Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[Jeremy Nygaard]

First and foremost, there are literally hundreds of thousands of trade conversations that happen between teams throughout the season and especially as the end of July rolls around. If the Twins weren’t talking to every team about ways to improve their team, that would be extremely disappointing.Jim Bowden posted a piece called Anatomy of a Trade (Insider required) yesterday at ESPN and - to everyone’s surprise - it was fantastic. It discusses how trades come together and he goes through a hypothetical trade that takes place… and how it progresses over the course of nearly 40 days.

 

This hypothetical trade ends with both teams coming to an agreement at the deadline. But you must keep in mind that for every one that goes through, there are probably hundreds that never grow legs and die.

 

One conversation that I can confirm has happened - and continues to happen - is between the Twins and the Colorado Rockies. It’s still in the infant stages. In fact, the idea sprouted after an All-Star break where the Twins All-Star second baseman, Brian Dozier, and the Rockies All-Star shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki, “bonded.”

 

As Bowden suggests in his piece, the first call is made and the initial offer is “usually lopsided and downright embarrassing.” I don’t know who made the first offer, but the Rockies’ top target is Kyle Gibson. They’ve also asked for Miguel Sano. The Twins target? Troy Tulowitzki.

 

Where do negotiations go from here? If the Rockies insist on a top arm, there are really only a couple of options. Besides Gibson, you’d have to imagine that Jose Berrios will be brought up. And possibly Trevor May and/or Alex Meyer to a lesser extent. But as far the “headliner” goes, only Gibson and Berrios could really fit in that category.

 

With ten days to go, this discussion could really morph in a lot of different directions. In the right deal, the Rockies would be willing to send some cash. (Seth covered Tulowitzki’s contract really well in this piece posted early today, so I don’t feel the need to re-hash it.) In any deal where money is sent, the Rockies would ask for a better return.

 

Would the Twins have interest in acquiring other pieces from the Rockies? Both LaTroy Hawkins and John Axford could be valuable additions to the Twins bullpen. The Twins have also asked about Rockies catcher Nick Hundley, who is under contract through next season and having his best offensive season since 2011.

 

If you’re wondering how the Rockies could deal the face of their franchise, it seems like they might be ready to move on from the duo of Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, with star 3B Nolan Arenado and All-Star 2B D.J. LaMahieu taking over. Moving Tulo, CarGo and potentially Charlie Blackmon could add a lot of valuable pieces to a franchise who has struggled almost as badly as the Twins have over the past five seasons.

 

None of that means that a deal is going to happen. Not with the Twins or with anyone else. All things have to line up perfectly for a deal to get done.

 

As one source familiar with the talks told me, if the Twins make it through their gauntlet-of-a-week this week, “talks will get serious and move fast.”

 

Whether you like Tulowitzki or not, the Twins are having conversations with the intent of getting better this year.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Really interesting article. Gibson probably makes more sense than Berrios for the Rockies as he is a groundball pitcher while Berrios is more of a flyball pitcher. I would consider Gibson plus another prospect/rookie (say, Polanco or Rosario) plus maybe a B level prospect (Walker or Hu) for Tulo plus some cash, but I doubt they would do that.  Honestly, I'd be more interested in trading for a catcher.

[nater79a]

I would like to see a Twins/Tulo trade just to see how the contract is divided up.

[DaveW]

I don't think they can trade Gibson in the middle of a playoff race, I would give up Berrios +Polanco+Vargas+Nolasco for Tulo.

Or May+Polanco+Kepler+Nolasco for Tulo

The idea is you toss in Nolasco and don't have to ask the Rockies for money back.

[diehardtwinsfan]

how many more years is Tulo under contract?  He's in a decline phase too, and while he's good, this target worries me because it's expensive and not likely to benefit nearly as much as I'd hope. 

[DaveW]

 

how many more years is Tulo under contract?  He's in a decline phase too, and while he's good, this target worries me because it's expensive and not likely to benefit nearly as much as I'd hope. 

016 31 Colorado Rockies $20,000,000 
2017 32 Colorado Rockies $20,000,000 
2018 33 Colorado Rockies $20,000,000 
2019 34 Colorado Rockies $20,000,000 
2020 35 Colorado Rockies $14,000,000 
2021 36 Colorado Rockies *$15,000,000  $15M Team Option, $4M Buyout

[Badsmerf]

Who will be more valuable going forward, berrios or Gibson? That is a tough question. Gibson is pitching fantastic right now but berrios is younger. I think any deal would have to include hundley. Trading Gibson also decreases the twins talent on the starting staff by a significant amount.

