Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[DaveW]

 

 

Realistically how many more years is Tulo still a SS?  2-3 years tops?  The idea of Tulo is intriguing but I say the Twins roll with what we have right now and not give up any top prospects or Major League level players.

He is only 30, there are plenty of SS that are still effective into their mid 30's, I would say 5-6 years tops, with 4-5 years more likely.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's about opportunity cost. The Twins need Berrios because their rotation isn't young enough or good enough yet and after Jose, there's no help on the horizon for at least 12 months, probably more like 24 months.

 

The Twins also have a handful of decent, though unspectacular, shortstops. One of them should be able to fill the void for a year or two.

 

If we were talking about a good catcher, Berrios is definitely on the table because the Twins have other starting pitching prospects but absolutely zero legitimate catching prospects.

 

But for a 30 year old shortstop? No, I don't think that's a good use of resources. Tulo may be a 5 WAR player but a 2 WAR catcher has the same net effect for the Minnesota Twins and there's zero chance the catching situation will improve in 2015 or 2016 unless Pinto magically stops being awful behind the dish.

 

So go find a catcher. Chances are it might not even cost you Berrios. You might be able to get it done for Kepler + stuff. You make the same net team improvement but you get to keep your "big three" in the process and you're not on the hook for nearly $100m during a decline phase.

 

so, they are good enough next year, w/o 9 banked wins, with the same players to go all in? How does that work, exactly?

 

Or are you suggesting they are going to sign ANOTHER SP, and C and SS? I'm confused, frankly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Lol, comparing him to Walker who played like 10 years ago....

I will mention again, his .819 OPS (road) still makes him the 2nd best hitting SS this year, and top 1,2 or 3 in pretty much each of the last 5 years as well.

 

That also doesn't assume that the majority of all players hit better at home then on the road, so his target field splits could be expected to actually be a bit higher than an already great .819.

It wasn't a comparison to Walker or even an attempt to diminish Tulo's ability. It's a fact that players coming out of Coors often suffer a large decline in batting average because they no longer get to spray balls into an outfield the size a Wal-Mart parking lot.

 

Or maybe you can explain why the Rockies, as a team, perennially have a .070-.110 drop in batting average between their home and road games. Or maybe you can explain why the Rockies lead the NL in home batting average almost every single year, yet rarely crack the top half of the NL in road batting average.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Negative 15.1 UZR/150 at SS in 2015,

Did you just use UZR/150 over a 150 inning sample size?

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is reason to be excited about the Twins as they move towards 2017. By then key young players will have hundreds of games under their belts. They could really mess that up committing to Tulowitzki.

Look at his defensive metrics. You may not buy the metric in terms of how it equates to runs but you can see the steady decline since his rookie year. This year he is below average. By 2017 or possibly earlier he won't be a shortstop. Where are they going to play him and his big contract. He could easily join Joe Mauer making 20 million for ordinary offense from a corner position. They will also still have the burden of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco's contracts and performance from them that might equate to a fifth starter or worse.

At the same time they have key young players entering their prime, they will have huge commitments to decline phase players handcuffing the front office and ensuring the team will be mediocre.

The Rockies need to find a team foolish enough to take this contract. I hope it isn't the Twins.

 

now we are punting 2015 and 2016, and can't expect a good team until 2017? Man, those bars keep moving....

[TheLeviathan]

I gotta say, some people are making solid arguments against the home/road split "problem".

 

But the biggest issue is still the fact that he's only made it to 500 at-bats three times in his entire career.  Only 300 or so (and sometimes less) the last three years.  That's the scariest part.

[DaveW]

 

It wasn't a comparison to Walker or even an attempt to diminish Tulo's ability. It's a fact that players coming out of Coors often suffer a large decline in batting average because they no longer get to spray balls into an outfield the size a Wal-Mart parking lot.

 

Or maybe you can explain why the Rockies, as a team, perennially have a .070-.110 drop in batting average between their home and road games. Or maybe you can explain why the Rockies lead the NL in home batting average almost every single year, yet rarely crack the top half of the NL in road batting average.

I don't care about the rest of the Rockies, I care that Tulo and his .819 road OPS makes him one of the best 3 hitting SS each of the last 5+ years., often times being tops overall!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

so, they are good enough next year, w/o 9 banked wins, with the same players to go all in? How does that work, exactly?

 

Or are you suggesting they are going to sign ANOTHER SP, and C and SS? I'm confused, frankly.

I'm all in on a catcher now. They need to let the rotation play out. The bullpen needs help. That's how I'd approach this July and the offseason.

 

I think the Twins should try to incrementally improve the team right now and they should definitely improve the team this offseason.

 

They won't have the same players next season. Every single player that matters is under control for 2016 and Buxton/Sano have a total of 110 PAs in a Twins uniform.

 

Also, both are injured right now.

[jorgenswest]

 

Uh actually no it doesn't Brock not even close. Unless you claim that Suzuki is a negative 2.0 WAR player or something, which he isn't, even with his garbage year at the plate he is only on pace for -0.5.

