Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[jimmer]

 

didn't you say that about the ASB or so also?

 

so, 6 more weeks of their 2nd best pitcher sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing? But, ya, they are w/o a flaw in leadership/FO/manager....

To be fair, Brock isn't one of the posters that blanket defends the leadership.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To be fair, Brock isn't one of the posters that blanket defends the leadership.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that, but thanks, you are correct on that.

 

And I don't think Brock agrees with the May decision any more than I do.

[Brock Beauchamp]

didn't you say that about the ASB or so also?

 

so, 6 more weeks of their 2nd best pitcher sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing? But, ya, they are w/o a flaw in leadership/FO/manager....

There are a few flaws in this argument.

 

1. I never said May would be in the rotation at the ASB.

 

2. I've gone on the record saying I wouldn't have taken him out of the rotation. I merely said May in the pen might not be a disaster if he's used in high leverage situations.

 

3. Who said the Twins FO isn't capable of mistakes? I've been hammering them over the pen and SS for months now.

[jimmer]

 

I wasn't trying to imply that, but thanks, you are correct on that.

 

And I don't think Brock agrees with the May decision any more than I do.

Sorry I misinterpreted your post.  Over the last couple days there seems to be a rise in personal shots being taken (and Brock has been someone's personal pin cushion which isn't cool). I guess it just read weird to me.  My bad.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Big picture: the Rockies have a pretty tremendous talent asset in Tulo, and they are probably insisting on some combination of demonstrated MLB talent (Gibson) and elite potential talent (Sano, maybe Berrios) to force a move right now.

 

I get the argument that that's too much for the Twins to give up, but I think giving up only half of that (demonstrated talent in Gibson) + other non-elite stuff is absolutely in the Twins favor, and would absolutely be rejected by the Rockies.  There's just no reason they'd have to do that deal today -- they could probably get a similar haul this winter, or anytime over the next couple seasons if they so desire.  Probably more if Tulo stays on the field awhile, or has a performance spike like 2014 again.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are a few flaws in this argument.

1. I never said May would be in the rotation at the ASB.

2. I've gone on the record saying I wouldn't have taken him out of the rotation. I merely said May in the pen might not be a disaster if he's used in high leverage situations.

3. Who said the Twins FO isn't capable of mistakes? I've been hammering them over the pen and SS for months now.

 

Those last two were not aimed at you, my bad communication there......but there a lot of posts on this site that are appeals to authority, that we shouldn't question the experts. You've seen them. They are really prevalent when the team is winning.....

 

I thought you did say that about May, my bad.

 

I don't get what they are doing with May at all, not even 1 bit.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't get what they are doing with May at all, not even 1 bit.

Nor do I. On that we agree. The only rational explanation I can devise is that Trevor is in a dead arm phase and they're not telling anyone. Every other rationalization is bizarre.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Nor do I. On that we agree. The only rational explanation I can devise is that Trevor is in a dead arm phase and they're not telling anyone. Every other rationalization is bizarre.

 

Agreed, that is my thought also....

[nicksaviking]

 

Preposterous statement of the year nomination.

Tulo is a hall of fame SS, Gibson is a guy who is probably a #3 starter on a good team and a poor mans Brad Radke at best.

 

Tulo was a Hall of Fame player.  Rarely do even Hall of Famers put up numbers in their 30's that would be worthy of consideration, they build their resume based on the work in their 20's and coast in should they be fortunate enough to remain healthy and productive to play into their mid-to-late 30's.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tulo was a Hall of Fame player.  Rarely do even Hall of Famers put up numbers in their 30's that would be worthy of consideration, they build their resume based on the work in their 20's and coast in should they be fortunate enough to remain healthy and productive to play into their mid-to-late 30's.

If Tulo was 33 and/or struggling, I might be with you here.

 

Fortunately Tulo is only 30, and he's still raking.  Now, I would be very open to a scout or a detailed analysis that showed Tulo specifically was likely to fall off quickly within the next 3-4 years, but I don't think you can let generalized arguments derail such acquisitions, or you'd never sign a major free agent, never trade for a veteran, etc.

[jimmer]

 

If Tulo was 33 and/or struggling, I might be with you here.

 

Fortunately Tulo is only 30, and he's still raking.  Now, I would be very open to a scout or a detailed analysis that showed Tulo specifically was likely to fall off quickly within the next 3-4 years, but I don't think you can let generalized arguments derail such acquisitions, or you'd never sign a major free agent, never trade for a veteran, etc.

Another thing that hasn't really been mentioned is Tulo's reputation for being a leader.  In his rookie year, even the veterans were talking about him being THE leader of the team.  He has the talent and all the intangibles so many believe are imperative.  He's the whole package.  

[USAFChief]

Just wanted to say I appreciate the spirited but respectful debate in this thread. Great work on the thread starter! AndLots of good posts on all sides of the equation. TD is a great place, even when we're debating something we'd all privately admit has virtually no chance of happening.

 

My two cents.

[WyoTwin]

Just a few points.

