Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[nicksaviking]

 

Its hard to imagine a better candidate in all of baseball turning into an albatross in the next 1-2 years. All the red flags are there (injury history, declining power, increasing K's, etc).

 

He couldn't stay on the field in his 20s. I'd wager his 30s will only get worse.

 

And even if he does stay on the field, I can't imagine it will be at SS for long and 1B, 2B, 3B and the corner OF spots already have occupancy issues.

 

 

[Winston Smith]

Certainly not going to get him without Duensing being included.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Good scoop, but you know Jeremy, if you are looking to further your jounalistic career, you might want to consider breaking this news on something a little more high profile than Twinsdaily!

 

Either way, we know MLBTR monitors this site, they may pick up on this and credit you.

 

I'm not looking to further my journalistic career. There's no "scoop" here. We all come here for the same reason.

 

Plus, it MLBTR posted a link every time two teams had a conversation... we'd stop going to that site.

[laloesch]

Gibson AND Sano!  LOL the Rockies truly are shooting for the moon. There is no way in a million years I'd give up Gibson AND Sano for Tulowitzki, no way.  In fact I'm hesitant to even give up Gibson because he's just now entering his prime and we'd be selling low. 

 

Maybe Gibson + 1 other starter (take your pick from Nolasco, Milone, Santana, Pelfrey(not sure why they would want him), & any of the AAA's w/ the exception of Berrios & May.  If they really want Meyer than be willing to pay a SUBSTANTIAL part of Tulowitzki's salary.  

Edited July 21, 2015 by laloesch

[Mike Sixel]

I do agree, there is risk here........but I'd still consider it.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

Gibson AND Sano!  LOL the Rockies truly are shooting for the moon. There is no way in a million years I'd give up Gibson and Sano for Tulowitzki, no way.  Maybe Gibson + 1 other starter (take your pick from Nolasco, Milone, Pelfrey, & any of the AAA's w/ the exception of Berrios.  If they want more then they need to be willing to pay part of his salary for the remainder of that deal.  

 

They didn't ask for them together, to my knowledge. But even if they did, you can't ever make a reasonable trade request to start the conversation. That risks the other teams simply saying "yes" and you wishing you asked for more.

 

The Twins asked for Eduardo Rodriguez when the Orioles claimed Josh Willingham. The Orioles said no. The Twins didn't feel motivated to take less. 

 

The Rockies asking for Gibson-plus or Sano, while chipping in cash, isn't a bad place to start. Plus, the Rockies have more to offer - namely bullpen guys - so having an ongoing dialogue is pretty valuable too.

[SwainZag]

If you are willing to give up Berrios or Gibson, I'd rather see a trade with the Brewers for Lucroy.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

If you are willing to give up Berrios or Gibson, I'd rather see a trade with the Brewers for Lucroy.

 

That's fair. And I'd hope those conversations are happening too.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm not looking to further my journalistic career. There's no "scoop" here. We all come here for the same reason.

 

Plus, it MLBTR posted a link every time two teams had a conversation... we'd stop going to that site.

 

I think you're underestimating the size of the prize in the conversation.  If the Yankees or Red Sox had had a conversation with the Rockies about Tulowitzki's favorite flavor of ice cream it would lead off SportsCenter.

 

Though to be fair, I check out MLBTR a ton, I haven't watched SportsCenter since about when Tulowitzki was a rookie.

[DJL44]

I'd be interested in trading established major leaguers for Tulowitzki (Ervin Santana, Tommy Milone and Trevor Plouffe?) but young talent not so much.

 

Maybe they would bite on a quantity-over-quality package of Danny Santana, Adam Brett Walker, Alex Meyer and Kohl Stewart but unlikely.

Edited July 21, 2015 by DJL44

[DaveW]

 

Its hard to imagine a better candidate in all of baseball turning into an albatross in the next 1-2 years. All the red flags are there (injury history, declining power, increasing K's, etc).

 

He couldn't stay on the field in his 20s. I'd wager his 30s will only get worse.

