Article: Why Brian Dozier Has Been So Good At Baseball

[Parker Hageman]

“That’s the first time I’ve been asked that.”

 

That was Twins’ second baseman Brian Dozier’s response when asked why he had such a successful track record with pitches up in the zone. And for a fraction of a second, I was shocked at the lack of attention to an obvious trend before Dozier unleashed an all-knowing smirk. He was putting me on. He and everybody else who came into his locker and shoved a microphone in his face were keenly aware of his talent for damaging baseballs that were elevated.

 

It is impossible to miss.Over the past two seasons, Dozier has been a one-man wrecking machine on anything that dared enter the upper-third space of the strike zone. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s database, since 2014 Dozier is outpacing all other sluggers with 26 home runs on pitches left up. The Angels’ Albert Pujols comes in second at 20 followed by Josh Donaldson at 16. On top of that, Dozier’s 63 extra base hits on pitches up far exceeded anyone else’s totals (Pujols is the next closest at 36).

 

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“I’ve heard metric in the book where all my power is left field and up-in-the-zone and up-and-in,” Dozier said. “There’s a reason for that. I’m not going to tell you but there is a reason for that. It’s more feel for the game than anything.”

 

The real mystery is why teams continue to even challenge Dozier with pitches at belt and above. Given his tendencies, one would expect that pitchers would strive at all costs to avoid that area of the zone. However Dozier sees more pitches up than any other hitter. While the average hitter sees pitches in the upper portion of the zone 25% of the time, Dozier leads baseball with a 40% upper zone rate.

 

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When asked if he was surprised that pitchers were feeding him so many pitches up in the zone, Dozier said he was not. He still sees his share of sliders down-and-away and fastballs away so going upstairs -- particularly up-and-in -- keeps him from camping on other pitches.

 

In addition to being a power threat to any sphere tossed up in the zone, Dozier also has become one of the league's most extreme pull hitters. Since the start of 2014, he has collected over 89 extra base hits when pulling the ball. The next closest in that category is Colorado’s Nolan Arenado with 79. In that time, Dozier has hit more home runs to the pull-side (39) than anyone but Jose Bautista (45), Albert Pujols (42) and Edwin Encarnacion (41).

 

“Why don’t I hit more balls to right field. Why do you want to go out to right when the shortest distance is to left?” Dozier remarked.

 

 

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Duh.

 

Dozier’s methods has led to him being one of the most prolific offensive threats at the second base position. Since the start of the 2014 season, his 41 home runs far exceed the others at his position. He holds a 12 dinger lead over Neil Walker of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the next closest competitor in that time. He has 21 home runs more than Detroit’s Ian Kinsler and St. Louis’ Kolton Wong and he has 23 more home runs than the highly compensated Robinson Cano in Seattle. Dozier’s 104 total extra base hits also leads the field by a wide margin (Kinsler is second at 85 extra base hits). He is also not someone who has sacrificed discipline for power either. Among all second baseman, Dozier leads with 123 walks. The next closest is Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis at 77. When you view the metrics, it is hard to understand why anyone wouldn’t want Dozier on their All-Star roster.

 

 

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Still, while making the All-Star team would be a fine marketing accomplishment for the Twins and certainly a lifetime achievement milestone for Dozier himself, the real prize would be if he can continue this production in the second half of the season. Last season, he cruised to the break with 18 home runs but managed just five more in the latter portion of the year.

 

Fans deserve to see the best player at each position in the Midsummer Classic. However, if Dozier gets a few days to rest, don’t be upset either. As long as he is still able to catch up to the high pitch and pull the living fire out of it, he will continue to be one of the top players in the game.

 

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[Pitz]

Great article, but I think the title is a bit misleading. The information is fantastic, but it doesn't really tell us why he's been so good as much as it tells us more specifics about what he's good at and how good he's been at it. Of course its difficult to analyze the 'why,' especially when the player is not going to give away the reasons.

 

Thanks for the analysis, Parker.

[Parker Hageman]

The information is fantastic, but it doesn't really tell us why he's been so good as much as it tells us more specifics about what he's good at and how good he's been at it.

 

 

He swings a stick at a round ball and the ball goes far. How's that? 

 

[sane]

He swings a stick at a round ball and the ball goes far. How's that?

That's a pretty defensive (snarky) response to a legitimate comment. How's THAT?

[Parker Hageman]

That's a pretty defensive (snarky) response to a legitimate comment. How's THAT?

 

 

It was not meant as snark but rather a tongue-in-cheek remark. I understand what Pitz was driving at. 

 

My post wasn't meant to detail why Brian Dozier has been good at baseball overall. I'm sorry if the title insinuated as such. To be fair, I'm not sure what more could be done to appropriately answer that question: Super genetics? Hard-work? Impeccable timing? Quick wrists? 15,000 hours of practice?

 

I do appreciate the read and taking the time to comment on the post. 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Parker, me thinks you are a victim of your own success here   People are expecting a full fledged scouting report. 

 

That said, there was a time when I thought some of the MI prospects coming up in the system would be better than Dozier.  I don't think so.  Not quite sure how long his peak will be, but right now the Twins are looking pretty good for that extension and he's looking like an elite cornerstone player.  I just wish he was a couple years younger at this point. 

[sane]

You did fine.

Maybe if Dozier would candidly answer your questions about:

1) Why he doesn't get surprised by THAT PITCH! (high, inside fastball), unlike most other hitters...How does he mentally prepare?

2) How he can hit THAT PITCH and still have his hands ready for low and away.

3) Are any of his swing mechanics different from other hitters, enabling him to do what is so difficult for those other hitters?

If Dozier won't properly explain, you are limited in your analysis to what he WILL discuss.

[68ford79]

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't Dozier miss a couple games with a bad back (or something) the middle of last of year.  I vaguely remember that for some reason, and never felt he was the same (power numbers) after that.

[jimbo92107]

What puzzles me is why pitchers don't feed Dozier nothing but heat and sliders and changes low and outside. Why tempt fate with anything else?

[sane]

 

What puzzles me is why pitchers don't feed Dozier nothing but heat and sliders and changes low and outside. Why tempt fate with anything else?

If a batter KNOWS every pitch will be in the same location, that pitcher has no chance.

You cannot stop a hitter from diving on an outside pitch, if you NEVER jam him.

[spinowner]

 

If a batter KNOWS every pitch will be in the same location, that pitcher has no chance.

You cannot stop a hitter from diving on an outside pitch, if you NEVER jam him.

If I were a pitcher I'd rather have Dozier hit a single to right than hit anything to left. I'd still mix up my pitches but keep everything in the low outside quadrant of the zone. Let him dive at that until he hits it better than the up and in.

[Pitz]

Sorry, I didn't intend my comment in a negative way. I really appreciate the analysis and it certainly gives insight into where Dozier is experiencing so much success and how successful he has been in comparison to others. His success is fantastic and coming from a guy who was never considered much of a prospect is remarkable. I just didn't know if there was some mechanical change, or change in approach, etc. that might indicate why he's been able to essentially remake himself as a hitter. But Dozier doesn't seem to want to give that away and fairly so. 

[sane]

 

If I were a pitcher I'd rather have Dozier hit a single to right than hit anything to left. I'd still mix up my pitches but keep everything in the low outside quadrant of the zone. Let him dive at that until he hits it better than the up and in.

It is your (the pitcher's) choice, but Dozier is now a .260 hitter. Pitch him low and away ALWAYS, and you may make him a .300 hitter with fewer HR's.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Doesn't it seem like if you focus low and away, he will become a .400 OBP player, still with 25 homers?