Article: Are The Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

[bird]

 

 

 

In real life, saving for the future often makes sense. In pro sports, it's folly.

 

 

Dang it Chief. I got this backwards.

[ckrolak]

I'd like to get a leadoff hitter.  Someone like we had in the early 2000's in Shannon Stewart.  I would really like to get someone who can bunt to get on base or move people over.  Also a quality reliever.  Unless we have both of these in the organization somewhere.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'd like to get a leadoff hitter.  Someone like we had in the early 2000's in Shannon Stewart.  I would really like to get someone who can bunt to get on base or move people over.  Also a quality reliever.  Unless we have both of these in the organization somewhere.

 

With Sano in the middle the lineup would balance out tremendously with a leadoff guy that could force Dozier into the middle of the order.

 

But that's also likely where we want Buxton.

[kab21]

 

I've been told the playoffs are a crapshoot.  Get there.

 

To start with, catcher is a need, and will almost surely be a need in the future.  Why wait?  They need better arms in the bullpen.  Why wait?  I actually like Santana's future, but I wouldn't object to a surer thing at SS, and going forward they need better play from SS.  That might be worth a gamble.

 

A starter like Hamels wouldn't be just for 2015.  Lucroy would help now and the near term future, possibly more with an extension.  

 

Fortune favors the bold.  Sitting around waiting for the future doesn't appeal to me, and I don't think it's the smart way to play the MLB game.  YMMV, or course.

I would like to get Hamels and Lucroy but definitely not at the price of Sano or Buxton.  this is where the struggles of Stewart, Meyer and Gordon and the injury to Thorpe (probably others) have hurt the team.  They basically have Sano and Buxton that everyone is going to ask for, Berrios in the next tier (getting top 10 overall rankings at midseason), Polanco and guys that are probably falling out of the top 100. 

 

I don't think the Twins have enough to get Hamels w/o including Sano or Buxton.  I think the Twins would need to include everyone interesting (not named Sano or Buxton) to get Lucroy.  Are those the prices that you are willing to pay?  I think it would be awesome to get Hamels, Lucroy and Tulo but I am not mortgaging the farm system to do it. Especially with a team that according to metrics might not even make the playoffs with the addition of a top player. 

 

The problem is that there aren't many players in the in between category available (very few sellers).

[Thrylos]

 

I've been told the playoffs are a crapshoot.  Get there.

 

To start with, catcher is a need, and will almost surely be a need in the future.  Why wait?  They need better arms in the bullpen.  Why wait?  I actually like Santana's future, but I wouldn't object to a surer thing at SS, and going forward they need better play from SS.  That might be worth a gamble.

 

A starter like Hamels wouldn't be just for 2015.  Lucroy would help now and the near term future, possibly more with an extension.  

 

Fortune favors the bold.  Sitting around waiting for the future doesn't appeal to me, and I don't think it's the smart way to play the MLB game.  YMMV, or course.

 

Well...  I have been really vocal about the Twins trading Santana High during last off-season because we had seen his peak...   Not much value now.  The Twins can upgrade at SS by calling up Polanco. 

 

As far as C goes, they do need a starter this season and there is not much depth in the organization.  They also need arms.  I like that "fortune favors the bold".  I think that Ryan should grab the phone and call the Mets for a trade that will bring Travis d'Arnaud and Jeurys Familia to the Twins and Byron Buxton to the Mets.  Might take a player or 2 either way, but I think that the Twins will be better off in the short and long run this way...

[Linus]

I'm willing to part with good prospects to bring back a young, cost controlled catcher.  Perhaps a bullpen rental arm for cheap but that's it.

 

We can patch SS together with Escobar and I still believe Santana will improve enough on both sides of the ball to be a starter at short for the near future, just starting next year.

 

I would part with Polanco in a trade.  He's eventually going to be a second baseman and I like the one we have better.  Plus, he's got to stop playing the anvil chorus or he's going nowhere - CLANG!

[snarkerbarnyard]

 

Pretty sure Oakland would not trade a catcher currently sporting a 145 OPS+ and controlled for the next 4.5 seasons without asking for an elite prospect (i.e. Berrios or Sano) in return.

