Article: The Duffey Dilemma

[Seth Stohs]

The Minnesota Twins bullpen has been a problem for the last couple of months. Finding a bridge from the Twins starters to All-Star closer Glen Perkins has been a challenge. As the July trade deadline is now one week away, we are likely to hear lots of rumors involving relievers, but there are a few guys in the minor leagues who warranty consideration for a big league bullpen gig, including right-handed starter Tyler Duffey.Duffey began the 2014 season with four starts in Ft. Myers. He moved up to Double-A and then ended his season with three starts in Triple-A Rochester. He earned an invitation to big league camp, but then he began this season back in Double-A, this time with Chattanooga. He had to be disappointed, but he handled it well. He made eight starts and went 2-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 52.2 innings.

 

He earned a promotion back to Triple-A Rochester. In his first four starts for the Red Wings, he went 0-4 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in just 22.1 innings. Opponents hit .312/.340/.387 (.727) against him.

 

However, he has made some adjustment and in his seven starts since then he is 4-1 with a 0.74 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP over 48.1 innings. Opponents have hit just .174/.230/.236 (.466).

 

While with Chattanooga, he had a streak of 16.2 innings without allowing a run. With the Red Wings, he had a streak of 33.2 innings without allowing an earned run.

 

In most recent Twins seasons, Duffey would likely already be making starts in Minnesota. However, the Twins starting rotation has been strong this season. Even if the Twins were to remove a starter from their current rotation, Trevor May would be the guy who would jump back into the starting rotation.

 

No offense to Taylor Rogers or JO Berrios (who had another strong start on Thursday), but if the Twins needed a starter from Rochester, Duffey would have to be the choice.

 

That brings us back to the Twins struggling bullpen. Is it time for the Twins to give Tyler Duffey an opportunity in their bullpen?

 

Duffey has been primarily a starter in the Twins minor league system. You recall, however, that the Twins drafted Duffey in the fifth round of the 2012 draft. At Rice University, he was a reliever. He was a co-closer with JT Chargois (current closer in Chattanooga). In other words, the bullpen role would not be unfamiliar to him.

If the Twins were to call up Duffey in the next couple of weeks to pitch out of their bullpen, it wouldn’t have to mean that he would need to remain a reliever. Depending on the Twins offseason, he could be moved back to the starting role in the 2016 season if that makes sense. It would be a move to help them in their hopes to make the playoffs in 2015.

 

That isn’t to say that you call him up and immediately throw him into the eighth inning. The goal would simply be for him to help bridge the gap from starter to Perkins. There are games when they need a guy to finish the sixth or pitch a couple of innings. Duffey can do that.

 

His transition to starter happened in the Twins minor leagues in 2013, his first full pro season. As he told Twins Daily in a spring training interview, “Except for a summer when I went to the Cape and somebody got sick and I made a couple of starts, but other than that, I was a closer/second-inning panic guy to come in and throw four innings.”

 

His stuff is ready for the big leagues as a starter. As a starter, he works with a fastball in the low-90s. His best pitch is his 12-6 curveball. He also has a decent change-up. In his limited time in pro ball when he has worked out of the bullpen, his fastball has touched 97. He said that one of the keys to his success has been his sinker. He is a ground ball pitcher.

 

Duffey is not currently on the Twins 40-man roster. He would need to be added, though I’m sure the Twins could find someone to remove from the roster if a move were needed.

 

There are relievers in Rochester who have pitched well in AAA and deserve an opportunity as well. Michael Tonkin has been back and forth between the Red Wings and Twins for the last three years. At some point, they just have to give him an opportunity and stick with him for an extended period of time. He is out of options in 2016.

 

If there is a most-deserving reliever in Rochester, it has to be AJ Achter. The former 46^th round draft pick has been consistently terrific since being moved to the bullpen before the 2012 season. He debuted last September with the Twins. With the Red Wings this year, he is 4-2 with a Twins minor league-leading 14 saves. He has a 2.81 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in 41.2 innings for the Red Wings. He’s walked just 2.6 per nine innings while striking out 9.3 per nine innings.

 

Starter Taylor Rogers, a southpaw, has limited left-handed AAA hitters to just a .189/.206/.197 (.403) line this year. With Brian Duensing improved of late and Ryan O’Rourke doing very well in his two weeks with the Twins, particularly against lefties, Rogers should continue to start for Rochester. However, he should also be a strong consideration for September recall.

