Article: The Relief Pitcher Trade Market

[Nick Nelson]

Earlier this week, I ran through the setbacks that have struck nearly every high-upside reliever in the Twins' system. A day before, Seth had run through some of the bullpen options that are available to the Twins in the minors, but none look like difference-makers at this point in time.

 

So if the Twins want to upgrade their most prevalent weakness for the stretch run, they will need to make a trade. What's out there, and what would it take to get something done?First, let's discuss the merits of making a deal. I've seen many people suggest that giving up prospects for temporary relief help is an ill-advised and short-sighted strategy, and to some extent, that's true. The Twins absolutely must avoid anything resembling a Wilson Ramos-for-Matt Capps swap, where a valuable future piece was forfeited to bring in a rather ordinary bullpen arm.

 

However, that trade is not exactly the standard. The Twins, like many other teams, have been able to add quality relievers in July (and August) without giving up too much. Minnesota also faces an interesting situation with its stacked system leading to potential overcrowding on the 40-man roster. While protecting the A-level prospects shouldn't be a problem, there are numerous second-tier guys in the minors that might be appealing to other clubs, and the Twins would benefit from moving those youngsters for a return before being forced to risk losing them for nothing.

 

One other player to keep an eye on as a trade chit is Oswaldo Arcia, who has turned it on in Triple-A recently with six home runs in his last nine games but has no clear path to playing time in Minnesota. He'll be out of options next year.

 

As the trade deadline approaches, it's a seller's market with so many teams theoretically "in the race" due to the close groupings of W/L records and the presence of four wild-card spots, but there are a lot of relievers out there who could be available and some might not cost all that much.

 

Here's a breakdown of some stand-out names:

 

Neal Cotts - LHP, MIL

 

Right now the Twins are relying on Brian Duensing, who has a 6.00 ERA and 11/10 K/BB ratio, and Ryan O'Rourke, who has two major-league appearances, as the lefty options in the pen, so the allure of an established veteran southpaw is obvious. Cotts fits that bill: the 35-year-old is averaging more than a strikeout per inning and holding left-handed batters to a .533 OPS. He's an impending free agent for a last-place club, making him an obvious trade candidate.

 

Will Smith - LHP, MIL

 

If the Twins want to target a younger player with more long-term appeal, Smith is an intriguing option in the Brewers bullpen. The 25-year-old has been a dominant force over the past three seasons, averaging 11.6 K/9 and holding opponents to a .224 average. He would obviously take more to get, but he's under team control for a couple more years and could be a fixture. Would an Arcia-for-Smith swap make mutual sense?

 

Francisco Rodriguez - RHP, MIL

 

Rounding out our look at Milwaukee's relief corps is the club's closer, a five-time All-Star who is enjoying another exceptional year. In Perkins-like fashion, K-Rod has converted every save chance this year, carrying a 1.41 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 37-to-9 K/BB ratio in 32 innings. With those numbers, and his closer status, he'll be a pricy acquisition, but the club could use a dominant right-handed setup man with Casey Fien and Blaine Boyer failing to impress. Rodriguez is signed through next year, with an option for 2017.

 

Alexi Ogando - RHP, BOS

 

Once a talented young starter for the Rangers, Ogando saw his stock drop off a cliff during an injury-plagued 2014 campaign and had to settle for a one-year, $1.5 million deal with Boston. He has made good, and is holding opponents to a .223/.289/.439 slash line in 31 appearances out of the Red Sox bullpen.

 

Joaquin Benoit - RHP, SD

 

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported yesterday that the Twins are interested in Benoit, a long-time excellent reliever who recently pitched for the Tigers. The 37-year-old is enjoying a characteristically stellar year for the Padres, with a 2.25 ERA and .133 opponents' batting average, and could be the lockdown eighth-inning guy that Minnesota needs as a bridge to Glen Perkins. He's making $8 million this year, with another $8 million option for 2016.

