Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[Vanimal46]

Personally I would be fine with Escobar out there on a daily basis vs. the Santana/Nunez combo we usually see. Santana is essentially the worst SS in the major leagues right now (at the plate). Escobar would be very middle of the pack for shortstops but they continue to play him LF. Tulo would be the ultimate get, but the cost would be much more than a team on the upswing should pay.

I agree, but it depends what that price is to get him. I'm a big Berrios supporter, and would love to plug him into the rotation in 2016. But if he's the big prize the Rockies want, or Gibson + Kepler and another prospect outside of the top 10, I would pull the trigger on that deal.

[zchrz]

Eat the whole contract and May/ Polanco/ Rosario is probably about as high as I would go (and that wouldn't get it done).  They don't have enough young high end pitching to be trading it yet. .

[SwainZag]

 

Not getting him pretty much means Santana stays out there, right? I mean, we are in July, and he's still there........why would anything change unless something really changed?

 

To the person that said Tulo's past means nothing, do you really think Polanco is likely to put up more WAR in the next three years than Tulo?

 

I said it means nothing when comparing him to Polanco.  If Tulo was traded for Polanco I couldn't care less what his WAR was before the trade, but it's what they obtain after that counts.

[blairpaul715]

 

The numbers here are not perfect but should be within a ball-park.  We have all these threads out there suggesting we should extend guys right now.  Sano, Gibson, and Plouffe the most common.  We had some really high numbers thrown out already for Buxton and I am sure we are a year or two away from the chatter about extending Berrios and May.

 

With that top of mind, I come up with about $95M in commitments to 7 players if we add Tulo. Most that go out 3-4 years (5 for Tulo).   Save Dozier and Hughes, these guys are all on the wrong side of 30 already.  So I would hate to be in a position that we can't afford to lock up someone like Sano, Berrios, or Buxton if they prove to be a stud through their prime becaue we are paying a bunch of 34-35 year olds

 

 

2016   Mauer (23), Tulo (20), Nolasco (14), Ervin (14), Hughes (12) Dozier (7.5), Perkins (5).  $95M for 7 players.

 

I have a bias against one trade for one player that blows through farm assets and payroll assets at the same time.  We should think about what a 5 year $100M contract on the free agent market next winter would look like.  Because you can spend the money there without giving up a Gibson, Berrios, etc.

 

Additionally, Tulo is not a SS for that entire contract and his road .819 OPS will decline. I

I am only on page 4 reading as i write this so someone maybe already corrected it, but Dozier is only $3 Mill next yr not 7.5.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I said it means nothing when comparing him to Polanco.  If Tulo was traded for Polanco I couldn't care less what his WAR was before the trade, but it's what they obtain after that counts.

 

And, who is likely to be better the next three years? Me, I'll predict that Tulo will be better than a guy that can't throw the ball to the 1B in AAA. I could be wrong for sure, but if I had to bet, I'd bet on the Tulo.

[SwainZag]

 

And, who is likely to be better the next three years? Me, I'll predict that Tulo will be better than a guy that can't throw the ball to the 1B in AAA. I could be wrong for sure, but if I had to bet, I'd bet on the Tulo.

 

And if it were a 1 for 1 trade it would be an easy decision wouldn't it?  You take Tulo and I will take May-Polanco-Rosario.  Or Berrios-Polanco-Kepler or whatever the purposed trade is and let's make it 5 years.

[Mike Sixel]

btw, no way this happens. None. Nada. Nil.

 

It's nice to dream though (I admit, for some of you, this sounds like a nightmare).

[jimmer]

 

btw, no way this happens. None. Nada. Nil.

 

It's nice to dream though (I admit, for some of you, this sounds like a nightmare).

Tulo for Polanco,May and Rosario?  Sign me up. Rockies would never take such a small haul.

Edited July 21, 2015 by jimmer

[Mike Sixel]

No, I mean, no way they get Tulo. Just. Not. Happening.

[jimmer]

 

No, I mean, no way they get Tulo. Just. Not. Happening.

true.

[Vanimal46]

No, I mean, no way they get Tulo. Just. Not. Happening.

At least it was a fun afternoon not focusing on work

[d-mac]

 

Mauer + Nolasco for Tulo + Hundley.  Do it.

 

Twins might need to through in Duensing to get it done.

[shs_59]

For The Often Injured Tulo ?

 

I wouldn't think about offering Gibson or Berrios.

 

My offer Jorge Polanco and Alex Meyer and maybe one other lower level prospect.

 

thats it.

