Article: Twins Will Be Active Shoppers At Trade Deadline

[Parker Hageman]

As Major League Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline approaches, casual Minnesota Twins fans may be interested in the activity for the first time in several years. With the postseason in reach, the Twins will be active shoppers.

 

On July 3rd, Twins general manager Terry Ryan joined Darren Wolfson and Chris Long on 1500ESPN. With less than a month to go, Ryan was asked what his goals at the trade deadline were. Outsiders believed the most glaring need would be the bullpen. The staff between the starters and Glen Perkins had been shaky as of late. For instance, Casey Fien, who was a late innings staple heading into the season, had been smacked around, allowing 9 runs on 15 hits in nine innings of work dating back to June 22.

Ryan, however, said he prioritized the need for an additional bat in the lineup over a reliever.Just a day prior to his radio appearance, Miguel Sano made his major league debut in Kansas City and his impact was almost immediately felt. His zone acumen appeared advanced and when he swung, he was putting the ball back into play with significantly more velocity than when it came in. Sano's zone awareness stumbled some once teams threw more off-speed pitches in hitter's counts -- as was evident in Oakland following the All-Star break -- but rolling his ankle on a stray baseball during warm-ups was nothing short of another depressing moment in Twins- prospects-getting-injured history.

 

When healthy, Sano's bat could presumably provide the lineup with the necessary thump that was lacking from the designated hitter spot and the middle of the order. In theory, the 22-year-old slugger should be ready to return to the lineup today. However, since the All-Star break the Twins have managed to score just 8 runs (only the Red Sox have scored fewer) and there are other giant holes in the lineup in dire need of an upgrade.

 

Almost immediately after I posted a piece in 2014 suggesting catcher Kurt Suzuki had found the swing plane and mechanics combination to join his high-level contact rate and zone approach, he completely fell back to Earth and crashed through six miles of bedrock. For most of 2014 Suzuki found success by driving a pitch on the outer-half the other way. He hit .279 when going to right field that year. This season he is hitting just .157 as the line drives have been replaced by looping fly balls and other weak contact. In all, since August 1, 2014, Suzuki has compiled an OPS of .606, which is 40th out of 43 catchers who have caught in 60 or more games.

 

One area in which Suzuki has improved in this season is his framing abilities. This was a concerted effort on the part of Suzuki along with bench coach Joe Vavra in spring training. In 2014, according to StatCorner.com, the Twins catcher cost his team 14 runs -- or a little over one win in the standings. This season his metrics are significantly improved. While he’s not an elite strike-stealer by any stretch of the imagination, he has been worth 0.1 runs above average so far in 2015. That has been a benefit to the pitching staff.

 

The state of the position has declined so much in Minnesota that A.J. Pierzynski is being discussed as a viable option. While the left-handed former Twin is enjoying a rebound season with Atlanta, posting a .748 OPS which is ninth best among qualified catchers, his receiving game is a farce, costing his pitching staff almost seven runs during his stint in Georgia. That said, some combination of Suzuki and Pierzynski may actually resemble a serviceable backstop for the remainder of the season.

 

RELATED: Will Twins Address Their Most Glaring Weakness?

 

Meanwhile the shortstop position can only be adequately described by picturing a guy dousing himself in gasoline and lighting himself on fire.

 

Similar to Suzuki, Danny Santana’s offensive approach in 2014 seemed designed to allow him to avoid prolonged slumps. His minimalist swing mechanics, quick wrists and line drive stroke surely allowed him to produce as an average shortstop at least. Instead, he became overly aggressive and expanded the zone to account for the space above both batter’s boxes as well as the strike zone. To make matter’s worse, he was a liability in the field. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s database, in 67 games Santana made 12 defensive misplays (not necessarily errors but costly blunders nonetheless) and 15 errors. The 27 defensive miscues were by far the most in the shortest amount of playing time for all shortstops. Admittedly, errors and mistakes are not the greatest measuring stick to gauge a shortstop’s performance. After all, one shortstop’s 6-3 is another’s seeing-eye single. Yet in comparison to Eduardo Escobar, who has demonstrated a much steadier hand and has shown that he can convert almost all the routine outs, Santana comes in second place.

