Article: Are The Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

[spinowner]

 

Can we trade Mauer? Or move Mauer back to catcher & trade Suzuki? Suzuki is seriously awful and the Twins made a huge mistake in giving him that contract.

 

The Twins absolutely should not be buyers. Even if they make the postseason this year they are not good enough to go far so it doesn't make sense to trade for a rental player. The Twins should have the goal of making the playoffs in 2016 and competing for a World Series title in 2017-2020+. In 2017+ is when they may be buyers at the trade deadline.

I like the idea of trading Pelfrey. Plouffe is an interesting idea. I agree that the Twins should look to move him this offseason if they don't trade him now. As long as Sano keeps hitting it makes sense to move Plouffe. I hope that the Twins staff is working daily with Sano on his defense, even though he's only played DH so far in the big leagues.

 

 

Mauer will never, never, never, never, never, ever be a catcher again.  

If you read my post on this topic in the portion of the Hicks thread that got hijacked you'll know what I think.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

The Twins will make a deal - not likely to be a blockbuster.  They will add one or two bullpen arms and I could see a deal for a veteran shortstop - Ramirez or Desmond - for the playoff push.  

 

Neither of these deals would require parting with top prospects.  

[Trov]

This team reminds me a lot of the 2001 team.  The team that had good first half but faded, and was filled with a lot of young talent.  No big moves were made that year, unless you think bringing in Rick Reed was a big move.  That move did, somewhat help them the next year, and they gave up an aging vet that did not fit into the future.  I see a similar possible move here, or a buy for this year and next kind of move.  

 

My main target would be Lucroy.  I think we have the assets to get the deal done without messing up any future.  What do you think the asking price would be?  I think Berrios would be at the start of the talks, if he is in the talks then maybe Arcia(his brother is a top prospect in the Brewers system) and another mid-level prospect, or two lower level prospects.  Maybe Adam Brett Walker be the other mid-level.  I would be willing to make this deal.  Lucroy is signed two more years, at very cheap, and is a top defensive guy, with a decent bat.  His numbers are down because of a injury but would expect a bounce back next year.  Plus, Berrios is not as needed as was before, and the outfield/DH is pretty crowded.

[Tibs]

I'm not very interested in trading prospects for a 29 year old catcher who is having a bad year because of injury and expecting him to bounce back next year, especially Berrios. That just seems like disaster waiting to happen to me.

[Loosey]

 

This team reminds me a lot of the 2001 team.  The team that had good first half but faded, and was filled with a lot of young talent.  No big moves were made that year, unless you think bringing in Rick Reed was a big move.  That move did, somewhat help them the next year, and they gave up an aging vet that did not fit into the future.  I see a similar possible move here, or a buy for this year and next kind of move.  

 

My main target would be Lucroy.  I think we have the assets to get the deal done without messing up any future.  What do you think the asking price would be?  I think Berrios would be at the start of the talks, if he is in the talks then maybe Arcia(his brother is a top prospect in the Brewers system) and another mid-level prospect, or two lower level prospects.  Maybe Adam Brett Walker be the other mid-level.  I would be willing to make this deal.  Lucroy is signed two more years, at very cheap, and is a top defensive guy, with a decent bat.  His numbers are down because of a injury but would expect a bounce back next year.  Plus, Berrios is not as needed as was before, and the outfield/DH is pretty crowded.

No, Nope, No way.  Good Pitching is always needed.  Berrios should be 100% off limits.

[Loosey]

The Twins are in a different position than most of the other playoff contending teams and buyers.  For one, this is completely unexpected, two they are doing it with young guys who some thought wouldn't be ready yet and three they are overperforming.  If the Twins make a trade they need to make a trade that not only helps them make the playoffs this year but also years into the future.  This should be looked at like a bonus year.  They need to realize this the going to be the first of hopefully many playoff contending years and they shouldn't do anything to jeopardize the future. 

[tobi0040]

 

No, Nope, No way.  Good Pitching is always needed.  Berrios should be 100% off limits.

 

I would not give up 7 years of control of Berrios for 2 years of Lucroy, who is not producing this year

[USAFChief]

 

What position are you buying at?

 

How much of the future are you willing to part with?

 

this team could add Hamels at a cost of Sano and it's still among the worst of the playoff teams.  I don't think you significantly alter the timeline because the team has overachieved and is a few games over .500.  Minor moves and plugging holes should be looked at but for the most part the roster is set and the youngsters should be gaining experience.

I've been told the playoffs are a crapshoot.  Get there.

 

To start with, catcher is a need, and will almost surely be a need in the future.  Why wait?  They need better arms in the bullpen.  Why wait?  I actually like Santana's future, but I wouldn't object to a surer thing at SS, and going forward they need better play from SS.  That might be worth a gamble.