 

Zach Putnam - RHP, CWS

 

The Sox are mired at the bottom of the Central and would likely be open to moving players for young talent, even if it means doing business with a division rival. Putnam has moved around quite a bit -- he's with his fourth organization since 2011 -- but has really found a late-inning groove over the last two seasons, with 2.62 ERA and 87-to-33 K/BB ratio in 82 innings. He is 27 and has four years of team control remaining.

 

Mark Lowe - RHP, SEA

 

Lowe signed with Seattle on a minor-league deal in the offseason and has been doing tremendous work out of the Mariners bullpen since being called up in early May. In 27 innings, he has allowed only 21 hits, and zero homers, for a 0.67 ERA. He has 23 strikeouts in 14 innings since the start of June.

 

Tyler Clippard - RHP, OAK

 

Trading an impending free agent closer for prospects at the deadline after falling out of the race early is exactly the kind of move you'd expect from the Athletics, so Clippard seems highly likely to go somewhere. Will it be Minnesota? The bespectacled righty offers the performance, track record, and bat-missing stuff that the Twins are likely seeking in a late-inning upgrade, but with free agency approaching, he probably wouldn't care for being dealt to a destination where he can't add to his saves total.

 

LaTroy Hawkins - RHP, COL

 

Hawkins debuted with the Twins 20 years ago, in 1995, and at age 42 he is still somehow getting big-league hitters out. Since returning from an early-season stint on the disabled list, Hawk has a 0.84 ERA with 10 strikeouts and one walk over 10 2/3 innings. Reuniting him with bullpen coach Eddie Guardado would be a fun story, and the price to acquire Hawkins couldn't be that high.

 

Christian Friedrich - LHP, COL

 

The former first-round draft pick fizzled out as a starter in Colorado, but has found his niche as a lefty specialist out of the Rockies bullpen, where he is holding same-sided hitters to a .203/.262/.271 line. Just 27 and not yet in his arbitration stage, Friedrich is a guy who could stick around for a while.

 

Steve Cishek - RHP, MIA

 

Not only is Cishek's last name similar to Pat Neshek's, his quirky delivery and historical dominance are also reminiscent of the former Twins reliever in his prime. Over the past four years, Cishek has posted a 2.70 ERA with 281 strikeouts in 253 innings for the Fish. He's currently going through his toughest season, and was actually sent to Double-A at the beginning of June, but he has looked much more like himself since returning from the brief demotion.

 

Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald stated earlier this month that the Marlins are willing to move Cishek, adding that he's unlikely to be tendered in arbitration this winter.

 

Jim Johnson - RHP, ATL

 

Johnson has never been a big strikeout guy but has always been effective late in games, and led the league in saves as Baltimore's closer in both 2012 and 2013. He endured a messy 2014 campaign but has bounced back this year with the Braves, putting up a 2.14 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 43 appearances as an oft-used setup man. Johnson hasn't allowed a run since June 6th. He just seems like the kind of guy Minnesota would target.

 

What do you think? Do any of the names listed above appeal to you? Are there other names potentially on the market that intrigue you? Sound off in the comments.

 

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[Willihammer]

Welp, Duffey throws hard, doesn't walk many, and is dominating AAA. Seems like a worthy candidate and all it would cost is a 40 man spot. Meyer has promise. Taylor Rogers?

[Willihammer]

One guy that might make for an interesting trade target is the recently demoted 5th starter whose stuff plays up in short stints. Wil Smith was that guy 2 years ago, now he's a stud whose value is a lot higher than a Nori Aoki-rental. So was Wade Davis. Maybe that guy exists on team with a stacked rotation - Nats, Mets, etc?

 

edit: evidently the Aoki for Smith trade occurred in the winter so a bit more than a rental I guess.

Edited July 10, 2015 by Willihammer

[HitInAPinch]

I've already suggested Benoit, Cotts and Hawkins.  If Terry Ryan had just listened to me, this situation would already be resolved! 

