Article: Twins Will Be Active Shoppers At Trade Deadline

[Blackjack]

 

There's no guarantee that making moves this year will succeed either. One has to play the odds. You think the odds favor moving now. I think the odds are better if we wait.

 

Thats pretty much the theme of this whole post, some posters think that trades have to be made just because the Twins are contending, and other posters think its foolish to throw away their draft picks now for a team that has a lot of holes.  

 

Personally I'm just going to enjoy the ride.

[tobi0040]

I think having may in the rotation instead of pelfrey, over the last five or so starts, and next five would have a bigger impact than any trade would.

[SarasotaBill]

How about getting Ramos and Hardy to fill our C and SS holes?

 

Do you think we could trade useless and ineffective RP for them?

[spinowner]

 

The pieces are just starting to come together and more will fit in the years to come.  Enjoy it for what it is now and hopefully something special will happen.

Yes. Don't worry. Be happy!

[hybridbear]

The Twins should be sellers right now. They are not going anywhere in the playoffs this year, if they even make it. Why would you throw away prospects for a rental player? The only deal that makes any sense is trading away prospects for a talented MLB player who has a team friendly contract. Otherwise just stick with the prospects.

[tobi0040]

I went back to 2010 and looked at the biggest trade deadline deals.  I found 12 deals (none in 2013).  A few of these names don't seem marque now but were at the time.  Dempster was sporting a 2.65 ERA and Bourne was a .766 OPS CF. 

 

Year        Player          Team         Result
2014       Price           Tigers         Lost round 1
2014      Lester             A's           Missed playoffs
2014       Jeff S.             A's           Missed playoffs
2012     Dempster      Rangers      Missed playoffs
2012        Pence          Giants          Won WS
2012       Greinke         Angels      Missed playoffs
2011       Jimenez          Indians     Missed playoffs
2011         Bourn            Braves      Missed playoffs
2011         Pence            Phillies       Lost round 1
2011         Beltran             Mets       Missed playoffs
2010           Lee               Rangers       Lost WS
2010         Haren               Angels      Missed playoffs

 

A few takeaways from me. One of the 12 buyers won the world series.  That would be the Giants in 2012 with Hunter Pence.  He put up an OPS of .671 with SF and a playoff OPS of .670.  So his contributions to that world series were not exactly huge. 

 

The other takeway is that these deals are not symmetric.  Look at the Mets giving up Wheeler for a Beltran rental.  Now this could be the poster boy of bad trades, but you are giving up potentially 6-7 years of control of a really good young pitcher for a rental.  That is the type of deal that could really backfire.  As I think about JO Berrios, similar long term risk. The Dodgers had Pederson on the table for Price but the Rays liked the Tigers offer better.

 

I don't think the Twins are really in a position to make a move right now and give up a ton.  I would swap May for Pelfrey, Polanco for Santana and get the best stop-gap catcher out there that won't cost a ton.  I don't think we have the type of hand right now to go all in, especially since the odds at winning the pot have not favored doing so.

 

Edited July 23, 2015 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

I went back to 2010 and looked at the biggest trade deadline deals. I found 12 deals (none in 2013). A few of these names don't seem marque now but were at the time. Dempster was sporting a 2.65 ERA and Bourne was a .766 OPS CF.

 

Year Player Team Result

2014 Price Tigers Lost round 1

2014 Lester A's Missed playoffs

2014 Jeff S. A's Missed playoffs

2012 Dempster Rangers Missed playoffs

2012 Pence Giants Won WS

2012 Greinke Angels Missed playoffs

2011 Jimenez Indians Missed playoffs

2011 Bourn Braves Missed playoffs

2011 Pence Phillies Lost round 1

2011 Beltran Mets Missed playoffs

2010 Lee Rangers Lost WS

2010 Haren Angels Missed playoffs

 

A few takeaways from me. One of the 12 buyers won the world series. That would be the Giants in 2012 with Hunter Pence. He put up an OPS of .671 with SF and a playoff OPS of .670. So his contributions to that world series were not exactly huge.

 

The other takeway is that these deals are not symmetric. Look at the Mets giving up Wheeler for a Beltran rental. Now this could be the poster boy of bad trades, but you are giving up potentially 6-7 years of control of a really good young pitcher for a rental. That is the type of deal that could really backfire. As I think about JO Berrios, similar long term risk. The Dodgers had Pederson on the table for Price but the Rays liked the Tigers offer better.

