Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[DaveW]

Sure in that they aren't Buxton or Sano. But would have been equivalent of Berrios and May, perhaps even slightly better. I'm not sure how Reyes is valued but can't be much.

 

Twins surely could have done it but would have clobbered their meager pitching depth.

Berrios and Gonslaves would have been the most comparable.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah Berrios is a good comp for Hoffman but May is an awful comp. Its far closer to Hu.

 

I dont get why they wanted Reyes. It seems like we could have easily beat that package.

[jimmer]

Toronto made a great trade getting the best shortstop in baseball and I think it works well for Colorado because they will flip Reyes at some point and get even more prospects.

[halfchest]

I think Reyes is negative value for Colorado.  They may get something for him but at his age and recent performance his contract is more than what he would get as a free agent.  If they eat some of the cost ten they may get a decent prospect or two. 

 

I would bet that Toronto insisted on including Reyes to balance things out financially in the deal.

 

 

Our comparable would have been to send Nolasco I suppose.  Mauer isn't realistic to be dealt due to his no trade so Nolasco would have been our best way to balance out money. 

[tobi0040]

MLB.com had Berrios 24th and Hoffman 69th.  Law didn't have Hoffman at all in the 100, Mayo had him around 80.

 

Since the pre-season, Hoffman has a 3.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 6.1 k per 9.  Granted he is coming off TJ, but those numbers aren't catapulting him anywhere IMO.  Berrios probably has upped his cause.  9+k per 9 with a 3.08 ERA in AA and promoted.  A 4.00 ERA in his first taste at AAA, looks like he is figuring out the league now.

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Our comparable would have been to send Nolasco I suppose. 

 

No.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I remember last week someone implied Jeff Bridich (Rockies GM) is incompetent (was it Jimmer, maybe?).

 

I thought the statement was hyperbolic at the time.

 

After seeing the details of this trade, I'm truly sorry for doubting that statement and I'm disappointed Ryan didn't take this grand opportunity to absolutely fleece the Rockies.

 

I can't believe that was the best option on the table. It reminds me of the time I was watching an auction of George Martin's piano (composer of many Beatles' songs) and it went for something like $45,000 because it appeared no one understood the value of what was on the block.

 

Once I picked my jaw off the floor, my only thought was "sonuvabitch, I wish I had $45,000 because somebody just got hosed".

 

If you can't get at least one top 30-40 prospect for Tulowitzki, you're not very good at your job.

[DaveW]

No doubt in my mind that Terry Ryan absolutely dropped the ball on this one. He had a chance to get an elite SS (something the Twins have never had) and not give up the farm to do it. Instead, its just business as usual at Twins way, why try to win world series when you can continue to just have a below average payroll and sort of compete every once in a while.

I thought the new stadium was supposed to make the Twins one of those teams that would "go for it" and compete with the big boys?

 

Sadly, I feel this will be the continued course until the Pohlads give up the team. Conservative, Conservative, Conservative.

 

[tobi0040]

I think Tulo's value was over-rated by most on these boards. Over-rated based on the 5-100 left on his deal and his injury track record.

 

We can make fun of the GM all we want.  But he probably heard from 10 teams and took the best deal he could find.  If Terry had offered Berrios or Gibson, plus all the names some threw out the Rockies would have done it.  One can assume like offers were not on the table.

[Doubles]

I'm okay with the Twins staying out of the Tulo sweepstakes.    I haven't read this entire thread, but I'm sure someone has already made these points.    Yes, Tulo's been productive, but keep in mind the Jays are getting Tulo from age 30-35, not 21-28 year old Tulo.    His offensive numbers are obviously gonna regress moving out of Coors Field, and durability is a concern.    There is also a high probability that his defense and range will certainly decline as he ages.  Here are also some numbers that would make me uneasy: 

 

375

512

203

606

529

 

Those are Tulo's AB's starting with 2014 and going backwards to 2010.   

 

Yeah, shiny new toys are cool, but if they don't work and you can't play with them very much it really takes all the fun out of it.    Especially when they come at the expense of possibly getting other toys that actually work when you want them to. 

[TheLeviathan]

His health risks were a huge factor for me, but I'd give up more than what the Blue Jays did in a heart-beat for him.  The risk was well worth the cost IMO.

 

The biggest mystery to me is why the Rockies seem to have wanted Reyes at all.

[whydidnt]

I think that some are seriously undervaluing Reyes at this point. Yes, he's got a poor contract, and is in the decline phase of his career. But he is still one of the better shortstops in the league and has value. He's not like Nolasco, who basically has produced negative value since signing. Guys like this still have value and his contract isn't an albatross - he's only got 2 more years at $22M guaranteed. (Sounds funny to say it that way) so he won't hamstring a team that is trying to win now long term. 