:-)

 

If memory servers.......

Doesn't Perkins typically wear out sometime around mid-August?  Rodriguez would be a nice pickup, but he definitely wouldn't want to stay in that situation next year

[AKTwins]

I suspect the twins will go with someone that doesn't cost too much, Cotts makes the most sense. They could probably get him for Levi Michael

[diehardtwinsfan]

The idea of swapping Arcia for a reliever (no matter how good said reliever is), makes me cringe.  I realize he's not a premium defender, but you are talking about a potential premium bat in exchange for a guy who might pitch 60 or son innings in a season.  For a guy like Will Smith, I'd be interested in dangling someone like Burdi to get him if they want upside, or possibly a bit of a lower ceiling position prospect.

[tobi0040]

 

The idea of swapping Arcia for a reliever (no matter how good said reliever is), makes me cringe.  I realize he's not a premium defender, but you are talking about a potential premium bat in exchange for a guy who might pitch 60 or son innings in a season.  For a guy like Will Smith, I'd be interested in dangling someone like Burdi to get him if they want upside, or possibly a bit of a lower ceiling position prospect.

 

Agreed.  Long term I see Sano in RF or LF and Arcia as your DH.  So I think he has value for this franchise as well. 

 

The other thing, lots of these guys are under control past this year and this team has a group of guys where I think we can find two studs.  Meyer, Burdi, Reed, Chargois, a converted starter in the minors, etc.

 

And if you wanted to go out and give a 2 year $16M contract to a reliever next off-season you can probably get a pretty good one.

 

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

How about let's not be trading anyone away for used-up old codgers? Hawkins, Benoit, and K-Rod? Puhhhleaze, girlfriend.

[gocgo]

Never been a fan of Hawkins' laser straight fast ball.  It tends to leave the park in a hurry...followed by the fans.

[nicksaviking]

Is Perkins required to be the closer? Because if not, I haven't heard anyone mention Craig Kimbrel. He's having a down year with two more years under contract for a team that went big and whiffed. He's almost certainly the kind of contract a traditionally low budget team with buyers remorse would be willing to unload at the right price, even though they would deny it to any reporter who asked.

 

Perkins could be the lefty in the pen, unshackled of the closer title and free to be used when the need was greatest.

 

Not that I make the trade; I do like to throw stuff out there though.

[d-mac]

 

The idea of swapping Arcia for a reliever (no matter how good said reliever is), makes me cringe.  I realize he's not a premium defender, but you are talking about a potential premium bat in exchange for a guy who might pitch 60 or son innings in a season.  For a guy like Will Smith, I'd be interested in dangling someone like Burdi to get him if they want upside, or possibly a bit of a lower ceiling position prospect.

 

I'd bet against Arcia ever being a good major league hitter. His plate discipline is just too poor.

[jorgenswest]

I'd bet against Arcia ever being a good major league hitter. His plate discipline is just too poor.

I hope the Twins haven't placed their bets yet. He is way too young. They need to find 150 plate at bats for him in the second half.

[gocgo]

...and then there's always Joba Chamberlain.

[mikelink45]

NO - let's build from within.  Do not trade the future for mediocrity or short term.  We have done that in the past and there is no  plus.  

[ashbury]

I'd bet against Arcia ever being a good major league hitter. His plate discipline is just too poor.

Plate discipline or pitch recognition? Because if it's the former it seems like it could be changed by him making basically a decision, but if it's the latter then coaching an improvement seems much harder.

[lukeduke1980]

Brewers are glad to take our outfielders we've given up too early on...

[Otto von Ballpark]

I guess he wasn't mentioned in this thread, but Jason Grilli is out for the season now:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/jason-grilli-out-for-season-with-achilles-injury.html

[nicksaviking]

I guess he wasn't mentioned in this thread, but Jason Grilli is out for the season now:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/jason-grilli-out-for-season-with-achilles-injury.html

Eh, only one functioning Achilles kind of scares me. I guess I trust him more than Fien and Boyer going forward though.

