Sellers - - - - Buyers - - - - ?????

[ltwedt]

Mid season, Twins - should they be sellers or buyers?

 

Here is something to consider:

 

In the past 28 games (June, and 1 in July) - the Twins are 15-13, are 3rd in MLB in hits, 8th in OBP, 14th in SLG, and 9th in OPS. They are 8.5 games out of the lead in the miserable AL Central. Now - if you ignore 2011, and focus only on 2012, especially the past 28 games, - -- is this a team that should be unloading?

[biggentleben]

They're absolutely sellers. No question.

[Brock Beauchamp]

They need too many starters to contend. Better to try to stock up and make a run in either 2013 or 2014.

[IdahoPilgrim]

We got fooled on this last year - chasing a false chance to contend and missing opportunities to restock the system at the trade deadline. Not this year.

[Mike Sixel]

why would I ignore the past year, and only look at 28 games?

 

Sellers...

[minn55441]

Mid season, Twins - should they be sellers or buyers?

 

Here is something to consider:

 

In the past 28 games (June, and 1 in July) - the Twins are 15-13, are 3rd in MLB in hits, 8th in OBP, 14th in SLG, and 9th in OPS. They are 8.5 games out of the lead in the miserable AL Central. Now - if you ignore 2011, and focus only on 2012, especially the past 28 games, - -- is this a team that should be unloading?

SELLERS!! You didn't list any pitching stats. Pitching wins games. with the expanded playoffs, this should be a good year to be on the selling end of the transaction.

 

I just hope Ryan makes the right trades. Good value for the players that we don't need or have the ability to replace in the near future.

[edavis0308]

You are delusional if you think this team should be buying.

[rnw24]

sellers...and its not even close.

[Riverbrian]

Sellers... Failing to acquire or develop Arms could lead to an uncomfortable period of non contention that will be longer than we care to tolerate. Getting hot and climbing back in the race would be a bad thing for the future of this organization.

[Highabove]

[Crotalo]

Most likely sellers. But you can wait 10-14 more games and see. If they go 11-3 and are 3 games back, then I'd keep who they have. They can unload Capps regardless. I don't think the pen is worse without him by much.

[grover738]

Sellers, sellers, sellers, sellers. Sellers.

 

I'd be happy with these guys traded:

 

Either Span or Willingham. (man I wish Benson was knocking on the door so they could trade them both)

3 of these 4: Burton, Perkins, Liriano, Grey

 

Anyone who wants Capps, Valencia, Casilla, or Pavano thrown in can have them. Morneau is more complicated. I'd trade him if someone actually offered someone the twins throught would slot into the twins system as a top 15 prospect, but I doubt that would be offered.

 

I'd love it if the Twins sent a big package to one team - say Span, Burton and Liriano, and got a AA pitcher that could contribute in 2013 or 2014. Build around Gibson, Diamond, the new pitcher, a FA signing, and Hendriks/Walters/Bromberg/Wimmers/FA signing. Sheesh do they need starters.

[twinswon1991]

The Twins have been the worst team in the AL since the last 2 months of the 2010 season. This team has Zero chance of competing if they add Hamels and Greinke.

 

The sole focus should be building the farm system for a run in 2014 or 2015.

[Mike Sixel]

Oh, well, if they add Greinke and Hamels, then yes, they should keep buying, but that's not going to happen, not even remotely.

[jorgenswest]

I hope the management sees it in a different way.

 

Teams are always buyers. At some point, a team will go from buying for 2012 to buying for 2013.

 

At this point the priority should be to take care of assets that will no longer be under team control after the season. They did that with Doumit. I would have preferred a trade this summer, but they did something to buy for 2013.

 

They have four options with Liriano and their rights to around 17 more starts.

 

1-Trade and receive whatever 13-17 Liriano starts is worth

2-Extend his contract this summer.

3-Plan to offer compensation level contract and minimally guarantee two picks or his return for a year.

4-Let him leave in free agency.

 

Any of the top three buy with 2013 in mind. The Twins can't let option 4 occur even if the return seems too low.

 

The other decisions regarding 2013 include options for Baker and Capps and an expiring contract for Pavano. Should they be buying any of these assets for 2013?

 

Unfortunately, all of these guys are injured. At best, they may find someone to take Pavano in a waiver claim deal in August. Their medical team will have to guide them in deciding about Baker. He is certainly capable of returning the value left in his option if healthy. Is Capps worth 6 million next year? I don't think so. I hope they can turn him into a different 2013 asset. If they have decided they are not going to pick up his option, they must trade him for whatever is the best deal.

 

Every other player is under contract for next year. Any trade has to clearly leave them better off for the future.

 

Morneau - If they find a team to take his contract and turn those dollars into starting pitching in the winter free agent market, it is a buy for 2013. Any return in the trade would be a bonus.

 

Span, Willingham, Perkins... - It is very unlikely they will be better off in 2013 by trading them this summer. In fact, there is no evidence to support that a midseason trade brings more value. A trade this winter is no less likely in returning value. While it is true that there is more urgency midseason, the winter offers more potential buyers and much more roster flexibility to make a deal. There were only three midseason deals last year that netted players from Baseball America's top 100. It took Beltran, Pence and Jimenez to return that value. It doesn't seem likely that the Twins have better to offer. The closest comp to Span, Michael Bourn, netted 4 mediocre prospects.

