unless they get a great deal on a catcher or relief pitcher and then look at the free-agent market this winter.

[Mike Sixel]

Given the continued use of the BP arms, Santana at SS, and Pelfrey in the rotation, I'd say they aren't all that serious about winning this year. Or, they are super wrong. I'd prefer to think they are not serious, than to think they think Pelfrey is better than May, that this BP is good, and that Danny Santana is a MLB player right now.

[Kwak]

 

What is half ass in your mind? If they added a bullpen arm and backup catcher type (which is what I would advocate) is that half ass or prudent?

That's half-ass. 

If the twins are only interested in half-ass moves (which include rearranging chairs (Escobar, Tonkin, Arcia) then it becomes clear to all that the goal for 2015 is simply to:  1) not lose 90  2) play meaningful games in September and 3) hope to catch lightning in a bottle.  This would permit the front office to dance a jig and claim "we're on the 'right' path, and extend our contracts".  The management needs to accept that some players may never duplicate this season's performance and to take full advantage of the Month of May's capture of lightning in a bottle and drive to the playoffs.  The addition of one true impact player (a hitter) or a decided improvement in the rotation (a veteran), and then hope that Berrios can be really effective in one-inning spots as a member of the bullpen.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think Berrios needs to be up with the big club in some capacity. He's proved he can help the Twins, so why not let him show us what he's got in the bullpen? 

 

I'm a huge Berrios guy, but how has he proven that he can help the Twins?  He should be really good down the road and he might be able to do something for the Twins down the stretch, but I don't know that he's proven that. 

 

Duffey has put up better numbers in AAA and I think that would be a bold move to bring him up in the bullpen, much less to start.

 

I'd love to see Berrios up, but there's no way to know how ready he is, or more so, how he would do.

[halfchest]

May was especially on a role before the demotion and was a bummer to see him demoted.  At the same time I don't know how you pull Pelfrey at that time as I believe he still had a sub 3.00 ERA, peripherals be damned.  That said, now there is plenty of evidence that the luster has wore off, hoping after the next trip through the rotation they make the switch. 

[jimmer]

When May was demoted out of the rotation, he had the highest WAR of any starter in that rotation (still does).  He had the best FIP of any starter in that rotation. He also struck out the most per 9IP of any starter in that rotation while still being 2nd in least amount of BB per 9IP (2nd to Hughes and his .87 walks per 9IP)  All this while having still having the worst luck of any pitcher in that rotation on balls in play.  We understand how fluky BABIP is right?  Danny Santana does.

 

There is certainly evidence to suggest he was the Twins best starter in that rotation at the time of demotion.

 

I can't imagine an argument that would suggest he was the worst starter we had that wouldn't make me laugh my head clean off :-)

Edited July 24, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

Scott Kazmir was traded for two A-ball players that didn't rate in the Astros' top 20.

 

If Ryan can't move either Pelfrey or a prospect we don't care about for a middling relief pitcher, I consider that a failure.

 

Shortstop and catcher are a bit more difficult but it's not unreasonable to shore up at least one of those positions as well.

 

Ryan doesn't have to break open the farm to improve this team significantly. Given the below replacement level play we've seen at short and catcher, just getting competent players at one or more of those positions could have a big impact on this team.

[Mike Sixel]

In fairness, the catcher has shot up the prospect boards this year.....but ya, that last part is 100% true.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In fairness, the catcher has shot up the prospect boards this year.....but ya, that last part is 100% true.

They're not bad prospects, I was merely pointing out that Scott Kazmir, one of the most desirable starters available this July, was traded for two guys most Astros' fans didn't even realize existed in their system.

[James]

 

Pelfrey seems like an August 31st (waiver) deal waiting to happen. The Twins should be able to get a B-level prospect for him if they are able to entice a desparate team still in the playoff hunt needing pitching (Toronto, Cubs, Baltimore). It be hard-pressed to trade him in July.

 

I agree with you that Pelfrey seems like a August trade candidate.  I hope he TR can trade him for a relief pitcher.  That's my hope.  

 

I think you overestimating Pelfrey's value though.  There's no way he get's a B-level prospect by himself.  Scouts have said that Samardzija might only bring back a B-level prospect.  So, if you think Pelfrey can get a B-level guy, get ready for disappointment.  

[jimmer]

 

I agree with you that Pelfrey seems like a August trade candidate.  I hope he TR can trade him for a relief pitcher.  That's my hope.  

