Article: Twins Will Be Active Shoppers At Trade Deadline

[Mike Sixel]

Except I don't buy it is a 1 year deal, but you keep arguing it is. IMO, it helps A TON with next year and the year after also......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Except I don't buy it is a 1 year deal, but you keep arguing it is. IMO, it helps A TON with next year and the year after also......

I'm not acting as if it's a one year deal, I'm acting as if the likelihood of Tulo being a valuable player decreases with each additional year, which it does.

 

2015 Tulo, great. 2016 Tulo, probably great. 2017 Tulo? Eh, this is where it starts to get really dicey. The guy spent his age 27-29 seasons missing ~50% of the Rockies' games. How is he going to fare in his age 31-33 seasons?

[Mike Sixel]

This part isn't an argument that it is for 1 year?

 

"And I don't think it's a prudent move to give up a significant portion of the farm to play a game that essentially gives a 50/50 chance of reaching a five game series."

 

btw, I agree, it is risky.......but I have seen plenty of the Twins' prospects lately to think maybe, just maybe, they aren't all that great, and dealing a bunch of maybes for Tulo is a good idea. I see where others disagree.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

btw, I agree, it is risky.......but I have seen plenty of the Twins' prospects lately to think maybe, just maybe, they aren't all that great, and dealing a bunch of maybes for Tulo is a good idea. I see where others disagree.....

I'm not against giving up "maybes". Hell, I'm all for giving up a few maybes if it fixes a position of need.

 

It's going to take a lot more than "maybes" to get Tulo. Pick two of May, Gibson, Sano, Buxton, Berrios. That's what it will probably require.

[Willihammer]

These trade threads always seem to reduce into oversimplifications where the only possibilities are:

 

1. "All-in" trade of prospects for a big-name rental

2. Sell the vets for prospects as per rebuild

 

There's a third trade type that helps in the near and mid-/long- term. Eg. the Phillies trade for 2 1/2 years of Pence in 2011 or the O's trade for 2 1/2 years of Bud Norris in 2013. This is the type of deal the Twins should be exploring IMO. A trade for Gausman or Brad Miller would fit the bill, as examples.

Edited July 23, 2015 by Willihammer

[USAFChief]

 

I went back to 2010 and looked at the biggest trade deadline deals.  I found 12 deals (none in 2013).  A few of these names don't seem marque now but were at the time.  Dempster was sporting a 2.65 ERA and Bourne was a .766 OPS CF. 

 

Year        Player          Team         Result
2014       Price           Tigers         Lost round 1
2014      Lester             A's           Missed playoffs
2014       Jeff S.             A's           Missed playoffs
2012     Dempster      Rangers      Missed playoffs
2012        Pence          Giants          Won WS
2012       Greinke         Angels      Missed playoffs
2011       Jimenez          Indians     Missed playoffs
2011         Bourn            Braves      Missed playoffs
2011         Pence            Phillies       Lost round 1
2011         Beltran             Mets       Missed playoffs
2010           Lee               Rangers       Lost WS
2010         Haren               Angels      Missed playoffs

 

A few takeaways from me. One of the 12 buyers won the world series.  That would be the Giants in 2012 with Hunter Pence.  He put up an OPS of .671 with SF and a playoff OPS of .670.  So his contributions to that world series were not exactly huge. 

 

The other takeway is that these deals are not symmetric.  Look at the Mets giving up Wheeler for a Beltran rental.  Now this could be the poster boy of bad trades, but you are giving up potentially 6-7 years of control of a really good young pitcher for a rental.  That is the type of deal that could really backfire.  As I think about JO Berrios, similar long term risk. The Dodgers had Pederson on the table for Price but the Rays liked the Tigers offer better.

 

I don't think the Twins are really in a position to make a move right now and give up a ton.  I would swap May for Pelfrey, Polanco for Santana and get the best stop-gap catcher out there that won't cost a ton.  I don't think we have the type of hand right now to go all in, especially since the odds at winning the pot have not favored doing so.

