Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[kab21]

I started doing some research a few years ago with the Coors effect and how using splits is misleading.  The first thing you need to consider is the benefit that Coors gives.  The perception is that the benefit is totally due to the ball going further and the field being bigger. 

 

That is only part of the story.  Before the batter even hits the ball he is at an enormous advantage for two reasons.  Opposing pitchers tire more quickly at elevation and opposing pitchers all of a sudden don't have the same movement on their pitches making it much easier for home hitters to hit the ball. Opposing hitters enjoy some of this benefit but not nearly to the same extent (backed up by K and BB rate comparisons of home/opposing hitters home/away stats). 

 

So part of my theory (and what my initial stat analysis showed) is that part of the reason Rockies hitters struggle on the road (the big splits) is that all of a sudden the ball is breaking a lot more than usual and they aren't able to adjust in the course of 1-2 road series.  When given a longer period to adjust (like being traded/FA) their non Coors stats improved.

 

Brock posted some stats a few pages ago that are misleading about Holliday.  His Busch numbers are extraordinary when compared to his Coors numbers.  Of course his BA is down at Busch.  A) park effect BA league wide is down 15 pts from his Rockies days C) Holliday is in his 30's for most of his career at Busch

 

The only questions regarding a Tulo trade is how much has to be given up and if he can be healthy.  The health part of the equation is the only reason that the Twins can even consider a deal w/o buxton/Sano in it or even consider it all.  The money really doesn't matter.  Mauer/Santana/Nolasco are all FA's by the time Buxton/Sano (and most young players) are in arb.  In the next few years the Twins don't have any big contracts or extensions to commit to since arguably almost every position except catcher, SS and front line starter are filled mostly with young and cheap players.  FA is a horrible place to spend money and the Twins aren't going to be going after a 150-200M starter regardless if Tulo is here.  Saving money on seasonal payroll is only useful if you have somewhere good to spend it later.

 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

 

That is only part of the story. Before the batter even hits the ball he is at an enormous advantage for two reasons. Opposing pitchers tire more quickly at elevation and opposing pitchers all

 

So part of my theory (and what my initial stat analysis showed) is that part of the reason Rockies hitters struggle on the road (the big splits) is that all of a sudden the ball is breaking a lot more than usual and they aren't able to adjust in the course of 1-2 road series. When given a longer period to adjust (like being traded/FA) their non Coors stats improved.

 

Brock posted some stats a few pages ago that are misleading about Holliday. His Busch numbers are extraordinary when compared to his Coors numbers. Of course his BA is down at Busch. A) park effect BA league wide is down 15 pts from his Rockies days C) Holliday is in his 30's for most of his career at Busch

 

The only questions regarding a Tulo trade is how much has to be given up and if he can be healthy. The health part of the equation is the only reason that the Twins can even consider a deal w/o buxton/Sano in it or even consider it all. The money really doesn't matter. Mauer/Santana/Nolasco are all FA's by the time Buxton/Sano (and most young players) are in arb. In the next few years the Twins don't have any big contracts or extensions to commit to since arguably almost every position except catcher, SS and front line starter are filled mostly with young and cheap players. FA is a horrible place to spend money and the Twins aren't going to be going after a 150-200M starter regardless if Tulo is here. Saving money on seasonal payroll is only useful if you have somewhere good to spend it later.

Oh snap! Brock given a Stone TOLD Stunner re: his Holliday example

[jtkoupal]

I love the idea of going after Tulo. A healthy Tulo is probably the best shortstop in baseball, and perhaps one of the top 3 or 4 players in all of baseball. However, I am not interested at all in parting with Gibson and/or Sano. Gibson is far too important to part with right now and Sano is too great a part of the future to get rid of. 

 

It should be worth noting that third base is currently occupied in Colorado, as Nolan Arenado has that spot locked down for years to come, and Colorado has no DH, as they are an NL team. They have a number of first base prospects and I guarantee you they don't put Sano in that cavernous outfield they have at Coors Field. Sano isn't a fit in Colorado. 

