Article: The Secret Behind Twins' Pitching Success

[Parker Hageman]

The Minnesota Twins are unexpectedly competing this season, thanks in part to a significant improvement in preventing runs. In 2014, the pitching staff allowed an American League high 4.80 runs per game. This season they are allowing 4.06 runs per game, a 15% reduction in runs allowed.

 

It is still perplexing as to how the Twins are accomplishing this feat. True, the outfield defense is noticeably better and more balls in play are being converted to outs but other indicators, like strikeout rates, are worse. The Twins’ pitchers are outperforming their fielding independent expectations by a wide margin. According to xFIP, a statistic that calculates what a pitcher’s expected ERA should be at based on grounders induced, strikeouts gotten and home runs avoided, the Twins should be hovering near the bottom of the league in terms of runs allowed. However, their overall ERA has been significantly better.

 

How has the Twins pitching staff outperformed expectation to this point in the season? The secret lies with pitching coach Neil Allen.Since his arrival we have heard the tale of Neil Allen’s ability to convince the young pitchers to harness the power of the change-up. From 2009 to 2014, the Rays outpaced everyone by deploying the change-up 14.5% of the time. Naturally, the narrative would be that Allen would come to Minnesota and bestow the same secrets on the Twins’ pitching staff. But, in terms of sheer total percentage of pitches thrown, this has not happened. While the usage is up slightly for Minnesota from 2014, even when accounting for Mike Pelfrey and Ricky Nolasco’s splitter preference the Twins pitching staff still trails well behind the rest of the league in 2015.

 

So every other pitch is not a change-up. And pitchers like Phil Hughes have not greatly altered their pitch selections by learning a change-up. That said, the Twins have found great success on the occasions that they have used their change-ups this year.

 

In 2014, hitters had their way with the Twins’ change-up. Opponents hit .288 (29th out of 30) and posted a hefty 747 OPS. While the rest of the league’s pitchers kept hitters to a .234 average, Kevin Correia (.357), Tommy Milone (.341), Trevor May (.259) and Kyle Gibson (.244) all found themselves above that mark. While Correia was recently released by the Phillies, Milone (.241), May (.215) and Gibson (.179) have reconnected with the pitch this year, posting significantly improved averages against on change-ups. At a collective .207, they now hold the fifth-lowest average against on the change-up.

 

It was not just throwing more change-ups – it was using them under specific conditions.

 

“That’s the one thing me and Neil really talked about a lot and I really wanted to work on was executing change-ups to righties,” said Gibson this past March. “It’s a pitch that looks really similar to my sinker when I have the same release point I think it’s something that is really going to help my sinker against righties.”

 

Allen shared his theories and approach with the players in the spring. Everyone acknowledged they were on-board but no one with the Twins would divulge Allen’s secret recipe when it came to the change-up. From his perspective, when it came to the change-up catcher Kurt Suzuki said it is nice to have another finger to put down. Other pitchers echoed that mentality – the added bullet would be nice to have in the arsenal. Still, the chatter around the Twins camp was not that the change-up in and of itself was going to be the miracle out-pitch -- it was also going to set-up the miracle out-pitch.

 

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The Rays have been long known to be a savvy, smarter-than-you organization. Their front office is basically a Harvard bar with equations on the wall and ****.

 

In The Extra 2%, baseball writer Jonah Keri documented how the organization’s analytics team running that ball club would stop at nothing to find any edge they could. Those findings were highlighted in obvious situations like the use of infield shifts or found when the Rays’ lineup would eschew the natural platoon advantage against pitchers who held quirky splits. The Wolves of Wall Street were now running a ball club with that same take-every-dollar attitude. They hired the sharpest minds and grabbed every scrap of data they could, compiled it into a proprietary database and studied it to ultimately move the needle to their advantage.

 

In the spreadsheets and on the field, the Rays found that the change-up was a highly underutilized weapon. Change-ups fell out of vogue in the modern world as teams craved fastball velocity and wicked benders to put away hitters. Meanwhile there was value to be had for the teams that creatively applied change-ups. While most organizations avoided throwing change-ups to same-sided hitters, the Rays mandated it.

 

“We’ve got a process that, when you hit Double-A, you’ve got to be able to throw your change-up to righties and left-handers, no matter what side you throw from,” Allen, then with the Rays organization, told Baseball Prospectus. “It’s become a weapon that we started a few years ago. There were a lot of guys coming to Triple-A that couldn’t throw their change-up for strikes righty-on-lefty or lefty-on-righty. The change is a great pitch if you utilize it [well], but we started getting into the philosophy that if it works opposite arm to opposite hitter, why don’t we start trying it righty-on-righty and lefty-on-lefty.”

 

In the majors, the Rays paced the game with far more same-sided change-ups than the rest of the league -- but mainly in righty-to-righty situations. From 2009 to 2014, as the Minnesota Twins’ right-handed pitchers threw change-ups to right-handed hitters 5.3% of the mix, the Rays threw it a whopping 12.6% of their mix. Perhaps as a result, right-handed pitchers for the Rays held the right-handed hitters to a .243 average while the Twins finished last in that category with a .279 average.

