Article: Examining The Shortstop Options

[Seth Stohs]

We are ten days from the July trade deadline. Yesterday, Nick wrote about the Twins biggest need, behind the plate. But if catching is the team’s #1 need, would shortstop be #1b?

 

Should the Twins continue to stand by young Danny Santana or turn things back to Eduardo Escobar? Should they look outside the organization for an option, or should they take a shot and hand over the job to Jorge Polanco?Let’s start by considering the internal options.

 

DANNY SANTANA

 

A year ago, Santana was a surprise call-up to the Twins. He stuck and shocked most who had paid any attention to his minor league statistics. He hit .319 and showed good power to go with his speed. Of course, he played primarily centerfield instead of shortstop and finished seventh in American League Rookie of the Year voting.

 

To call his sophomore season a slump would be kind. For the most part, 2015 has been a disaster for Santana. As I went to look at where his statistics compare to other MLB second baseman, I hit a wrong button and ended up with a report that showed me 248 players with 200 or more plate appearances. It was ranked by WAR and guess who came in at the bottom of the list? That’s right. Danny Santana’s -1.7 WAR is worst in baseball. 247^th on that list was Jimmy Rollins at -0.9 WAR.

 

Put another way, if the Twins had gone with a replacement level player such as Doug Bernier or Argenis Diaz instead of Santana this season, they likely would have had significantly better production from the shortstop position.

 

Among 29 shortstops with over 200 plate appearances in 2015 Santana ranks last with a .241 on-base percentage and .547 OPS. His .306 slugging percentage ranks 27^th of 29, while his .221 batting average comes in at 26^th.

Santana came into the season with the full support and backing of Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor. They wanted to give the 24-year-old every opportunity to improve. As late July approaches and the Twins remain a legitimate playoff hopeful, it’s hard to imagine he has too much more rope.

 

One other consideration is that Santana is out of options in 2016.

 

 

EDUARDO ESCOBAR

 

Last year as a 25-year-old, Eduardo Escobar earned the Twins starting shortstop job. In fact, many would argue that he did enough to have been handed the gig in 2015. Of 32 shortstops who accumulated 300 plate appearances in 2014, Escobar ranked 21^st with a 1.1 WAR.

 

All spring, Escobar said the right things, but he had to be disappointed to return to a utility role. He has played in just 18 games at shortstop this year, less than Eduardo Nunez. Meanwhile, he has inexplicably played in 32 games in left field, including 27 starts. He has been average, or slightly below average at both positions.

 

After hitting .275/.315/.406 (.721) with 35 doubles and six home runs a year ago, his bat hasn’t taken off this year. He is hitting .254/.284/.400 (.684) with 19 extra base hits. Although not great, it would be around average for an MLB shortstop.

 

 

JORGE POLANCO

 

Polanco’s Major League stat line looks pretty impressive. He has hit .333/.500/.667 (1.167). Of course, that’s just 12 plate appearances.

Signed for his glove work as a 16-year-old in 2009, Polanco’s offense has been what has carried him to AAA and those short stints with the Twins. He played in 67 games with Chattanooga this season and hit .301/.347/.409 (.755) with 14 doubles, two triples and four home runs. Upon his promotion to AAA Rochester, he has hit .298/.317/.351 (.668) in 14 games.

 

The issue with Polanco at this point looks like his ability to play shortstop. He had 16 errors and a .939 fielding percentage in AA. He has seven errors and an .865 fielding percentage in 14 games with the Red Wings. However, it is important to note that he had six errors in just his first six games for Rochester.

 

 

EXTERNAL OPTIONS

 

Or, do the Twins need to look outside for a shortstop? Here are a few options:

 

JIMMY ROLLINS

 

Last week on 1500ESPN.com, Phil Mackey wrote about a “somewhat crazy, yet realistic trade idea.” The 36-year-old Rollins is hardly playing better than the 24-year-old Santana. Hitting just .204/.259/.322 (.581). As mentioned above, his -0.9 WAR is second-worst to only Santana. He would certainly provide another veteran voice on the Twins roster, and I can’t imagine that it would take much of a prospect to acquire him.