A catcher who's also 30 years old and cooled off tremendously in June. These are also the same Athletics who traded Josh Donaldson for basically Marcus Semien. I think Max Kepler and some other near-MLB ready talent could get the job done. But Sano or Berrios? Preposterous.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A catcher who's also 30 years old and cooled off tremendously in June. These are also the same Athletics who traded Josh Donaldson for basically Marcus Semien. I think Max Kepler and some other near-MLB ready talent could get the job done. But Sano or Berrios? Preposterous.

Wrong trade. Donaldson fetched his replacement at 3B in Lawrie, plus prospects. Still probably not a good trade, but also not one the Twins could replicate for a catcher.

 

Off the top of my head, Oakland does not have a history of trading for B prospects without MLB experience as the centerpiece of a trade.

[Linus]

Even thought I am a proponent of win now, how about this scenario.

 

If Sano continues to show he belongs in the bigs, and if he gets a few more starts at third and shows he can be competent in the field.......

 

You trade Plouffe and Pelfrey for the best young catcher you can fetch?

 

If need be, you could include Polanco to really get a good catcher (I believe he is a second baseman and we have one of the best).

 

You would wait until the deadline so you have the most data possible on Sano and to have a few more sellers enter the market.

 

I think that the addition of a better catcher could offset the loss of Plouffe's bat, leaving us no worse off this year and better positioned for the future.

Edited July 9, 2015 by Linus

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Even thought I am a proponent of win now, how about this scenario.

 

If Sano continues to show he belongs in the bigs, and if he gets a few more starts at third and shows he can be competent in the field.......

 

You trade Plouffe and Pelfrey for the best young catcher you can fetch?

 

If need be, you could include Polanco to really get a good catcher (I believe he is a second baseman and we have one of the best).

 

You would wait until the deadline so you have the most data possible on Sano and to have a few more sellers enter the market.

If Plouffe is going to be traded, it's probably going to be in the offseason.

 

1. Long-term assets are easier to trade during the offseason. Instead of picking from 1-2 teams that might have a need and are a contender, you have a pool of 5-6 teams who believe they can be contenders going into the season and they're more likely to have the assets you want and need to make the trade happen. At that point, it's easier to generate a seller's market and leverage offers against one another.

 

2. It'd be a huge gamble to dish off Plouffe during the season when the Twins are in contention. It could easily turn into a 2014 Athletics type of fiasco.

[mikecgrimes]

Considering the twins just need bullpen help assuming sano continues to fill the dh spot you would have to think low level prospects or maybe pinto could do the trick. I wouldn't consider buying a game 1 starter unless the wild card lead grew to at least 4 games but as much as the future should bring great things we have a great shot to make some noise this year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If Plouffe is going to be traded, it's probably going to be in the offseason.

 

1. Long-term assets are easier to trade during the offseason. Instead of picking from 1-2 teams that might have a need and are a contender, you have a pool of 5-6 teams who believe they can be contenders going into the season and they're more likely to have the assets you want and need to make the trade happen. At that point, it's easier to generate a seller's market and leverage offers against one another.

 

2. It'd be a huge gamble to dish off Plouffe during the season when the Twins are in contention. It could easily turn into a 2014 Athletics type of fiasco.

 

yeah, last time they did something like that, they shipped off a kid named Lawton for if I remember right, Rick Reed.  That killed the offense.  I suspect Plouffe is an offseason deal, and I have no problems targeting a young ML ready catcher for him, as I think he's good enough to net it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I suspect Plouffe is an offseason deal, and I have no problems targeting a young ML ready catcher for him, as I think he's good enough to net it. 

I think so as well, though you may need to throw in a B or C prospect depending on the catcher's age and market scarcity.

 

Plouffe is lining up to be an 8 WAR player over the past two seasons and he has two more seasons of team control. That's a really valuable asset to a team that believes it's a contender in the short-term.

[hybridbear]

 

spinowner, on 08 Jul 2015 - 11:11 AM, said:

If you read my post on this topic in the portion of the Hicks thread that got hijacked you'll know what I think.

Do you have a link to it? I'm not sure where it is. Thanks!

[Vance_Christianson]

I say we roll with Suzuki and Fryer for the rest of this year, and Pinto can gather himself in AAA, great, then that gives us 3 catchers. I personally think that adding a SS and an 8th inning guy who can strike batters out is more important.

SS Targets:

Tulo - we'd have to probably part with Buxton, Sano, or Berrios plus 2-3 other players, not sure i'm ready to sell the house yet, but Tulo would look great on our squad!!!! I feel like a Gonsalves or Hu, Polanco, Walker, and something top 30 prospect player.