 

I would do berrios, chargois, arcia for the two of them. Wonder what their asking price is.

[Mike Sixel]

Hmmmmmm......I guess the question is, how much do you believe in Berrios? Enough to deal Gibson?

 

do I want Gibson and Berrios or one of them and Tulo? clearly, other players move as part of this......

 

I would have no issue including Polanco in any deal that includes Tulo. Would I do Berrios and Polanco and something else that is actually valuable? I don't know. I am more inclined to keep Gibson, since he is succeeding in the majors.....

[twinsfanstreif]

I would be reluctant to give up Berrios as I feel he could be the Ace we've been waiting for. Gibson would be hard to stomach but he's probably at his peak value and is likely to regress to an ERA somewhere in the mid 3s with low Ks making him a good but not great pitcher that's more of a #2/3 type. I'd be ok with parting with him for Tulo. A package of Gibson/May, Polanco, Meyer, and a mid level prospect like Harrison would be ok to me

[twinsfanstreif]

how many more years is Tulo under contract?  He's in a decline phase too, and while he's good, this target worries me because it's expensive and not likely to benefit nearly as much as I'd hope.

Without looking it up I believe his contract goes until 2021 with an option of some sort

[SwainZag]

Tulo would be a definite upgrade at SS, but he is a much different hitter away from Coors Field.

[Tibs]

I'd be willing to involve Gibson in a trade for Tulowitzki. Definitely not Gibson and Berrios. Berrios is a guy I would like to keep around, but Gibson might be turning into something before our eyes. I would be worried about trading Gibson and Berrios for Tulowitzki because I question if the Twins could have a good starting rotation without those two. If Tulowitzki stays healthy, that is an enormous upgrade to our infield and lineup as a whole.

[Guest]

If we want to be concerned about potential "decline" as Tulo ages, I understand. There should be no concern about the money. As weird as it is to say outloud, the Twins have more money than they need to make a deal for a $20M/year guy and I'd rather see them take on the entire salary expense than add an extra high-level prospect to the deal in order to get the Rockies to chip in cash.

[Vanimal46]

The show stopper for me would be Sano included in any part of this trade. Could you imagine him in Coors Field? 40+ HRs every year without a doubt. That would haunt our dreams....

[DaveW]

 

Tulo would be a definite upgrade at SS, but he is a much different hitter away from Coors Field.

.820 OPS away from Coors is still amazing for a SS.

[DaveW]

 

 

The show stopper for me would be Sano included in any part of this trade. Could you imagine him in Coors Field? 40+ HRs every year without a doubt. That would haunt our dreams....

There is like zero chance Sano is traded,  fans would burn Target field to the ground.

[DaveW]

The only way you can trade Gibson is if you are confident that Berrios is ready to step into the major league rotation immediately afterwards.

 

If you aren't, I don't see how you can trade your best SP at this point.

I like Berrios a lot as well, but his height worries me and has me doubt he will ever be the "ace" we all hope for, though It think there is a very good chance he ends up as a good #2 type.

[AKTwins]

I wouldn't trade Gibson or berries. Each the contract money and send a combo of the following: Kepler, Vargas, Meyer, may, walker, Harrison, Polanski, Tonkin, Hu, Stewart.

[DaveW]

 

I wouldn't trade Gibson or berries. Each the contract money and send a combo of the following: Kepler, Vargas, Meyer, may, walker, Harrison, Polanski, Tonkin, Hu, Stewart.

You have to give up someone of value, the list of takers for Tulo would be quite long and someone would offer something of value. None of those guys listed are good enough to be a centerpiece for a true game changer.

[HitInAPinch]

Interesting.  The story and you have a source with knowledge of the trade market. 

Kudos !!

 

Yeah, I get it, it's really early in the discussions.  However..... 

 

Tulo has an injury history, so I'd be real careful to weigh that into the equation.  More important:  trade Gibson now?  I just can't see it.  He's the one young pitcher who's proving himself.  And I can't see further depleting the starting staff by including Berrios. 