 

Yes, not an overwhelming return for Tulo, but I wonder if the Rockies have a 2nd deal on the burner to bring back something else for Reyes. Hard to compare until we see, but the Twins don't really have anyone similar to Reyes that they could/would have included. 

[USAFChief]

I'd rather see the Twins actually try to think big, and fail, than think small and succeed.

 

Thinking small is how you have Mauer and Johan in their prime but get nowhere because you're running Jason what's his name out at DH.

 

This was an opportunity missed. This kind of opportunity doesn't come around that often.

[DaveW]

The Blue Jays were actively looking for a buyer for Reyes for sometime, while I think he still has "value", 22 million is a vast overpay for him, even if it is just for 2 more years after this year. That is still 44 million a team can't spend elsewhere the next 2.5 seasons.

 

 

[jimmer]

 

I think that some are seriously undervaluing Reyes at this point. Yes, he's got a poor contract, and is in the decline phase of his career. But he is still one of the better shortstops in the league and has value. He's not like Nolasco, who basically has produced negative value since signing. Guys like this still have value and his contract isn't an albatross - he's only got 2 more years at $22M guaranteed. (Sounds funny to say it that way) so he won't hamstring a team that is trying to win now long term. 

 

Yes, not an overwhelming return for Tulo, but I wonder if the Rockies have a 2nd deal on the burner to bring back something else for Reyes. Hard to compare until we see, but the Twins don't really have anyone similar to Reyes that they could/would have included. 

that's 2 years at 22M each year guaranteed and then 4M buyout if the third year isn't exercised. That's 48M for 2 years AND whatever they will owe for this year, like 7M.  So around 55-56M for just under 2.5 years of a bad player.  They better flip him for some quality or it's really bad for them.

Edited July 28, 2015 by jimmer

[DaveW]

 

 

I'd rather see the Twins actually try to think big, and fail, than think small and succeed.

This was an opportunity missed. This kind of opportunity doesn't come around that often.

But that would involve taking the payroll into the top 50% of teams in the league, no? Pohlads clearly have no intention of doing so, and Ryan clearly has no intention of selling them on the idea of just trying this ONCE.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The biggest mystery to me is why the Rockies seem to have wanted Reyes at all.

Ditto. I think there's a good chance they are forced to either give Reyes away or sit on his contract until the offseason.

[Willihammer]

 

I remember last week someone implied Jeff Bridich (Rockies GM) is incompetent (was it Jimmer, maybe?).

 

I thought the statement was hyperbolic at the time.

 

After seeing the details of this trade, I'm truly sorry for doubting that statement and I'm disappointed Ryan didn't take this grand opportunity to absolutely fleece the Rockies.

 

I can't believe that was the best option on the table. It reminds me of the time I was watching an auction of George Martin's piano (composer of many Beatles' songs) and it went for something like $45,000 because it appeared no one understood the value of what was on the block.

 

Once I picked my jaw off the floor, my only thought was "sonuvabitch, I wish I had $45,000 because somebody just got hosed".

 

If you can't get at least one top 30-40 prospect for Tulowitzki, you're not very good at your job.

Don't you want to see what Reyes is flipped for first? Perhaps the Rockies get another top 100 prospect before the deadline.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Don't you want to see what Reyes is flipped for first? Perhaps the Rockies get another top 100 prospect before the deadline.

Reyes is owed way too much money. If they get a top 100 prospect, it'll be below 80 on the list. Nobody is going to pay much for Jose Reyes, not after the Jays got Tulo for what they did and set the market price for shortstops.

 

Can you imagine the laughter from the other side of the phone if Bridich asks a GM for a better player than Hoffman in trade for Reyes?

 

Bridich shot himself in the foot by selling Tulo so low. Even if a GM needs a SS, they're not going to give up a 30-40 range prospect after Tulo returned a guy in the 70s.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Ditto. I think there's a good chance they are forced to either give Reyes away or sit on his contract until the offseason.

 

I don't see how they get anything for him of significance.  It almost feels like they want to still pretend they are competing rather than reloading to build around Arenado.

 

That's the only thing I can think of.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't see how they get anything for him of significance.  It almost feels like they want to still pretend they are competing rather than reloading to build around Arenado.

 

That's the only thing I can think of.

If I was a Rockies fan, I'd be in a blind rage right now.

 

Talk about half-assing the entire situation. I think we look back at this deal in ten years and say "this is why the Rockies were terrible for the past decade".

[GCTF]

 

I'd rather see the Twins actually try to think big, and fail, than think small and succeed.

Thinking small is how you have Mauer and Johan in their prime but get nowhere because you're running Jason what's his name out at DH.

This was an opportunity missed. This kind of opportunity doesn't come around that often.

Tyner. Jason Tyner.

 

What?