 

No way they get Sano, no way they get Berrios or Gibson and they should know that.

 

ALSO COORS FIELD INFLATES TULO's statistics. over his whole career.

[shs_59]

Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto to the Brewers for Jonathan Lucroy  and a C or C+ type of prospect that one.. i could get behind.

[jimbo92107]

 

If he's so good, why isn't he here? Why does he have 7 (or more) errors in AAA already?

The answer to that is Paul Molitor. He was Danny Santana's hitting tutor in the minors, and he's loathe to give up on the kid, even if Santana just isn't going to be another Paul Molitor.

 

Even if Santana is destined to "figure things out," at some point, it ain't happening on the mlb club. Santana needs to go down to AAA and build himself a plan at the plate that's not just "I hope I get a hit."

 

Meanwhile Jorge Polanco already has a pretty good plan at the plate, and it's hard to say his defense is any shakier than Santana's. Twins don't have much to lose by giving Polanco a shot for at least a month.

 

I'm not saying Polanco is better than Tulo, either. I'm saying the price the Rockies will want for him is too steep. The Twins will need some of these guys to keep the team stocked with good talent over the next decade. If you trade away the talent in AAA and AA, you strip the team of its future.

Edited July 21, 2015 by jimbo92107

[DaveW]

 

Tulo for Polanco,May and Rosario?  Sign me up. Rockies would never take such a small haul.

I dunno, again there you are getting 3 low cost players, May is a mid rotation guy, and Rosario looks like he could at least be a league average CF and has some pretty decent upside.

[Vanimal46]

 

Oswaldo Arcia and Josmil Pinto to the Brewers for Jonathan Lucroy  and a C or C+ type of prospect that one.. i could get behind.

 

I'm sure we all can get behind that to trade away a guy who can't play in the OF and a guy who can't play C for Lucroy.....

[jimmer]

 

 

 

ALSO COORS FIELD INFLATES TULO's statistics. over his whole career.

His career away OPS is .813.  An .813 OPS from a quality defender at the shortstop position is special (and this is the FIRST season he hasn't shown good skills there.  One season is not a trend).There are only two qualifying shortstops who have an OPS of .813 or better this season and he is one of them (with the best one by far).

People said the same thing about Holliday when he left Coors.  Ooops.  People think it's only about leaving Coors, but it's also about playing a ton of games in parks like Petco, Dodger Stadium and AT&T.  Not exactly hitters parks over the course of his career and not to mention against quality pitching staffs from those teams to boot on a regular basis.Tulo is a great hitter, period. And he's a leader, he has the intangibles too while still being a great player.

Even if he played 120 games a season, 120 games of him and 42 from others still makes the best shortstop situation.

At least for another couple years until Correa takes his belt.

Edited July 21, 2015 by jimmer

[nicksaviking]

 

The answer to that is Paul Molitor. He was Danny Santana's hitting tutor in the minors, and he's loathe to give up on the kid, even if Santana just isn't going to be another Paul Molitor.

 

 

Considering how often the Rockies have had to use their other middle infielders when Tulowitzki is on the shelf, there's still plenty room for Santana or Polanco.

 

Trading for Tulowitzki would excite me for 2015 and then I'd spend the next five years filled with dread waiting for the other shoe to drop.  I don't know what scares me more, having to give up one of the young top arms which this team so desperately needs, or being tied to another giant contract that may prohibit the extension of any or all of Sano, Buxton, Berrios or anyone that is deserving.

 

I'm a big picture guy, and I can't see Tulowitzki winning this team a WS in 2015 unless he turned into an ace starter who also moonlights as a set up guy between starts. 

 

If this team is only allowed to have one glaring offensive hole, can't it be SS? The cheaper option in terms of prospects and dollars is to fix the catcher spot in the off season.

Edited July 21, 2015 by nicksaviking

[jimmer]

 

I dunno, again there you are getting 3 low cost players, May is a mid rotation guy, and Rosario looks like he could at least be a league average CF and has some pretty decent upside.

We know what Tulo is, we are guessing what those three will be.  This team, and it's fans, have a history of over-rating our prospects by a sizable amount. I often wonder how many quality players we have missed out on over the years as our team hoarded prospects that turned out to be extremely disappointing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Considering how often the Rockies have had to use their other middle infielders when Tulowitzki is on the shelf, there's still plenty room for Santana or Polanco.

