Article: Are The Twins Buyers Or Sellers?

[Brandon Warne]

The hottest talk on Twins fans’ lips after the promotions of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano has been whether or not this is a team that should buy or sell at the trade deadline that looms in a mere three and a half weeks. It’s a legitimate question with no easy answer, as the Twins have hung around in a heavily competitive division.And if you buy into the idea that the Tigers could fall back a bit with the loss of Miguel Cabrera, and that the White Sox and Indians have yet to play their best ball of the season — all distinct possibilities — the Central could get even wilder before the season draws to a close.

 

The entire American League is bonkers. Coming into play Monday, the Twins are tied with Baltimore — incidentally, the club’s current opponent — for the fifth and final playoff spot. If that wasn’t enough, 13 of the 15 AL clubs are five or fewer games out of a playoff spot. No AL team is more than 6.5 games out. This hurts buying teams two-fold.

 

First of all, any team that is ‘buying’ so to speak needs a seller. The two teams in the AL that are more than five games out of a playoff spot are Chicago — coming off a spending spree in the offseason — and Oakland, whom Fangraphs’ BaseRuns (best explained here) suggests are playing so far below their ceiling that they should be neck and neck with division-leading Houston. Dealing with Billy Beane in July can be a risky proposition for opposing teams, too. The Twins have done it before — Orlando Cabrera in 2009 — but it takes a certain need for each side to find a match.

 

The NL side is a little different, with just nine of 15 teams within five games of a playoff spot, and four teams — Milwaukee, Colorado, Miami and Philadelphia — at least 10 games back. Each of those teams have premium talent that could be pried away, with the possible exception of Miami, but that also requires a steep price in terms of prospects — of which the Twins have.

 

But the other complicating factor with a team being in the thick of it in a heavily competitive AL race is that even the slightest hiccup can leave you in the dust with a veritable dogpile of teams each gaining ground on someone each night. With that many teams involved, at least a few of them each will win on a given night, making any sort of a slide potentially catastrophic in even the short term.

 

And when you look at this Twins roster, it doesn’t appear to be built terribly well for a playoff run. The same BaseRuns concept that suggests the A’s should be a potential playoff team pegs the Twins as having played like a 35-47 team as opposed to their 43-39 mark. Personally, that doesn’t appear too surprising when considering how leaky the team has been in certain facets of the game at times. The bullpen has the ninth-worst ERA in baseball at 3.88. As a group, they’ve fanned just 6.0 batters per nine — dead last across MLB — and are one of just two teams that are under 7.0 in that respect. The vastly improved rotation is in the top half in ERA, but ranks second to last in K/9 and is only about average in terms of groundball rate.

 

On the offensive side, it’s been about Brian Dozier and a rotating cast of characters that have picked up the slack at one time or another. Dozier is the clear leader on the team with a 128 OPS+ — OPS scaled to where 100 is average — with Joe Mauer, Torii Hunter and Trevor Plouffe the only other regulars above average — and just by a few ticks. Nothing about the Twins offense — with the exception of doubles, triples and strikeouts — are among the top half of AL teams.

 

So you don’t have an offense, starting staff or bullpen that really sticks out. Balanced teams can make the playoffs, too, but it most likely would require some sort of ‘boost.’

 

But where would that boost come from, and where would it go? The Twins don’t really profile as a team that needs help in the outfield. Granted, there’s still no telling what exactly the team can or will get from Buxton or Aaron Hicks, but this isn’t a club in a position to shove one of those two aside for a Marlon Byrd, to throw out a random name who will be available. That’s before also considering Oswaldo Arcia — on a seven-game hitting streak at Rochester where he’s hitting .448/.484/.828 — will also probably rejoin the team at some point, too. Is a run this year so important that you can shove aside players who’ll soon be out of options to take that chance? It hardly seems possible.

 

The rotation already has a bottleneck with Trevor May squeezed out with Ervin Santana’s return, so there isn’t really a good fit there. Similarly, trading legitimate prospects for bullpen help hasn’t exactly worked out well for this club (or any other) in years past either (Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos, etc.).