 

RELATED: Escobar Needs To Be The Everyday Shortstop

 

For all of his shortcomings, Santana excels at being able to start a double-play. Obviously the prerequisite for starting double plays is having a runner on first with less than two outs (his ability to “assist” hitters to reach first safely may have played a factor). Also helpful is having a pitcher spin a ground ball. Santana has started 28 double plays, the sixth most among all shortstops. By comparison, Eduardo Nunez has started 5 while Escobar has started 4. Although a lot of double plays are reliant on the situation, there is skill involved with the timing and the feed to the base in order to set up the twin killing and Santana is fairly adept at that.

 

As it stands, the Twins do need to find some much needed stability in the shortstop position. Because of this, the team has been tied to Colorado’s shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki.

 

As Jeremy Nygaard wrote about yesterday, the Twins and Rockies have had some form of discussion centered around Tulowitzki. According to Nygaard, Colorado has requested either Kyle Gibson or Jose Berrios as part of any trade package and that still might not be enough to pry Tulowitzki away. As his team continues to flounder at the bottom of the National League West, the Rockies shortstop has hinted in not so many words that he would like to play for a contender. “Hopefully I can be into every single pitch and pretend like something is on the line,” he told reporters after Tuesday’s game.

 

While he would be immediate superior to any of the current options, a scenario in which the Twins land him does not seem feasible. This would not only require the Twins absorbing $100 million remaining on Tulowitzki's contract but it would also require the unloading of several valuable prospects. Meanwhile the Twins would receive Tulowitzki, a 30-year-old who is elite when he is able to contribute but is frequently on the trainer's table (between 2012 and 2015, he’s missed 213 of 486 games) and has been blessed with hitting in Denver's rarefied air to increase his power numbers while the spacious confines of Coors Field inflate his batting average and on-base percentage. The Twins -- or anyone looking to trade for him -- would likely overpay for what they would get in return.

 

There is little question that the shortstop position has been a mess but there does not seem to be a reason to overspend for Tulowitzki (as fun as that would be). Danny Santana has regressed so hard in his sophomore season that the world actually started rotating backwards too. Eduardo Escobar has been steadier and provided more professional at-bats this season. Overpaying for a talented shortstop does not appear too appetizing. As Nick suggested on Wednesday, simply playing Escobar in place of Santana for the remainder of the season might provide the team with a sufficient upgrade. And as Seth detailed on Tuesday, there are other shortstop options that may not come at quite the steep price as Tulowitzki would.

 

As the trade deadline approaches, if Terry Ryan adheres to his previous statement of obtaining some offense, there are no two position in bigger need of an upgrade than catcher and shortstop. Neither position necessarily requires selling the farm to improve, either.

 

It’s boring and unsexy but this team should exercise restraint when it comes to the trade deadline.

 

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[spinowner]

The last sentence of this article is really all that team management should keep in mind. The Twins are a franchise on the upswing. While not all prospects become stars or even major leaguers we have enough highly regarded players in the minors that we should be a better team next year than this, and better yet in 2017. We should do nothing now that would in any way jeopardize the next two years.

[Parker Hageman]

We should do nothing now that would in any way jeopardize the next two years.

 

 

From a logical, long-term, sustainable success standpoint, yes. Absolutely agree. That said, flags fly forever and no one forgets where they were during the World Series parade. 

 

[TommyGun]

If all the Twins had to do to acquire Tulo was take on his salary I'd still think it was a rip off. Let alone trading Gibson or Berrios and anyone else itd take. Idk if its myself think smart long term or just growing attached to the prospects from all the minor league reports but I hope the twins stick with what they've got and wait till next year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Agreed, restraint wouldn't be the worst thing, as adding Sano and Ervin Santana is pretty big itself. However, there is still a logjam of valuable young corner infield/outfield guys that we don't have room to play.

[Mike Sixel]

Mostly disagree....they have banked these wins. Casting them aside, on the hope that next year will be better......that's how you pretty much never win. Because next year you do the same thing....and then next year again. At some point, you try to win.

 

If they are supposed to stand still this year, what's different next year that makes you think they'll be looking at this many wins at the ASB?