 

A starter like Hamels wouldn't be just for 2015.  Lucroy would help now and the near term future, possibly more with an extension.  

 

Fortune favors the bold.  Sitting around waiting for the future doesn't appeal to me, and I don't think it's the smart way to play the MLB game.  YMMV, or course.

[tobi0040]

 

Lucroy would help now and the near term future, possibly more with an extension.  

 

Lucroy would be 31 when he is a free agent.  Do you want to hand him a 4-5 year extension in the $80M range?  Mccann received 5/85 with slightly better numbers.

 

No thanks.

[USAFChief]

 

Lucroy would be 31 when he is a free agent.  Do you want to hand him a 4-5 year extension in the $80M range?  Mccann received 5/85 with slightly better numbers.

 

No thanks.

Yeah, McCann is certainly killing the Yankees.

 

Good players cost money, and they don't often drop off a cliff just because they turn 30 years old.

 

Or, just roll with Suzuki and something lesser I guess.

[tobi0040]

 

Yeah, McCann is certainly killing the Yankees.

 

Good players cost money, and they don't often drop off a cliff just because they turn 30 years old.

 

Or, just roll with Suzuki and something lesser I guess.

 

Well, he had a .692 OPS in his first year of the deal and was paid $17M.  Either way, I would be more worried about $17M commitment to the 33 and 34 year old catcher, or the $15M they may owe the 35 year old if it vests.

 

And I think we are certainly talking extremes if the only options are Lucroy or Suzuki, I am guessing something exists in the .590 OPS to .800 OPS gap between those two.

Edited July 8, 2015 by tobi0040

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would not give up 7 years of control of Berrios for 2 years of Lucroy, who is not producing this year

Yep. I probably wouldn't do it even if Lucroy was posting a 110 OPS+. With the scuffles of Meyer, Berrios becomes a critical piece.

[spinowner]

 

Fortune favors the bold. 

Not necessarily. You've probably heard this saying: There are old pilots. And there are bold pilots. But there are no old bold pilots.

Bill Smith made some bold trades. And that's why he's no longer in charge.

[DJL44]

Mike Pelfrey to the Blue Jays for Dioner Navarro makes sense for both sides. The money is even the same.

[snarkerbarnyard]

I'm fairly certain the Twins could get Stephen Vogt from the Athletics without mortgaging the future. If I were TR, I'd look to make that deal happen, and also for a lockdown reliever. No names jump out at me, but there have to be some. Remember, the hottest team wins the world series, not the best. Otherwise they would've crowned the Nationals in February. I'm confident that if you put the Twins we saw in May in the postseason, they would have won the World Series. The playoffs this year should be our ultimate goal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Lucroy would be 31 when he is a free agent.  Do you want to hand him a 4-5 year extension in the $80M range?  Mccann received 5/85 with slightly better numbers.

 

No thanks.

By "extension" I assume you could extend Lucroy before he reaches free agency.  His contract is very team-friendly now, I wouldn't be surprised if was willing to rip it up and extend it a few years like Phil Hughes did.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yep. I probably wouldn't do it even if Lucroy was posting a 110 OPS+. With the scuffles of Meyer, Berrios becomes a critical piece.

I'd be real tempted if there were fewer question marks around Lucroy, and a 110 OPS+ would be close enough to his previous level to remove a lot of question marks...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Mike Pelfrey to the Blue Jays for Dioner Navarro makes sense for both sides. The money is even the same.

Why does that make sense for the Jays?  With Aaron Sanchez on a rehab assignment, they've got 5+ starters who would be ahead of Pelfrey on their depth chart.  And I doubt anyone is eager to trade for Pelfrey and immediately stick him in the bullpen.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Why does that make sense for the Jays?  With Aaron Sanchez on a rehab assignment, they've got 5+ starters who would be ahead of Pelfrey on their depth chart.  And I doubt anyone is eager to trade for Pelfrey and immediately stick him in the bullpen.

 

The Jays are pretty desperate for starting pitching help.   I'm not saying they do it, but I think it's a pretty reasonable suggestion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm fairly certain the Twins could get Stephen Vogt from the Athletics without mortgaging the future.

Pretty sure Oakland would not trade a catcher currently sporting a 145 OPS+ and controlled for the next 4.5 seasons without asking for an elite prospect (i.e. Berrios or Sano) in return.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd be real tempted if there were fewer question marks around Lucroy, and a 110 OPS+ would be close enough to his previous level to remove a lot of question marks...

I'd give up a lot for Lucroy if he was healthy and hitting, just not Berrios.

[markos]

 

I'd be real tempted if there were fewer question marks around Lucroy, and a 110 OPS+ would be close enough to his previous level to remove a lot of question marks...

Cherry-picking dates a little bit, but...

...since he came back from the DL on June 1st, he has as a 104 wRC+.