 

If Gibson is mentioned in the offseason, that may be a different story. But you can't deal away your ace in a playoff race. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sigh. Yeah, I got "told".

 

*rolls eyes*

 

Care to revisit your completely baseless, statistically inaccurate, and anecdotal Escobar argument from a few pages ago, Dave?

[nicksaviking]

Do you think the Twins will sign an ace in free agency if they DON'T have Tulowitzki on the roster?

I think the problem is that they thought they did, three times in the last two years actually.

 

I don't want them signing an ace, that rarely works out for the team. I want them to develop their own, just like winning clubs do, then sign and extend him with money not already wasted on declining vets.

 

I'd be on board with trying for Tulowitzki or Cole Hammels if this club hadn't already foolishly gave big fat deals to Mauer, Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. There's only 25 spots on the active roster, the Twins are supposed to lock up 20% of them on untradable and uncuttable aging players? It's not going to be pretty in a couple years when the team realistically should be a contender.

[DaveW]

Sigh. Yeah, I got "told".

 

*rolls eyes*

 

Care to revisit your completely baseless, statistically inaccurate, and anecdotal Escobar argument from a few pages ago, Dave?

Escobar is not a good baseball player.He should not be a starting player for a major league team at any position. Especially a contending one, Punto or Derosa are a much better option.

 

Rebuttal?

[Brock Beauchamp]

He has a 110 wRC+ as a shortstop and defensive metrics rate him as consistently average.

 

But yeah, other than that he's pretty terrible.

[DaveW]

He has a 110 wRC+ as a shortstop and defensive metrics rate him as consistently average.

 

But yeah, other than that he's pretty terrible.

.670 career OPS, 85 career OPS+. .684 ops this year. Yawn.

 

No range.

 

Yeah keep trotting out more and more made up things regarding Escobar.

 

Haven't seen a man crush like this on a crappy player since Nick N on Brendan Harris and Alaskan on Joe Dillon

[jimmer]

I don't know any Escobar Tulowitzki who plays for the Rockies so I don't think we should trade for him :-)

 

 

[tobi0040]

Tulo's career OPS on the road is .819. That was accumulated during his prime. It is safe his OPS the next 5 years will be lower and he is likely to be injured more than he has, which is a lot.

 

We would be effectively giving up on a borderline Top 100 prospect (polanco) AND likely have to part with a package centered around one the best two young pitchers in our system (JO or Gibson). Both are cost controlled through their prime which is invaluable.

 

Further. If we had a spare 100 million last off season we could have signed Hanley Ramirez who has a career OPS of .869. 50 basis points higher than Tulo's road OPS and we would not have to part with good assets.

 

Lastly. Roughly 90 million would be committed to a bunch of players in their 30's save dozier and Hughes. IMHO that prevents keeping a talented young core a few years from now because we have 32-35 year olds. It should not be the case but it is.

 

Lastly part Two. If we are going to part with crazy young players and take a huge salary back, I cast a vote for hamels. Not tulo. He has been healthier and does not have home park question marks.

[DaveW]

Tulo's career OPS on the road is .819. That was accumulated during his prime. It is safe his OPS the next 5 years will be lower and he is likely to be injured more than he has, which is a lot.

 

We would be effectively giving up on a borderline Top 100 prospect (polanco) AND likely have to part with a package centered around one the best two young pitchers in our system (JO or Gibson). Both are cost controlled through their prime which is invaluable.

 

Further. If we had a spare 100 million last off season we could have signed Hanley Ramirez who has a career OPS of .869. 50 basis points higher than Tulo's road OPS and we would not have to part with good assets.

 

Lastly. Roughly 90 million would be committed to a bunch of players in their 30's save dozier and Hughes. IMHO that prevents keeping a talented young core a few years from now because we have 32-35 year olds. It should not be the case but it is.