[HitInAPinch]

"Danny Santana regressed so hard in his sophomore season that the world actually started rotating backwards too."

 

Now THAT's funny!! 

 

My question to you, Parker is this:  Should the Twins be active shoppers for a playoff run this year or building for the future?  I can see at some positions that it's both.  How about starting pitching?  The only true #1 pitcher I know is available is David Price.  Apparently the Tigers are gearing up for a garage sale.  How about a proven bat for the OF? 

 

Just curious.......

[rghrbek]

 

Mostly disagree....they have banked these wins. Casting them aside, on the hope that next year will be better......that's how you pretty much never win. Because next year you do the same thing....and then next year again. At some point, you try to win.

 

If they are supposed to stand still this year, what's different next year that makes you think they'll be looking at this many wins at the ASB?

 

Mike you've made this point before, and to a certain extent I agree.  Especially if I felt these "banked" wins were sustainable to mean something in the 2nd half.  I just don't fee that they will continue their winning ways.  They can sign an arm in the bullpen in the off season, and should see what they have in house.  If they were going to make a trade for a legit SS or Catcher, I would be open to that, but at what costs?  We make 2 or 3 trades and stay relevant this year.  Is that worth it?  Are we actually going to win the play in wild card game?  I guess I am torn, but I feel like we should be getting better in upcoming years. The FO can sign the right people, to compliment (or trade) we should continue to improve.  Making "go for it" trades this year, just doesn't make sense, IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess it is tough....if you only trade when you are sure you are winning a division, you are mostly never going to make trades to actually get better.....so at some point, you need to make a call.

 

If they don't try to fix SS, C, RP, they should be sellers, imo.

 

What they should not do, is sit still, imo.

[jimmer]

 

If all the Twins had to do to acquire Tulo was take on his salary I'd still think it was a rip off. Let alone trading Gibson or Berrios and anyone else itd take. Idk if its myself think smart long term or just growing attached to the prospects from all the minor league reports but I hope the twins stick with what they've got and wait till next year.

Not sure Gibson and Berrios should be grouped together.  Gibson isn't some young prospect, he'll be 28 this year.  He is what he is.  He is an okay, nothing special, middle of the road #3 type starter.  Which is good to have, but nothing that should stop a team from trading for a player like Tulo.

[Comrade Bork]

The idea of trading any of our starting pitchers now that we have a "suplus" just feels so wrong after so many years of fuitility.  No way we give Gibby or Berrios up for Tulo.  

[Siehbiscuit]

I don't think many believe that Santana, Escobar or even Jorge Polanco, will ever be great at SS. Jorge has the best potential there (due to his bat), but they all have their flaws. Is it out of the question, now that Dozier has matured (emotionally) and is a confident team leader to put him back at SS? I'd love to save Berrios and Gibson and try Dozier at SS with a guy like Polanco at 2B.

[Parker Hageman]

If they are supposed to stand still this year, what's different next year that makes you think they'll be looking at this many wins at the ASB?

 

 

Restraint doesn't mean to not improve for this year. There are plenty of options to improve the team that doesn't require breaking the farm system or adding $20M to the payroll next five years (although I have less of an issue with that than the prospects). The Orlando Cabrera/Carl Pavano trades proved you could add to your team without dipping too far into the system. Simply, it means avoiding overpaying in a midseason trade for someone like Tulowitzki. 

 

As Hosken pointed out, there are corner infield/outfield types that I would be OK with trading for a component that stretches beyond just this season. For the right player, Oswaldo Arcia or Max Kepler could be traded (although I'm personally enamored by Kepler). 

 

Should the Twins be active shoppers for a playoff run this year or building for the future?I can see at some positions that it's both.How about starting pitching?The only true #1 pitcher I know is available is David Price.Apparently the Tigers are gearing up for a garage sale.How about a proven bat for the OF?

 

 

In the case of AJ Pierzynski, it wouldn't cost a lot. Then again, the Twins will be back in the same position in 2016. The free agent market doesn't look promising either for a long term solution (Wieters, if he becomes available which is doubtful):

 

Catchers

Alex Avila

Chris Ianetta

John Jaso

Jeff Mathis

Dioner Navarro

Brayan Pena

A.J. Pierzynski

Matt Wieters

 

That kind of starting pitching comes at too high of a cost at the deadline. Better to "overpay" in the free agent market than to try to part with several promising prospects (like Oakland did last year). 