It's important, I think to differentiate between true "rent a player" deadline deals and other types of deadline deals.  In some of these cases, viewing the trade solely in terms of the year the deal was made undervalues the trade.

 

 

 

In regards to the above, several of the players you listed provided value to the team acquiring him after the season in question.  David Price is still a Tiger, providing value and will bring back a piece or two if they deal him.  Hunter Pence is still a Giant (and has won 2 WS as a Giant, not 1.)

 

It's also important to consider what the teams gave up, too, I think.

 

Just to pick one example...Pence cost the Giants their number 2 rated (by BA) prospect, AA C Tommy Joseph (has yet to appear in a major league game), P Seth Rosin (yes, the one from MN), who has 6 big league innings to date, and OFer Nate Schierholz.

 

Think the Giants regret giving up that haul?

 

Prospects are great, we all love 'em.  But the reality is, most of em don't end up worth a hill of beans.  Berrios is a nice prospect, but the chances the Twins seriously regret losing him down the road are not that high.  Gibson is a decent MLB pitcher, and he might actually get better...but he's 28, and the chances of that aren't great.

 

A Tulo trade has a very good chance of filling one need, and filling it well, for the next several years. Not just 2015. That might not happen, but then again Buxton might never be a good, healthy big leaguer, either.  

 

I'd let either Gibson or Berrios form that basis of that trade 100 times out of 100.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There's a third trade type that helps in the near and mid-/long- term. Eg. the Phillies trade for 2 1/2 years of Pence in 2011 or the O's trade for 2 1/2 years of Bud Norris in 2013. This is the type of deal the Twins should be exploring IMO. A trade for Gausman or Brad Miller would fit the bill, as examples.

Gausman has 5.5 years of control left.  Even Miller has 4.5.  Neither will be paid more than the minimum salary until at least 2016-2017.  Their teams have no incentive to move them now unless they get a very high return.

 

And if that's the case, I'd argue Tulo fits this mold too.  For all his imperfections, at least he has a demonstrated record of MLB excellence.  You'd really have to trust the Twins scouts if we gave up a lot for Gausman or Miller.

[Rosterman]

If the Twins can pull off a Wild Card, I aplaud. It was totally unexpected. Theya re a good team, but nothing overtly special. They play well because some otehr teams are playing bad. That they are the 4th or 5th (at one time the 2nd) best record says something about how everyone has averaged out amidst some eal downer teams.

 

It is a real opportunity for the Twins to play with their own parts, so to speak. To advance and looksee at some folks knowing you can still send them out for seasoning. Maybe you egt a hot streak in a weak position, maybe not. 

 

What is disappointing is when you stop and look at the worth of the plyaers on the team. Who on the team would anotehr team trade for. Who would another team overpay in a trade for. Who could find work (starting job at least) on another team. Who would struggle to sign a minor league contract with hopes of someday making it back to the majors. Yes as a whole, the team has been playing well. Nothing truly outstanding except for a couple that makes other teams look and salivate at what the Twins have.

 

That can and will change. Better to groom and play and SEE what we have than overspend on another contract that may or may not pan out (although a couple years ago we were complaining that the Twins weren't spending money). They have spent money. We can applaud that. But like prospects that may or may not pan out, you can't be sure on money spent, too...as we have seen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just to pick one example...Pence cost the Giants their number 2 rated (by BA) prospect, AA C Tommy Joseph (has yet to appear in a major league game), P Seth Rosin (yes, the one from MN), who has 6 big league innings to date, and OFer Nate Schierholz.

 

Think the Giants regret giving up that haul?

The Giants have been really good at this.  Outside of Wheeler for Beltran, it hasn't really cost them in terms of prospects (and Beltran performed very well for the Giants).

[Mike Sixel]

Except they aren't playing with their own parts......

 

Polanco is in the minors.

