Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[jimmer]

Cubs have a quality 2B in their minor league system and the Cubs have a quality SS ready to take over for Castro

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the Yankees would have to offer both Severino and Judge to match Berrios and Kepler. Severino is a stud and I'd probably take him over Berrios but Judge... Eh, I'd go with the huge upside of Kepler over Judge. I've always been slightly skeptical of Kepler but his contact ability, discipline, and potential as a centerfielder won me over. Judge has to rake to be a good player but Kepler has an outside shot at being a fringy centerfielder in the majors.

 

Also, Kepler is nearly a full year younger.

Severino is ranked ahead of Berrios by BA and Sickels.  Judge is ahead of him by BA too, and #30 on Sickels midseason top 75.  Kepler did not make Sickels' midseason top 75 (although Meyer is still clinging on at #75, for what it's worth ).

 

Obviously the Yankees have other prospects too, but the point is, they have a desperate need and some top guys if they wanted to get into the fray.

 

Maybe that Twins offer is the best the Rockies could get if they set a deadline for next week (although that move might signal other teams to get aggressive too), but they are clearly not rushing this thing.  There's nothing special about that Twins offer that would force them to act fast (i.e. Beane offering Russell for Samardzija early last July).

[jimmer]

I'd take Berrios over Severino 10 out of 10 times.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Severino is ranked ahead of Berrios by BA and Sickels.  Judge is ahead of him by BA too, and #30 on Sickels midseason top 75.  Kepler did not make Sickels' midseason top 75 (although Meyer is still clinging on at #75, for what it's worth ).

Prospect lists haven't caught up with Kepler yet. MLB GMs will not suffer the same problem. Kepler is showing the massive upside the Twins thought he had when they signed him out of Germany.

 

But you're right, if the Yankees get into the mix, they could easily drive up the price with a bevy of good prospects. If I was Ryan, I'd bow out the moment a bidding war started. The risk in Tulo is too great to overpay for him and there's too much to lose if you're wrong.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cubs have a quality 2B in their minor league system and the Cubs have a quality SS ready to take over for Castro

Baez and Russell?  I am sure the Cubs have a plan.  But my point is, in addition to teams with obvious needs like the Mets, Yankees, and Pirates, there are other teams that could have a need soon, or could find a way to enter a Tulo sweepstakes if it began in earnest.

 

Right now, I half-suspect that the Rockies owner just likes having an excuse to talk and hang out with Tulowitzki.

[jimmer]

 

Baez and Russell?  I am sure the Cubs have a plan.  But my point is, in addition to teams with obvious needs like the Mets, Yankees, and Pirates, there are other teams that could have a need soon, or could find a way to enter a Tulo sweepstakes if it began in earnest.

 

Right now, I half-suspect that the Rockies owner just likes having an excuse to talk and hang out with Tulowitzki.

I meant the Rockies have a quality 2B (Story) in their system (if DJ doesn't work out).And the CUbs have Russell.

Edited July 23, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

Prospect lists haven't caught up with Kepler yet. MLB GMs will not suffer the same problem. Kepler is showing the massive upside the Twins thought he had when they signed him out of Germany.

 

But you're right, if the Yankees get into the mix, they could easily drive up the price with a bevy of good prospects. If I was Ryan, I'd bow out the moment a bidding war started. The risk in Tulo is too great to overpay for him and there's too much to lose if you're wrong.

Sporting News last month had Berrios over Severino and Judge wasn't near them. Kiley at Fangraphs had Berrios over Severino to start the year (haven't seen the update yet) with Judge far away from them.

 

I agree.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sporting News last month had Berrios over Severino and Judge wasn't near them. Kiley at Fangraphs had Berrios over Severino to start the year (haven't seen the update yet) with Judge far away from them.

 

I agree.

I know the stats are readily available but Kepler's line at AA is worth posting:

 

.331 .412 .521 .933

 

294 PAs

35 BB

37 SO (!)

 

As a 22 year old in AA with fringy up-the-middle skills, that approaches "elite prospect" territory. The only major ding on him as a player is that he didn't have a very good season in 2014.