Even with his injury in 2014 he still put up a 5.4 WAR.

 

Tulo WAR numbers:

2009: 5.4

2010: 5.6

2011: 5.2

2012: 1.2

2013: 5.3

2014: 5.3

 

His K rate and BB rate this year are a bit concerning, but I think he can rebound, nad also that may be the reason why the Twins can get him at a bit of a discount now instead of having to give up a Sano like prospect. At 30 years old  he very likely still has another 3-4 elite seasons in him before the real decline happens.

 

[DaveW]

 

 

I'd be interested in trading established major leaguers for Tulowitzki (Ervin Santana, Tommy Milone and Trevor Plouffe?) but young talent not so much.

 

Maybe they would bite on a quantity-over-quality package of Danny Santana, Adam Brett Walker, Alex Meyer and Kohl Stewart but unlikely

Milone doesn't have any real value on the trade market, Santana won't get traded 3 starts into his Twins career and the Rockies already have one of the best 3rd baseman in the game, Plouffe is of no interest to them.

 

They aren't giong to take a bunch of current AAAA types like Santana, Walker and Meyer for him, and Stewart is just too far away to headline a deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Tulo is a great player but I see a lot of downside in him and not much upside.

 

He's in his age 30 season. As a shortstop, that's getting a little long in the tooth.

 

Unsurprisingly, defensive metrics aren't a fan of a 30 year old shortstop. From 2007-2011, Tulo had a +77 DRS. That's great! From 2012-2015, it's +6. Good but definitely not anything close to great.

 

Tulo has a .958 home OPS and an .819 road OPS for his career. Shocking. He's very good outside Coors Field but he's far from great. His home numbers are skewing the overall perception of him as a player and that's not even factoring in diminishing returns as he ages through his 30s.

 

He is guaranteed $94m through 2020 with a $15m option for 2021. He will be 36 years old at that point.

 

Again, Tulo is a great player right now. I don't think the Twins should be prioritizing "right now" that heavily, especially when that prioritization will hurt in later years.

[d-mac]

Ummmm... just say no. Why are we talking about trading for a 30+ year old player who has managed to play 140 games in a year once since 2009 and has missed significant playing time in 5 of his 8 full years as a regular. Furthermore he plays half his home games at Coors Field and is under a mega-huge contract for another 5 years. May I remind everyone how much Mauer's has hamstrung the team, soaking up over 25% for an aging, injury prone vet. And why are we talking about trading away one of the few, young, cheap and established pitchers in the rotation (Gibson) and the only pitcher left in the minors with a shot at giving us a number one- (Berrios). 

 

If we are going to mortgage the future- do it for Lucroy or an ace pitcher. Just say no to Tulo. 

[gocgo]

Ugh!  As much as I like Tulo, that's a Maueresk type of contract to take on for the next 5 years.  Health is a concern.  Gonna have to pass.

[DaveW]

Fwiw his career and 2015 road splits would be the twins 3rd best OPS in the lineup right behind Sano and Dozier. Considering he is a 5 WAR a year player and the combo of Escobar, Santana and Nunez is about a 1 WAR player you instantly have a much better team.

[Mike Sixel]

He's so good, that he still puts up 4-5 WAR every year.....every stinking year. And his OPS outside Coors only looks bad compared to the ridiculous numbers in Coors. those numbers are still very, very good.

 

I understand the counter argument, but at some point you play to win. I was hoping a year that you are 9 games over .500 after the ASB would be one of those years, but I guess we can just wait until next year, when the next reason to try not to win comes up.....

[troyhobbs]

Remember E Santana cannot pitch in the 2015 playoffs should the Twins make it so moving Gibson is especially counter productive this year. Mad props if they can unload Nolasco in ANY sort of deal and my gut feeling is that Polanco is a better player than D Santana so reluctant to see Polanco moved at this point. So I'd probably do Berrios, Nolasco, D Santana for Tulo.

[DaveW]

Also while I would love for the Twins to pull off the trade, I think the mets are the more likely destination, they desperately need some bars and have an absurd amount of young pitching and prospects that could be traded.