 

I don't think the Twins are really in a position to make a move right now and give up a ton. I would swap May for Pelfrey, Polanco for Santana and get the best stop-gap catcher out there that won't cost a ton. I don't think we have the type of hand right now to go all in, especially since the odds at winning the pot have not favored doing so.

Good post. I'd run with Escobar at short first... You can always call up Polanco later. I'd also pick up a bullpen rental to pour some water on that dumpster fire.

 

But, like you, I'd be in no rush to move valuable assets unless the deal just felt perfect. This team isn't good enough for that and one guy isn't going to make them better enough.

[tobi0040]

 

 This team isn't good enough for that and one guy isn't going to make them better enough.

 

That is just it.  The last 12 deals didn't really propel a team to become a WS champion and most if not all of those teams had a starting point of a more talented team than we have right now.

 

Now those pushing for Tulo could argue it is a five year deal.  Admittedly that is diffferent than most of these rentals. I still don't like that deal for the money and cost of prospects for a 30-35 year old who has been hurt a ton.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That is just it.  The last 12 deals didn't really propel a team to become a WS champion and most if not all of those teams had a starting point of a more talented team than we have right now.

 

Now those pushing for Tulo could argue it is a five year deal.  Admittedly that is diffferent than most of these rentals. I still don't like that deal for the money and cost of prospects for a 30-35 year old who has been hurt a ton.

I have the same problems with Tulo but I'm not entirely against the deal. The biggest issue I have with it is that I doubt the Twins win in 2015 with or without him.

 

And that means you've burned through one of Troy's remaining productive years. He might have 3-4 more in him. He might have one. He might, god forbid, have none.

 

He's a risky player and it's a risky deal. His injury history scares the hell out of me. I love his bat but have serious doubts it can stay on the field.

[Mike Sixel]

More risky: relying on guys never having played in the majors, or relying on Tulo?

[spinowner]

 

2014      Lester             A's           Missed playoffs
2014       Jeff S.             A's           Missed playoffs

Small quibble: Oakland made the postseason and lost to KC in the wild card game.

Second way more nitpicky quibble: In MLB a playoff is the game(s) needed to break a regular season tie, and the game(s) is(are) part of the regular season. The official term for playing down to World Champion is the postseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

More risky: relying on guys never having played in the majors, or relying on Tulo?

Well, it depends. If you play the MiLB guys, you get to rotate through 3-4 of them you wouldn't have if you acquired Tulo. You'd also have $20m to go buy a player in November.

 

With Tulo, you have none of that. You have Troy Tulowitzki. All the eggs, one slightly cracked Faberge basket.

 

Tulo has more upside in the short term but I'm not sure short-term upside should matter to the Twins because I don't think they're very good. But any way you shake the tree, Tulo is a riskier proposition.

[Mike Sixel]

Where are they spending that next offseason? Not on a FA SS or C. Not on an elite SP. Probably not on an OF or 3B or 1B or 2B. Where is that money going?

 

Which 3-4 guys are they going to rotate thru? They aren't rotating Arcia through, or any of the SP in AAA that could be RP. They aren't rotating the worst position player in MLB with another guy. I'm not making these suggestions in a vacuum, I'm looking at how Ryan and Molitor are using their options today, and drawing the conclusion that we are not getting a lot of rotating/testing. They didn't do it last year, they aren't doing it this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Where are they spending that next offseason? Not on a FA SS or C. Not on an elite SP. Probably not on an OF or 3B or 1B or 2B. Where is that money going?

This argument really needs to be put to bed. Ryan has spent decent money the past two seasons. There's no reason he can't do the same this offseason.

 

With that said, why this would happen in the next week:

 

July, 2015.

Terry Ryan: I'd like to give up a few prospects for the honor of paying Troy Tulowitzki $100m over the next half dozen years.

Jim Pohlad: AWESOME. LOVE IT! Whoo hoo!

*Ryan and Pohlad high-five*

 

But if July passes, this magically happens?

 

November, 2015.

Terry Ryan: I'd like to give Player X $60m to shore up our horrible shortstop/catcher/whatever situation.

Jim Pohlad: Go **** youself, Terry.

*Pohlad punches Ryan in the face*

 

If the Twins have money today - and I'm not saying they do - then they have money in November.