[nicksaviking]

2015 was not supposed to be a winning season.  The long term game plan should not be scrapped chasing something that logic says is still quite unlikely.  The experienced veterans aren't talented enough to win it all and the talented rookies aren't experienced enough to win it all. 

 

I can handle coming up short again this year. I can't handle coming up short again this year AND losing top prospects AND getting tied down with more albatross contracts. 

 

Go ahead and get some rental players or trade some of the prospects for young, controlable long term players even if the trade doesn't quite look fair in the Twins favor.  Just no more expensive vets please.

Edited July 22, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess it is tough....if you only trade when you are sure you are winning a division, you are mostly never going to make trades to actually get better.....so at some point, you need to make a call.

And, if you are winning the division, you're probably going to say "we're already good enough" and stand pat...

[troyhobbs]

I don't think anyone in the Twins org is considering selling the farm but giving up a prospect or 2 for established vets in the thick of a playoff hunt makes a lot of sense to me. There are no guarantees they'll be in this position next year or the year after that etc. The idea of holding back now because in theory they might be better down the road is the wrong approach IMO.

[mudcat14]

As far as prospects go, we know there is no way they all pan out. The Twins know these players better than anyone. They know who they can trade and who they can't. If a few of them and Gibson or Arcia can bring a Tuliowitzki and/or a Lucroy, then you gotta do it. The well isn't gonna suddenly dry up in the farm system. Only Buxton, Stewart, Gordon & Jay were Top 10 selections. Everyone else came from diligent scouting and development. That ain't changing any time soon for the Twins.

Edited July 22, 2015 by mudcat14

[Parker Hageman]

Everyone else came from diligent scouting and development. That ain't changing any time soon for the Twins.

 

 

I can't tell if this is a knock or not.

 

[Steve Lein]

How about Arcia for Trevor Story, instead of Pursuing Tulowitzki?

 

But I'm in the boat of some others. Tulowitzki would be a major boost. You're getting a proven, elite commodity (when healthy) at the expense of probably prospects who haven't done anything yet. It's not like Tulo would be a rental either. There are certainly trade scenarios where everything makes perfect sense.

 

And to those that are so afraid of Tulo's home/road splits for reasons I don't understand, I have to point out that his away OPS is still elite for a SS.

 

Now do I think this would be in their best interest? That's debatable. But, in the right scenario this could help in both the short and long term.

 

I'd certainly prefer to do other types of deals first, like the one I suggest up top, but I'd have a hard time being mad about bringing in a player of Tulowitzki's caliber, unless he continues to miss 1/2 the games every year.

[puckstopper1]

 

Should the Twins be active shoppers for a playoff run this year or building for the future? .......

 

If the Twins traded for Tulo or Lucroy, the answer would be "both" depending on what they give up for them as they could help now and for the next several years (at least until Gordon is ready in the case of Tulo).

Edited July 22, 2015 by puckstopper1

[Mike Sixel]

2015 was not supposed to be a winning season. The long term game plan should not be scrapped chasing something that logic says is still quite unlikely. The experienced veterans aren't talented enough to win it all and the talented rookies aren't experienced enough to win it all.

 

I can handle coming up short again this year. I can't handle coming up short again this year AND losing top prospects AND getting tied down with more albatross contracts.

 

Go ahead and get some rental players or trade some of the prospects for young, controlable long term players even if the trade doesn't quite look fair in the Twins favor. Just no more expensive vets please.

Is next year supposed to be a good year? Can they trade for real players then?

[spsdrock]

I would just like them to stand pat on this season.  Maybe a small trade for a RP. We have so much talent and young team that we can fix some holes in the offseason.

[Vanimal46]

 

I would just like them to stand pat on this season.  Maybe a small trade for a RP. We have so much talent and young team that we can fix some holes in the offseason.

 

The biggest holes that we've all been debating on are SS and C. Check out this list of pending FA's this off-season, and let me know your thoughts on how we can fix these holes.....