 

Trading for Tulowitzki would excite me for 2015 and then I'd spend the next five years filled with dread waiting for the other shoe to drop.  I don't know what scares me more, having to give up one of the young top arms which this team so desperately needs, or being tied to another giant contract that may prohibit the extension of any or all of Sano, Buxton, Berrios or anyone that is deserving.

 

I'm a big picture guy, and I can't see Tulowitzki winning this team a WS in 2015 unless he turned into both an ace starter who also moonlights as a set up guy between starts. 

 

If this team is only allowed to have one glaring offensive hole, can't it be SS? The cheaper option in terms of prospects and dollars is to fix the catcher spot in the off season.

 

so, where do they get that Ace next year or the year after? Because he's not on the roster or in the system?

 

They don't have one glaring hole, they have SS, C, 1B, and CF.....and 1 guy in the bullpen, and yet have still banked 9 wins. You expect this collection to bank 9 wins next year?

[SwainZag]

 

We know what Tulo is, we are guessing what those three will be.  This team, and it's fans, have a history of over-rating our prospects by a sizable amount. I often wonder how many quality players we have missed out on over the years as our team hoarded prospects that turned out to be extremely disappointing.

 

IMO you are also guessing what you are going to be getting from Tulo, especially as he enters his early-mid 30's.  He's a guy who has played in 65% of his teams games over the past 5 seasons.  His defense has slowly been declining since the 2011 season.  Short turn he might look great, long term with his contract and the pieces given up required to acquire him might look like a long term disaster.

[jimbo92107]

 

Considering how often the Rockies have had to use their other middle infielders when Tulowitzki is on the shelf, there's still plenty room for Santana or Polanco.

 

Trading for Tulowitzki would excite me for 2015 and then I'd spend the next five years filled with dread waiting for the other shoe to drop.  I don't know what scares me more, having to give up one of the young top arms which this team so desperately needs, or being tied to another giant contract that may prohibit the extension of any or all of Sano, Buxton, Berrios or anyone that is deserving.

 

I'm a big picture guy, and I can't see Tulowitzki winning this team a WS in 2015 unless he turned into an ace starter who also moonlights as a set up guy between starts. 

 

If this team is only allowed to have one glaring offensive hole, can't it be SS? The cheaper option in terms of prospects and dollars is to fix the catcher spot in the off season.

There's the rub. Even if you pick up Tulo and a good catcher, this Twins team still doesn't have the one thing they really need to win a Series - a top flight ace starter. The teams they'd be facing in the playoffs and Series would definitely have at least one ace, or they won't get there, either.

 

I don't make Tulo-sized moves until AFTER I have one or two ace starters. Before that, you might as well hang onto all your blue- and red-chip prospects. This Twins team will NOT get past KC or Houston with the bunch of #2's and #3's they have now, and they certainly won't beat a team that can march out Greinke and Kershaw twice in five games.

Edited July 21, 2015 by jimbo92107

[Tibs]

 

Not getting him pretty much means Santana stays out there, right? I mean, we are in July, and he's still there........why would anything change unless something really changed?

 

To the person that said Tulo's past means nothing, do you really think Polanco is likely to put up more WAR in the next three years than Tulo?

Wasn't me who said it, but I doubt Polanco will be better than Tulo over the next three years. Polanco is a good hitter, but not near as good as Tulowitzki while I also doubt he will ever put up a season even close to anything Tulowitzki has. Plus he still has to go through the stage of proving himself in the majors.

 

I only have the minor league reports to go off of, but it doesn't sound like he is as good of a defender either. Tulowitzki is a major upgrade over anyone we have.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

People said the same thing about Holliday when he left Coors.  Ooops.  People think it's only about leaving Coors, but it's also about playing a ton of games in parks like Petco, Dodger Stadium and AT&T.  Not exactly hitters parks over the course of his career and not to mention against quality pitching staffs from those teams to boot on a regular basis.Tulo is a great hitter, period. And he's a leader, he has the intangibles too while still being a great player.

I thought I pretty clearly dispelled this a few pages ago. Holliday is no less exempt from it than other players.

 

Coors Field's biggest trait is that it inflates batting average but may or may not have a significant impact on power numbers. Removing a player from Coors has a visible impact on most players because they don't get to spray hits all over the outfield. The stadium is the king of cheap hits.

 

Holliday career numbers: .307 .386 .520 .906

Holliday Coors numbers: .361 .427 .656 1.082

Holliday Busch numbers: .310 .405 .534 .938

 

Playing in the NL West has a minimal impact because while AT&T, Dodger Stadium, and PETCO may sap power numbers, they certainly don't hurt batting average to the tune of .055 points. No stadium outside of Coors can manipulate a player's batting average to that extent.