 

In the infield it would seem only shortstop is open. Jorge Polanco had a really rough first game at Rochester on Saturday, but club sources suggested he was markedly better after some early work on Sunday — his 22nd birthday. If he, Danny Santana or Eduardo Escobar aren’t the future of the position, then a look outside could be merited. That just doesn’t feel like a Twins move either, though. The same can be said for catcher, where Kurt Suzuki has been underwhelming in pretty much every facet of the game. He’s only signed for one more year, so even a starting catcher’s salary could be moved aside if the Twins were to inquire on someone like Jonathan Lucroy. Still again, that’s a splashy move that doesn’t seem to fit the Twins’ usual blueprint, and can also be costly another way.

 

And that way is in terms of trade cost. The Twins could move the likes of Polanco, Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Max Kepler and others. Trading prospects makes sense in a lot of ways, considering the attrition rate of the average prospect versus their trade market value, but at the same time the Twins need to rely on the graduation of some of these prospects emerging to help sustain an extended window as the Buxtons and Sanos mature, and need reinforcements to go alongside them.

 

So does trading from your depth in the minor leagues actually narrow your contention window? Maybe not, considering the team will have Sano and Buxton ostensibly for at least six years — all of which should be pretty good years for the club, barring some sort of disaster — but it’s worth wondering if making a run at the beginning of their careers — and the end of Mauer’s for instance — is worth pushing all the chips in the middle for. And is that season now? Is the division and league as vulnerable as it’ll get in the short- or long-term? Maybe that is the case, considering there’s no dominating team right now. The Red Sox and Yankees are a bit more down than they’ve been in recent years, and some of the teams who were supposed to take giant steps forward — the Clevelands and Seattles of the world — have failed to step up.

 

There’s no easy answer for how the Twins should approach this deadline, but there’s also a fairly good chance that in the next 25 or so days, the team will provide its own answer. If they’re in the thick of it in that last week in July, it’s going to be an interesting deadline for the first time in a long time.

 

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[Highabove]

La velle reports in the Trib. that the Twins will be looking for Bullpen help.

[jimbo92107]

I would look for a shrubbery, but nothing too expensive. No, this is not the year for a surprise playoff run and a shock-the-world Series victory. This team isn't solid enough.

 

Remember who will be waiting in the Series. The Dodgers or the Cardinals. The Twins are not in that class of team, not yet. Two years from now, maybe...

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be more interested in long term help vs. short term help.  The pen should be addressable cheaply, and I have no problems trading off a marginal prospect for a quasi decent reliever.  Who I'd trade:

 

Pelfrey - think his time might be up here.  He will probably get something from a team that needs pitching.  Won't likely net much, but if I could ship him off for a decent reliever with a year or two left on his contract, I would.

 

Plouffe - a wildcard here.  I'd probably wait closer to the deadline to see if Sano is still hitting, but if he is, I'd shop Plouffe for a long term catching fixture.  If I cannot get it, I don't trade him.  If I can, then Arcia gets called up to DH and Sano moves to 3rd.

[Blackjack]

 

I'd be more interested in long term help vs. short term help.  The pen should be addressable cheaply, and I have no problems trading off a marginal prospect for a quasi decent reliever.  Who I'd trade:

 

Pelfrey - think his time might be up here.  He will probably get something from a team that needs pitching.  Won't likely net much, but if I could ship him off for a decent reliever with a year or two left on his contract, I would.

 

Plouffe - a wildcard here.  I'd probably wait closer to the deadline to see if Sano is still hitting, but if he is, I'd shop Plouffe for a long term catching fixture.  If I cannot get it, I don't trade him.  If I can, then Arcia gets called up to DH and Sano moves to 3rd.

 

I'm wondering if May was moved to the bullpen so they could showcase Pelfrey from now until the trade deadline, a couple of good starts and teams looking for another starter might bite.

 

I agree on Plouffe too, but only if a team overpays. An off season trade would maximize his value, get teams in a bidding war for him. Plus it gives you more time to see if Sano is ready and if Arcia is out of his funk.

 

As far as if the Twins are buyers or sellers, I say its too soon, give it a couple more weeks until the end of July, then this discussion is relevant.

[RedBull34]

My general opinion is buyer.  But not to the point of trading for Tulo or anything.

[tobi0040]

I think we trade Pelfrey and add a reliever, most likely a lefty.

 

No way we do any big trades for a rental. Where is the guy going to play?   I think we continue the trend and bring up Polanco soon for SS and we heart Suzuki too much to do anything there.