...since June 12, he has a 120 wRC+.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Pretty sure Oakland would not trade a catcher currently sporting a 145 OPS+ and controlled for the next 4.5 seasons without asking for an elite prospect (i.e. Berrios or Sano) in return.

 

If there was a reason to trade an elite prospect, that would probably be it.  I'd probably flip Plouffe for an above average catcher if I could this offseason, but I'd think long and hard if Beane offered him up for Berrios and a lesser prospect. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Jays are pretty desperate for starting pitching help.   I'm not saying they do it, but I think it's a pretty reasonable suggestion.

Pretty desperate?

 

Buehrle (115 ERA+)

Hutchinson (3.71 FIP, opening day starter)

Dickey (2014 opening day starter)

Norris (102 ERA+, BA's #18 prospect)

Sanchez (110 ERA+, BA's #27 prospect, on rehab assignment)

Estrada (108 ERA+)

 

Who would Pelfrey replace in that group?

 

No doubt they might like to add a *good* starter, but I doubt Pelfrey would be their target.  He's not even appreciably better than Estrada.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Pretty desperate?

 

Buehrle (115 ERA+)

Hutchinson (3.71 FIP, opening day starter)

Dickey (2014 opening day starter)

Norris (102 ERA+, BA's #18 prospect)

Sanchez (110 ERA+, BA's #27 prospect, on rehab assignment)

Estrada (108 ERA+)

 

Who would Pelfrey replace in that group?

 

No doubt they might like to add a *good* starter, but I doubt Pelfrey would be their target.  He's not even appreciably better than Estrada.

 

You cite opening day starting nods?  Quick.....tell them about Kevin Correia!

 

They're 25th in the league in starter's ERA.  I don't think they'd be opposed to adding arms to help them, now whether Pelfrey is that or not is a different question.  However, Navarro is hardly asking for a huge haul.

[Willihammer]

Anyone else thinking of that game from last August (IIRC) where the Twins scored like 12 runs on past balls when Navarro was catching for the Jays?

 

He has a decent bat (stronger against LHP though). But I don't think he has much for a glove.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cherry-picking dates a little bit, but...

...since he came back from the DL on June 1st, he has as a 104 wRC+.

...since June 12, he has a 120 wRC+.

I've noticed that too.

 

And Lucroy's DL stint was just for a toe injury -- doesn't seem like it should be a career-changer.

 

Berrios straight up for Lucroy is probably a good deal for the Twins, although I am pretty sure the Brewers would want some additional notable prospects -- trading Lucroy would indicate a blow-up rebuild and they'd want some quantity to go with the quality.  And given Lucroy's contract and the FA market for catchers the next few offseasons, they would be in no hurry.

 

But I'm starting to come around to the idea that I couldn't fault it from the Twins side.  Just like I probably couldn't have faulted them for spending big on Russell Martin.  Their internal catching outlook is bleak, and like I said, the FA market doesn't look promising either.  It's going to have to be a trade, and a Lucroy trade now would provide benefits in at least 3 seasons.... very tempting...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You cite opening day starting nods?  Quick.....tell them about Kevin Correia!

 

They're 25th in the league in starter's ERA.  I don't think they'd be opposed to adding arms to help them, now whether Pelfrey is that or not is a different question.  However, Navarro is hardly asking for a huge haul.

Okay, drop the opening day starter notes -- I still don't see them displacing Hutchinson or Dickey for Pelfrey.  (That was my main point -- their two worst performing starters are also two of the most locked-in.)

 

The Jays adding Pelfrey to their starting staff right now would be the equivalent of the Twins adding Frasor to their bullpen.  Even with Pelfrey, they would still probably be looking to add another arm (possibly to replace Pelf).

 

Maybe if it is July 31st or August and nothing else materializes.

[bird]

 

Greatly enhance their playoff chances? No, I don't think that's the right move in 2015.

 

But moving Pelfrey for a bullpen piece or trading a #15-20 prospect for an adequate backup catcher might provide 1-2 more wins and keep the Twins in contention.

 

Given how stacked the Twins farm system is right now, that's not a huge loss and the experience Buxton, Gibson, Sano, Rosario, May, et al will gain by participating in a stretch run (and possible playoff berth) is worth that meager cost.

 

Make a small move and try to stay in contention but don't give up valuable assets that hurt the team's chances in 2016 and beyond.

 

 

Okay. You're probably right. That would make me wrong. Dang it.

[bird]

 

I would argue with another 7-8th inning guy and a lefty specialist we would be neck and neck with the Royals. The hope is we can find at least one of those internally.

 

Outside of the pen I agree, most of the young guys are playing really well as well as getting valuable experience.  Guys that will be part of the Twins resurgence the next few years.  So I don't see the benefit of adding veterans to take their reps.

 

Yeah, you're probably right. Which means I'm not. I hate that.