[TheLeviathan]

Good post earlier tobi. The myth of deadline deals and going all-in to win is one of strongest delusions in sports. It's not only ineffective, it's often counter productive in both the short and long term.

 

Middle deals at the deadline and splash in the offseason. That's what actually works.

[Mike Sixel]

It isn't that they won't spend money, it is that there isn't a SS or C worth spending money on as a FA. Look at the lists......just plain bad.

 

And, he has bought 4 medium priced pitchers, but not one ace type that is going to cost 20MM per year for 5-7 years (nor am I saying he should).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Good post earlier tobi. The myth of deadline deals and going all-in to win is one of strongest delusions in sports. It's not only ineffective, it's often counter productive in both the short and long term.

Middle deals at the deadline and splash in the offseason. That's what actually works.

 

Great, I'd love a big deal for an elite player in the off season. I don't see that happening either......btw, I don't see anyone arguing for trading for a 2 month rental in most of these threads.

[TheLeviathan]

Great, I'd love a big deal for an elite player in the off season. I don't see that happening either......btw, I don't see anyone arguing for trading for a 2 month rental in most of these threads.

I don't know what you're arguing for? Tulo or failure?

[tobi0040]

 

Where are they spending that next offseason? Not on a FA SS or C. Not on an elite SP. Probably not on an OF or 3B or 1B or 2B. Where is that money going?

 

Which 3-4 guys are they going to rotate thru? They aren't rotating Arcia through, or any of the SP in AAA that could be RP. They aren't rotating the worst position player in MLB with another guy. I'm not making these suggestions in a vacuum, I'm looking at how Ryan and Molitor are using their options today, and drawing the conclusion that we are not getting a lot of rotating/testing. They didn't do it last year, they aren't doing it this year.

 

I would be excited if we traded for Tulo.  I just don't think it would push us to the WS this year with Pelfrey in the rotation,  Kurt at catcher, etc.  I would be excited but the track record of trading really good young, controlled cheap players through their prime plus other pieces for 30+ year olds making $20M a year is not good. That has been a losing bet more than a winning bet. It is not the way in which you build a team for the long term.  Especially a guy that missed a ton of games through his prime.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2015 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

It isn't that they won't spend money, it is that there isn't a SS or C worth spending money on as a FA. Look at the lists......just plain bad.

 

And, he has bought 4 medium priced pitchers, but not one ace type that is going to cost 20MM per year for 5-7 years (nor am I saying he should).

There are always players available in the offseason. They won't be as good as Tulo but they'll be available, either in FA or in reasonable trade that doesn't require Ryan to light the farm on fire.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are always players available in the offseason. They won't be as good as Tulo but they'll be available, either in FA or in reasonable trade that doesn't require Ryan to light the farm on fire.

 

The FA list is a known quantity right now. If he manages to spend $20MM on a SS and C, something bad happened.

 

As for a trade, it is possible, sure, but that has nothing to do with signing FAs, which is what I thought we were discussing.

[tobi0040]

 

The FA list is a known quantity right now. If he manages to spend $20MM on a SS and C, something bad happened.

 

As for a trade, it is possible, sure, but that has nothing to do with signing FAs, which is what I thought we were discussing.

 

But a trade and FA are mutually exclusive when you take on $100M via trade.

 

The 10th reason why this deal won't happen.  If you are Mr. Pohlad. You have been burned with injury on the $23M Mauer deal post 30.  Burned on the $14M Nolasco deal post 30.  Taking on $100M for Tulo seems crazy to me.

 

From his ages 25-29 seasons (prime),  he missed roughly 275 games.

Edited July 23, 2015 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not the one saying they'll find a SS and C that are good in FA next year....you won't find me typing that for sure. Others are saying one of the reasons not to acquire Tulo is that they need that money for signing a SS and a C......

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But a trade and FA are mutually exclusive when you take on $100M via trade.

 

The 10th reason why this deal won't happen.  If you are Mr. Pohlad. You have been burned with injury on the $23M Mauer deal post 30.  Burned on the $14M Nolasco deal post 30.  Taking on $100M for Tulo seems crazy to me.

 

From his ages 25-29 seasons (prime),  he missed roughly 275 games.

Exactly. You've essentially removed both options this offseason because you have no prospects left to trade and you've spent all your money.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not the one saying they'll find a SS and C that are good in FA next year....you won't find me typing that for sure. Others are saying one of the reasons not to acquire Tulo is that they need that money for signing a SS and a C......