Is Gibson a number one pitcher? I don't think so. I think he is a low two or a high three. Seems during the off season people post that we have a rotation full of 3 and 4. Here we have maybe a top three ss in the league. When healthy possibly a MVP candidate. I know he has not been healthy, but would you want a healthy Tulowitzki for around 140 games and someone else filling the other days? I would!

 

About the splits, according to baseball-fever.com

[SwainZag]

 

Just a few points.
Is Gibson a number one pitcher? I don't think so. I think he is a low two or a high three. Seems during the off season people post that we have a rotation full of 3 and 4. Here we have maybe a top three ss in the league. When healthy possibly a MVP candidate. I know he has not been healthy, but would you want a healthy Tulowitzki for around 140 games and someone else filling the other days? I would!

About the splits, according to baseball-fever.com

 

And he has played 140+ games in his 8 year (not counting his rookie season or this year) just 3 times.  He has also played less than 105 games in a season 3 times in his career.  If he you could guarantee his health and averaging 140 games for the rest of his contract it would be a much different situation.

[Badsmerf]

Why is everyone continuing to talk about Gibson for Tulo? This trade makes no sense for either team. This trade makes no sense for either team. This trade makes no sense for either team. Why is this such a difficult concept?

 

If the Twins were in this situation, Twins fans would want Berrios and Polanco. Shoot, the Twins traded Santana for less than that.

[WyoTwin]

WyoTwin

Today, 06:37 PM

 

Just a few points.

Is Gibson a number one pitcher? I don't think so. I think he is a low two or a high three. Seems during the off season people post that we have a rotation full of 3 and 4. Here we have maybe a top three ss in the league. When healthy possibly a MVP candidate. I know he has not been healthy, but would you want a healthy Tulowitzki for around 140 games and someone else filling the other days? I would!

 

About the splits, according to baseball-fever.com

Batting avg splits

Ted Williams-Home .361 away 328

Jimmie Fox- H .345 A .307

Honus Wagner-H .335 A .320

Carl Yastrzemski -H .306 A .264

 

Slugging %

Roger Hornsby's in 1925 H-.902 A-.618

 

Who on this page wouldn't trade Kyle Gibson for any one of these players?

 

I've been thinking about a few players that have traded later in there career.

Mark Maguire

Frank Robinson (same age as Tulowitzki now)

David Cone

Nolan Ryan

Mike Lowell

Mike Piazza

Tom Seaver

Dennis Eckersley

Gaylord Perry

Bert Blyleven

 

Who wouldn't of wanted any of them?

 

I would trade Colorado

ABll, Gibson, Stewart, and Reed

For

Tulowitzki and Hundley

I believe Colorado is going to go into a rebuild mode. They may end up trading Tulowitzki, Cargo, and Blackman.

[tobi0040]

 

Another thing that hasn't really been mentioned is Tulo's reputation for being a leader.  In his rookie year, even the veterans were talking about him being THE leader of the team.  He has the talent and all the intangibles so many believe are imperative.  He's the whole package.  

 

We don't have that need. Rumor is we are working on a 5 year extension for Hunter.

[DaveW]

 

Just wanted to say I appreciate the spirited but respectful debate in this thread.

 

Isn't it past your nap time?

[DaveW]

 

 

Shoot, the Twins traded Santana for less than that.

Not even close to true.

[laloesch]

 

Not even close to true.

 

Please elaborate.

[DaveW]

 

Please elaborate.

The Twins got Gomez (top 50 rated prospect), Guerra (#35 rated prospect), Humber (#26 rated prospect) and  Mulvey (not a highly rated prospect, but still a solid one at that) in return for Santana.

 

Berrios+Polanco don't come anywhere close to that in current value.

Edited July 22, 2015 by DaveW

[adorduan]

 

WyoTwin
Today, 06:37 PM

Just a few points.
Is Gibson a number one pitcher? I don't think so. I think he is a low two or a high three. Seems during the off season people post that we have a rotation full of 3 and 4. Here we have maybe a top three ss in the league. When healthy possibly a MVP candidate. I know he has not been healthy, but would you want a healthy Tulowitzki for around 140 games and someone else filling the other days? I would!

About the splits, according to baseball-fever.com
Batting avg splits
Ted Williams-Home .361 away 328
Jimmie Fox- H .345 A .307
Honus Wagner-H .335 A .320
Carl Yastrzemski -H .306 A .264

Slugging %
Roger Hornsby's in 1925 H-.902 A-.618

Who on this page wouldn't trade Kyle Gibson for any one of these players?

I've been thinking about a few players that have traded later in there career.
Mark Maguire
Frank Robinson (same age as Tulowitzki now)
David Cone
Nolan Ryan
Mike Lowell
Mike Piazza
Tom Seaver
Dennis Eckersley
Gaylord Perry
Bert Blyleven

Who wouldn't of wanted any of them?

I would trade Colorado
ABll, Gibson, Stewart, and Reed
For
Tulowitzki and Hundley
I believe Colorado is going to go into a rebuild mode. They may end up trading Tulowitzki, Cargo, and Blackman.