 

Catcher:

Matt Weiters (debatable if he gets to FA)

Alex Avila
Chris Ianetta
John Jaso
Jeff Mathis
Dioner Navarro
Brayan Pena
A.J. Pierzynski

 

Shortstop:

Ian Desmond

Joaquin Arias
Clint Barmes *
Willie Bloomquist
Asdrubal Cabrera
Alcides Escobar *
Cliff Pennington
Alexei Ramirez *
Jimmy Rollins
Brendan Ryan *

 

* means they have a 2016 option http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-2016-free-agents/ is the source.

 

Long story short, the names aren't pretty to find on the open market... Hence why standing pat at the trade deadline could force the Twins to be in this same situation in July 2016.

[JustinCB]

They'd do best to go find a couple competent relievers.  I can barely stand to watch the late innings this year.

[Blackjack]

 

I guess it is tough....if you only trade when you are sure you are winning a division, you are mostly never going to make trades to actually get better.....so at some point, you need to make a call.

 

If they don't try to fix SS, C, RP, they should be sellers, imo.

 

What they should not do, is sit still, imo.

Can you say "Ramos for Capps"?  Smith was going for it and we see how that worked out.

 

And as far as being sellers, if it would have been up to a lot of people here on TD, Perkins would have been gone last year. At some point you have to decide that you have a core of players to build around.

 

My opinion is get a relief pitcher at a decent price, maybe by picking up his big salary, and see what happens, let the in-house catcher and SS options play out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Can you say "Ramos for Capps"?  Smith was going for it and we see how that worked out.

 

And as far as being sellers, if it would have been up to a lot of people here on TD, Perkins would have been gone last year. At some point you have to decide that you have a core of players to build around.

 

My opinion is get a relief pitcher at a decent price, maybe by picking up his big salary, and see what happens, let the in-house catcher and SS options play out.

 

Not one place have I said trade a legit prospect for a replacement level RP......no where on this entire board, ever.

[spinowner]

I'm sorry, but when I look at this year's team I don't see World Series champions. I just don't. And I don't think any realistic appraisal puts the Twins even in the top five. Making enough roster moves to change my mind about that would certainly cost us the core of prospects we've been working so hard to assemble during these last four dark and difficult years. Don't let the illusion of this year's win-loss record fool you into thinking that the future is now. It isn't. Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers you make the big trade or FA signing to try to put a strong team over the top, not to try to re-work a borderline team. We all know that there are no guarantees, but our team has a strong likelihood of improving over the next couple years with the players that are already here. Don't mess it up now.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm sorry, but when I look at this year's team I don't see World Series champions. I just don't. And I don't think any realistic appraisal puts the Twins even in the top five. Making enough roster moves to change my mind about that would certainly cost us the core of prospects we've been working so hard to assemble during these last four dark and difficult years. Don't let the illusion of this year's win-loss record fool you into thinking that the future is now. It isn't. Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers you make the big trade or FA signing to try to put a strong team over the top, not to try to re-work a borderline team. We all know that there are no guarantees, but our team has a strong likelihood of improving over the next couple years with the players that are already here. Don't mess it up now.

 

So, do nothing this offseason either, that is big, since it is the same team?

[Blackjack]

 

Not one place have I said trade a legit prospect for a replacement level RP......no where on this entire board, ever.

I didn't say you did, I was just bringing up Ramos for Capps as a bad example of what can happen if you 'go for it'.

[spinowner]

 

I'm sorry, but when I look at this year's team I don't see World Series champions. I just don't. And I don't think any realistic appraisal puts the Twins even in the top five. Making enough roster moves to change my mind about that would certainly cost us the core of prospects we've been working so hard to assemble during these last four dark and difficult years. Don't let the illusion of this year's win-loss record fool you into thinking that the future is now. It isn't. Unless you are the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers you make the big trade or FA signing to try to put a strong team over the top, not to try to re-work a borderline team. We all know that there are no guarantees, but our team has a strong likelihood of improving over the next couple years with the players that are already here. Don't mess it up now.

 

 

So, do nothing this offseason either, that is big, since it is the same team?

Offseason, maybe. But not now, not in the seller's market we're in.