 

JO Berrios is certainly the top prospect in Rochester. The 21-year-old dropped his AAA ERA from 5.60 to 4.01 with seven shutout innings on Thursday. He has very good stuff and will likely be considered for a promotion in August as well. He doesn’t need to be added to the Twins 40-man roster until after the 2016 season, but if the Twins believe he can help them win in 2015, they won’t hesitate to promote him.

 

AJ Achter should already be in the Twins bullpen. Tyler Duffey should be strongly considered as a bullpen arm down the stretch for the Minnesota Twins.

 

If you’ve endured the past four seasons as a Twins fan, this dilemma – plenty of deserving candidates for promotion to the Twins – is more than welcomed!

 

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[Brock Beauchamp]

At this point, I don't even care who they call up... But for the love of God, call up someone.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't really see this as a dilemma. I see it as some kind of odd, stubborn, refusal to use their assets to help the MLB team.

[bird]

The real stubbornness might be in thinking Fien, Boyer et al are going to return to their previous levels of success, and that this will be good enough. Fortunately, we're hearing reports that this is not the thinking, but we'll see. The real dilemma is that none of these practically interchangeable pitchers- Duffey, Fien, Achter, Boyer, Oliveros, Thompson, Presley, O'Rourke, Duensing, Thielbar, Graham, May, Meyer, Rogers, Darnell, Tonkin- is adequate as a shutdown guy, a guy with sufficient command and control to consistently get you a key strikeout in late-inning situations.

 

Ryan needs to go outside the system for that right now. He's got a dozen internal candidates to choose from and they're all sub-optimal choices.

[drock2190]

Knowing the Twins they will probably use him in mop up role for his first 10 appearances to prove himself and by the time they trust him, the season will be over.

 

But yeah, he would make a 7th inning guy if he transitions well. 

[DaveW]

I still would prefer that the Twins first address the bp issue by bringing in a good ML proven shut down 8th inning arm. Papelbon, Clippard, K-Rod all would easily fit this bill, and if the price is to high, you have a really solid backup option in Benoit.

 

Once that is established I am all for bringing up Duffey and Acter shortly there after to see if one can "stick" as the 7th inning guy.

 

I think it would be dangerous for the Twins to not make a trade and solely rely on some of their minor league arms, impressive and as high ceiling as they may be, we have all seen the results this year with how rookies are very up and down, a guy like Benoit or Clippard etc in the 8th at least stabilizes your 6 most important outs in a game.

[nicksaviking]

Of course the problem here is that the only BP guys on the active roster that can be sent down are May and O'Rourke, and they aren't actually a problem.

 

Graham isn't a problem either, other than the way they use him, but the club's biggest issue with him is his lack of experience, which by now he probably has as much or more of than most of the arms they would call up from AAA.

 

So we're back to the Boyer/Fein/Duensing issue, the guys who for some reason are at the same time the most trusted, and the biggest liabilities in the bullpen.  Trades or callups won't be beneficial or perhaps even possible until at least one, and hopefully two, are removed from the situation all together.  And I don't say that with any malice, I appreciate what each has done for this club in their time here.  It's time though, cords need to be cut.  If the Royals have the stones to cut ties with the much more accomplished Jason Frasor, the Twins should be able to do the same.

[bird]

 

Knowing the Twins they will probably use him in mop up role for his first 10 appearances to prove himself and by the time they trust him, the season will be over.

 

But yeah, he would make a 7th inning guy if he transitions well. 

 

 

Trouble is, that's a big if. We've seen quite a few of these guys dominate AAA and then struggle up here. Tonkin comes immediately to mind, but we saw it with Oliveros, Presley, Thompson, Meyer, Thielbar, Darnell...not sure if Duffey is in a different class than any of those guys.

[Vanimal46]

You could sell me on a Joe Mauer Quickswing being a better option in the bullpen at this point... Put their names in a hat and draw one out to get the call.

 

There's a number of options to DFA and make room for Duffey, Rogers, Berrios or whoever they choose.

[drjim]

 

Of course the problem here is that the only BP guys on the active roster that can be sent down are May and O'Rourke, and they aren't actually a problem.

 

Graham isn't a problem either, other than the way they use him, but the club's biggest issue with him is his lack of experience, which by now he probably has as much or more of than most of the arms they would call up from AAA.

 

So we're back to the Boyer/Fein/Duensing issue, the guys who for some reason are at the same time the most trusted, and the biggest liabilities in the bullpen.  Trades or callups won't be beneficial or perhaps even possible until at least one, and hopefully two, are removed from the situation all together.  And I don't say that with any malice, I appreciate what each has done for this club in their time here.  It's time though, cords need to be cut.  If the Royals have the stones to cut ties with the much more accomplished Jason Frasor, the Twins should be able to do the same.

