Article: The Duffey Dilemma

[kab21]

Part of a prospects development is building up the amount of innings instead of making a large jump in one year.  Berrios is at 114 IP right now.  If you promote him now then he will probably top out at 130IP after 140 last year.  That might lead to him getting shut down next year, tiring down the stretch or possibly even getting injured (if you subscribe to the Verducci Effect). 

 

But anyways his future is as a starter and potentially a very important one.  I am not interested in sidetracking him from that and as was said above he is potentially an option to be called up as a starter if anything happens.  once you get to September it is a benefit for him to get big league experience even if it is as a RP'er. 

[drjim]

 

But who gets replaced?  Unless it's another lefty, O'Rourke is probably staying.  May could get sent down, though that seems like a waste.  Graham is staying unless they Braves suddenly get generous.  To get a new lefty, Boyer has to be released.  To get two it absolutely needs to be Fien.

 

I also don't get the hesitation to use the unproven guys late in games.  The proven guys are proving not to be able to handle it. 

 

I'm not hesitant to use unproven guys if they are good. I just don't see it with the internal guys being mentioned outside of Duffey and Berrios, and I'm not calling up Berrios until late August unless he is replacing a starter.

 

For who to replace - I would say Boyer is DFAed, and then May is either sent back to AAA or Pelfrey is flipped and May is back in the rotation.

[Danchat]

Achter needs to be in the major league bullpen right now.  I'd also give some auditions to some of the other names mentioned earlier.

 

I also think it'd be wise to trade for a solid reliever and give up a non-top 20 prospect for him. (seriously, if Kazmir was that cheap for the Astros to get, we probably don't have to give up much to get a reliever, right?)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Part of a prospects development is building up the amount of innings instead of making a large jump in one year.  Berrios is at 114 IP right now.  If you promote him now then he will probably top out at 130IP after 140 last year.  That might lead to him getting shut down next year, tiring down the stretch or possibly even getting injured (if you subscribe to the Verducci Effect). 

 

But anyways his future is as a starter and potentially a very important one.  I am not interested in sidetracking him from that and as was said above he is potentially an option to be called up as a starter if anything happens.  once you get to September it is a benefit for him to get big league experience even if it is as a RP'er. 

 

verducci effect is bunk. 100% no evidence it is true......Also, 130-140 is what a minor leaguer can do. Not sure what you are even saying.

 

Plenty of other teams call up starters for a taste of the majors as a RP, then make them starters the next year. Even WS winners.....

[John Bonnes]

How the F can Duffey have only given up ONE home run in 123 innings this year?!? That's just nuts. Nineteen starts and one home run?

 

On the one hand, I think that's the very definition of unsustainable, especially because he gave up 17 last year. And it almost certainly a driving force for that 2ish ERA.

 

On the other hand, I just need to see this. Does he throw a medicine ball up there?

[Willihammer]

 

Part of a prospects development is building up the amount of innings instead of making a large jump in one year.  Berrios is at 114 IP right now.  If you promote him now then he will probably top out at 130IP after 140 last year.  That might lead to him getting shut down next year, tiring down the stretch or possibly even getting injured (if you subscribe to the Verducci Effect). 

 

But anyways his future is as a starter and potentially a very important one.  I am not interested in sidetracking him from that and as was said above he is potentially an option to be called up as a starter if anything happens.  once you get to September it is a benefit for him to get big league experience even if it is as a RP'er. 

Seems like a crackpot theory IMO but for sake of argument, say its true. The cost of setting back Berrios' workload in 2016 to ~150 IP (instead of ~170) seems like a reasonable tradeoff compared to trading away players, doesn't it? There are costs with any approach but from where I'm standing, promoting from within always looks like the best bargain.

[laloesch]

I think it makes a ton of sense to call up Duffey and or Achter. Duffey looks to have a future as a starter which potentially makes Milone expendable, but because he has significant bullpen experience makes him an attractive BP option now.

 

On the other hand letting May rot in the bullpen is a complete total waste of resources.  My persistent thinking is that the Twins are trying to move Pelfrey. And the key word is trying.  Big whiner / Mike is falling back to earth and it looks more and more like the Twins might be stuck with him the rest of the season.  If he continues to slump you have to bench him in favor or May.

Edited July 24, 2015 by laloesch

[Lonestar]

 

Of course the problem here is that the only BP guys on the active roster that can be sent down are May and O'Rourke, and they aren't actually a problem.

 

Graham isn't a problem either, other than the way they use him, but the club's biggest issue with him is his lack of experience, which by now he probably has as much or more of than most of the arms they would call up from AAA.