 

Lastly part Two. If we are going to part with crazy young players and take a huge salary back, I cast a vote for hamels. Not tulo. He has been healthier and does not have home park question marks.

Tulo has a .820 ops on the road this year, the decline certainly hasn't shown up yet!

[Mike Sixel]

So now it is 2017, but only if they develop an ace internally. ...then they are allowed to try to win it all?

 

Unreal. Who in this system looks like an ace?

[jimmer]

 

Tulo's career OPS on the road is .819. That was accumulated during his prime. It is safe his OPS the next 5 years will be lower and he is likely to be injured more than he has, which is a lot.

We would be effectively giving up on a borderline Top 100 prospect (polanco) AND likely have to part with a package centered around one the best two young pitchers in our system (JO or Gibson). Both are cost controlled through their prime which is invaluable.

Further. If we had a spare 100 million last off season we could have signed Hanley Ramirez who has a career OPS of .869. 50 basis points higher than Tulo's road OPS and we would not have to part with good assets.

Lastly. Roughly 90 million would be committed to a bunch of players in their 30's save dozier and Hughes. IMHO that prevents keeping a talented young core a few years from now because we have 32-35 year olds. It should not be the case but it is.

Lastly part Two. If we are going to part with crazy young players and take a huge salary back, I cast a vote for hamels. Not tulo. He has been healthier and does not have home park question marks.

How has Hanley looked this year?

 

Tulo has an AWAY OPS over .819 this year, and Tulo's away OPS has been heavily affected by NL West parks, as I've shown. Additionally, he can still play shortstop, which Ramirez can't.  Ramirez can't play anywhere and to say he was a below average shortstop when he did play there would be generous. It would give him too much credit. So we'd still need a shortstop.

 

Career wRC+ of 125 for Tulo and 131 for Hanley.  One has been a quality defender most of his career, they other, yeah, not so much.  Tulo has been and is still a much better player.

 

 

Edited July 22, 2015 by jimmer

[halfchest]

As good as Tulowitzki is I would rather have the Twins hold off for another year before making a big splash deal.  Also, if we were to make a move to acquire a superstar I'd much rather go after an Ace pitcher.  I'd much rather the Twins put their eggs in the Cole Hamels basket and try to make part of the deal offloading Nolasco's deal to open up both a rotation spot and save a few bucks.

 

I think the Twins have a better chance of finding a solid SS between Polanco/Escobar/Gordon/Santana than they do of getting a legitimate Ace pitcher like Hamels.  I guess with some nice organizational depth SS isn't as big of an issue to me and I see a better chance at them filling that void internally.

 

Now Ace Pitcher and/or C are the spots I could understand making a splash.  To me, Lucroy or Hamels should be the targets if the Twins are ready to make a splash.  I think they are a year away from making any moves of the sort though.  

[DaveW]

It should be noted that the Twins had the best pitcher in baseball, the ace of all ace's in Johan Santana and still failed to ever make a world series.

[Tibs]

 

So now it is 2017, but only if they develop an ace internally. ...then they are allowed to try to win it all?

Unreal. Who in this system looks like an ace?

Not going to be an ace, but I'm surprised that Taylor Rogers has been mentioned a handful of times in this thread while Tyler Duffey hasn't been mentioned at all. He is having a great year so far. He would come up to the majors before Berrios.

[howeda7]

If the later of those two were enough I'd do it in a heartbeat. Including Berrios gives me pause. He's the only thing we have resembling a true ace in the near-term. It's hard to win a World Series with Kyle Gibson or Phil Hughes as your best pitcher.

I don't think they can trade Gibson in the middle of a playoff race, I would give up Berrios +Polanco+Vargas+Nolasco for Tulo.

Or May+Polanco+Kepler+Nolasco for Tulo

The idea is you toss in Nolasco and don't have to ask the Rockies for money back.

 

[DaveW]

Brock's fiancé Escobar is crapping all over himself yet again at SS tonight, clearly the twins Are "set" at the position

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sick burn, bro.