[spinowner]

My general opinion is neither buyers or sellers. This is the time of year when buyers overpay and sellers know it. That means what the Twins would need to buy for this year won't be worth the cost, and Pelfrey is the only player I'd consider selling that other teams might consider buying. I agree that moving Plouffe can wait unless we get an offer from a significantly overpaying buyer.

[lukeduke1980]

It didn't seem like the Tigers gave up a ton for David Price last year - see what's available for the right, um, price

[Brock Beauchamp]

My first goal would be a backup catcher that could spell Suzuki more than once a week. Bullpen help would be nice but I think that can solved internally.

 

And a lot rides on how Santana looks over his next 2-3 starts. If Pelfrey is expendable in late July, consider moving him.

[bird]

I'd always be a seller at the deadline to any buyer dumb and desperate enough to overpay for my surplus. In 2015, our only true surpluses are #4-5-6 starters and a collection of rather mediocre, interchangeable MLB and AAA relievers. Trouble is, none of these players is going to appeal to a club looking for that one piece to get them another couple of wins. But I'd sure try to sell someone on Pelfrey as that guy.

 

It just isn't practical to think we can buy a player or two that will greatly enhance our playoff chances, IMO. Even a decent backup catcher or 7th inning guy better than Pressly won't do enough. If we're going to win the wild card, it'll be on the backs of the players we have, and even then, we're likely to be one and done in the playoffs when we're relying on so many young guys to carry the load.

 

Dangle 'em all, but reel 'em back in unless the offer is stupid good.

Edited July 8, 2015 by birdwatcher

[tobi0040]

 

I'd always be a seller at the deadline to any buyer dumb and desperate enough to overpay for my surplus. In 2015, our only true surpluses are #4-5-6 starters and a collection of rather mediocre, interchangeable MLB and AAA relievers. Trouble is, none of these players is going to appeal to a club looking for that one piece to get them another couple of wins. But I'd sure try to sell someone on Pelfrey as that guy.

 

It just isn't practical to think we can buy a player or two that will greatly enhance our playoff chances, IMO. Even a decent backup catcher or 7th inning guy better than Pressly won't do enough. If we're going to win the wild card, it'll be on the backs of the players we have, and even then, we're likely to be one and done in the playoffs when we're relying on so many young guys to carry the load.

 

Dangle 'em all, but reel 'em back in unless the offer is stupid good.

 

 

I would argue with another 7-8th inning guy and a lefty specialist we would be neck and neck with the Royals. The hope is we can find at least one of those internally.

 

Outside of the pen I agree, most of the young guys are playing really well as well as getting valuable experience.  Guys that will be part of the Twins resurgence the next few years.  So I don't see the benefit of adding veterans to take their reps.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

I'm sure others have addressed/complained about this before, but it would be great if when a post gets bumped from the "recent blogs" section to the front page, the comments come with it.  It is just really annoying to have your contribution to the discussion seemingly arbitrarily left behind. I'm not sure what the technical and/or logistical obstacles to that would be, but I would think everyone would agree that it is preferable.

 

Thanks, and nice article Brandon.

[hybridbear]

Can we trade Mauer? Or move Mauer back to catcher & trade Suzuki? Suzuki is seriously awful and the Twins made a huge mistake in giving him that contract.

 

The Twins absolutely should not be buyers. Even if they make the postseason this year they are not good enough to go far so it doesn't make sense to trade for a rental player. The Twins should have the goal of making the playoffs in 2016 and competing for a World Series title in 2017-2020+. In 2017+ is when they may be buyers at the trade deadline.

diehardtwinsfan, on 08 Jul 2015 - 06:48 AM, said:

Pelfrey - think his time might be up here.  He will probably get something from a team that needs pitching.  Won't likely net much, but if I could ship him off for a decent reliever with a year or two left on his contract, I would.

 

Plouffe - a wildcard here.  I'd probably wait closer to the deadline to see if Sano is still hitting, but if he is, I'd shop Plouffe for a long term catching fixture.  If I cannot get it, I don't trade him.  If I can, then Arcia gets called up to DH and Sano moves to 3rd.

I like the idea of trading Pelfrey. Plouffe is an interesting idea. I agree that the Twins should look to move him this offseason if they don't trade him now. As long as Sano keeps hitting it makes sense to move Plouffe. I hope that the Twins staff is working daily with Sano on his defense, even though he's only played DH so far in the big leagues.