 

The Dodgers also have mega-prospect Corey Seager pretty much ready at AAA. Rollins had his 2015 option vest last year and is making $11 million. The hope would, of course, be that he would play like Orlando Cabrera did down the stretch in 2009.

 

JEAN SEGURA

 

25-year-old Jean Segura made his MLB debut as a 22-year-old in 2012. After one game, he was part of a trade that sent Zack Greinke from Milwaukee to the Angels. He has been the Brewers every day shortstop since the deal.

 

In 76 games this year, he is hitting .276/.305/.346 (.650) with six doubles, three triple and three home runs. After stealing 44 bags in 2013 (when he was an All-Star), he stole 20 last year and has 13 this season. When the Twins played the Brewers, Segura’s effort-level was questioned on several occasions and that isn’t something new with him.

 

Segura is making just $534,000 in 2015, but he will be arbitration-eligible after the 2015 season for the first time. The Twins would have his rights for the next three years which certainly makes him a bit more intriguing. Yet, it makes it less necessary for the Brewers to deal him, so the Twins would need to give up more to get him.

 

 

ZACK COZART

 

Cozart has been the shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds since 2012. He is making $2.35 million this year, his first arbitration-eligible season. In 53 games, he is hitting .258/.310/.459 with ten doubles and nine home runs. His .769 OPS so far in 2014 is over .110 points higher than his career average and one would assume that he would not hit for as much power in Target Field as he has with the Reds.

 

The 29-year-old is very strong defensively up the middle. His range is average, but he is very steady and consistent. Since he still has two more years of control, I would expect the Reds to ask quite a bit for him.

 

 

TROY TULOWITZKI

 

Here is the name we all dream about, right? Tulowitzki was the seventh overall pick of that tremendous 2005 draft out of college and quickly got to the Rockies late in the 2006 season. Since then, he has played in five All-Star games, won two Gold Gloves and two Silver Slugger Awards.

 

In 82 games this season, he is hitting .320/.365/.502 (.866) with 19 doubles, 12 homers and 52 RBI. His best years were 2009 through 2011. He has been one of the best offensive shortstops through much of his career.

 

The concerns with Tulowitzki are clear. First, there will always be questions for a player who leaves the offensive-friendly confines of Coors Field. Second, Tulowitzki has not been able to stay on the field consistantly. He played just 47 games in 2012, 126 games in 2013, and 91 games in 2014. But when he is healthy, he puts up big numbers. Defensively, he has always been very good. He has average range, but a strong arm and steady hands. At 30, it’s fair to wonder aloud how long he would be able to remain at shortstop.

 

And those numbers helped him sign a ten year, $157.7 million deal before the 2011 season. He has five years and $98 million remaining on the deal after this 2015 season. He will make $20 million each year from 2016 through 2019. He’ll make $14 million in 2020, and then he has an option for 2021 at $15 million with a $4 million buyout. There are also quite a few bonuses that he will get for MVP votes, All-Star appearances and other individual achievements.

 

The other hurdle in a possible Tulo-to-the-Twins deal is the fact that the Twins would have to give up a ton to acquire the shortstop. Those trade negotiations likely start with a combination of J.O. Berrios and Jorge Polanco, and then the Twins would likely need to add a couple of more pieces as well. That level of prospect is what would motivate the Rockies to consider dealing their popular shortstop.

 

 

So, what should the Twins do at shortstop? Up-the-middle defense is important. Nick wrote about the catcher position yesterday, and today we consider shortstops. The trade deadline is just ten days away. Put yourself in the GM's shoes and think about what is best for the organization, short-term and long-term. What would you do?

 

Click here to view the article

[Blackjack]

 

Start by giving the every day SS job to Escobar, see if he can provide better defense and pick up his batting, see if he is an every day SS or a utility player.

 

 

They need to be patient with Santana, the Twins have two other examples of players that took time to develop in Plouffe and Dozier.  Send him to Chattanooga (since Rochester is occupied by Polanco) and let him get his hitting stroke and confidence back. 