 

So we're back to the Boyer/Fein/Duensing issue, the guys who for some reason are at the same time the most trusted, and the biggest liabilities in the bullpen.  Trades or callups won't be beneficial or perhaps even possible until at least one, and hopefully two, are removed from the situation all together.  And I don't say that with any malice, I appreciate what each has done for this club in their time here.  It's time though, cords need to be cut.  If the Royals have the stones to cut ties with the much more accomplished Jason Frasor, the Twins should be able to do the same.

Well said.

 

Jettison Boyer, Fein, and Pelfrey and restore May to the rotation.

Put Duensing on a short leash in light of the last season and two/thirds. Listen to offers because Rodgers can replace him.

Trade for a good set up man at a price less than the Astros paid for Kazmir. 

Promote Tonkin, Duffey, Oliveros (if healthy) and Achter in that order, as spots become available. That means you don't have to wait for the trade. Let's see what we have for the future.

Use O'Rourke strictly as a LOOGY.

Call up Berrios and Rodgers on the last day to be playoff eligible.

[adorduan]

 

The real stubbornness might be in thinking Fien, Boyer et al are going to return to their previous levels of success, and that this will be good enough. Fortunately, we're hearing reports that this is not the thinking, but we'll see. The real dilemma is that none of these practically interchangeable pitchers- Duffey, Fien, Achter, Boyer, Oliveros, Thompson, Presley, O'Rourke, Duensing, Thielbar, Graham, May, Meyer, Rogers, Darnell, Tonkin- is adequate as a shutdown guy, a guy with sufficient command and control to consistently get you a key strikeout in late-inning situations.

 

Ryan needs to go outside the system for that right now. He's got a dozen internal candidates to choose from and they're all sub-optimal choices.

How do you know Duffey, Achter, O'Rourke and Rogers can be successful? They haven't even been given a chance yet.

[laloesch]

 

How do you know Duffey, Achter, O'Rourke and Rogers can be successful? They haven't even been given a chance yet.

 

 

I agree.  The Twins haven't even given Duffey, Achter, Rodgers, etc. a look yet and we have senior posters on here pronouncing these guys as substandard, AAAA's etc.  It's like, what the hell are you talking about?  They haven't even been given a chance yet and your already writing them off?  

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This seems to be accepted thought by a lot of fans but I just don't get it. If they're going to add Berrios to the roster in a month anyway, why wait? Is missing 4-5 August starts in AAA really going to delay his development that much? Seems dubious IMO.

 

Berrios doesn't need to be added this fall.  He was a 2012 pick out of HS.  He's not required.  He will be added when he's ready.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

verducci effect is bunk. 100% no evidence it is true......Also, 130-140 is what a minor leaguer can do. Not sure what you are even saying.

 

Plenty of other teams call up starters for a taste of the majors as a RP, then make them starters the next year. Even WS winners.....

 

Not sure if this is true or not, but I do know that a lot of teams subscribe to it.  Berrios needs to start and he needs to get more innings, I don't see the point of putting him in the pen.  I have a different opinion for the likes of Duffey and Rogers who are more of the 5th starter type and could use some ML pen experience.  But let's remember, these are minor leaguers.  I'm not quite certain they will be better than the guys they replace.

[Mike Sixel]

Debunking the Verducci effect......

 

http://deadspin.com/5985013/time-to-retire-the-verducci-effect-what-really-predicts-pitcher-injuries

 

Edited July 24, 2015 by mike wants wins

[SwainZag]

 

verducci effect is bunk. 100% no evidence it is true......Also, 130-140 is what a minor leaguer can do. Not sure what you are even saying.

 

Plenty of other teams call up starters for a taste of the majors as a RP, then make them starters the next year. Even WS winners.....

 

Any evidence it's bunk?  Verducci's pre-season writeups are usually pretty good.  He had 10 pitchers he red-flagged for the 2014 season based age and innings increase in 2013 and I think 7 of those 10 experienced some sort of arm trouble in 2014.  I'll try and find the article, but I am pretty sure most teams abide buy into the effect these days.

[Mike Sixel]

Look up 1 post......and there are more on the internet than just that one. Or, one below this one.....

Edited July 24, 2015 by mike wants wins

[Mike Sixel]

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2015-04-12/pitch-count-innings-limits-pitcher-injuries-study-tommy-john

 

[drjim]

Is there a study on effectiveness? The issue that comes up for building up innings is effectiveness later into games and later into the season, not just injuries. May is a great example, as he is building up innings he is far and away last in innings per start among Twins starters this year.