 

I think you overestimating Pelfrey's value though.  There's no way he get's a B-level prospect by himself.  Scouts have said that Samardzija might only bring back a B-level prospect.  So, if you think Pelfrey can get a B-level guy, get ready for disappointment.  

True about Pelfrey and B-level prospect return.

 

The part about Shark is because Shark is a FA next year and going to make a ton of money.  Also, any team trading for him couldn't make him a QO either.  So it's just two months of pitching and he's gone. Trading for Pelfrey has almost all the same issues, except the part where he's going to make a ton of money next year.

 

Not much at all to do with Shark's talent more to do with Shark definitely testing the FA market when he reaches FA and getting paid big.

Edited July 24, 2015 by jimmer

[woolywoolhouse]

Arcia needs to be on the major league roster in time to be considered part of the post-season roster. His left-handed power bat against either a strong righty starter or off-the-bench is a must for a deep post-season run. 

 

Though maybe the Twins will get to replace Santana with whomever once his suspension kicks in again for the post-season.

[Mike Sixel]

Pelfrey as an August trade guy means 5 more weeks on the roster, as a starter. No thanks. Just cut him or deal him now.

[halfchest]

MLBtradederumors mentioned the availability of some Tampa Bay relievers in Boxberger and McGee that could both be great for bolstering our bullpen both this year and in the future.  They might cost a bit more than we'd prefer to give up but might be worth it to solidify the backend of the bullpen. 

[jimbo92107]

At least you'd think they could swap Mike Pelfrey for Trevor May, and swap Danny Santana for Jorge Polanco. Both simple moves, both good chance of success.

 

Pelfrey at this point could be a good two-pitch reliever, while May could get back to his surprisingly good development into a solid starter. Santana could go back to AAA to work on fielding footwork, stealing bases and plate discipline, while Polanco potentially could provide a much more mature bat to a struggling lineup. Polanco's fielding is no worse than Santana's, and I recall from last season that Polanco is a better base stealer.

 

Other simple moves cost nothing, like bringing up Oswaldo Arcia to hit behind Sano against righties, replacing the good fielding but modest bat of Shane Robinson. From what I saw earlier this week, the Twins desperately need to get more power bats in their lineup. If I could figure out where to put Kennys Vargas and AB Walker, I'd get them in somewhere, too. It puts a lot more pressure on pitchers when you've got some bully boys in the order.

 

Other simple moves I expect are coming anyway, like replacing Blaine Boyer with JO Berrios, replacing Casey Fien with Michael Tonkin, and replacing Brian Duensing with Taylor Rogers.

 

I would much rather see the Twins work these inside moves than start trading away prospects for short term rentals or gutting the team for Troy Tulowitzky. Baseball is a show for our entertainment. Watching young guys develop into good ballplayers is very entertaining to me.

[jimmer]

'MLBtradederumors mentioned the availability of some Tampa Bay relievers in Boxberger and McGee that could both be great for bolstering our bullpen both this year and in the future.They might cost a bit more than we'd prefer to give up but might be worth it to solidify the backend of the bullpen.'

 

never trade quality position player prospects for relievers, especially middle relievers. And don;t trade with Tampa. Or the Nats.

Edited July 24, 2015 by jimmer

[Blake]

I notice people think we need to bring in a backup catcher.

 

Second look at Drew Butera? 

[jimmer]

 

I notice people think we need to bring in a backup catcher.

 

Second look at Drew Butera? 

I think we need to bring in a starting catcher.I think backup catcher is well filled. Our cup overflows with backup catcher talent.

Edited July 24, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What is half ass in your mind? If they added a bullpen arm and backup catcher type (which is what I would advocate) is that half ass or prudent?

If they are serious, this team probably needs more than 1 outside bullpen arm.  Or should have started evaluating internal bullpen arms more closely awhile ago.  Adding one at the deadline is half-assed.

 

Catcher you are probably right, not much they can do.  Although they may also need a corner OF, or an infielder if they don't trust Escobar -- again, letting the deadline pass without such an addition OR even evaluating your internal options seems half-assed.

 

For once, I'd like to see TR use his whole ass.  

[Blake]

 

I think we need to bring in a starting catcher.I think backup catcher is well filled. Our cup overflows with backup catcher talent.

I thought I'd get a response, just not that soon. 

[lukeduke1980]

Tonkin, ugh.  He's been Pelfrey painful to watch when he's been up