 

 

Leave Polanco in Rochester for now, let him play every day, see if he can iron out his defense.

 

 

With these three battling for the starting spot and with each having the potential to be a long-term starter, I don't see the Twins making a trade, these guys need to play.  After the season possibly trade one of them.

 

Give this rotation five weeks, until the end of August, then pick two to be on the ML roster, for the hopeful playoff run.

 

 

[Linus]

I am enjoying these articles, but like the catcher thread yesterday, I feel the biggest need is still the bullpen.

 

SS is the area I would address third as I still think they have internal options that are young.  For the time being, I would put Escobar at SS and send Santana down to work on becoming our SS of the future. 

 

Just say no to Tulo - it would be fun but no way do you give up the motherload of prospects and take on that contract with a 30 year old that can't stay on the field.

[HitInAPinch]

Twins should have started where they left off last year.  D. Santana in CF and E. Escobar at SS.  Both were successful over a good sample size.  I'm still puzzled as to why they did this.

 

I'm of the mind that the Twins are not playoff material.  Overall, I think any trade should be made with an eye towards the future and not a playoff run.  The only one's I would contemplate are Escobar, Cozart and Segura. 

 

 

[dbminn]

Stick with internal options this year.

• Rollins and Segura are not upgrades.
• Tulo is too old for his contract and for a young Twins team. 
• Cozart is injured and won't return until next year.

The Twins can explore trades for a younger SS in the offseason, if the deal is right. Cozart would be a possibility at that time.

 

I would like to see the Twins follow the model of teams that have been successful for a number of years. The Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals and Giants all have everyday lineups that are primarily homegrown*. Both the Cardinals (Pujols, Freese) and the Giants (Sandoval) have replaced established contributors with younger players, all while competing for championships.

 

(*Some of the players were obtained while either in the minors or while under control.)

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

The Twins are getting league average SS play when looking at the offensive splits. According to OPS, they were 13 at the all star break and 15 today as many are lumped in the middle.The average SS line has an OPS of .657. The Twins split at SS is .656 that includes Danny Santana's 547.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=38&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d

 

Clearly Molitor believes Santana is better than that. If at some point he stops believing, he has options on his bench that will provide a better than league average SS bat.

 

While SS gets the focus here due to Santana, the production has been OK compared to the league. The same can not be said about LF, CF, DH and 1B. Their production at those positions is clearly below the median. They have a solution at DH. The CF production will be better without Schafer. LF is better when they aren't playing shortstops out there. Perhaps biggest need #1b is 1B.

[puckstopper1]

The Twins need at SS is very short term (the rest of this season any maybe 2016).  By then, hopefully either Santana, Polanco or Nick Gordon will be ready and able to grab the position long term.  As a result, I'd be very hesitant to bring in someone who is no more than a stop-gap option.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

 

The Twins can explore trades for a younger SS in the offseason, if the deal is right. Cozart would be a possibility at that time.

 

 

 

I don't even know if I'd pursue Cozart at that time. He might not be ready for Spring Training.

 

LINK

[TheLeviathan]

Boy have things changed quickly at this position. (For good and then for bad again)

[Vance_Christianson]

If we are going to make a trade for SS, then I say lets do it and make a splash! TULOWITZKI!!!!!

Trade: Kohl Stewart, Jorge Polanco, Oswaldo Arcia, Taylor Rogers

 

By us getting Tulo for 5 years, he can play SS for the next 2+ years till Nick Gordon is ready than he can move over to 3b.

 

Batting Lineup:

1. Dozier - 2b
2. Mauer - 1b
3. Tulo - SS

4. Sano - DH
5. Plouffe - 3b

6. Hunter - RF

7. Rosario - LF
8. Hicks - CF
9. Suzuki - C

 

By us adding Tulowitzki, I think that he'll be enough to give us that extra push to get into the playoffs and catch the Royals! I'm fine with giving up 3-4 prospects as long as it isn't renting a player for a few months. In this case, it's for 5 years.