[Thrylos]

I don't think that being buyers will prevent them from being sellers.   I do think that since they are competing this season, they should go out there and try to get players who will close holes for them, esp. in the catcher and bullpen positions.  Should they "sell" Tommy Milone (and bring back May to the rotation) in a package for a starting Catcher?  Sure they should do.   They should sell, but they should sell high and bring back players who will make them compete.

 

And yes they need bullpen help, but they better go out and get some above average or better pitchers and not burned out pitchers like the latest one they picked from the heap...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It just isn't practical to think we can buy a player or two that will greatly enhance our playoff chances, IMO. Even a decent backup catcher or 7th inning guy better than Pressly won't do enough. If we're going to win the wild card, it'll be on the backs of the players we have, and even then, we're likely to be one and done in the playoffs when we're relying on so many young guys to carry the load.

 

Dangle 'em all, but reel 'em back in unless the offer is stupid good.

Greatly enhance their playoff chances? No, I don't think that's the right move in 2015.

 

But moving Pelfrey for a bullpen piece or trading a #15-20 prospect for an adequate backup catcher might provide 1-2 more wins and keep the Twins in contention.

 

Given how stacked the Twins farm system is right now, that's not a huge loss and the experience Buxton, Gibson, Sano, Rosario, May, et al will gain by participating in a stretch run (and possible playoff berth) is worth that meager cost.

 

Make a small move and try to stay in contention but don't give up valuable assets that hurt the team's chances in 2016 and beyond.

[Seth Stohs]

So, from what I'm reading, the Twins have four options:

 

1.) Buyer

2.) Seller

3.) Both

4.) Neither

 

And honestly, I'm fine with any of those.

 

I wouldn't trade prospects. This has been a long road to developing these types of prospects that are now emerging. We've seen the great teams, with sustained success, have a core of home grown talent. 

 

That said, if there are deals that make sense for the short term and the long term, I'm all for it. I have no problem with them "going for it" in 2015 and making a couple of minor moves in an attempt to get a Wild Card spot (or even surpass KC), but I also want to make sure that the youth is still playing. 

[kab21]

I like #3 but I don't think they have needs to be filled (let the youngsters play) or valuable pieces to trade. 

 

They could sell an extra starter like Pelfrey or Milone but Milone was traded last year for Sam Fuld and his up and down season since then hasn't increased his trade value.  Pelfrey's trade value is lower.  The rest of the starters should stay put.

 

They should be looking for a solid 7th/8th inning RP'er and use somebody in the 20-30th prospect range to do it.  The could make a Sal Butera-esque trade also but this is such a small transaction that it doesn't really count.

[Dantes929]

 

 

 

The Twins absolutely should not be buyers. Even if they make the postseason this year they are not good enough to go far so it doesn't make sense to trade for a rental player. The Twins should have the goal of making the playoffs in 2016 and competing for a World Series title in 2017-2020+. In 2017+ is when they may be buyers at the trade  .

The Royals weren't good enough to go far last year either and yet they did.    Nothing about what I have seen this year tells me the Twins cannot compete if they make the playoffs.    I would be just fine with throwing Gibson, Hughes and Santana out there.  That doesn't mean I think we should be buyers to get there.    Sano appears to be working out just fine and Hicks has shown a lot of life recently.  May did a good job out of the pen the other day and could be the short term answer if Pelfrey finds his groove again.    I agree this team has outperformed their talent but their talent appears to be getting better.  

Lack of strikeouts by our staff does not concern me.   Double plays are tough to achieve with strikeouts. 

[USAFChief]

The goal is to get to the postseason.

 

Putting off helping a team that is in contention for the postseason, on the hope (and that's all it is) that you MIGHT be a postseason contender at some point in the future, makes no sense to me.

 

In real life, saving for the future often makes sense. In pro sports, it's folly.

[tobi0040]

 

 

 

 

 

The Royals weren't good enough to go far last year either and yet they did.    Nothing about what I have seen this year tells me the Twins cannot compete if they make the playoffs.    I would be just fine with throwing Gibson, Hughes and Santana out there.  That doesn't mean I think we should be buyers to get there.    Sano appears to be working out just fine and Hicks has shown a lot of life recently.  May did a good job out of the pen the other day and could be the short term answer if Pelfrey finds his groove again.    I agree this team has outperformed their talent but their talent appears to be getting better.  