 

I'd probably try Hughes, May, add in a MiLB pitcher not named Berrios and Hicks and/or Arcia.  From the Rockies:  Tulowitzki, Axford & Hawkins, Hundley and, oh, tossing an A-AA prospect, or 2.

 

LOL,  good luck with that!!

[DaveW]

Hughes would be a poor fit for that stadium, and the Twins aren't going to trade Hughes after signing him to two contracts in the last two years, that would be poor form/business practices. Hughes is going to be a Twins for at least the next couple years at the very least.

[TheLeviathan]

I love the idea, but I'd be lying if Tulo's injury history and splits away from Coors didn't give me pause at the price tag to trade him.

[nicksaviking]

Just when we were starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel with the Mauer contract...

[Steve Lein]

I wouldn't really "like" any deal that brought Tulo here if it means sending Gibson or Berrios off, along with whatever else they needed to get it done (absolutely "NO WAY" on Buxton or Sano), but this is kind of a problem that was created the last few seasons using Free Agency to fix the rotation.

 

They have Ricky Nolasco at $12MIL/year through 2017.

Phil Hughes at basically $13MIL/year through 2019.

Ervin Santana at 13.4MIL/year through 2018.

 

Then Gibson under team control through 2019, Milone under control through 2018, and May under control through 2020.

 

Add in names like Meyer and Berrios, and suddenly you have way too many pitchers for not enough spots through the next three seasons.

 

Would anyone else consider this a surplus? We probably should, so theoretically the best thing the Twins can do for their short and long term future is use this surplus to improve other areas. Shortstop certainly is a good spot to start.

 

If they would take Berrios or Gibson, then Arcia, Nolasco, and perhaps Polanco or another fringe top 10 guy, I think you'd have to do it. Is that a deal they would want? Not so sure about that, but that's about as much as I would want the Twins to spend. Maybe Meyer's name gets thrown in, and I'd certainly want Hundley or a RP's name from their side too.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I love the idea, but I'd be lying if Tulo's injury history and splits away from Coors didn't give me pause at the price tag to trade him.

 

Have you looked at his away splits, and compared those to other SS? They are still very, very good. And, remember, this is a bump of some kind for all home games, but yes, coors makes that even bigger.

[Ben Noble]

 

I wouldn't trade Gibson or berries. Each the contract money and send a combo of the following: Kepler, Vargas, Meyer, may, walker, Harrison, Polanski, Tonkin, Hu, Stewart.

 

 

You have to give up someone of value, the list of takers for Tulo would be quite long and someone would offer something of value. None of those guys listed are good enough to be a centerpiece for a true game changer.

 

Depends on how the Rockies view Polanksi. While his sordid criminal history could make him a clubhouse cancer, he's had prominent supporters in his corner over the years, too. And while I think we can all agree that he's well past his Chinatown peak, I don't think it's unreasonable to hope for another Pianist-like late-career resurgence.

 

 

[Willihammer]

No no no no no. I'm not even that high on Gibson but that would be a horrible deal.

[nicksaviking]

Good scoop, but you know Jeremy, if you are looking to further your jounalistic career, you might want to consider breaking this news on something a little more high profile than Twinsdaily!

 

Either way, we know MLBTR monitors this site, they may pick up on this and credit you.

[Willihammer]

Its hard to imagine a better candidate in all of baseball turning into an albatross in the next 1-2 years. All the red flags are there (injury history, declining power, increasing K's, etc).

 

He couldn't stay on the field in his 20s. I'd wager his 30s will only get worse.

Edited July 21, 2015 by Willihammer

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I would really encourage you - if you have the ability - to read Bowden's piece. It discusses in depth the ebbs and flows to making a deal. Asking for Sano, from what I was told, left the Twins FO "not happy" and ended dialogue. But that shows a willingness on Colorado's end to at least talk about moving him. Eventually someone calls back. (Which happened.)

 

There are a lot of contract things that would make a deal for Tulo hard to pull off - a $2 million trade-kicker, a clause that says he can only be traded once in this contract. The Twins should counter with asking the Rockies to kick in way more money than they'd ever feel comfortable with. Because that at least sets the boundaries. 

 

I just said on Twitter I'd put the odds of the Twins acquiring Tulo in the next days at 3%. But the bigger picture - that part that should make us happy as Twins fans - is a willingness to kick really big tires. 

 

The likelihood is that this deal doesn't happen. But I'm not backing off anything I wrote.