[DaveW]

Remember E Santana cannot pitch in the 2015 playoffs should the Twins make it so moving Gibson is especially counter productive this year. Mad props if they can unload Nolasco in ANY sort of deal and my gut feeling is that Polanco is a better player than D Santana so reluctant to see Polanco moved at this point. So I'd probably do Berrios, Nolasco, D Santana for Tulo.

if you have Tulo and Dozier for the next several years there isn't really a place for Polanco on the roster anyways.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He's so good, that he still puts up 4-5 WAR every year.....every stinking year. And his OPS outside Coors only looks bad compared to the ridiculous numbers in Coors. those numbers are still very, very good.

 

I understand the counter argument, but at some point you play to win. I was hoping a year that you are 9 games over .500 after the ASB would be one of those years, but I guess we can just wait until next year, when the next reason to try not to win comes up.....

Playing to win only makes sense when you feel you have a solid foundation, not because you're eight games over .500 largely due to luck and good timing.

 

If the Twins pick up Tulo, they still don't have a competent playoff rotation, they still have huge question marks in the outfield and DH, and they still have a giant blackhole at catcher.

 

If anything, all of those problems are worse because you had to give up so much to get Tulo in the first place.

 

He's a good player and I'd love to see the Twins acquire someone of his ability but the team is too flawed and the price too great to pull the trigger on that move in 2015.

 

I mean, if they can somehow manage to convince the Rockies to take a bunch of expendable players in the deal (Meyer, Polanco, Kepler), then yeah, you do that... but that's not reality. The price for Tulo is going to start with Buxton, Sano, or Berrios. That's too steep a price on a flawed Twins team. They need those pieces to round out all those flaws.

[DaveW]

Getting Tulo not only helps compete in 2015, but in 2016-2020 as well Brock... He likely adds 2-3 wins on his own in 2015 over the current SS solutions the Twins have, if they don't include Gibson in the trade I don't see how you can say they are making their holes worse and the team worse.

Edited July 21, 2015 by DaveW

[Jham]

Tulo is a huge immediate upgrade.  I have a little trouble stomaching the contract when guys like Perkins and Mauer will either have to be extended or traded soon, and guys like Dozier, although extended, and Plouffe will be arb eligible, and then the Sano's, Buxton's, and Gibson's of the world will likely be looking for paydays as well.  Providing we don't want to wait to see FA or arbitration, we're going to have to make a lot of expensive decisions in the near near future.  

 

Re: Nolasco being traded.  Can players be traded from the 60 day DL?  A quick search showed yes, but you need commissioner approval?  Sounds like a dumb fantasy football rule.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Playing to win only makes sense when you feel you have a solid foundation, not because you're eight games over .500 largely due to luck and good timing.

 

If the Twins pick up Tulo, they still don't have a competent playoff rotation, they still have huge question marks in the outfield and DH, and they still have a giant blackhole at catcher.

 

If anything, all of those problems are worse because you had to give up so much to get Tulo in the first place.

 

He's a good player and I'd love to see the Twins acquire someone of his ability but the team is too flawed and the price too great to pull the trigger on that move in 2015.

 

I mean, if they can somehow manage to convince the Rockies to take a bunch of expendable players in the deal (Meyer, Polanco, Kepler), then yeah, you do that... but that's not reality. The price for Tulo is going to start with Buxton, Sano, or Berrios. That's too steep a price on a flawed Twins team. They need those pieces to round out all those flaws.

 

and you plan to fix those flaws, w/o making a trade next year, how? Who is the FA C or SS or SP they will sign to magically create a team w/o a flaw?

 

yes, they have been lucky, but what are the odds they are lucky next year? They have banked these wins, wins they don't have next year or the year after.........should they just give up that asset for the year?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tulo has a .958 home OPS and an .819 road OPS for his career. Shocking. He's very good outside Coors Field but he's far from great. His home numbers are skewing the overall perception of him as a player and that's not even factoring in diminishing returns as he ages through his 30s.