 

Since Allen’s hiring, the Twins have followed a similar pattern. Gibson has increased his usage of the change-up overall (from 12% to 17%) and much of that has come against right-handed hitters. In 2014, he threw the pitch to the same-side 1.5% of the time but uses it 14% of the time this year. Trevor May has thrown his change more to righties as well (from 9.9% to 13.2%). Milone, on the other hand, has thrown the pitch less against lefties this year than he has in the past. Despite flashing a solid change-up to David Ortiz in spring training, Milone has abandoned that pitch in favor of a cutter. The Rays southpaws were hesitant to throw the pitch to other lefties as well -- Rays lefty Matt Moore cited the left-handed hitter’s natural low swing plane as a deterrent to throwing to the same-side.

 

What the Rays discovered is that not only is the change-up effective in same-sided circumstances, but the change-up is also potent when thrown consecutively. From 2009 to 2014, the Rays threw the most change-ups but they also threw the highest number of change-ups after change-ups. And when the Rays pitchers doubled up on change-ups -- which they did a MLB-high 32% of the time -- they held opponents to a .189 batting average against.

 

The Rays stacked change-ups like no other team. But the idea wasn’t just to throw out two change-ups in a row. The idea was to hammer the bottom of the zone.

 

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Download attachment: Changeupo.png

In addition to the same-sided usage, the strategic sequencing with the change-up has played a significant role in Twins’ pitchers abilities to generate outs.

 

“I know that he’s a little bit analytical but not really but the stuff that he tells me that I see from an analytical side and it’s stuff that makes a lot of sense,” Twins closer Glen Perkins said about his new pitching coach and the emphasis on the change-up this spring. “I talk to hitters when we are playing cards after the game or standing in the dugout or whatever and the kinda things they are thinking.... [Allen’s] thinking from a hitter’s perspective on it.”

 

Although he personally doesn’t throw a change-up, he toys with it during warm-ups and thinks about having it ready in the event that his devastating fastball-slider combo ever fails him. Perkins, an analytical mind on the mound, was intrigued by Allen’s sales pitch on the chang-eup.

 

The discussions in the clubhouse, in team meetings and during bullpen sessions are well and good, though applying the ideas into game situations can be tricky.

 

In Tuesday night’s game against the Orioles, Gibson recorded three outs on the change-up, including a strikeout in the third of the right-handed Adam Jones. While that may have been just a line of code in the PitchF/X system, the righty-on-righty success was a noteworthy milestone to Gibson. In 2014, Gibson was attempting to incorporate more change-ups against righties when he found himself tangling with Jones in Baltimore. Jones timed a change-up to perfection and launched a long home run. That encounter, Gibson admitted, reduced his confidence in turning to the pitch against righties. But over the offseason and into the spring, Allen provided support for Gibson and pushed him to use the pitch more to righties.

 

While the change-up led to three outs, Gibson also recorded six outs on the pitch after a changeup -- weak contact induced by throwing a follow-up pitch down in the zone. This has been what the Twins pitchers -- particularly Gibson, May and Milone -- have succeeded at all year. If the change-up fails to record an out, they have returned to the bottom of the zone with another pitch.

 

Guys like Gibson and Milone have become out generators because they have followed this pattern and it is making their other pitches better. Allen’s guidance to Gibson was to throw his change-up more in circumstances when he would normally throw his slider. While Gibson’s change-up has had great success on its own, it has enhanced his slider’s performance as well, reducing his average against from .210 to .167 while increasing his swinging strikes on the pitch. For Milone, he has kept hitters off his fastball – posting a career-low .248 average against. Similarly, May’s fastball average against has gone from .333 to .287.

 

Weaker contact has resulted in more outs, fewer base-runners and fewer runs.

 

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[awinter]

Great article! Nice work Parker.

[Linus]

While I agree that Allen's role has been a positive factor in the improvement, the biggest factor is Ryan's decision to bring in a stable of competent pitchers to choose from thereby ensuring competition for starting spots and protection against injuries, suspensions, etc.  We've actually had a number of things not go our way in this regard and we still haven't given a start to Cole DeVries.

[TNTwinsFan]

Articles like this is why I live on this site! Parker, thanks for the analysis.

[DJL44]

Hard in, soft away is the mantra. A changeup followed by a fastball down and away works for the same reason anything works down and away - it's the farthest away from the batter's eye so it is harder to make solid contact.

[jimmer]

Torii Hunter.  He has taught the whole team how to win!

[nicksaviking]

How can you tell when Milone throws a changeup?

[jimbo92107]

If I were Glenn Perkins, I would reserve the change up strictly for ninth inning save situations. Imagine hitters gearing up for his 94mph heater, then getting an 86mph change. Good recipe for a back ache, or a bat broken over a knee.

[nicksaviking]

 

If I were Glenn Perkins, I would reserve the change up strictly for ninth inning save situations. Imagine hitters gearing up for his 94mph heater, then getting an 86mph change. Good recipe for a back ache, or a bat broken over a knee.

 

Since Perkins and May are the only two pitchers who can make batters miss with their fastballs, I think I personally wouldn't tinker until thier velocity dips enough for it not to be effective. 