[jimmer]

 

I know the stats are readily available but Kepler's line at AA is worth posting:

 

.331 .412 .521 .933

 

294 PAs

35 BB

37 SO (!)

 

As a 22 year old in AA with fringy up-the-middle skills, that approaches "elite prospect" territory. The only major ding on him as a player is that he didn't have a very good season in 2014.

 

I know the stats are readily available but Kepler's line at AA is worth posting:

 

.331 .412 .521 .933

 

294 PAs

35 BB

37 SO (!)

 

As a 22 year old in AA with fringy up-the-middle skills, that approaches "elite prospect" territory. The only major ding on him as a player is that he didn't have a very good season in 2014.

Don't have to sell me on Kepler.  I'm buying.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I meant the Rockies have a quality 2B in their system (if DJ doesn't work out).And the CUbs have Russell.

Okay, makes more sense.  I don't know much about the Rockies system.

 

On the Cubs, if Baez doesn't pan out and they want to cut bait with Castro, they might be willing to make a splash for a SS and leave Russell at 2B.  Heck, maybe they could send Castro to the Rockies with a couple elite prospects (dang, they've had a bunch of elite prospects!).  I wouldn't want to touch Castro with a ten foot pole, but that's just an example of the kind of creative offers that would probably pop up if the Rockies were serious about moving Tulo and wanted to get elite prospect(s) in return.

[jimmer]

 

Okay, makes more sense.  I don't know much about the Rockies system.

 

 

Trevor Story, 22 years old, in AAA. .898 OPS.

 

Baez is trade bait.  He has no future on that team.  Too much young IF talent there.

Edited July 23, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I know the stats are readily available but Kepler's line at AA is worth posting:

 

.331 .412 .521 .933

 

294 PAs

35 BB

37 SO (!)

 

As a 22 year old in AA with fringy up-the-middle skills, that approaches "elite prospect" territory. The only major ding on him as a player is that he didn't have a very good season in 2014.

You'd think Sickels would be aware of Kepler for his midseason list:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/6/18/8804727/twins-prospect-max-kepler-breaks-out-in-double-a

 

I like him too, but all things considered, I don't think he's going to be viewed as elite yet.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You'd think Sickels would be aware of Kepler for his midseason list:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/6/18/8804727/twins-prospect-max-kepler-breaks-out-in-double-a

 

I like him too, but all things considered, I don't think he's going to be viewed as elite yet.

Not elite yet, no. His 2014 is dragging him down. He'll need to finish 2015 strong and do the same in 2016.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Baez is trade bait.  He has no future on that team.  Too much young IF talent there.

Baez + Castro + Schwarber for Tulowitzki?  Now I'm just having fun.  No pitchers there, though...

 

The Jays have done some aggressive stuff, and they have some elite young arms.  Would they package some with Jose Reyes for Tulo?  Again, just brainstorming.  If I'm the Rockies, and I am ready to deal, I start by calling the Mets and Yankees, of course.

 

The Rockies haven't impressed me with their personnel moves recently, so who knows what they would consider the best package.  Do they even know where they are at on the rebuild cycle?

[jimmer]

 

Baez + Castro + Schwarber for Tulowitzki?  Now I'm just having fun.  No pitchers there, though...

 

The Jays have done some aggressive stuff, and they have some elite young arms.  Would they package some with Jose Reyes for Tulo?  Again, just brainstorming.  If I'm the Rockies, and I am ready to deal, I start by calling the Mets and Yankees, of course.

 

The Rockies haven't impressed me with their personnel moves recently, so who knows what they would consider the best package.  Do they even know where they are at on the rebuild cycle?

Rockies leadership is clueless.  After the stunt they pulled with their W Series tickets, they showed they also don;t care much about their fans.  That may extend to keeping Tulo just to make money.

[nicksaviking]

 

You'd think Sickels would be aware of Kepler for his midseason list:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/6/18/8804727/twins-prospect-max-kepler-breaks-out-in-double-a

 

I like him too, but all things considered, I don't think he's going to be viewed as elite yet.