[nytwinsfan]

My vote is for Escobar to be the starting SS the rest of this year. He is an average big league regular, and our needs at Catcher and Relief Pitcher are much more pressing if we are going to make a move. In fact, I'm fine with Escobar at SS until Polanco figures it out in the field or Gordon is ready in 3 years.

[Mike Sixel]

Give the job to Escobar, demote Santana to AA (or Polanco to AA). Normally I'd say play Santana, to get the young guy time.....but, Escobar isn't that old, Santana is not a super prized prospect (imo), and they are contending. Give the team the best chance to win, please.

 

Frankly, I think Polanco is a 2B, and he should be dealt, but that's a different thread......

 

I don't like any of the targets Seth listed all that much.

[tobi0040]

Tulowitski would be a terrible move.  He is almost 31 and under contract through 35-36.  I also think Coors has made him over-rated.  He is a very good player.  But he has a career road OPS of .819 vs. .958.  His road BA is .277 vs. .324. 

 

I would have brought up Polanco about a month ago.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It appears the Twins are viewing Eduardo Escobar's 2014 season as a fluke, and Danny Santana's 2014 season as not a fluke.

 

Or maybe Escobar gets bench because he misses a sign occasionally, or does some other little thing that the coaches don't appreciate, and Santana gets the start because he tries hard and needs the repetitions. Not sure what's going on.

[nytwinsfan]

 

The Twins need at SS is very short term (the rest of this season any maybe 2016).  By then, hopefully either Santana, Polanco or Nick Gordon will be ready and able to grab the position long term.  As a result, I'd be very hesitant to bring in someone who is no more than a stop-gap option.

Your disregard for Escobar is inexplicable to me, but I agree about being hesitant.

 

If we are going to make a trade for SS, then I say lets do it and make a splash! TULOWITZKI!!!!!

Trade: Kohl Stewart, Jorge Polanco, Oswaldo Arcia, Taylor Rogers

No way would the Rockies do that. Not even close. At a minimum it would take Berrios plus something more. Also, as numerous people have noted before, Arcia has more value in a trade to an AL team, for obvious reasons. Just in general I don't think Tulo makes sense as a target and would be disappointed if we mortgaged the future for him. I also think we shouldn't trade Arcia unless we get good value for him, which is unlikely right now.

[nytwinsfan]

 

It appears the Twins are viewing Eduardo Escobar's 2014 season as a fluke, and Danny Santana's 2014 season as not a fluke.

Or maybe Escobar gets bench because he misses a sign occasionally, or does some other little thing that the coaches don't appreciate, and Santana gets the start because he tries hard and needs the repetitions. Not sure what's going on.

 

Not sure what is going on either. I admit at the beginning of the season I agreed with letting Santana play SS to see if he could continue to hit almost as well as last season while playing adequate D.  That obviously did not work. As of about sometime in May (and continuing to now) I am for putting Escobar back at SS full-time with Nunez as a backup and letting Santana continue to work on his plate discipline in the minors.

Edited July 21, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Rosterman]

Let Escobar run with it.

 

polanco can be kept around anotehr season, if need, be, as backup at second if Dozier goes down. Santana is a place setter until Gordon or Javier arrives.But let him work things out in the minors.

 

Don't get a $20 million a year shortstop contact. The prospects are potentially there.

[Major League Ready]

 

Give the job to Escobar, demote Santana to AA (or Polanco to AA). Normally I'd say play Santana, to get the young guy time.....but, Escobar isn't that old, Santana is not a super prized prospect (imo), and they are contending. Give the team the best chance to win, please.

 

Frankly, I think Polanco is a 2B, and he should be dealt, but that's a different thread......

 

I don't like any of the targets Seth listed all that much.

Mike,

 

I think you hit on the key here.   Is Polanco a SS or 2B?   They might be keeping him at SS to promote a higher trade value.  If the FO thinks he is best suited at 2B then they should try to trade him for a catching prospect.   Another possibility and I am sure some will strongly disagree but I would not be opposed to selling high on Dozier if someone was willing to pay big, including a catcher.  Then, bring up Polanco.  Send Santana down and let Escobar play SS.  That way you see if you can fix Santana while seeing if Escobar can perform like he did last year with regular playing time.  Either way you hopefully fix catcher long-term.