To me, the money isn't as important as the pieces the Twins have to give up to acquire Tulo.

 

If the Twins are going to win for a prolonged period of time, it's going to be on the backs of Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Meyer, Kepler, Gibson, May, et al. Several of those pieces are off the table if you acquire Tulo and the Twins have so many flaws they need those players. Even with Tulo, the team still needs a handful of good players to win and they don't have those players. Tulo doesn't fix catcher, DH, the rotation, or the bullpen.

 

The team has too many holes and one player isn't going to solve that problem.

[Mike Sixel]

Isn't Sano the DH? If he's the 3B, then you have Plouffe to get a C........w/o giving up any prospects to do so.

 

You expect them to acquire another SP from outside? I don't. they won't be spending tens of millions on the bullpen, will they?

 

Tulo does fix SS....moving it from the WORST position player in all of baseball, to one of the best. That's a big swing, imo.

[tobi0040]

 

Tulo does fix SS....moving it from the WORST position player in all of baseball, to one of the best. That's a big swing, imo.

 

 

True.  But I think the next five years you take Tulo over Polanco, which is a smaller gap IMO and more importantly lose Berrios over our 6th best starter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Isn't Sano the DH? If he's the 3B, then you have Plouffe to get a C........w/o giving up any prospects to do so.

 

You expect them to acquire another SP from outside? I don't. they won't be spending tens of millions on the bullpen, will they?

 

Tulo does fix SS....moving it from the WORST position player in all of baseball, to one of the best. That's a big swing, imo.

Sano is the DH now. He could be third base next year, which makes Plouffe a valuable trade chit. The Twins will have a better idea of what he'll be in three months (starting some time soon when Plouffe goes on leave).

 

I don't expect them to pick up another starter but Berrios should be with the club next season and Meyer is a wild card. If they acquire Tulo, one of the starters (Gibson, May, Berrios) is almost certainly out the door. The rotation is far from a strength on this team and I don't see how they lose one of those pieces and remain competitive.

 

The Twins have a lot of moving parts right now. Their two best prospects are still question marks. They'll have something resembling an answer to those questions after the season is complete. Their outfield looks decent right now but question marks remain. In two months, they'll have a better idea whether Hicks and Rosario are for real (and hopefully Arcia).

 

Young teams are volatile. It doesn't make a lot of sense to start moving critical pieces when any number of young players could collapse tomorrow.

 

Every single valuable player is under team control for 2016. This shouldn't be a "get it done NOW" situation. Ride the wave, hope things go right, and prepare to adjust this offseason if they don't, comfortable in the knowledge that you'll have more information to make an educated decision at that point (not to mention the market will be more favorable to you over the winter months).

 

If the Twins had 4-5 young players rocking and rolling, one or two team issues, and had played better than .500 ball for the past eight weeks, I'd feel differently about it. You throw caution to the wind at that point and make your push. The Twins aren't in that position. They're a hugely flawed team that is riding one good month but have looked mediocre/bad outside of that one month. That doesn't instill faith in their ability to compete down the stretch. Make a few small moves, try to stay in contention, hope a few players get hot at the right time. If they don't, oh well. Make adjustments this winter and try again.

[Mike Sixel]

That's all fair.......sure doesn't instill much confidence in next year either.....year what of the rebuild that isn't a rebuild?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's all fair.......sure doesn't instill much confidence in next year either.....year what of the rebuild that isn't a rebuild?

It became a rebuild the moment Span and Revere went out the door. I don't see how that's even in question. Whether Ryan ever said the fan-killing word "rebuild" is irrelevant to me. His actions spoke much louder than anything he could have said to the public.

 

It doesn't instill a lot of confidence but that's part of a rebuild. If your prospects don't pan out, you don't win baseball games. It doesn't really matter if the Twins have Tulo or not. If your cost-controlled players aren't playing well, it's a moot point. Barry Bonds didn't win a championship for a reason. One guy can't do it in baseball. One of the AL teams is going to go on a run in the next two months. 500 ball isn't going to get it done for the Twins and I don't see them beating that without a healthy dose of luck (again).

 

What is the best-case scenario of acquiring Tulo? A Wild Card playoff game? The Twins aren't going to pass the Royals. They're an inferior team in too many facets of the game.

 

And I don't think it's a prudent move to give up a significant portion of the farm to play a game that essentially gives a 50/50 chance of reaching a five game series.