 

He looks like a pretty solid player at this time, but even if they don't beleive in what they're saying, opposing GM's will still degrade his value due to his profile as a corner bat with little HR power.

 

Kepler is a really weird profile though, his slugging is really helped by his strong triple numbers, which looks legit as he has had success with three baggers in the past.  However he isn't exactly a speedster either, this is the first year he's stolen double digit bases. 

 

What are we looking at here?  I wanted to say Christian Yelich upside but Yelich has more speed but worse strikeout numbers. You can't rightly say Wade Boggs without looking like an idiot.  This repertoir just doesn't seem common in today's game.

[Homer Hanky]

Has anyone talked about the idea of trading E. Santana for another stud picture that can actually pitch in the post season... 

 

I hate thinking about E. Santana kicking but the rest of the year and then not being able to pitch in the post season. 

 

If we traded E. Santana who would we want in return that has a similar contract or even more friendly... 

 

Someone on the Rays... ? 

[GMinTraining]

 

He looks like a pretty solid player at this time, but even if they don't beleive in what they're saying, opposing GM's will still degrade his value due to his profile as a corner bat with little HR power.

 

Kepler is a really weird profile though, his slugging is really helped by his strong triple numbers, which looks legit as he has had success with three baggers in the past.  However he isn't exactly a speedster either, this is the first year he's stolen double digit bases. 

 

What are we looking at here?  I wanted to say Christian Yelich upside but Yelich has more speed but worse strikeout numbers. You can't rightly say Wade Boggs without looking like an idiot.  This repertoir just doesn't seem common in today's game.

 

Kepler has always shown signs of an elite prospect and is putting it together this season.  I wonder how much the Arizona Fall League helped since he didn't have a great 2014.   Rosario actually took off too after AZ Fall League.  Maybe it is just what the doctor ordered for hitters.  That said - Kepler and Rosario are very similar in overall upside and skill set.

Edited July 24, 2015 by GMinTraining

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'm assuming you all heard/read about the Rockies GM admitting on MLB radio that they're listening to offers for Tulo.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Brock--Glad to see you changing gears on this, as you had been consistently opposed. I continue to think this is a perfect storm for the Twins to land Tulo...position of glaring need, payroll flexibility, deep farm system, prospects now starting to contribute, and a quicker-than-expected chance at the playoffs.

 

What if TR put the following 5 players on his "untouchable" list: Dozier, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, and Gibson? Is there still a deal that would work?

 

Would Gonsalves, Gordon, Arcia/Kepler, F. Jorge, and Duensing be enough to make it happen?

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm assuming you all heard/read about the Rockies GM admitting on MLB radio that they're listening to offers for Tulo.

No, but that's a good sign.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He looks like a pretty solid player at this time, but even if they don't beleive in what they're saying, opposing GM's will still degrade his value due to his profile as a corner bat with little HR power.

 

Kepler is a really weird profile though, his slugging is really helped by his strong triple numbers, which looks legit as he has had success with three baggers in the past.  However he isn't exactly a speedster either, this is the first year he's stolen double digit bases. 

 

What are we looking at here?  I wanted to say Christian Yelich upside but Yelich has more speed but worse strikeout numbers. You can't rightly say Wade Boggs without looking like an idiot.  This repertoir just doesn't seem common in today's game.

He's an interesting and unusual prospect, that's for sure. He's probably a corner outfielder but he'll be a very good corner outfielder, at least defensively.

 

To me, the biggest sticking point with Kepler is going to be whether he's a .300+ hitter or a .270 hitter. This season, he's overperforming BABIP but given how new he is to the game of baseball, I have no idea if this is luck or progression as a player. He won't maintain his current .376 BABIP but given his discipline and contact tool, it's possible this is a legit turning of the corner for him.

 

If he's a .300/.380/.400 hitter, you don't care much about the middling power (I don't think he'll be a bad power hitter).

 

To draw a comparison, are we looking at Joe Mauer-lite with good corner outfield defense? Obviously, that's not a 5-7 WAR player like Joe but he could slot in as a 3-4 WAR player if the tools we're seeing this season are for real.