 

Meanwhile:
Santana is currently a - (negative) 0.8 WAR player

Escobar is currently a -(negaivte)0.5 WAR player

So really a 5 WAR SS would have a net effect of a 6 WAR player.

 

So yeah,  next time you are going to make things up try for something a tad less preposterous.

You can't use WAR that way. Escobar gets a huge deduction for starting games in LF. He is getting compared to the bat of a replacement level LF. You need to look at the splits and probably need to use last year also to get enough fielding data.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Escobar's WAR as a SS is 0.5 (positive) in just 69 PA!

 

Tulowitzki is 1.7 as a SS in 322 PA.

 

The Twins are getting the median production from their shortstop position this year and that production is being pulled down by Danny Santana. They can fix the position by playing Escobar and Nunez (using Nunez when they  throw a fly ball pitcher)

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

I gotta say, some people are making solid arguments against the home/road split "problem".

 

But the biggest issue is still the fact that he's only made it to 500 at-bats three times in his entire career.  Only 300 or so (and sometimes less) the last three years.  That's the scariest part.

500+ PA 5 years.

And yeah, the injury concern is why the price for him isn't super sky high, if he was a 100% sure thing to play 162 games a year, then the asking price likely starts at Buxton PLUS Berrios and more.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I gotta say, some people are making solid arguments against the home/road split "problem".

 

But the biggest issue is still the fact that he's only made it to 500 at-bats three times in his entire career.  Only 300 or so (and sometimes less) the last three years.  That's the scariest part.

 

And still put up 5 WAR every year.....then add 1 WAR for his replacement! wow.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't care about the rest of the Rockies, I care that Tulo and his .819 road OPS makes him one of the best 3 hitting SS each of the last 5+ years., often times being tops overall!

If you're fine with the .819 road OPS, that's a fair argument.

 

But don't expect better than that. Because the dip comes from BA, it therefore impacts both OBP and SLG. That means if Tulo only hits extra singles in Coors that he doesn't hit on the road (which we know is silly), roughly .100 of his .150 OPS home/road split is due to that drop in batting average (.050 in OBP, .050 in SLG).

[TheLeviathan]

 

And still put up 5 WAR every year.....then add 1 WAR for his replacement! wow.....

 

Frankly, to hell with WAR in a situation like that, it's not the best use of the stat.

 

 If your best player can't take the field that often it's a problem and it's unlikely to get better with age.

[DaveW]

 

 

You can't use WAR that way. Escobar gets a huge deduction for starting games in LF. He is getting compared to the bat of a replacement level LF. You need to look at the splits and probably need to use last year also to get enough fielding data.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Escobar's WAR as a SS is 0.5 (positive) in just 69 PA!

 

Tulowitzki is 1.7 as a SS in 322 PA.

 

The Twins are getting the median production from their shortstop position this year and that production is being pulled down by Danny Santana. They can fix the position by playing Escobar and Nunez (using Nunez when they  throw a fly ball pitcher)

Nunez should not be playing SS at the major league level, for any time, frankly he shouldn't even be on a contending teams roster all together.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You can't use WAR that way. Escobar gets a huge deduction for starting games in LF. He is getting compared to the bat of a replacement level LF. You need to look at the splits and probably need to use last year also to get enough fielding data.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Escobar's WAR as a SS is 0.5 (positive) in just 69 PA!

 

Tulowitzki is 1.7 as a SS in 322 PA.

 

The Twins are getting the median production from their shortstop position this year and that production is being pulled down by Danny Santana. They can fix the position by playing Escobar and Nunez (using Nunez when they  throw a fly ball pitcher)

This. So much this.

 

I rarely get furious at the Twins but I'm approaching that point with Escobar. There's no good &^%$ing reason why he isn't the starting SS.

[DaveW]

 

 

now we are punting 2015 and 2016, and can't expect a good team until 2017? Man, those bars keep moving....

Twins have the third best record in the AL and folks are all like: "Nope, better punt this year! There is question marks in the bullpen! and other places" implying that every other team doesn't have question marks.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Twins have the third best record in the AL and folks are all like: "Nope, better punt this year! There is question marks in the bullpen! and other places" implying that every other team doesn't have question marks.

What both sides are ignoring is that there's a huge middle ground between "punt" and "all-in".

 

I'm all for tempered, rational acquisitions to keep the team in the hunt this season. What I'm against is pushing all the chips into the middle of the table.

[DaveW]

 

 

There's no good &^%$ing reason why he isn't the starting SS.

Yeah there is, and that reason is he isn't a good defensive SS at all and he has zero range. If he was good or had any range, then the Twins wouldn't have lost the 10 inning game against Oakland, any real SS would have made the routine play and had the Oakland hitter out by 4 steps, instead you have Escobar who had to dive because of his lack of range, and his lack of arm failed to even get the runner at that point anyways.

[SwainZag]

 

What both sides are ignoring is that there's a huge middle ground between "punt" and "all-in".

