Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[DaveW]

2016 Twins lineup:

 

1. Buxton CF

2. Mauer 1B

3. Sano DH

4. Dozier 2B

5. Tulo SS

6. Plouffe 3B

7. Rosario LF

8. Hundley C

9. Hicks RF

 

That's a world series capable lineup right there.

[DaveW]

 

 

 

 

It depends on what Tulo costs. If there's a way to get him without giving up Sano or Buxton, you have to at least give it thought...

 

Nobody is suggesting the Twins give up Sano or Buxton for him, nor would the Twins even entertain it.

It's highly questionable that Lucroy is even on the block anyways.

[amjgt]

A severely declined, age 34, non-Coors-Field-hitting Troy Tulowitzki is still FAR better than anything the Twins have trotted out in the last....... Ever.

[DaveW]

 

A severely declined, age 34, non-Coors-Field-hitting Troy Tulowitzki is still FAR better than anything the Twins have trotted out in the last....... Ever.

Exactly.

All this talk of internal SS options, it should be pointed out that the Twins haven't had an actual productive major league SS since Christian Guzman, and he wasn't even that good, just not fall on his face embarrassing like Nishioka, Castro, Escobar etc

 

The Twins under TR and co have always managed to find decent catchers, its a low point now, but it can be fixed easily, I have much more faith in the Twins finding a catcher without having to give up much then finding a decent SS.

Edited July 21, 2015 by DaveW

[Jham]

What would Jimmy Rollins cost as a comparison? I also feel like we're giving up on esco, and santana too for that matter, when both are probably due for a rebound. Esco if he gets consistent playing time, santana may be slightly rebounding already.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Exactly.

All this talk of internal SS options, it should be pointed out that the Twins haven't had an actual productive major league SS since Christian Guzman, and he wasn't even that good, just not fall on his face embarrassing like Nishioka, Castro, Escobar etc

They had a guy. They traded him away and inexplicably brought him back as an outfielder last season.

 

How about this? Tulo for Kepler, Polanco, and Meyer. Do the Rockies listen? Probably not but that's a deal I could get behind.

[Vanimal46]

I'm with you Dave and Mike on this fight. We're not talking about RB's in the NFL where once they hit 30, they fall off a cliff. If that's the case, we need to talk about trading Dozier, as he's nearing that terrifying age 30 season...Tulo can certainly man the SS position for the next 3-4 years easy, and make the transition to 3B or 1B once Mauer's contract is off the books.

 

Injury concerns.... Yes he gets hurt. I will take that trade off of 100-120 games of greatness at SS, and figure out the times when he's on the DL. Same thing as Rob Gronkowski in the NFL; he may be out 4-5 games a season, but when he's in the lineup he's the best at his position in the sport.

 

How often does a player like Tulo come into the open market for trades with a long term deal in place? I can't recall anyone in recent memory.. If Tulo were a FA this off-season, he would easily get more than his $20 mill price tag.

 

The price makes or breaks this deal. We've ruled out Sano and Buxton. IMO, anyone else could be had for his services.

 

 

[DaveW]

 

Sorry but the Twins already have one big Albatross of a contract in Joe Mauer that hurts this teams payroll structure (Mostly due to a lack of a decent revenue deal from local Television and radio).

They do not need another oft injured player with a big salary, that in the end taking on this deal will only give the Colorado Rockies ownership salary relief. When names like Berrios, Gibson, Sano, Buxton,  get tossed around I just cringe that these are all players the Twins will never be able to buy in free agency. You don't give away your best home grown talent because your second baseman got a long with a guy great, (they will be best pals)  at the All Star game and really likes the guy.

Most teams if not all teams in MLB know the Twins will not even consider giving up Sano so why even insult the GM with that kind of ask? 

It should be noted that Joe Mauer's contract hasn't prevented the Twins from making any moves, keeping players around or signing any FA, in fact, the last two off-seasons have seen the Twins hand out the two highest FA contracts in the teams history. In fact, the Twins are still well "under budget" of where they should and could be. In fact, Joe Mauer has actually provided pretty good production with his contract other than 2014 and the first half of 2015.

[Tibs]

 

Yeah, I'm the baseball pleb, Mr. UZR/150 over a 15 game sample size.

 

It depends on what Tulo costs. If there's a way to get him without giving up Sano or Buxton, you have to at least give it thought... But really, the biggest long-term gains for this team will be made at catcher.

 

Any prospect traded for Tulo is a prospect you can't trade for a guy like LuCroy or Susac or whomever. Plouffe/Arcia isn't going to get you a catcher because a team looking to move a catcher probably isn't interested in Plouffe (ie. they're in a rebuilding phase) and Arcia isn't enough to get a good return. Berrios is your best bankable chip to get a catcher and the Twins need a long-term solution at the position.

 

The Twins don't need a catcher in 2015. They need a catcher in 2015, 2016, 2017...

 

But can you really say the same thing with certainty about shortstop? I can't. The Twins have three viable, though questionable, options at shortstop. They have zero options at catcher.