 

Fien has an option, Boyer isn't long for the team, and Duensing is pitching just fine recently. These aren't problems.

 

More to the point, the reason Fien is considered a liability is that he pitches the highest leverage innings. Calling up someone from AAA to take these innings would just change who the liability is. Twins really need to bring in someone from outside the org and push Fien into more of a 7th inning role and he'll be fine. Fien is good enough for a role in an mlb pen, just not as he is used. Boyer not so much.

[Vance_Christianson]

Boyer and Fien are out of time! I don't think they could even strike me out. Ha! Duensing can chew up some innings in games that are already decided. He's actually pitched okay as of late.

 

I love that we moved Meyer to the BP, but he hasn't been able to harness this role either. Is Meyer hiding an injury possibly?

 

I like Oliveros, but he can't stay healthy.

 

I agree with pretty much everyone in this thread, that we need to go get a guy who can strike people out. Locked down the 8th and 9th inning. Once we get that figured, I think that'll motivate the other 5 guys in our Bullpen as well. Nobody has a role really except for Perkins, and I think it's starting to show its true colors.

[nicksaviking]

 

Fien has an option, Boyer isn't long for the team, and Duensing is pitching just fine recently. These aren't problems.

 

More to the point, the reason Fien is considered a liability is that he pitches the highest leverage innings. Calling up someone from AAA to take these innings would just change who the liability is. Twins really need to bring in someone from outside the org and push Fien into more of a 7th inning role and he'll be fine. Fien is good enough for a role in an mlb pen, just not as he is used. Boyer not so much.

 

I agree that at this point Duensing is the best of the three, but none of them should be in the 7th either.  Low velocity and low strikeout pitchers shouldn't be used in any kind of situation other than mop up duty.  A bullpen that has one guy with an inability to strikeout a batter should reconsider what they view as the necessary skill set for preventing late-inning runs and the Twins current three most trusted and used arms all have a K/9 under 5.3.  It's beyond baffeling how that even happend, and I don't know how the front office could have let this go on for so long, it should have been addressed months ago.

[drjim]

 

I agree that at this point Duensing is the best of the three, but none of them should be in the 7th either.  Low velocity and low strikeout pitchers shouldn't be used in any kind of situation other than mop up duty.  A bullpen that has one guy with an inability to strikeout a batter should reconsider what they view as the necessary skill set for preventing late-inning runs and the Twins current three most trusted and used arms all have a K/9 under 5.3.  It's beyond baffeling how that even happend, and I don't know how the front office could have let this go on for so long, it should have been addressed months ago.

 

To me the logical internal guys to move into that role were Tonkin and Pressly. Tonkin got some chances and didn't do much and Pressly got hurt.

 

I just don't see the AAA guys as coming in and being overly effective. Has to come from the outside and those guys haven't moved yet.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't understand the fear of using Duffey or Berrios in the 7th/8th. Just because they aren't "proven closers" doesn't mean they can't do the job. We are pretty sure the current guys can't (or aren't allowed for some reason) do the job, why not try something else?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't understand the fear of using Duffey or Berrios in the 7th/8th. Just because they aren't "proven closers" doesn't mean they can't do the job. We are pretty sure the current guys can't (or aren't allowed for some reason) do the job, why not try something else?

I'm fine with keeping Berrios in Rochester because he has been a dedicated starter for 3+ years now. Let him stay focused on starting and don't disrupt his learning process. If you want to use him as a reliever, let him glide into that role slowly next spring.

 

But Duffey, he spent a lot of time as a reliever. He knows the process. You can get that guy up to speed in a hurry and if you refuse to call up somebody like Oliveros, there's no valid reason not to go with Tyler because something needs to be done.

[SwainZag]

I think the writing is on the wall for Boyer and he is definitely the next one gone.  I am hoping that Berrios continues to pitch like he did last night in AAA and possibly see him start a few games for the Twins this year, that's why I would rather not see him in the bullpen.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the writing is on the wall for Boyer and he is definitely the next one gone.  I am hoping that Berrios continues to pitch like he did last night in AAA and possibly see him start a few games for the Twins this year, that's why I would rather not see him in the bullpen.

 

totally fair. That still leaves Duffey. And Oliveras. And Achter. And Rogers.

[drjim]

 

totally fair. That still leaves Duffey. And Oliveras. And Achter. And Rogers.