[biggentleben]

 

Eh, only one functioning Achilles kind of scares me. I guess I trust him more than Fien and Boyer going forward though.

 

Then it's done. Since the Braves don't acquire hitting prospects, they'll bypass Sano and Buxton and settle for Berrios for Grilli straight up. He does have a contract for next year, too, so you are getting a very good deal on a non-rental!

[tobi0040]

 

Welp, Duffey throws hard, doesn't walk many, and is dominating AAA. Seems like a worthy candidate and all it would cost is a 40 man spot. Meyer has promise. Taylor Rogers?

 

Rodgers minor league numbers against lefties (just posted in "the future is upon us thread").  Absolutely no reason why we need to trade for a lefty specialist when we have him sitting in AAA

 

2015 - .397 OPS in 128 PA.  37-2 K to BB.  29% K rate.
 

2014 - .555 OPS in 153 PA  40-8 K to BB.  26% K rate.
 

2013 -.524 OPS in 140 PA. 42-4 K to BB.   30% K rate.
 

2012 -.520 OPS in 50 PA.   18-0 K to BB.  36% K rate

[drjim]

 

Rodgers minor league numbers against lefties (just posted in "the future is upon us thread").  Absolutely no reason why we need to trade for a lefty specialist when we have him sitting in AAA

 

2015 - .397 OPS in 128 PA.  37-2 K to BB.  29% K rate.
 

2014 - .555 OPS in 153 PA  40-8 K to BB.  26% K rate.
 

2013 -.524 OPS in 140 PA. 42-4 K to BB.   30% K rate.
 

2012 -.520 OPS in 50 PA.   18-0 K to BB.  36% K rate

 

And the current lefty specialist in the majors has (arguably) even better stats against lefties. Twins certianly don't need a LOOGY.

[tobi0040]

 

Then it's done. Since the Braves don't acquire hitting prospects, they'll bypass Sano and Buxton and settle for Berrios for Grilli straight up. He does have a contract for next year, too, so you are getting a very good deal on a non-rental!

 

You don't trade a top 30 prospect in the game, a 21 year old starting pitching in AAA for a reliever, let alone a 38 year old.  I would completely freak out.

Edited July 14, 2015 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

 

And the current lefty specialist in the majors has (arguably) even better stats against lefties. Twins certianly don't need a LOOGY.

 

Yup. O'Rourke's OPS against below. 

 

.569 in 2015.
.291 in 2014.
.464 in 2013.
.410 in 2012.

 

Go out and get a 7-8th inning guy.   Use the lefty speclialist more.  And flip Graham and Boyer in higher leverage situations. Graham's 2.85 ERA falls to under 2.00 if you remove one of his 24 appearances.

[drjim]

You don't trade a top 30 prospect in the game, a 21 year old starting pitching in AAA for a reliever, let alone a 38 year old. I would completely freak out.

Clearly we need a sarcasm button...

[biggentleben]

 

You don't trade a top 30 prospect in the game, a 21 year old starting pitching in AAA for a reliever, let alone a 38 year old.  I would completely freak out.

 

Clearly we need a sarcasm button...

 

Yup.

[tobi0040]

 

Yup.

 

Forgive me.  The trades are usually so lopsided in the Twins favor the one that goes the other way I think is real.

 

I also missed that Grilli is hurt on the first page.

[ashbury]

You don't trade a top 30 prospect in the game, a 21 year old starting pitching in AAA for a reliever, let alone a 38 year old.  I would completely freak out.

Of course not. You also have to throw in Duensing as a sweetener.

 

_{^{/ is what they meant to say...}}

[Twodogs]

I didn't see anyone mention Papelbon, he sure doesn't want to be in Philly any longer.  I'd say he'd be a good add if the price was right?