 

The Twins are buyers. Buying for the future.

[DaveW]

The Twins have been the worst team in the AL since the last 2 months of the 2010 season. This team has Zero chance of competing if they add Hamels and Greinke.

 

The sole focus should be building the farm system for a run in 2014 or 2015.

Hamels, Greinke, Diamond, Liriano, (who cares) looks like a playoff caliber rotation to me...just sayin...

[old nurse]

While there are hopes and dreams of selling, that has not been Ryan's MO. Trade something of value to get value in return. The one exception was Kyle Lohse. The Twins have available at best bit parts for other teams. That will not net a starter unless Ryan can steal one. (Mays for Kelley et al.) The Span talk is exercise unless someone really blows Ryan away. He has never sold vital assets at that point in years of service

[Brock Beauchamp]

This team has Zero chance of competing if they add Hamels and Greinke.

They'd probably be the best team in the Central with Hamels and Greinke.

[jorgenswest]

Why would Hamels or Greinke sign with the Twins? They will have several options. The only way is to significantly overpay in terms of years and dollars.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why would Hamels or Greinke sign with the Twins? They will have several options. The only way is to significantly overpay in terms of years and dollars.

They wouldn't and I don't think the Twins should pursue the issue. Overpaying for one starter when the entire rotation is in shambles is not a winning philosophy. This isn't basketball.

[twinswon1991]

They'd probably be the best team in the Central with Hamels and Greinke.

If the Twins were to get those guys I doubt they leapfrog anyone other than the Royals. They would have to give up Rosario, Arcia, maybe Sano, Plouffe, Revere,Dozier, and one of Span/Willy to pull that off. The lineup would be decimated.

 

To examine the terrible state of affairs try to think like any opposing GM and try to find minor league talent or cost contolled mlb players you would like to acquire off this team. This is why the Twins must ne sellers, they have a lost generation of talent due to terrible trades and drafting.

[SweetOne69]

If the Twins were to get those guys I doubt they leapfrog anyone other than the Royals. They would have to give up Rosario, Arcia, maybe Sano, Plouffe, Revere,Dozier, and one of Span/Willy to pull that off. The lineup would be decimated.

 

To examine the terrible state of affairs try to think like any opposing GM and try to find minor league talent or cost contolled mlb players you would like to acquire off this team. This is why the Twins must ne sellers, they have a lost generation of talent due to terrible trades and drafting.

They definitely won't trade for Greinke or Hamels so they won't give up anyone to get them. If they pursue them (which they won't), it would be as Free Agents in the offseason.

[Blackjack]

I think the Twins showed their hand when they extended Dumait, with Willingham, Mauer, Morneau, you have a core worth building around. Add a couple of good starters and they're in contention next year. If you blow up the team by trading all your decent assets (Perkins, Span, Ploufe, Burton, etc.) then all you have is the two lame ducks with big contracts (Mauer and Morneau) sitting there, with a crappy team around them, hoping all these 'prospects' you pickup mature.

 

Span might go though, since they have Revere to replace him. Thats the type of trade that Ryan will make, identify where they have 'extra' players and trade them for needed parts.

[CDog]

Couldn't the answer be neither? As has been stated many places, the entire flock of position players is under contract. There's a ton of money coming off next year and the year after. Could the strategy be to take the lumps the rest of this year, trying to stay competitive and find people that can help around the fringes, and then go after two really good starting pitchers in the offseason AND a few other smaller pieces? I know a lot of people hate that strategy thinking things need to get blown up. I'm honestly not sure which would be more effective. But it's possible that they neither buy nor sell as part of their long term plan, no?

[James]

I hope the management sees it in a different way.

 

Teams are always buyers. At some point, a team will go from buying for 2012 to buying for 2013.

 

At this point the priority should be to take care of assets that will no longer be under team control after the season. They did that with Doumit. I would have preferred a trade this summer, but they did something to buy for 2013.

 

They have four options with Liriano and their rights to around 17 more starts.

 

1-Trade and receive whatever 13-17 Liriano starts is worth

2-Extend his contract this summer.

3-Plan to offer compensation level contract and minimally guarantee two picks or his return for a year.

4-Let him leave in free agency.

 

Any of the top three buy with 2013 in mind. The Twins can't let option 4 occur even if the return seems too low.

 

 

I agreed with this whole post except for one little detail. Your option 3 would actually be buying for 2013 if he signed, or 20XX with the draft picks (depending on the pick).

 

If you think of selling now as buying for the future, it doesn't sound so bad. So, as everyone has pointed out already, there is no way the Twins should try and trade to be better this season. As well as the Twins have been playing recently, they haven't reduced how many games they are behind in the division. I say build for next year with whatever trade chips you have, but keep some of the big pieces (Like Span, Willingham, even Morneau) unless you are blown away from an offer. I have a feeling that TR has very similar feelings on this issue.