[jimmer]

141 wRC+ in 2013

171 wRC+ in 2014

 

2015:

 

1st 43gms: 3.1bb%, 22.4k%, .136iso, 69wrc+ (after surgery)
2nd 43gms: 10.1bb%, 19.5k%, .207iso, 149wrc+ (as he gets further from surgery recovery)

[jimmer]

'When people argue against upgrading strengths, they’re really arguing for the presence of diminishing returns, but in baseball, the evidence actually supports the idea that adding a good hitter to an already good line-up actually returns a higher level of value, not a lower one.'-Dave Cameron, today's article on the Tulo trade

[Thrylos]

 

It should be noted that the Twins had the best pitcher in baseball, the ace of all ace's in Johan Santana and still failed to ever make a world series.

 

Including the year he got the Cy Young and Monreau the MVP and they were the favorite to win it all going into the post-season...

[drjim]

I'd rather see the Twins actually try to think big, and fail, than think small and succeed.

 

Thinking small is how you have Mauer and Johan in their prime but get nowhere because you're running Jason what's his name out at DH.

 

This was an opportunity missed. This kind of opportunity doesn't come around that often.

You'd rather the Twins fail than succeed? I don't buy this for a second.

 

They get Tulo, doesn't get them quite over the hump, hamstrings them from making other moves, then people complain that they don't do anything.

 

I ran this by a couple of my non-Twins fans but savvy baseball guys and they chuckled at the thought. Made no sense in their mind from any angle other than the purely emotional.

[USAFChief]

 

You'd rather the Twins fail than succeed? I don't buy this for a second.

They get Tulo, doesn't get them quite over the hump, hamstrings them from making other moves, then people complain that they don't do anything.

I ran this by a couple of my non-Twins fans but savvy baseball guys and they chuckled at the thought. Made no sense in their mind from any angle other than the purely emotional.

I think perhaps you misread my intent.  Probably due to my inarticulate communication skills.

 

Of course I want the Twins to win.

 

But they're not going to have much chance to actually do that by continuing to pretend this is the 1960's, that slow and steady wins the race, that the minor leagues have to supply all your talent, that taking on salary is somehow cheating, that making a mistake is a death knell to be avoided at all costs even if it means you also avoid the chance to get better.

 

This was a real opportunitiy.  The Twins didn't have the courage to pursue it, and it's just another example of small thinking.

 

I'd rather they pursue greatness and either get there or fail spectacularly, than pursue mediocrity and achieve it.

 

As for your savvy friends, I'm not real concerned with their opinions.  Following pro sports is supposed to be emotional, why else would anyone do it?

 

 

 

 

[drjim]

I think perhaps you misread my intent. Probably due to my inarticulate communication skills.

 

Of course I want the Twins to win.

 

But they're not going to have much chance to actually do that by continuing to pretend this is the 1960's, that slow and steady wins the race, that the minor leagues have to supply all your talent, that taking on salary is somehow cheating, that making a mistake is a death knell to be avoided at all costs even if it means you also avoid the chance to get better.

 

This was a real opportunitiy. The Twins didn't have the courage to pursue it, and it's just another example of small thinking.

 

I'd rather they pursue greatness and either get there or fail spectacularly, than pursue mediocrity and achieve it.

 

As for your savvy friends, I'm not real concerned with their opinions. Following pro sports is supposed to be emotional, why else would anyone do it?

Interesting perspective. I don't agree but an interesting way to view it.

 

I personally kind of like methodical rebuilds that result in sustained success and then strike when the moment is right.

 

Prefer it much over say the Padres model, which is the likely result of chasing after moves like this.

[jimmer]

 

Interesting perspective. I don't agree but an interesting way to view it.

I personally kind of like methodical rebuilds that result in sustained success and then strike when the moment is right.

Prefer it much over say the Padres model, which is the likely result of chasing after moves like this.

except Ryan has never done the 'striking when the moment was right' move and it took eight years last time to build a team that had sustained success.  And it's convenient that it's never the right time to strike until Ryan does it.  Then, and only then, will some say THAT was the exact time to strike.  If Ryan doesn't strike, those same people will say it wasn't time to strike.

[USAFChief]

Interesting perspective. I don't agree but an interesting way to view it.

I personally kind of like methodical rebuilds that result in sustained success and then strike when the moment is right.

Prefer it much over say the Padres model, which is the likely result of chasing after moves like this.

Fair enough. Although as Jimmer pointed out, I'll need to see TR actually strike before I'll believe the time will ever be right. Not to mention, assets might not be available if they ever do decide it's time, and/or they might not have the assets to trade.

 

They can't outspend for big league talent, they refuse to outspend for international talent or in the draft. They won't trade for established big league talent. Rebuilds on that model have a way of seldom if ever getting to the promised land.

 

Hell, they've got a team right now that is on the WC chase and Blaine Boyer is still in the bullpen. Jason Tyner, DH if you want an example from their "sustained success.". Call me emotional, but that doesn't give me much confidence the Twins under TR are going to be aggressive when you think they will be.