 

Both guys actually have pretty modest velocity so that time could be soon.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Competent outfielders helps as well, but that could be a chicken and egg type argument. Great article Parker!

[Thrylos]

Interesting conclusion.  After 85 games this season the Twins are 46-39.  After 85 games last season the Twins were 38-47.  That is 8 games better than last season.  I think that for these 8 games some credit should be given to a. Molitor, and actually having a team that does not give up b. better roster management c. better OF defense (no Colabellos, Parmelees and the like.)   I'd love to say that Andy caused the Twins 8 games at the midpoint of 2014 (per your conclusion ), but I think that there is more to the story...

Edited July 9, 2015 by Thrylos

[Blake]

I remember a story from years ago when Frankie V. was supposedly screamed at by an opposing hitter because he threw 3 changeups in a row (or something like that) and struck the batter out.

 

[nicksaviking]

Oh, Viola didn't have a problem throwing ten in a row.

 

Speaking of Sweat Music, he was a rumored candidate for the job. A focus on the change up sure looks like it was in the cards.

[joemama]

 

If I were Glenn Perkins, I would reserve the change up strictly for ninth inning save situations. Imagine hitters gearing up for his 94mph heater, then getting an 86mph change. Good recipe for a back ache, or a bat broken over a knee.

If you were Glenn Perkins, ninth inning save situations would be the only time you would pitch! ;-)

 

Great article, Parker. Allen has been the biggest factor in the team's turnaround, in my opinion. Torii's leadership has clearly helped, as has Molitor's. But the offense, in general, has been worse, and yet the team is winning more...because of the improvements shown by Pelfrey, Gibson, May, and Milone. One could argue that improvement should have been expected of all of them, but not to the degree we've seen. I'm once again proud to be a Twins fan.

[puckstopper1]

Thanks Parker.  When I hear change-up I immediately think of Frankie V. and Johan. Their's were DEADLY!

 

I wonder how long it might take for opposing hitters to catch on to this?  Gibson was interviewed from the dugout last Saturday in KC on the FOX TV broadcast and gave a detailed description of how and when he is throwing his change-up.  That plus articles like this one leads me to believe that opposing hitters are/will be aware of this approach.  Does that make a difference? 

[Parker Hageman]

Interesting conclusion.After 85 games this season the Twins are 46-39.After 85 games last season the Twins were 38-47.That is 8 games better than last season.I think that for these 8 games some credit should be given to a. Molitor, and actually having a team that does not give up b. better roster management c. better OF defense (no Colabellos, Parmelees and the like.) I'd love to say that Andy caused the Twins 8 games at the midpoint of 2014 (per your conclusion ), but I think that there is more to the story...

 

 

I think you are interjecting your own conclusion. The post I wrote about asked the question why the Twins pitchers are outperforming their expected results. The conclusion was that the new process of deploying changeups in certain circumstances which is inciting weaker contact. 

 

Now, if the question had been why have the Twins won eight more games this year versus last, then your comment would have been valid... 

 

[Parker Hageman]

That plus articles like this one leads me to believe that opposing hitters are/will be aware of this approach.  Does that make a difference?

 

 

Most organizations have access to similar databases that show the same type of trends plus advanced scouts to pick up on this too. There's a strong chance that they are already well aware. The Rays operated for six years in the same fashion and still had great success. The main key is execution from the pitchers. 

 

[DocBauer]

Great article, but it makes me feel a little stupid. In theory, generally, pitchers always perform better against same sided hitters. Harder to pick up the ball, etc. So why on earth did it ever become vague to only throw a change to an opposite hand hitter?

[Parker Hageman]

So why on earth did it ever become vague to only throw a change to an opposite hand hitter?

 

 

Changeups typically tend to fade on the glove-side of a pitcher or into swings of the same-sided hitters. Missing the spot meant that the pitch would land in the danger zone. Matt Moore, a left-handed pitcher in the Rays organization referenced above in the post, said that his change would fade into the down-and-in zone to lefties -- which is often their power zone. So that's why he avoided throwing them to same-sided opponents. 

 

There were guys that were very adept at throwing their changeups to same-sided hitters -- Viola, Radke and Santana were all great at it -- but over the years the practice seemed to remain with just those who had really great changeups. The Rays were savvy in their development to make sure their prospects all were comfortable throwing the pitch to both sides. 

[d-mac]

 

Most organizations have access to similar databases that show the same type of trends plus advanced scouts to pick up on this too. There's a strong chance that they are already well aware. The Rays operated for six years in the same fashion and still had great success. The main key is execution from the pitchers. 

 

Or that a sound process begets quality results. Sound processes are something sorely lacking on this team the past few years.

[Carneal&Gordon]

Very good article

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Or that a sound process begets quality results. Sound processes are something sorely lacking on this team the past few years.

sound process begets consistent results. If you have sound process but are out of spec, your quality will suck, but do so consistently.

[DJL44]

 

Since Perkins and May are the only two pitchers who can make batters miss with their fastballs, I think I personally wouldn't tinker until thier velocity dips enough for it not to be effective. 

 

Good thing Johan Santana didn't follow that advice. Changing speeds gets batters out.