 

Considering Oliveros is hurt, hasn't pitched in a month, and was pretty mediocre leading up to that, probably about time to stop mentioning him as an option.

 

Duffey sure, why not, but the other two aren't exactly going to move the needle a whole lot. Rogers hasn't been all that great against righties so why replace O"Rourke and/or Duensing, and Tonkin is clearly better than Achter.

[Jham]

Berrios and Rogers are the only ones I see as potential upgrades from even Fien and Boyer.  My thought is that Duensing AND Fien both rushed back from their injuries.  Fien needs to go back to the DL. Boyer is simply overworked.  He wasn't even in baseball last year, no?  Duensing is fine with the exception that Rogers might be slightly better... maybe.  Big risk to take when Duensing is pitching well and has experience, including playoff experience.  

Berrios has taken time to adjust every time he's jumped a level.  Presumably he'll be a better pitcher than Fien and Boyer.  But I wouldn't bet that he is right now.  I haven't watched Duffy pitch enough to say whether he's an upgrade, but based on his initial struggles with AAA, I would guess probably not.  Dominating guys who aren't good enough to bat 7, 8, 9 in a major league line-up doesn't do a ton for me.  Now Clippard on the other hand...  I'm not against going to an 8 man pen at this point to try to keep arms fresh and give new guys a shot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Trouble is, that's a big if. We've seen quite a few of these guys dominate AAA and then struggle up here. Tonkin comes immediately to mind, but we saw it with Oliveros, Presley, Thompson, Meyer, Thielbar, Darnell...not sure if Duffey is in a different class than any of those guys.

Pressly hasn't really "dominated" AAA, but has actually been reasonably effective in MLB.

 

And Thompson, Thielbar, and Darnell have not really "dominated" AAA either.

 

The two guys in your list who most "dominated" AAA (Oliveros and Meyer) have pitched a combined 9 MLB innings in the last two seasons.

 

Not saying they are great options, but the Twins haven't really tested the more dominant AAA performers much.

Edited July 24, 2015 by spycake

[SwainZag]

 

totally fair. That still leaves Duffey. And Oliveras. And Achter. And Rogers.

 

And Tonkin.  I am guessing the majority will get chances in September.  At this point who do you replace?  Not Perkins, Duensing has been a lot better, O'Rourke just came up and has looked good, they have kept Graham this long, he likely isn't going anywhere.  That leaves May, Fien and Boyer.  

 

I can't see them DFA'ing Fien.  You have May and Boyer then.  

[jeffn48]

Not sure, but I'm guessing this FanGraphs article from a month ago was brought up somewhere about Taylor Rogers: 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/lefties-cant-touch-taylor-rogers/

 

He's still got a chance to be a #5 starter and O'Rourke is doing a fine job now as the LOOGY, but with his K rate it seems less than probable that he'll be an asset as a starting pitcher. Maybe his stuff would play up in the bullpen. His minor league numbers seem fairly similar to Perkins' at a glance.

[Otto von Ballpark]

To repeat, Fien does have an option remaining.  So he could be sent to AAA without being exposed to waivers.

 

They also could go back to 13 pitchers if they sent down a position player (say, Danny Santana).

 

I wish we would have done these moves some time ago (and tested Pelfrey in the pen too, or just test May more in a setup role) so we would know better what we need at the deadline.

[David HK]

A lot of folks on this site have been harping on this issue all season.  Why there hasn't been positive movement all year long is just dumbfounding.  When we broke camp with Boyer and Thompson in the pen, I thought, who the H are these guys?  What are they doing here?  And the Stauffer experiment, sheesh!  It's like the FO spent time putting together as many pieces as they could in all the other areas, then got tired and took a season-long nap when it came time to deal with the BP.  "Ah, heck with it, we'll just go with these guys, I need to lie down for a while," I can practically hear TR saying.  

 

As surprising as this year has been, and as fortunate as we fans are to have been enjoying this unexpected ride, that BP has been standing out like a fart in church, all year long.  With our too often stagnant offense, we can't afford to just give away winnable games like we've been doing all year.  If a deal for BP help was ever going to happen, I think it should have been done long ago.  At this late stage,  we may be getting into a bidding war for a decent arm

 

There are decent options out there for a bridge to Perky land.  But at this point, with as many games as have been wasted, and seeing how the A's and Angels handled us coming out of the break, I don't want to give up the farm for a rental this year.  Clippard, et.al., at a decent price or not at all.  If we don't get one of those guys listed above, I won't be too disappointed.  I'm not calling the season over yet, but I've got a feeling we're going to feel the coming back to earth sensation soon.  So please, no  Ramos for Capps repeats this year, if you please.