 

I'm all for tempered, rational acquisitions to keep the team in the hunt this season. What I'm against is pushing all the chips into the middle of the table.

Thank you.  If the Twins do not move all their chips in and not aim for a WS title this year, that doesn't meant they have punted the season.

[DaveW]

 

 

What both sides are ignoring is that there's a huge middle ground between "punt" and "all-in".

 

I'm all for tempered, rational acquisitions to keep the team in the hunt this season. What I'm against is pushing all the chips into the middle of the table.

Trading just ONE (berrios) of the Twins prospects and a couple other solid but not great prospects in a very deep system is not pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table. Maybe if it was for a rental, but Tulo is not a rental and would be a significant upgrade for the next 4 years at the very least.

[DaveW]

 

 

Thank you.  If the Twins do not move all their chips in and not aim for a WS title this year, that doesn't meant they have punted the season.

But Tulo gives the Twins a better shot at winning the world series not only this year, but also as well  in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

[TheLeviathan]

A package lead by Berrios I could see, but not Gibson.  That would be an instant deal-breaker for me.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah there is, and that reason is he isn't a good defensive SS at all and he has zero range. If he was good or had any range, then the Twins wouldn't have lost the 10 inning game against Oakland, any real SS would have made the routine play and had the Oakland hitter out by 4 steps, instead you have Escobar who had to dive because of his lack of range, and his lack of arm failed to even get the runner at that point anyways.

My eyes and defensive metrics disagree with you. Escobar is a middling defensive shortstop (career -3 DRS, 1.8 UZR). His bat is one of a middling offensive shortstop.

 

As a stop-gap player, that's just fine, particularly when you have a sucking black hole at starting catcher and a bullpen that last struck out the side during the Carter administration.

[tobi0040]

 

We can't let past bad contracts prevent us from adding good players, though.  If we are seriously debating acquiring Troy Tulowitzki, we should not shrug and say "if only we hadn't signed Nolasco..."

 

Is that realistic though?  I think the Twins would absolutely factor in what we have in obligations as well as potential upcoming obligations into taking on a $150M deal.

Edited July 21, 2015 by tobi0040

[DaveW]

 

A package lead by Berrios I could see, but not Gibson.  That would be an instant deal-breaker for me.  

I agree with this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But Tulo gives the Twins a better shot at winning the world series not only this year, but also as well  in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

I'll give you 2016 but it gets murky after that and I seriously doubt Tulo is a critical piece of the 2019 World Champion Minnesota Twins.

[Willihammer]

 

Twins have the third best record in the AL and folks are all like: "Nope, better punt this year! There is question marks in the bullpen! and other places" implying that every other team doesn't have question marks.

I'm with you there. Lucky or unlucky, the Twins 50 wins are banked and now they have a real shot. Its possible to trade prospects for a player that helps in the near and mid-term, but Tulo's not that guy IMO.

[DaveW]

 

 

 particularly when you have a sucking black hole at starting catcher.

Sign, you can be such a baseball pleb at times Brock.

 

Getting Tulo in no way prevents the Twins from finding an upgrade for Suzuki. They can get AJ for next to nothing or have the Rockies ship over Hundley as well.

 

Plus in the off-season you can always trade a guy like Plouffe or Arcia for a longer term fit at catcher if you need be.

[DaveW]

 

 

I'll give you 2016 but it gets murky after that and I seriously doubt Tulo is a critical piece of the 2019 World Champion Minnesota Twins.

in 2018 he will only be 33, we are't talking about a current 35 year old player, he is only 30 now, to imply he suddenly won't be an asset in his early 30's is pretty silly.

Even if he has to move off of SS in 2018 (pretty unlikely) his .819 road OPS still plays anywhere (almost .50 points higher then Plouffe in his breakout year this year)

Edited July 21, 2015 by DaveW

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sign, you can be such a baseball pleb at times Brock.

 

Getting Tulo in no way prevents the Twins from finding an upgrade for Suzuki. They can get AJ for next to nothing or have the Rockies ship over Hundley as well.

 

Plus in the off-season you can always trade a guy like Plouffe or Arcia for a longer term fit at catcher if you need be.

Yeah, I'm the baseball pleb, Mr. UZR/150 over a 15 game sample size.

 

It depends on what Tulo costs. If there's a way to get him without giving up Sano or Buxton, you have to at least give it thought... But really, the biggest long-term gains for this team will be made at catcher.

 

Any prospect traded for Tulo is a prospect you can't trade for a guy like LuCroy or Susac or whomever. Plouffe/Arcia isn't going to get you a catcher because a team looking to move a catcher probably isn't interested in Plouffe (ie. they're in a rebuilding phase) and Arcia isn't enough to get a good return. Berrios is your best bankable chip to get a catcher and the Twins need a long-term solution at the position.

 

The Twins don't need a catcher in 2015. They need a catcher in 2015, 2016, 2017...

 

But can you really say the same thing with certainty about shortstop? I can't. The Twins have three viable, though questionable, options at shortstop. They have zero options at catcher.