Castro - He's a buy low guy right now i think, not sure he's much better then Escobar currently

Jed Lawrie - He'll be returning from injury in the next 2-3 weeks i think, and we could buy him low

Just a few ideas...........

assuming we trade for Tulo here's our 2016 Lineup:

1. Buxton - CF
2. Dozier - 2b
3. Tulowitzki - SS
4. Sano - DH/3b
5. Mauer - 1b/DH

6. Plouffe - 3b/1b
7. Rosario - LF
8. Hicks/Arcia - RF

9. Suzuki/Fryer/Pinto - C

I'm drooling right now..........

[kab21]

 

If Plouffe is going to be traded, it's probably going to be in the offseason.

 

1. Long-term assets are easier to trade during the offseason. Instead of picking from 1-2 teams that might have a need and are a contender, you have a pool of 5-6 teams who believe they can be contenders going into the season and they're more likely to have the assets you want and need to make the trade happen. At that point, it's easier to generate a seller's market and leverage offers against one another.

 

2. It'd be a huge gamble to dish off Plouffe during the season when the Twins are in contention. It could easily turn into a 2014 Athletics type of fiasco.

Actually the seller's market is the opposite of what you say.  In the offseason teams will turn to FA to fill holes instead of overpay in a trade.  They will also turn to an unproven prospect and there is hope.  At midseason there will be desperation (and injuries) and no FA's to turn to and that unproven prospect might have fallen on his face.  In addition to that the new Wild Card rules have added so many teams to the buyer's side of the equation that there are very few seller's.

 

But I don't trade Plouffe right now.  It is not as simple as trading an MLB veteran 3B for a MLB ready or veteran C.  It is REALLY hard to match up teams with those kinds of constraints.  The Twins also lack bats right now.  I am not subtracting Plouffe from that lineup.

[tobi0040]

 

Actually the seller's market is the opposite of what you say.  In the offseason teams will turn to FA to fill holes instead of overpay in a trade.  They will also turn to an unproven prospect and there is hope.  At midseason there will be desperation (and injuries) and no FA's to turn to and that unproven prospect might have fallen on his face.  In addition to that the new Wild Card rules have added so many teams to the buyer's side of the equation that there are very few seller's.

 

But I don't trade Plouffe right now.  It is not as simple as trading an MLB veteran 3B for a MLB ready or veteran C.  It is REALLY hard to match up teams with those kinds of constraints.  The Twins also lack bats right now.  I am not subtracting Plouffe from that lineup.

 

I don't disagree with you because I think the desparation is the big thing.  But one advantage of the off-season is that theoretically you have all teams interested in a guy versus just the teams that feel they are in contention AND have a whole at 3B.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You trade Plouffe and Pelfrey for the best young catcher you can fetch?

 

If need be, you could include Polanco to really get a good catcher (I believe he is a second baseman and we have one of the best).

Good theory, but Pelf's value is pretty limited right now -- he's basically an extra reinforcement SP, if you don't already have one like Milone stashed at AAA or May in the bullpen.  He should fetch you *something*, but he's probably not going to contribute much to a deal for immediate help of your choosing.

 

And any team trading good value for Plouffe right now has an immediate need at a specific position.  What is the likelihood that among that subset of teams, there is also a further subset of teams with a good young catcher to spare?  We've discussed the Giants but their infield at the moment is pretty solid, we've discussed the Mets but their starting catcher is actually injured right now, and they may not think they need a 3B for multiple seasons with Wright still under contract.  They could just as easily give up a low-level prospect to rent Aramis Ramirez for the rest of 2015.

 

Not sure if any other trade partners would meet this narrow criteria either.

[DaveW]

 

I think so as well, though you may need to throw in a B or C prospect depending on the catcher's age and market scarcity.

 

Plouffe is lining up to be an 8 WAR player over the past two seasons and he has two more seasons of team control. That's a really valuable asset to a team that believes it's a contender in the short-term.

Reminds me of a time the Twins had another 4 WAR player they decided to trade...his name was Denard Span and that deal has killed the Twins thus far.

 

I wouldn't be in a rush to trade a valuable player like Plouffe unless you get something truly special and can't miss in return. 3 WAR a year catcher would make sense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Reminds me of a time the Twins had another 4 WAR player they decided to trade...his name was Denard Span and that deal has killed the Twins thus far.