I have to disagree about shortstop. Polanco still has defensive concerns and there is a good chance he ends up at 2B. He isn't as good as a hitter as Tulowitzki either. Danny Santana clearly needs a lot of work. After that we have Engelb Vielma at high-A who is a great fielder but doesn't hit much. Then we have Nick Gordon at low-A who is easily still a few years away. Tulowitzki is an upgrade over any of those guys while making our lineup and defense better right now. The question with Tulowitzki is how much he will be on the field.

 

Lucroy has at least as much risk as Tulowitzki does. He is a 29 year old catcher who is having his worst season since he was 24 and is only signed through next year.

[DaveW]

 

 

They had a guy. They traded him away and inexplicably brought him back as an outfielder last season.

How about this? Tulo for Kepler, Polanco, and Meyer. Do the Rockies listen? Probably not but that's a deal I could get behind.

I personally would start with an offer of Tulo and Hundley for Kepler, Polanco, May and one of Meyer/Arcia/Vargas.

 

In that deal you get a couple prospects who could crack the top 100 very soon, a mid rotation cost controlled guy in May, and a high risk.high upside guy in Meyer/Arcia.

 

Or maybe you offer Stewart+Polanco+May, I'd be ok with that as well. Stewart is a top 30 prospect, and you still get some close to ML ready help with Polanco, and a ML mid rotation guy in May.

 

It would suck to get rid of Berrios, but at the end of the day I would be ok with it, especially once Berrios gets up to the ML level and gets shelled in Coors

Edited July 21, 2015 by DaveW

[Brock Beauchamp]

I prize Berrios so much because he's capable of two things I value more than Tulo:

 

1. Becoming a legit #2 as early as next season.

 

2. He's the best bet to acquire a legit catcher.

[amjgt]

 

Sorry but the Twins already have one big Albatross of a contract in Joe Mauer that hurts this teams payroll structure (Mostly due to a lack of a decent revenue deal from local Television and radio).

They do not need another oft injured player with a big salary, that in the end taking on this deal will only give the Colorado Rockies ownership salary relief. When names like Berrios, Gibson, Sano, Buxton,  get tossed around I just cringe that these are all players the Twins will never be able to buy in free agency. You don't give away your best home grown talent because your second baseman got a long with a guy great, (they will be best pals)  at the All Star game and really likes the guy.

Most teams if not all teams in MLB know the Twins will not even consider giving up Sano so why even insult the GM with that kind of ask? 

 

All of those young players will be under team control for at least a year past when Tulo's contract is up and 3 years past when Mauer's is up.

 

I guess Gibson's team-control years might not overlap with Tulo, not sure of his exact service time situation, at the moment. But you get the point.

[Ultima Ratio]

Mauer + Nolasco for Tulo + Hundley.  Do it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

500+ PA 5 years.

And yeah, the injury concern is why the price for him isn't super sky high, if he was a 100% sure thing to play 162 games a year, then the asking price likely starts at Buxton PLUS Berrios and more.

 

Yeah, I somehow goofed on that.  Even still, three of the last four years have not been positive in this regard.

 

That really worries me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have to disagree about shortstop. Polanco still has defensive concerns and there is a good chance he ends up at 2B. He isn't as good as a hitter as Tulowitzki either. Danny Santana clearly needs a lot of work. After that we have Engelb Vielma at high-A who is a great fielder but doesn't hit much. Then we have Nick Gordon at low-A who is easily still a few years away. Tulowitzki is an upgrade over any of those guys while making our lineup and defense better right now. The question with Tulowitzki is how much he will be on the field.

 

Lucroy has at least as much risk as Tulowitzki does. He is a 29 year old catcher who is having his worst season since he was 24 and is only signed through next year.

Sure, there are concerns with the Twins SS prospects but my point is the Twins HAVE SS prospects. Catcher on the other hand...

[Dantes929]

 

.820 OPS away from Coors is still amazing for a SS.

Its true but that is the split you should be dealing with.   None of his future games are likely to be at Coors if we get him and the splits are quite different. .819 OPS should cost much less than an .889 OPS.     I would give up Ervin Santana, Arcia and Polanco.    You devalue pitching from the NL and you devalue hitters from Colorado.     The three I mentioned would do quite well at Coors field.

[DaveW]

 

Sure, there are concerns with the Twins SS prospects but my point is the Twins HAVE SS prospects. Catcher on the other hand...

Turner is a decent Catching prospect, he has been hitting better as of late.

 

He has his issues no doubt, but so do Polanco and Santana as mentioned above. The reality is its a lot harder to find a SS who sticks then a catcher.

[DaveW]

 

 

 .819 OPS should cost much less than an .889 OPS.   

It is costing less, that is why the Twins wouldn't trade Sano or Buxton for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Turner is a decent Catching prospect, he has been hitting better as of late.

 

He has his issues no doubt, but so do Polanco and Santana as mentioned above. The reality is its a lot harder to find a SS who sticks then a catcher.