Lack of strikeouts by our staff does not concern me.   Double plays are tough to achieve with strikeouts. 

 

The best thing the Twins have going for them is really talented, controllable young players. Save Buxton, all of the guys up this year have helped the Twins become contenders.  So I am not moving guys like Gibson, May, Sano, Rosario, etc. 

 

I would add a late inning guy and a lefty specialist.  I am confident we can get at least the lefty from within. 

[dougkoebernick]

 

Can we trade Mauer? Or move Mauer back to catcher & trade Suzuki? 

Mauer will never, never, never, never, never, ever be a catcher again.  

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The Twins should be "wait and see"-ers.

 

no reason to be sellers - They are playing well enough this year that they will likely stay in contention beyond the deadline.

 

They could be buyers - though I think a lot of the problems can be fixed by calling up minor leaguers.

 

They don't have a ready solution at catcher, so that's one area I think they would need to find outside the org. help.

 

The bullpen might also need a little short term boost, as the recently drafted guys are still not quite there yet.

 

[Matt Kummer]

 

"The Royals weren't good enough to go far last year either and yet they did.    Nothing about what I have seen this year tells me the Twins cannot compete if they make the playoffs.    I would be just fine with throwing Gibson, Hughes and Santana out there."

 

Remember, Santana is not eligible for the playoffs. So, if the Twins get in, you're looking at a starting rotation of Hughes, Gibson and 2 of Pelfrey/Milone/May. I doubt they add yet another starter for a playoff run, so that's a rotation they have to roll with. Unless Berrios dominates at AAA in the next 6 weeks, I don't see it changing.

 

I'm fine with the Twins making a move to get some bullpen help for a mid-level prospect, and seeing what happens. If the right deal is there to get a catching option that can split time with Suzuki, that's fine too. Otherwise, this isn't the year to go all in.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Similarly, trading legitimate prospects for bullpen help hasn’t exactly worked out well for this club (or any other) in years past either (Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos, etc.).

I am not sure what counts as "legitimate prospects" but it is quite possible to trade for bullpen help without pulling a Ramos-for-Capps.  Jon Rauch was an excellent bullpen acquisition, as was Brian Fuentes.  Even Todd Jones back in 2001 wasn't bad, although he was too little, too late.

[nicksaviking]

Pelfrey has been awful in four of his last five starts.  No team is going to be fooled by two months of decent production that was never supported by his peripheral stats and ignore the 2013-14 seasons and his last month.

 

If Pelfrey stinks it up again on Thursday, not only isn't he a trade candidate, he is very much a DFA candidate.

[kab21]

 

The goal is to get to the postseason.

Putting off helping a team that is in contention for the postseason, on the hope (and that's all it is) that you MIGHT be a postseason contender at some point in the future, makes no sense to me.

In real life, saving for the future often makes sense. In pro sports, it's folly.

 

What position are you buying at?

 

How much of the future are you willing to part with?

 

this team could add Hamels at a cost of Sano and it's still among the worst of the playoff teams.  I don't think you significantly alter the timeline because the team has overachieved and is a few games over .500.  Minor moves and plugging holes should be looked at but for the most part the roster is set and the youngsters should be gaining experience.

[Monkeypaws]

The last thing the Twins should do is make another Capps for Ramos kind of deal. 

 

The Twins are sitting on a great farm system, but those top prospects need to graduate to the majors and get established.

 

If and when that happens, and you still have a surplus of prospects, then you make trades.

 

edit-I see Capps for Ramos has been beaten into the ground already. Not surprised. 

 

 

Edited July 8, 2015 by Monkeypaws

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It didn't seem like the Tigers gave up a ton for David Price last year - see what's available for the right, um, price

Well, they did give up their starting CF (Austin Jackson, who has since struggled), plus 4.5 years of perhaps a lefty Trevor May type (Drew Smyly), plus an 18 year old, top 100 SS prospect (Willy Adames).

 

Although they did get 1.5 years of David Price in return, including the ability to trade him again or get a compensation draft pick.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The Capps mistake had to do with both buyer and seller overstating the value of Capps.

 

A guy like Neal Cotts from the Brewers could have a similar impact (fill a bullpen need), but cost significantly less to acquire.

 

I don't think there's any desire for the Twins to trade away anyone in their top 10 prospects for a short-term fix.