That's not that unusual, is it?  Matt Holliday had a 1.072/.810 home/road OPS split in Colorado (ages 24-29).  Since then?  .911/.842 split in St. Louis, ages 30-35.

[dxpavelka]

 

I wouldn't really "like" any deal that brought Tulo here if it means sending Gibson or Berrios off, along with whatever else they needed to get it done (absolutely "NO WAY" on Buxton or Sano), but this is kind of a problem that was created the last few seasons using Free Agency to fix the rotation.

 

They have Ricky Nolasco at $12MIL/year through 2017.

Phil Hughes at basically $13MIL/year through 2019.

Ervin Santana at 13.4MIL/year through 2018.

 

Then Gibson under team control through 2019, Milone under control through 2018, and May under control through 2020.

 

Add in names like Meyer and Berrios, and suddenly you have way too many pitchers for not enough spots through the next three seasons.

 

Would anyone else consider this a surplus? We probably should, so theoretically the best thing the Twins can do for their short and long term future is use this surplus to improve other areas. Shortstop certainly is a good spot to start.

 

If they would take Berrios or Gibson, then Arcia, Nolasco, and perhaps Polanco or another fringe top 10 guy, I think you'd have to do it. Is that a deal they would want? Not so sure about that, but that's about as much as I would want the Twins to spend. Maybe Meyer's name gets thrown in, and I'd certainly want Hundley or a RP's name from their side too.

You can never have too much pitching, especially starting pitching.  If you think you do, the baseball gods will bite you in the ass.  Injuries.  Dead arms.  Inexcpicable loss of control.  Bullpen so bad starters have to throw 8 innings every night.  The day you think you have too much starting pitching is the day you had better start looking for more.

[Willihammer]

 

Tulo is a huge immediate upgrade.  I have a little trouble stomaching the contract when guys like Perkins and Mauer will either have to be extended or traded soon, and guys like Dozier, although extended, and Plouffe will be arb eligible, and then the Sano's, Buxton's, and Gibson's of the world will likely be looking for paydays as well.  Providing we don't want to wait to see FA or arbitration, we're going to have to make a lot of expensive decisions in the near near future.  

 

Re: Nolasco being traded.  Can players be traded from the 60 day DL?  A quick search showed yes, but you need commissioner approval?  Sounds like a dumb fantasy football rule.

I hate to break it to you but both Mauer and Perkins are under long term contract.

[Mike Sixel]

If only Mauer wasn't......you could slide Tulo to 1B when Gordon is ready. That would be nice.

[DaveW]

 

 

 

If the Twins pick up Tulo, they still don't have a competent playoff rotation, they still have huge question marks in the outfield and DH, and they still have a giant blackhole at catcher.

 

Gibson, Hughes, May could be a halfway decent playoff rotation. How do they have a huge question at DH? Have you not seen that Sano kid they called up?

 

OF, I wouldn't call those huge question marks, if one of Hicks or Rosario start to struggle you have Arcia and Buxton ready to step in. Catcher can be fixed by trading a PTNBL type for AJ.

[Brock Beauchamp]

and you plan to fix those flaws, w/o making a trade next year, how? Who is the FA C or SS or SP they will sign to magically create a team w/o a flaw?

 

yes, they have been lucky, but what are the odds they are lucky next year? They have banked these wins, wins they don't have next year or the year after.........should they just give up that asset for the year?

I don't want to make the playoffs, I want to win in the playoffs. This Twins team doesn't have much over 100 PAs from their two top 10 prospects.

 

Their best chance of winning in the playoffs is by keeping their best young players and letting them mature.

 

This team is a few games UNDER .500 over the past 6-8 weeks. Every player who matters is under control in 2016. This is not yet a solid team. It's a lucky team with significant flaws.

 

If Buxton and Sano thrive and turn into solid players, I'm all for banking a few prospects for a Tulo type player but right now, it seems really premature, especially when you have to give up one of Buxton, Sano, or Berrios to get Tulo in the first place.