 

I wouldn't be in a rush to trade a valuable player like Plouffe unless you get something truly special and can't miss in return. 3 WAR a year catcher would make sense.

Well, the situations are pretty different. The Twins probably won't get a high upside risk like Meyer for Plouffe. I think they'll be targeting something more in the league average range with a high floor, which is fine with me.

 

I'm not in a hurry to trade Plouffe by any means but turning him into a decent catcher makes a lot of sense if it can be done.

[SwainZag]

 

Well...  I have been really vocal about the Twins trading Santana High during last off-season because we had seen his peak...   Not much value now.  The Twins can upgrade at SS by calling up Polanco. 

 

As far as C goes, they do need a starter this season and there is not much depth in the organization.  They also need arms.  I like that "fortune favors the bold".  I think that Ryan should grab the phone and call the Mets for a trade that will bring Travis d'Arnaud and Jeurys Familia to the Twins and Byron Buxton to the Mets.  Might take a player or 2 either way, but I think that the Twins will be better off in the short and long run this way...

 

I like d'Arnaud as a player but he and Familia for Buxton? Serious?  I think that's a trade TR and Twins fan would end up regretting for decades.

[Thrylos]

 

I like d'Arnaud as a player but he and Familia for Buxton? Serious?  I think that's a trade TR and Twins fan would end up regretting for decades.

 

Or Buxton might get injured 50% of the time, and might be a trade that the Twins' fans would applaud...

Right now Buxton is in the path of Rickey Weeks and Carlos Quentin who cannot play a full season without hurting themselves.  And I'd take a top young catcher over a top young centerfielder any time of the day...  Buxton's value is very high right now.

Edited July 9, 2015 by Thrylos

[mikelink45]

We have waited four years to see our prospects and this year we are starting to see why the wait was worth it.  Trade vets - Suzuki, Pelfrey, Millone, Mauer, Plouffe, but not the prospects.  Lets bring more up.  

 

The bullpen is a mess, but can't we start rotating minor-leaguers in there?

 

I agree with the writer who says we cannot compete with the St Louis level of team yet and that is where we want to get.  Going back to one and out should not be our playoff goal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I would be thrilled with a one and out in the playoffs this season. I'll be thrilled if they win 85 games and miss the second WC spot by a game.

[kab21]

 

We have waited four years to see our prospects and this year we are starting to see why the wait was worth it.  Trade vets - Suzuki, Pelfrey, Millone, Mauer, Plouffe, but not the prospects.  Lets bring more up.  

 

The bullpen is a mess, but can't we start rotating minor-leaguers in there?

 

I agree with the writer who says we cannot compete with the St Louis level of team yet and that is where we want to get.  Going back to one and out should not be our playoff goal.

Contending for the WC is an awesome goal for a rebuilding team that has had 4 straight top 5 picks.  That means that they won 15-20 more games than the previous seasons and don't have very much further to go.  But they shouldn't be trading top level prospects to contend for the WC spot.  They need to build the team into a perennial playoff contender. 

 

But other than Plouffe you named guys that have near zero trade value.  We don't need more prospects that probably don't rank in the Twins top 30.  not much of a reason to be sellers.  And trading Plouffe would be a mistake.  He is good and not that young.  Now if someone made an offer of Plouffe for a Jose Berrios level prospect (into the midseason top 10 overall) then I am interested.

[Mike Sixel]

I think, like most teams, they are in a holding pattern right now........

 

I'd not deal any of:

Buxton

Sano

Berrios

Plouffe*

Dozier

Gibson

 

Everyone else, for the right price, I'd consider.

 

*would require a huge overpay by the other side

[drjim]

Add a bullpen arm or two and see if the young bats can carry you.

 

There is plenty of time next year to see if the marginal bullpen arms in the minors have a future.

[tobi0040]

 

I think, like most teams, they are in a holding pattern right now........

 

I'd not deal any of:

Buxton

Sano

Berrios

Plouffe*

Dozier

Gibson

 

Everyone else, for the right price, I'd consider.

 

*would require a huge overpay by the other side

 

I like the asterisk by Plouffe.  You don't give a 3 WAR player away. 

 

I may add Polanco to that list because I view him as the answer at SS for the next 2-3 years and superior to Santana.  That is notoriously a difficult position to find a guy in FA.