 

2016 will be very telling about Max.

[Vanimal46]

Has anyone talked about the idea of trading E. Santana for another stud picture that can actually pitch in the post season...

 

I hate thinking about E. Santana kicking but the rest of the year and then not being able to pitch in the post season.

 

If we traded E. Santana who would we want in return that has a similar contract or even more friendly...

 

Someone on the Rays... ?

I doubt that anyone would be asking about E. Santana in any trade negotiation. He's certainly pitched well so far, but I would file him under "untradeable contracts"

 

Especially when there are others of higher caliber supposedly available for trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I doubt that anyone would be asking about E. Santana in any trade negotiation. He's certainly pitched well so far, but I would file him under "untradeable contracts"

Especially when there are others of higher caliber supposedly available for trade.

Nobody wants 3 1/2 years of Ervin Santana at the trade deadline. It's that simple, really.

 

That doesn't mean it's a bad contract, he's not worth the money, or anything of the sort... But nobody picks up that contract at the deadline.

[jimmer]

 

Nobody wants 3 1/2 years of Ervin Santana at the trade deadline. It's that simple, really.

 

That doesn't mean it's a bad contract, he's not worth the money, or anything of the sort... But nobody picks up that contract at the deadline.

Does it matter that prior to 2015, Santana was worth 18M or more in three of the previous four seasons? Most probably don't think it does and maybe it doesn't.

 

Point really is this: There is a reason no one else signed him. No one was desperate enough to overpay him. That hasn't changed after getting nabbed with a PED suspension and him not being able to pitch in the post season. Certainly no contending time would trade for him during this season.

[halfchest]

 

Does it matter that prior to 2015, Santana was worth 18M or more in three of the previous four seasons? Most probably don't think it does and maybe it doesn't.

 

Point really is this: There is a reason no one else signed him. No one was desperate enough to overpay him. That hasn't changed after getting nabbed with a PED suspension and him not being able to pitch in the post season. Certainly no contending time would trade for him during this season.

 

I think it was described perfectly as it's not a bad contract necessarily, but it's not one teams are likely to go after either.  Santana is the kinda guy a team might pursue if he had say 1 1/2 years left on his contract rather than 3 1/2 due in part to the commitment and his age being to a point where a decline is likely for the second half of the contract.

 

That's what really makes his suspension a bummer.  To me when the Twins signed him I liked it and thought the first 2-3 years should be valuable with the last 1-2 maybe being suspect or overpaying him.   To lose out on half of the first year as well as him not being available for the playoffs this year really hurts. 

 

 

[tobi0040]

 

Does it matter that prior to 2015, Santana was worth 18M or more in three of the previous four seasons? Most probably don't think it does and maybe it doesn't.

 

Point really is this: There is a reason no one else signed him. No one was desperate enough to overpay him. That hasn't changed after getting nabbed with a PED suspension and him not being able to pitch in the post season. Certainly no contending time would trade for him during this season.

 

I think the last few years going multiple years for him was an issue, given the elbow issue he has had in the past.  Teams went year to year at $14M, he turned down 3-33 at one point.  And his agent also over-played his hand two years ago asking for 5-90 or something crazy.

 

Now, he is absolutely un-tradable.  The PED’s may have explained why he never needed TJ and some may not know if his past stats are really accurate.

[Mike Sixel]

Meh, they aren't dealing Ervin Santana, and no one wants the other Santana. Not even sure why this is being discussed. It is more likely they trade for Tulo.......

[jimmer]

 

Meh, they aren't dealing Ervin Santana, and no one wants the other Santana. Not even sure why this is being discussed. It is more likely they trade for Tulo.......

doesn't 0% equal chance equal 0% chance? :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think basically any multiyear FA contract is untradeable in its first season.  It was probably the largest bid at the time, and other teams have since made other plans.

 

Even after one full season, it can be a little tricky to unload a multiyear deal (the fire-sale Marlins have done it a few times).

 

It's extra difficult with Ervin Santana due to the suspension, and the fact that there are much better (albeit more expensive) pitchers available now and this winter.