NONE of the AAA starters are being tried as RP (heck, neither are the RP)

Arcia is down for a 40 year old to play

May is doing nothing, while Pelfrey pitches (and the other BP pitch)

 

They didn't play with their pieces last year, they aren't this year. It isn't their style.

[Willihammer]

 

Gausman has 5.5 years of control left.  Even Miller has 4.5.  Neither will be paid more than the minimum salary until at least 2016-2017.  Their teams have no incentive to move them now unless they get a very high return.

 

And if that's the case, I'd argue Tulo fits this mold too.  For all his imperfections, at least he has a demonstrated record of MLB excellence.  You'd really have to trust the Twins scouts if we gave up a lot for Gausman or Miller.

Both players have shown up on MLBTR, and they both play positions of need for the Twins, that's the only reason I mention them specifically.

 

Tulo would be more of an all-in move IMO, with more of a long term "obligation" rather than a long-term "upside," like there would be trading for someone on the upswing of his career.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The other takeway is that these deals are not symmetric.  Look at the Mets giving up Wheeler for a Beltran rental.  Now this could be the poster boy of bad trades, but you are giving up potentially 6-7 years of control of a really good young pitcher for a rental.

Beltran actually went FROM the Mets and TO the Giants.  The Giants gave up Wheeler.  Wheeler was/became an arguably better prospect than Berrios, and even he has only given the Mets 50 starts of 100 ERA+ pitching so far before TJ surgery (his TJ comeback season will be his last before arbitration).

 

Beltran played well for the Giants down the stretch, but it was indeed a steep price to pay for a 2 month rental and they missed the playoffs that year.  But it would have been a pretty great for Beltran at age 30-31 controlled for many years, which is closer to where Tulowitzki is right now.

[tobi0040]

 

 

 

 

Just to pick one example...Pence cost the Giants their number 2 rated (by BA) prospect, AA C Tommy Joseph (has yet to appear in a major league game), P Seth Rosin (yes, the one from MN), who has 6 big league innings to date, and OFer Nate Schierholz.

 

Think the Giants regret giving up that haul?

 

Prospects are great, we all love 'em.  But the reality is, most of em don't end up worth a hill of beans.  Berrios is a nice prospect, but the chances the Twins seriously regret losing him down the road are not that high.  Gibson is a decent MLB pitcher, and he might actually get better...but he's 28, and the chances of that aren't great.

 

A Tulo trade has a very good chance of filling one need, and filling it well, for the next several years. Not just 2015. That might not happen, but then again Buxton might never be a good, healthy big leaguer, either.  

 

I'd let either Gibson or Berrios form that basis of that trade 100 times out of 100.

 

The one example just happened to be the one team in twelve that won the WS.

 

Two comments

 

FIrst, Their playoff rotation was Lincecum (3.43 ERA), Bumgarner 3.00 ERA), Cain (3.14 ERA), and Sanchez (3.07 ERA).  In no way comparable to ours.

 

Second, the Giants may not regret it, but the Giants may regret giving up Wheeler and the A’s probably regret giving up Addison Russell.

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Both players have shown up on MLBTR, and they both play positions of need for the Twins, that's the only reason I mention them specifically.

If the Orioles were dangling Gausman, it would be for immediate help like Carlos Gomez.  Not a passel of prospects like Pence and Norris fetched.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/kevin-gausman

 

Not sure where the Mariners are at, but Miller is their current starting SS and has been mentioned very little at MLBTR lately.

 

I don't think either is being actively shopped, which Pence and Norris almost certainly were.

[Willihammer]

 

If the Orioles were dangling Gausman, it would be for immediate help like Carlos Gomez.  Not a passel of prospects like Pence and Norris fetched.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/kevin-gausman

 

Not sure where the Mariners are at, but Miller is their current starting SS and has been mentioned very little at MLBTR lately.

 

I don't think either is being actively shopped, which Pence and Norris almost certainly were.