The Rockies wouldn't even dignify that offer with an answer.

[laloesch]

 

The Twins got Gomez (top 50 rated prospect), Guerra (#35 rated prospect), Humber (#26 rated prospect) and  Mulvey (not a highly rated prospect, but still a solid one at that) in return for Santana.

 

Berrios+Polanco don't come anywhere close to that in current value.

 

I see your point.  My own opinion is that Sano, Buxton and Berrios are currently the crown jewels of the Twins farm system.  Berrios would level the field a bit. 

 

Remember too that other than Gomez and Guerra the rest of the stuff the Mets threw our way for Santana were NEVER highly touted prospects.  And as history has shown Only Gomez has had a meaningful positive impact of all four guys traded to Minnesota for Santana.  

 

Guerra has toiled away in the minors for YEARS (10 years and he's now 26), likely nothing more than a late innings reliever.  Remember he was a key cog of that deal and was touted as the next Santana with his monster change.   

 

Humber fizzled out of the Twins organization before making a brief splash with the White Sox.  He's still trying to make a go of it with the Astros this season and it's been disastrous to say the least.  He was pitched as a mid rotation guy.  

 

Mulvey has been done with baseball since 2010.  So really this was a horrible horrible trade for the Twins on all fronts.  Sure Gomez has blossomed with the Brewers but he was RAW during his time here and Gardy couldn't handle that.  

[jimmer]

Just last year, the two shortstops with the most WAR were Peralta and Tulo.  They each had 5.3 WAR. Took Tulo 91 games to get that.  Took Peralta 157 :-)

 

And I nominate the following for the 'WTF stat of the day': the Twins had the highest WAR from the shortstop position last year. (Rockies sub shortstops, absolutely pathetic last year)

Edited July 22, 2015 by jimmer

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Nothing I said suggests the deal is close. Just that they had talked. They haven't talked in a couple of days, to my knowledge. My honest belief is that the GMs could (not "will") arrive on parameters and still face the biggest hurdle in getting it done - ownership.

 

Even if it doesn't happen before the deadline, which admittedly is a small shot, I would imagine talks will resume in December, when both teams have a clearer picture of who they are.

[Brock Beauchamp]

BTW, I highly recommend John and Aaron's podcast today. Both are kinda in line with my thinking, though I'd give up Rosario (unlike John) but would keep Gibson (unlike Aaron). Not because I love Gibson so much but because the Twins' chances in 2015 bottom out without Kyle in the rotation.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19298-article-gleeman-the-geek-episode-205-troy-tulowitzki-mayor-of-speculation-city/

[Mike Sixel]

Used to listen to Aaron, but since he decided to ridicule me for participating on his site, after asking for more participation, and for suggesting they do a live podcast, which they did a few weeks later, well, I'd prefer not to give him my time.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

Though an interesting idea is to really roll the dice on the season.

 

Trade Gibson, Polanco, and Kepler or Walker (obviously, Walker is preferred) for Tulowitzki. Do the Rockies listen?

 

Put May back into the rotation and here's where it gets interesting. Move Pelfrey to the bullpen or move him for a middling bullpen arm (that should be a reasonable task).

 

The riskiest part of this deal? Jose Berrios is promoted and inserted into the rotation. The Twins could collapse but the upside is there to be really good.

 

Very risky but that's the type of deal I could get behind. Most of the key components stay in place (minus Gibson) and you roll the dice on Berrios.

[tobi0040]

 

The Twins got Gomez (top 50 rated prospect), Guerra (#35 rated prospect), Humber (#26 rated prospect) and  Mulvey (not a highly rated prospect, but still a solid one at that) in return for Santana.

 

Berrios+Polanco don't come anywhere close to that in current value.

 

Huh?  This is a really bad case of cherry picking.

 

Gomez was about right, although pre-2008 he was #52 by BA and #65 by BP.  He was in the majors and no longer a prospect.  His OPS plus was 55 in his 58 games up to the time of the trade

 

At the time of the trade (pre-2009), Guerra was not rated. Pre-2008 he was #35 by BA and #79 by BP.  He then went out and put up a 5.41 ERA at high A that year and fell off all lists.

 

Humber was last rated before the 2007 season, 26 by BP and 73 by BA.  He was a nothing-burger when we traded for him.

 

So you basically had Gomez plus three un-rated players.  Berrios is top 30 on some lists and Polanco is a borderline top 100.

 

Edited July 23, 2015 by tobi0040

[DaveW]

Though an interesting idea is to really roll the dice on the season.

 

Trade Gibson, Polanco, and Kepler or Walker (obviously, Walker is preferred) for Tulowitzki. Do the Rockies listen?

 

Put May back into the rotation and here's where it gets interesting. Move Pelfrey to the bullpen or move him for a middling bullpen arm (that should be a reasonable task).

 

The riskiest part of this deal? Jose Berrios is promoted and inserted into the rotation. The Twins could collapse but the upside is there to be really good.

 

Very risky but that's the type of deal I could get behind. Most of the key components stay in place (minus Gibson) and you roll the dice on Berrios.

Told you