 

Hm.  Just wondering- if it's a coincidence Bull Pen and Batting Practice share the same initials...

[USAFChief]

 

And Tonkin.  I am guessing the majority will get chances in September.  At this point who do you replace?  Not Perkins, Duensing has been a lot better, O'Rourke just came up and has looked good, they have kept Graham this long, he likely isn't going anywhere.  That leaves May, Fien and Boyer.  

 

I can't see them DFA'ing Fien.  You have May and Boyer then.  

Well, start with that.  I thought May would make a fine addition to the pen, but since he isn't being used, send him back to Rochester and let him start.  Or put him back in the rotation, and put Pelfrey in the pen and USE him as a short reliever.  But don't just put May in the pen and let him sit there, not helping an obvious weakness.

 

Boyer...frankly I don't care what they do with him.  Release, DFA, whatever.  Just stop using him as a short reliever.

 

And as noted, Fien has an option.  Although if he didn't, frankly, again, I wouldn't care if he was lost in an effort to improve the pen options.

 

But for heaven's sake...do SOMEthing.  

[kab21]

I have absolutely no problems moving Duffey to the pen and hoping his stuff plays up there.  The only dilemma is who to send down/get rid of (discussed above) and if he actually leapfrogs other RP's in AAA.

 

Berrios stays a starter until the MiLB season is finished.  He needs to be ready to go a full season (6 months) as a starter next year.  In September (Aug 31st to be postseason eligible) I hope he is promoted and could potentially be the Twins version of Carlos Martinez. 

Edited July 24, 2015 by kab21

[drjim]

 

I have absolutely no problems moving Duffey to the pen and hoping his stuff plays up there.  The only dilemma is who to send down/get rid of (discussed above) and if he actually leapfrogs other RP's in AAA.

 

Berrios stays a starter until the MiLB season is finished.  He needs to be ready to go a full season (6 months) as a starter next year.  In September (Aug 31st to be postseason eligible) I hope he is promoted and could potentially be the Twins version of Carlos Martinez. 

 

I agree with the Berrios plan. The other part is he is probably the starter that gets called up if a need arises. And keeping him as a starter might make it possible to flip Pelfrey and move May back in the rotation.

 

It really isn't a dilemma to make space for Duffey if he is ready.

[Willihammer]

 

Berrios stays a starter until the MiLB season is finished.  He needs to be ready to go a full season (6 months) as a starter next year.  In September (Aug 31st to be postseason eligible) I hope he is promoted and could potentially be the Twins version of Carlos Martinez. 

This seems to be accepted thought by a lot of fans but I just don't get it. If they're going to add Berrios to the roster in a month anyway, why wait? Is missing 4-5 August starts in AAA really going to delay his development that much? Seems dubious IMO.

[nicksaviking]

 

To me the logical internal guys to move into that role were Tonkin and Pressly. Tonkin got some chances and didn't do much and Pressly got hurt.

 

I just don't see the AAA guys as coming in and being overly effective. Has to come from the outside and those guys haven't moved yet.

 

But who gets replaced?  Unless it's another lefty, O'Rourke is probably staying.  May could get sent down, though that seems like a waste.  Graham is staying unless they Braves suddenly get generous.  To get a new lefty, Boyer has to be released.  To get two it absolutely needs to be Fien.

 

I also don't get the hesitation to use the unproven guys late in games.  The proven guys are proving not to be able to handle it. 

[jimbo92107]

 

The real stubbornness might be in thinking Fien, Boyer et al are going to return to their previous levels of success, and that this will be good enough. Fortunately, we're hearing reports that this is not the thinking, but we'll see. The real dilemma is that none of these practically interchangeable pitchers- Duffey, Fien, Achter, Boyer, Oliveros, Thompson, Presley, O'Rourke, Duensing, Thielbar, Graham, May, Meyer, Rogers, Darnell, Tonkin- is adequate as a shutdown guy, a guy with sufficient command and control to consistently get you a key strikeout in late-inning situations.

 

Ryan needs to go outside the system for that right now. He's got a dozen internal candidates to choose from and they're all sub-optimal choices.

Good article, and birdwatcher's observation implies that management might be willing to use some of these AAA chips to deal for a "shutdown guy" for the 8th inning. There must be plenty of teams that need an innings-eating mid-rotation guy like Tyler Duffey.