I'd be shocked to see Turner in Minnesota before September of 2016, especially given how 2015 has gone for him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Lucroy has at least as much risk as Tulowitzki does. He is a 29 year old catcher who is having his worst season since he was 24 and is only signed through next year.

Not just Lucroy, but basically all of our potential catching targets have this risk.  Derek Norris has a 91 OPS+ this year.  Plawecki hasn't done anything yet.  Phegley is 27 years old and was deemed expendable by the White Sox.  Susac has been good but far from great, and he'd probably be the hardest to get because his team is very much in contention and has an asset at catcher they want to protect.

 

Tulowitzki is guaranteed to be a very good MLB player right now and for the immediate future, with a demonstrated potential for spikes of greatness too.

 

If a Berrios led package could do it, I think you'd have to pull the trigger rather than save him and wait for a good young catcher that may not exist.

[amjgt]

 

2016 Twins lineup:

 

1. Buxton CF

2. Mauer 1B

3. Sano DH

4. Dozier 2B

5. Tulo SS

6. Plouffe 3B

7. Rosario LF

8. Hundley C

9. Hicks RF

 

That's a world series capable lineup right there.

 

Play Ball!!!

[jorgenswest]

Yeah there is, and that reason is he isn't a good defensive SS at all and he has zero range. If he was good or had any range, then the Twins wouldn't have lost the 10 inning game against Oakland, any real SS would have made the routine play and had the Oakland hitter out by 4 steps, instead you have Escobar who had to dive because of his lack of range, and his lack of arm failed to even get the runner at that point anyways.

I was at the game. Your description in no way fits what I saw. Perhaps you were at the game also and saw it different. I don't see how anyone could see range and movement on TV.

[Steve Lein]

 

You can never have too much pitching, especially starting pitching.  If you think you do, the baseball gods will bite you in the ass.  Injuries.  Dead arms.  Inexcpicable loss of control.  Bullpen so bad starters have to throw 8 innings every night.  The day you think you have too much starting pitching is the day you had better start looking for more.

 

I agree with that, but look where they already are now with May on the outside of the rotation looking in. That situation doesn't change much in the future. Someone in this situation is likely to be worth more to another team than the Twins in the future. It's called maximizing your assets.

[h2oface]

I would love to have Tulo on this team, and get over the hope of Santana or Escobar and Polanco. I have been pushing for it all year, and taken the "experts disdain". Time to stop being cheap, and redundant with prospects, and grab a tried and true pro. TULO TULO TULO! Nice to see the wagon letting the band play now.

[Tibs]

 

Sure, there are concerns with the Twins SS prospects but my point is the Twins HAVE SS prospects. Catcher on the other hand...

I agree with that. I just think that Tulowitzki could be a huge upgrade for the Twins and be better for this team than trading for a catcher. Trading for catchers also makes me nervous because of how easily they can be injured and have their production fall off (which is ironic when talking about Tulowitzki)

[DaveW]

 

Not just Lucroy, but basically all of our potential catching targets have this risk.  Derek Norris has a 91 OPS+ this year.  Plawecki hasn't done anything yet.  Phegley is 27 years old and was deemed expendable by the White Sox.  Susac has been good but far from great, and he'd probably be the hardest to get because his team is very much in contention and has an asset at catcher they want to protect.

 

This is a good point, catchers decline significantly quicker then SS and are at much more of a risk to "fall off a cliff" production wise.

Hell look at guys like Weiters and Posey, both the future(s) of the position, neither one are playing every day at the position and Posey is looking more and more like 1B will be his primary position sooner rather than later.

[DaveW]

 

 

I was at the game. Your description in no way fits what I saw. Perhaps you were at the game also and saw it different. I don't see how anyone could see range and movement on TV.

I have watched enough baseball and seen enough at bats to know what should be a routine play, the only excuse that Escobar would have is if he was running over to cover a SB attempt, of course since there was no player on 1st at the time that isn't the case.

I also have been to enough games in person to come to the realization that Escoabr just doesn't have the range to be a major league SS. It's nothing against him, it's just the reality of the situation. Santana on the other hand has the range, but makes too many mistakes defensively overall and there are big questions about his bat.

[amjgt]

I'm encouraged that the Twins are talking to Colorado. Not because I think they are going to come to an agreement, but because it shows me the Twins are at least thinking big. With big thoughts, often times come big moves. 

 

I'd be a little skeptical if this was only leaked to Walters or Neal, or whoever. The fact that Jeremy got his hands on the info leads me to believe that's it is a) a real conversation taking place between the teams, and not just trade scraps being used to placate the masses.

[adorduan]

After the last 4 years of watching horrible pitching,  I'm blown away that people want to trade way the cheap, good pitching we finally have.

[DaveW]

 

After the last 4 years of watching horrible pitching,  I'm blown away that people want to trade way the cheap, good pitching we finally have.

After the last 20 years of watching horrible SS play, I am blown away that people don't want to trade for a hall of fame caliber SS.