Maybe they're not, who knows for sure. They are just rumors. That doesn't really change my overall point about targeting players who are cost-controlled for 2+ years as opposed to a rental (or decline phase guy like Tulo).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tulo would be more of an all-in move IMO, with more of a long term "obligation" rather than a long-term "upside," like there would be trading for someone on the upswing of his career.

Obviously different players age differently, but see my Beltran example above -- taking on his long-term contract around age 30 for any reasonable prospect haul (i.e. headlined by Wheeler or Berrios type) would have been a fantastic move for the acquiring team.  Not without risk, of course, but the performance upside is plainly evident.

 

Players on the "upswing" of their careers can be good, but they are less likely to actually swing up as high as even a fairly pessimistic Tulowitzki forecast, I think.  I think people here are under-rating the value of demonstrated performance, even on a contract like Tulo's remaining deal.  There's a reason the Rockies aren't trading him, and it's not because no one is willing to send them a Gibson or Berrios led package and take on the remaining salary.  He's simply worth more than that.

 

The Twins should walk away because the prospect haul becomes too great (i.e. that package plus Sano), not because of the money or the aging curves or his home/road splits.

[dxpavelka]

 

Not sure Gibson and Berrios should be grouped together.  Gibson isn't some young prospect, he'll be 28 this year.  He is what he is.  He is an okay, nothing special, middle of the road #3 type starter.  Which is good to have, but nothing that should stop a team from trading for a player like Tulo.

Agree that Gibson is a middle of the road # 3 type starter.  You can never get too many of those when you haven't had a legitimate # 1 for 8 years.

 

[Willihammer]

 

Obviously different players age differently, but see my Beltran example above -- taking on his long-term contract around age 30 for any reasonable prospect haul (i.e. headlined by Wheeler or Berrios type) would have been a fantastic move for the acquiring team.  Not without risk, of course, but the performance upside is plainly evident.

 

Players on the "upswing" of their careers can be good, but they are less likely to actually swing up as high as even a fairly pessimistic Tulowitzki forecast, I think.  I think people here are under-rating the value of demonstrated performance, even on a contract like Tulo's remaining deal.  There's a reason the Rockies aren't trading him, and it's not because no one is willing to send them a Gibson or Berrios led package and take on the remaining salary.  He's simply worth more than that.

 

The Twins should walk away because the prospect haul becomes too great (i.e. that package plus Sano), not because of the money or the aging curves or his home/road splits.

I agree, but IMO one of Berrios or Gibson is too much. As a counter-example, I'd submit Joe Mauer who came off an .880 season at age 30. Which side of that trade would you rather be on? Teixeira would be another example.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Twins should walk away because the prospect haul becomes too great (i.e. that package plus Sano), not because of the money or the aging curves or his home/road splits.

 

Right, but these are things you consider when you are debating where the line for "too great" comes in.  They aren't really separate.  

[Dr. Evil]

The Twins will not make the playoffs IMHO. I commented in the offseason about the need to improve the bullpen and the comment was made by someone that Mr. Ryan had a history of building a pen "on the cheap." Soon after that someone else commented that yes, he has got a history of building a pen on the cheap.......albeit a bad pen.

 

So I'm not really surprised that Fein is unreliable. He never seems to change speeds and his stuff is flat. Duensing.....not even going to comment.

 

So, here we are in the thick of the race and that is terrific. But no way do we have the pen to get us to the playoffs.

 

As for Tullo, he is an elite shortstop offensively and defensively. I would love to see him on the Twins even if it meant handing over a couple of prospects. He is a foundation type guy and those are tough to come by. I wouldn't hesitate to give up Plouffe right now either while his value is high. Let Sano learn on the job for the remainder of the year. An infield of Tullo, Dozier, Sano, and Mauer for next year sounds pretty decent to me. If you can add a good pen arm for Plouffe now and another in the offseason to go with Perkins, we would have a pen with a fighting chance.

[Vanimal46]

TR could still live up to his motto of building pens on the cheap if they would make a call to Rochester or Chattanooga.... not sure who's the one being too loyal with these players (Boyer, Duensing, Fien) but it's getting ridiculous.