[DaveW]

Sick burn, bro.

Rebuttal on his zero range? Instead of a double play he allows a game Clinching single and interferes with the runner to boot.

 

I'm sure you can make up some stats to justify it though bud.

[Captain Hindsight]

I am as big a fan of Tulowitzki as anybody and would love to be able to watch him as a member of the Twins. That being said, I would be less inclined to give up Gibson, Mainly because it would be a big blow to the current rotation but also because he is developing into a really good and unique pitcher with an ability to induce GBs at a high rate and produce K's.

 

Though you have to give something to get something, so I would live with Berrios being included along with Santana/Polanco (gives them a SS) as well as one of the position players that has fallen out of favor Vargas/Arcia/Pinto and another lesser piece likely a pitcher such as Duffey, Jorge or Rogers. If cash has to be included, take Nolasco. My cause for concern, and the reason I wouldn't want to include too much more is not only money owed but the injury history. No question he is one of the games very best when healthy but he has missed time throughout his career.

 

All this talk might be moot as he has said he wants to stay and the owner is a big fan.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/troy-tulowitzki-not-interested-trade-rockies.html#comments

[jimmer]

I see absolutely nothing special about Gibson at all.  He turns 28 this year, not 22 or 23. He is what he is at this point and it's nothing special at all.  If HE is going to be the centerpiece of this rotation for year to come, we are boned.

[T_J]

I love Tulo, I really do. I just can't see making a trade for in though. He is just hurt too much. There is no way I would move Gibson or Berrios. 

 

Another thing, Why do I keep reading that Berrios is too short to be an ace? He is six feet tall. We are talking about a major league pitcher right? Not a small forward. Plenty, I mean literally thousands of pitchers have been just fine playing at that height. Some of them have even been called aces. Some of them have even been called Hall Of Famers. Find something real to knock about him if you don't like him, but his height, really trying to stretch the criticism on that one.

[TheLeviathan]

So because some people aren't enamored with Gibson, we should move him to get Tulowitski?  An older player who has had trouble staying on the field?

 

This is somehow supposed to get us closer to....what exactly?  Another year of Mike Pelfrey?  I fail to see how that makes even an ounce of sense for accomplishing something this year or in the likely window with Tulowitski.

[jimmer]

When we start talking about Tulo being an older player, does it matter that Tulo is only three years older than Gibson? And that he's actually a proven top notch player for a decade as opposed to a pitcher who hasn't shown himself to be anything more than average at best?

Edited July 22, 2015 by jimmer

[TheLeviathan]

 

When we start talking about Tulo being an older player, does it matter that Tulo is only three years older than Gibson?

 

With his injury history?  Um, yes.  Yes it does.

 

I also fail to see how giving up one of our better, younger starting pitchers moves us forward.

[DaveW]

With his injury history? Um, yes. Yes it does.

 

I also fail to see how giving up one of our better, younger starting pitchers moves us forward.

What about Gibsons injury history?

[jimmer]

Tulo is an actual proven top notch player, and has been for a decade, The 'young' Gibson (who will be 28 going into the offseason) hasn't shown himself to be anything more than average at best.

[DaveW]

So because some people aren't enamored with Gibson, we should move him to get Tulowitski? An older player who has had trouble staying on the field?

 

This is somehow supposed to get us closer to....what exactly? Another year of Mike Pelfrey? I fail to see how that makes even an ounce of sense for accomplishing something this year or in the likely window with Tulowitski.

The problem Gibson will always have is he can't strike guys out and his stuff just isn't that good. Very good teams like the Angels will be able to take advantage more often then not.

 

I like Gibson, but he projects more to be a average two or nice 3 then anything else.

[jimmer]

 

The problem Gibson will always have is he can't strike guys out and his stuff just isn't that good. Very good teams like the Angels will be able to take advantage more often then not.

I like Gibson, but he projects more to be a average two or nice 3 then anything else.

I'll be shocked if he ever shows the skills to be a true #2.