[jimmer]

 

I thought I pretty clearly dispelled this a few pages ago. Holliday is no less exempt from it than other players.

 

Coors Field's biggest trait is that it inflates batting average but may or may not have a significant impact on power numbers. Removing a player from Coors has a visible impact on most players because they don't get to spray hits all over the outfield. The stadium is the king of cheap hits.

 

Holliday career numbers: .307 .386 .520 .906

Holliday Coors numbers: .361 .427 .656 1.082

Holliday Busch numbers: .310 .405 .534 .938

 

Playing in the NL West has a minimal impact because while AT&T, Dodger Stadium, and PETCO may sap power numbers, they certainly don't hurt batting average to the tune of .055 points. No stadium outside of Coors can manipulate a player's batting average to that extent.

I'm not worried about the BA stat, so yeah, Coors inflates that.  That's good.  I'm saying if we think Tulo would have been some average overall hitting shortstop if he didn't play half his games at Coors, which the post I was responding to seemed to suggest, then I think that's very untrue.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not worried about the BA stat, so yeah, Coors inflates that.  That's good.  I'm saying if we think Tulo would have been some average overall hitting shortstop if he didn't play half his games at Coors, which the post I was responding to seemed to suggest, then I think that's very untrue.

Well, anything you take from BA you have to also remove from SLG so the player ends up profiling quite differently once you remove the Coors effect. Average is the one aspect of a slash line that hits OPS twice (once for OBP, once for SLG).

 

Out of curiosity, I looked up the Rockies' team stats since 2000. It's kinda insane.

 

Since 2000, these are the years the Rockies led the NL in home batting average: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.

 

Since 2000, these are the years the Rockies finished in the top half of the NL in road batting average: ...

 

It hasn't happened. They've never finished higher than tenth.

[AlwaysinModeration]

A couple weeks back I started a forum in the wrong place ("other baseball") about trading for Tulo. It was generally a pipe dream thread starter, and the comments generally acknowledged that.

 

Then I again posted in the "trading prospects thread" of the perfect logic and timing of trading for Tulo, but speculated that TR was too inherently cautious and fond of prospects to make such a bold move.

 

This article, and Jeremy's "little birds" changes a lot, though. This could happen. It's a perfect storm of a position of need, an unexpectedly quick path to competitiveness, an available elite player, a deep farm system, and cap space.

 

If the Twins put together an "untouchable" list (Dozier, Sano, Buxton...plus maybe Berrios...not sure Gibson merits that list), but offer Rockies their choice of a three-player package of MLB players / prospects, I would think it could be done. And the Twins should do it.

 

Tulo has put up 5+WAR 6 times in his career--that's one more 5WAR season than Mauer. He's younger than Mauer. Even if he is only a 4WAR player now in decline, he should put up 4/3.5/3/2.5/2 WAR from now until 2020. And that's conservative.

 

Strike while the iron is hot!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Even discussing Gibson in Tulo trade talks is pure insanity.

 

Give up Gibson, the only pitcher on this squad who is truly above average, for a SS who could begin his decline phase as early as tomorrow.

 

I thought the point was to win in 2015. That seems a lot like robbing Peter to pay Paul and that's not going to bring a championship to Minnesota.

 

Without Gibson, who actually wins a game for the Twins this October? May? Eh... Maybe if you're happy with a 5 IP, 1 ER game. Santana? Nope, can't play. Milone? Maybe - maybe - you put him out there in game four. Pelfrey? LOL.

[DaveW]

 

Even discussing Gibson in Tulo trade talks is pure insanity.

 

Give up Gibson, the only pitcher on this squad who is truly above average, for a SS who could begin his decline phase as early as tomorrow.

 

I thought the point was to win in 2015. That seems a lot like robbing Peter to pay Paul and that's not going to bring a championship to Minnesota.

 

Without Gibson, who actually wins a game for the Twins this October? May? Eh... Too shaky but at least he has a chance. Santana? Nope, can't play. Milone? Maybe - maybe - you put him out there in game four. Pelfrey? LOL.

The only way trading Gibson makes sense is if the Twins think Berrios is ready as of today to come in and take his spot in the rotation and be effective. I don't think that is the case, so I would be very very surprised if Gibson was moved period.

 

I think a playoff rotation of:

1. Gibson

2. Hughes (has pitched very well as of late)

3. May

4. Milone

Could hold their own.

Edited July 21, 2015 by DaveW