Edited July 23, 2015 by Vanimal46

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Right, but these are things you consider when you are debating where the line for "too great" comes in.  They aren't really separate.  

True, but we're nowhere near that line simply by adding Gibson or Berrios, which seemed to be the position of some on this board.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree, but IMO one of Berrios or Gibson is too much. As a counter-example, I'd submit Joe Mauer who came off an .880 season at age 30. Which side of that trade would you rather be on? Teixeira would be another example.

Well, Joe Mauer had a concussion that season which moved him off catcher.  Without that concussion and position change, I think a team would have to consider this for Mauer at 5/115 (although a C is riskier than a SS).

 

Teixeira was a 1B with a 124 OPS+ at age 30 (and had something like 6/138 left on his deal).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Teixeira was a 1B with a 124 OPS+ at age 30 (and had something like 6/138 left on his deal).

I try to avoid using Yankees contracts as proof of anything because they're stupid with money.

 

Really, really stupid with money. Thankfully, their saving grace is that they have a bottomless pit of money.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury. I still can't believe people defended that contract. I damned near fell out of my chair in hysterical laughter when I read the details.

[Willihammer]

 

Well, Joe Mauer had a concussion that season which moved him off catcher.  Without that concussion and position change, I think a team would have to consider this for Mauer at 5/115 (although a C is riskier than a SS).

 

Teixeira was a 1B with a 124 OPS+ at age 30 (and had something like 6/138 left on his deal).

They aren't perfect comparisons contract-wise, I'm establishing a downside as a counter-example to your Beltran example (20 WAR in age 31-35 seasons). Tex is at 14.7 with a half season left. That's still reasonable but doesn't leave much (if any) room for surplus value after factoring in the 95m he's owed. In a way, just unloading the wrong half of any big contract should be a fair enough deal for the seller. Adding prospects or MLB players on top and it becomes a no-go if I'm buying.

Edited July 23, 2015 by Willihammer

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the player with the big contract is still performing well, and still at a premium defensive position, the "wrong half" is still a good deal. Hence player opt out clauses. Tulo would benefit from one this winter.

[AlwaysinModeration]

They aren't perfect comparisons contract-wise, I'm establishing a downside as a counter-example to your Beltran example (20 WAR in age 31-35 seasons). Tex is at 14.7 with a half season left. That's still reasonable but doesn't leave much (if any) room for surplus value after factoring in the 95m he's owed. In a way, just unloading the wrong half of any big contract should be a fair enough deal for the seller. Adding prospects or MLB players on top and it becomes a no-go if I'm buying.

So, those two examples are players who put up 3-4 WAR per season in their decline phase after 30. Usually WAR costs $5-6mm per WAR on the free market. It's true that you might not get as much WAR as they would be paying for in a trade for Tulo...but I don't see another likely way for the Twins to add 3-4 WAR per season at SS. And they might be getting some of those 5 WAR seasons from Tulo (like he has posted 5 of the past 6 years), which they certainly won't get from any other option.

 

Opportunities to add elite players don't come along very often. The Twins have never done it via FA. The fact that they have conversations with the Rockies about it...and that Dozier might be pushing it internally...increases the chance it happens to above zero, I think.

[tobi0040]

 

If the player with the big contract is still performing well, and still at a premium defensive position, the "wrong half" is still a good deal. Hence player opt out clauses. Tulo would benefit from one this winter.

 

Obviously we can't give up much of anything unless he waives his opt out (I think you are saying he has one)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Obviously we can't give up much of anything unless he waives his opt out (I think you are saying he has one)

No, sorry for the confusion.  I was saying that Tulo would probably like to have an opt-out -- he'd easily top 5/98 this winter, and he could pick his new team.

 

But he doesn't have an opt out.

[jimmer]

Perhaps active shoppers (though not surprisingly no rumors to speak of as MLB Network pointed out tonight, so who knows), but inactive actual buyers.

Edited July 31, 2015 by jimmer