Edited July 21, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready

[Mike Sixel]

MLR, good to read from you again......

 

I would be very hard pressed to trade Dozier, very. I think he's a top 15-20 or so player right now. You rarely win in the elite for numbers game, and I don't know what C I could get that is even close to Dozier. I'd have to think long and hard about it (there are a lot of players I'd trade him for, but they won't be traded....).

[Winston Smith]

Go for a package of Segura and Lecroy. Duensing plus whatever it takes. A post season chance is there, time to make use of the farm system when the chance is there.

Position players that play every day will do more than a relief pitcher that might pitch once or twice a week, imo.

[Tibs]

I'd rather give the job to Escobar than trade for someone right now. You could send Santana down. I'm not sure who the Twins call up in his place. Maybe Beresford to be another utility guy.

[tobi0040]

 

Go for a package of Segura and Lecroy. Duensing plus whatever it takes. A post season chance is there, time to make use of the farm system when the chance is there.
Position players that play every day will do more than a relief pitcher that might pitch once or twice a week, imo.

 

Love it

[toosweet64]

What about Clint Barmes or Jed Lowrie as a stop-gap, half a year rental? I realize Barmes is on the old side of the equation and Lowrie is hurt a lot but both would improve the defense, wouldn't hit any less than Santana in the 9 spot, and not really cost anything significant. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

What about Clint Barmes or Jed Lowrie as a stop-gap, half a year rental? I realize Barmes is on the old side of the equation and Lowrie is hurt a lot but both would improve the defense, wouldn't hit any less than Santana in the 9 spot, and not really cost anything significant. 

 

why not just use Escobar then?

[Oxtung]

Santana has more range, a better arm and more speed on the bath paths than Escobar so I understand why they keep trying him out. Personally I'm ok with Escobar, polanco or Santana going forward. I just don't want to see the team waste time and prospects at a position where there are viable alternatives.

[jimbo92107]

Back to my two themes for this year. 1, don't sell farm before harvest, and 2, keep experimenting with early call-ups.

 

Send Danny Santana to AAA, bring up Jorge Polanco. Do it this week, and let him play SS for a month. Have him work with the fielding coach just like Santana did to smooth out the footwork.

 

Santana's biggest problem still is his approach at the plate. Better for him and the Twins if he works out those problems in AAA than to be a hole in the lineup. Meanwhile, Polanco showed signs of being an exciting ballplayer, another spark plug for this team.

[mickeymental]

problem solved in two words: nick punto.

[Danchat]

I'm going to echo many others here, but why not Escobar? He's the best offensive and defensive combination currently on the team. I would be OK if they gave Polanco a shot to win it in July-August. I'd like to see if Polanco could work defensively, and his bat would be a huge improvement too.

 

If the Twins make the playoffs, Santana can't be the starting SS. He needs to work on his swing at AAA.

[Matt Kummer]

Send Santana down. Give Escobar the SS job. Nunez becomes the super-utility. Arcia gets called up as a left handed DH/PH option.

This improves the Twins as follows:

1. They're likely to get league average production from Escobar at SS. His numbers are terrible for a LF. For a SS, a .685 OPS with average defense is a vast improvement over Santana.

2. Nunez can spot start in the IF, and in LF. His bat is clearly more valuable than his fielding.

3. Arcia gives you LH hitting power to slot in at DH or off the bench as a PH. He should only see the field in an emergency. He's there to hit for power. Let him have a role where he can do just that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

To be perfectly frank, shortstop isn't even on my radar beyond "start Escobar already... what the hell is wrong with you guys?"

 

Unlike catcher and the bullpen, the Twins have internal options at short that have either proven the ability to competently play the position (Escobar) or have enough upside to warrant a roll of the dice (Polanco). I'd go with Escobar but whatever... choosing Polanco wouldn't make me mad or anything.

 

The Twins also have internal bullpen options but they refuse to use them for some reason. It's... confusing.

 

So, catcher. Go find a catcher.