 

And what is proven from that study is that previous injuries are the best predictor of future injuries. But of course it says nothing about what can best prevent the first injury (but in Carleton's defense no one knows).

[SwainZag]

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2015-04-12/pitch-count-innings-limits-pitcher-injuries-study-tommy-john

 

No relation on innings and injuries but whatever general fatigue and numbers being down the year after?   I'd like to see something like that.

[Thrylos]

This is not a dilemma at all:

 

Does Duffy project as a top of the rotation pitcher?

Are there other starting pitcher who prospects who project higher than him?

 

(N and Y.)

 

So you make him a reliever (in Rochester) and hope he becomes a top line reliever (think Perkins) or trade him.   Cannot bring average prospects up and hope to win. 

 

As far as 2015 goes, May got dibs on the next rotation spot, and if they need another starter from the minors it will likely be Berrios, based on all the noise by the newspapers on Berrios these days.  That is the Twins' FO MO...  The writing is on the wall.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is not a dilemma at all:

 

Does Duffy project as a top of the rotation pitcher?

Are there other starting pitcher who prospects who project higher than him?

 

(N and Y.)

 

So you make him a reliever (in Rochester) and hope he becomes a top line reliever (think Perkins) or trade him. Cannot bring average prospects up and hope to win.

 

As far as 2015 goes, May got dibs on the next rotation spot, and if they need another starter from the minors it will likely be Berrios, based on all the noise by the newspapers on Berrios these days. That is the Twins' FO MO... The writing is on the wall.

I... actually agree with every word of this post. Well done on all counts.

[DocBauer]

Ok...completely off the wall...as are many of the liners given up by the bullpen...but what about Pelfrey and Milone both moved to teams needing rotation depth for a couple of relievers, put May back in the rotation where he belongs and shouldn't have been removed from in the first place...and bring up Duffey for the 5th spot to see what he could do? Rogers on deck, so to speak.

[Rosterman]

Fein, like Guerrier and Burton, is overstaying his welcome. Thre was the slim chance that he was going to be dynamite this year and a non-contending Twins team would flip him to a contender for a prospect. Not happening.

 

 

Boyer was one of those interesting projects. He is working hard because he wants to stay in the majors, give him credit for that. Is he replaceable. Sure. Are we doing anything about it? No.

 

Duensing, like Burton last September where he was closing games to drive up his own worth it seemed and not really necessary as he wasn't coming back...give those innings to someone who will be pitching for you the next year. Right now, I would accept offers on Duensing and move him along. There is no way he will resign next season, unless he totally tanks elsewhere and needs a job. We have Thielbar. We can look at Rogers. We still have Thompson. Darnell is not a reliever. These guys are hungry and want to make major league money and will pitch their hearts out 12-15 times for the remainder of the season. That's it for a reliever now...like 15 appearances, maybe. Not many when you think about it.

 

Take offers on Duensing, Boyer and Fein. Put them on the waiver wire and, along with Pelfrey, hope someone claims them. TR, don't even think about "they got us here, they stay here" bs. Think now, but also think the future. The now guys AREN'T EXCEPTIONAL in anyway. The future guys just may be, and we have a couple of choices for each tired old hand we send packing.

[bird]

 

Pressly hasn't really "dominated" AAA, but has actually been reasonably effective in MLB.

 

And Thompson, Thielbar, and Darnell have not really "dominated" AAA either.

 

The two guys in your list who most "dominated" AAA (Oliveros and Meyer) have pitched a combined 9 MLB innings in the last two seasons.

 

Not saying they are great options, but the Twins haven't really tested the more dominant AAA performers much.

 

Maybe the word "dominate" is inaccurate and obscures the point, which is that every one of these guys has had periods of success in AAA, and for various reasons they have all failed to become viable high-leverage options for the big club. I put both Meyer and Oliveros in that category despite how few innings they threw, because they were colossal disappointments when they did get their chances. So, is Duffey any more likely than Tonkin or Presley to perform well as a 7-8 inning guy? I'm skeptical. If they want a shut-down guy, they have to go find him and probably overpay big time.

[bird]

 

How do you know Duffey, Achter, O'Rourke and Rogers can be successful? They haven't even been given a chance yet.

 

I have no idea at all. But based on the scouting reports on each of them, I think it would be a real stretch to think they could be inserted as 7-8 inning guys and have more success than, say, Presley or Tonkin, who have not been great options so far for varying reasons.

