Article: Perkins And The Pursuit Of Perfection

[Nick Nelson]

Concerns swirled around Glen Perkins at the end of the 2014 season. After dominating consistently for the first five months, the Minnesota closer fell apart in September, allowing eight earned runs and four home runs in six appearances, with only one strikeout.

 

It was uncharacteristic to say the least, based on what we've seen from Perkins as a reliever. Fresh off extending his contract through 2017, the shocking struggles led some to wonder whether the 31-year-old was beginning to break down.

 

The answer, it turns out, is a resounding no.Perkins has been about as good as anyone could ask this year, converting all 28 of his save chances with a 1.21 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. For a team with as little margin for error as the Twins, he has been beyond crucial. Perkins leads all AL relievers in Win Probability Added at 2.80, and even that seems to understate his impact.

 

We saw over the weekend how demoralizing it can be to see a victory turn into a defeat in the final inning. The Twins jumped on Joakim Soria to rally back from a 6-2 deficit on Friday night, and it's hard to imagine that the devastation from that loss didn't feed into Detroit's flat efforts on Saturday and Sunday.

 

Perkins has avoided any such meltdowns. Hell, he has mostly been able to avoid any hot water. He has faced 104 batters in save situations and allowed 18 hits, just two of them for extra-bases. Rarely have opponents even been able to muster a threat.

 

Now the question is whether he can keep it going.

 

Last September's arm fatigue was somewhat ominous and Perk's usage this year has been almost the same (he has 38 appearances, compared to 39 at the break a year ago). Yet, the savvy and self-analytical closer has always been extremely adept at managing his body – this piece from Jim Souhan in the Star Tribune on his workout routine, which involves no weight lifting, was quite interesting – so I have faith in his ability to stay away from a repeat.

 

Still, it's something that should be kept in mind when people start complaining every time Perkins isn't used in a close game outside of a save situation. Reducing wear on his arm is more important than a statistic, even if that's not the main motivation.

 

And when it comes to that statistic, Perkins is potentially headed toward rarified air. He's on pace for 51 saves, which would break Joe Nathan's franchise record of 47, set back in 2009. His 28 consecutive conversions this year represent his entire running total (he blew his final save chance in 2014), so he's got a long way to go in order to reach Eric Gagne's incredible MLB record of 84.

 

However, Perkins could become the first closer to convert every save chance in a season since Jose Valverde went 49-for-49 back in 2011. Valverde finished fifth in the Cy Young voting and his Tigers won 95 games en route to the AL Championship Series. The last to accomplish the feat before that was Brad Lidge, who nailed down all 41 of his opportunities and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting while the Phillies cruised to a World Series victory.

 

Clearly, the recent track record for baseball teams with closers who convert every save is very, very good. And that's not exactly a coincidence. When you've got a guy who legitimately turns games into eight-inning affairs, it makes things a whole lot easier.

 

The Twins were lucky enough to have that luxury for many years under Joe Nathan, who had one of the greatest stretches for a closer in baseball history from 2004 through 2009 and ranks seventh all-time in saves. Now, in Perkins, they have a successor who is somehow just as effective as Nathan in his prime.

 

He's also a Minnesota native, closing out games for the same team he grew up watching. You could hardly write it up more perfectly. How much history can Perkins make before his remarkable 2015 campaign reaches an end?

 

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[Minniman]

Perkins will blow a save in the NFC ALCS to lose the series. All Minnesota fans will remember is that one blown save.

[Brandon]

Similar to the Anderson kick of 98. All season all field goals in playoffs missed chip shot to loose game

[HitInAPinch]

Sorry, Nick.  I'm just not a believer in the current version of the Save.  I believe Perkins gets too many cheap saves. 

 

(i.e.  #3a condition:  He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning)

 

To me, that's not "saving" anything.  Make that 1 run and I'm a believer.

 

 

[SwainZag]

 

Sorry, Nick.  I'm just not a believer in the current version of the Save.  I believe Perkins gets too many cheap saves. 

 

(i.e.  #3a condition:  He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning)

 

To me, that's not "saving" anything.  Make that 1 run and I'm a believer.

 

If Perkins getting more cheap saves than other closers?  His 28 this year:

 

3 run saves: 7

2 run saves: 11

1 run saves: 10

 

Regardless of what you think of the save statistic, he has been one of the best relievers in the entire league this year.

[HitInAPinch]

 

If Perkins getting more cheap saves than other closers?  His 28 this year:

 

3 run saves: 7

2 run saves: 11

1 run saves: 10

 

Regardless of what you think of the save statistic, he has been one of the best relievers in the entire league this year.

 

You are reading far to much into what I posted.  I never said that.  And never said he was a bad reliever.  All I'm saying is [and by the stats you list], my opinion is 64% of Perkins saves are not worthy of a save.  They're all more like Holds.

[Secondary User]

Hold = non game ending save. They're the same thing

[108 Double Stitches]

 

Perkins will blow a save in the NFC ALCS to lose the series. All Minnesota fans will remember is that one blown save.

 

That sounds about right.  Or the Twins, after the blown save ties the game, will blow the chance at a winning the ALCS in walk-off fashion after taking a knee by being too conservative.  Finally they lose in extra innings.

 

Which of these do you remember?

    Gary Anderson's perfect regular season as a field goal kicker

    Gary Anderson's post season miss. 

    Taking a knee.

[Minniman]

Pfffft!

 

 

http://photos.gograph.com/thumbs/CSP/CSP862/k21447375.jpg

[DaveW]

Sweet Jinx bro!