 

Why would you want to take a chance that any of these four guys will be the answer as an alternative to Boyer and Fien as we compete for a postseason berth? If you're not going to go outside for a potential solution, sure, sound the cattle call and parade Duffey, Tonkin, Achter, and the rest of them out there. Just keep the parade going, like they've been doing all season. It might work out just fine.

Edited July 25, 2015 by birdwatcher

[HitInAPinch]

I think there's something of a misconception going on here.  re:  calling up a MiLB starter and putting him in the bullpen.  It's really done to get that pitcher acclimated to the MLB environment [big city, bright lights, steak instead of hot dogs...] and get a taste of MLB batters.  We've seen them in the minors, call this a major league status check.

 

Hey, sometimes they end up just sitting on the damn bench   

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I have no idea at all. But based on the scouting reports on each of them, I think it would be a real stretch to think they could be inserted as 7-8 inning guys

Nobody is suggesting immediately inserting them as the 7-8 inning guys.  Everybody is suggesting that with a season-long lack of better alternatives to give these some major league exposure to see if they can help.

 

With your plan (just wait for help from outside the org), we could well be shut out of any 2015 bullpen upgrades if we can't swing a reasonable trade next week.  Or we'll be FORCED to throw some untested guys into those 7-8 inning roles over the last two months of the season.

 

Me?  I would have tried to collect more data on our internal options earlier in the season, AND tried to swing a midseason trade for help.  They are not mutually exclusive.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Nobody is suggesting immediately inserting them as the 7-8 inning guys. Everybody is suggesting that with a season-long lack of better alternatives to give these some major league exposure to see if they can help.

 

With your plan (just wait for help from outside the org), we could well be shut out of any 2015 bullpen upgrades if we can't swing a reasonable trade next week. Or we'll be FORCED to throw some untested guys into those 7-8 inning roles over the last two months of the season.

 

Me? I would have tried to collect more data on our internal options earlier in the season, AND tried to swing a midseason trade for help. They are not mutually exclusive.

Exactly this. Once Stauffer imploded, we saw trouble was almost inevitable. That's when more aggressive measures should have been taken.

[adorduan]

 

Exactly this. Once Stauffer imploded, we saw trouble was almost inevitable. That's when more aggressive measures should have been taken.

^  This^^

[SwainZag]

 

Fein, like Guerrier and Burton, is overstaying his welcome. Thre was the slim chance that he was going to be dynamite this year and a non-contending Twins team would flip him to a contender for a prospect. Not happening.

 

 

Boyer was one of those interesting projects. He is working hard because he wants to stay in the majors, give him credit for that. Is he replaceable. Sure. Are we doing anything about it? No.

 

Duensing, like Burton last September where he was closing games to drive up his own worth it seemed and not really necessary as he wasn't coming back...give those innings to someone who will be pitching for you the next year. Right now, I would accept offers on Duensing and move him along. There is no way he will resign next season, unless he totally tanks elsewhere and needs a job. We have Thielbar. We can look at Rogers. We still have Thompson. Darnell is not a reliever. These guys are hungry and want to make major league money and will pitch their hearts out 12-15 times for the remainder of the season. That's it for a reliever now...like 15 appearances, maybe. Not many when you think about it.

 

Take offers on Duensing, Boyer and Fein. Put them on the waiver wire and, along with Pelfrey, hope someone claims them. TR, don't even think about "they got us here, they stay here" bs. Think now, but also think the future. The now guys AREN'T EXCEPTIONAL in anyway. The future guys just may be, and we have a couple of choices for each tired old hand we send packing.

 

You can take offers, but realistically there is no market for Boyer or Fien.  Boyer's smoke and mirrors of the first half are lifting and Fien just hasn't been.....well....good this year.  As for Duensing, he might have a little value, but he has been very effective now in his last 10 appearances (12.2 IP, 3H, 2BB, 9K, 0ER) and as a contending team, how do you get rid of that, especially with this bullpen?  

 

I would start with a DFA to Boyer and call up.....someone and if Fien doesn't pick it soon, I send him to AAA and call up someone else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You can take offers, but realistically there is no market for Boyer or Fien. Boyer's smoke and mirrors of the first half are lifting and Fien just hasn't been.....well....good this year. As for Duensing, he might have a little value, but he has been very effective now in his last 10 appearances (12.2 IP, 3H, 2BB, 9K, 0ER) and as a contending team, how do you get rid of that, especially with this bullpen?

 

I would start with a DFA to Boyer and call up.....someone and if Fien doesn't pick it soon, I send him to AAA and call up someone else.

That's how I'd do it as well.