Article: Molitor Hints At Six-Man Rotation

[Guest]

I'd say the Twins have 5 pitchers who are pretty much equal. One would hope that Santana comes out a notch or two above what we've seen from the other 5. At least he's being compensated as though he's better than the others. If there's one argument against a 6-man rotation that I'd buy it's that it means we see Santana on the mound less frequently.

 

The 5 days of rest vs the 4 they're used to is a non-issue to me. With off days sprinkled in, every starter gets 5 days of rest just about as often as they do 4 days, already. Taking this approach for 2-3 weeks while they see what they have in Santana and give the other guys a chance to distance themselves from the pack and sort things out is not a big deal.

 

The first guy to have a clunker or two is going to end up getting skipped and assigned a new role, either in the Twins bullpen or in Rochester. Just doesn't seem like it's worth working up much concern for now.

[ckrolak]

All I know is that Ervin needs to get a haircut.  That is not a good look with a baseball cap!

[Mike Sixel]

So, after 3 months, we are sure they are all the same, and will decide after 1-2 more starts what to do, based on those 1-2 more starts? Hmmmmm.

[Oxtung]

 

'Second, a pitcher's career prior to the majors did not always follow the four-day rest schedule. For instance, Berrios has had anywhere from five-to-seven days between some of his outings this year.'

 

What are Pelfrey, Santana, and Milone used to? I said many not all and when in the majors, the routine is every five days, doesn't matter what they may have done in the minors at some point.

.

There is no set routine in the majors because the schedule isn't equally distributed with off days. Milone has pitched on 5 days rest just as often as 4 this season and Pelfrey more often on 5 than 4. The same principle holds in prior seasons too.

[Guest]

 

So, after 3 months, we are sure they are all the same, and will decide after 1-2 more starts what to do, based on those 1-2 more starts? Hmmmmm.

Yeah, I know. Guess it's just a matter of riding the hot hand(s). And, yeah, being July and considering you might be looking to get max value for one of these guys in a trade, I'm not sure demoting them to the pen or to Rochester is the most effective way to get max value. If you have to use a 6-man for a bit in July to get something more than a few BP balls for one of these guys in a trade, it's not the end of the world to do it for a little while. It's not ideal, but as I said, I just can't get too worked up over it, either way.

Edited July 2, 2015 by SD Buhr

[SwainZag]

 

So, after 3 months, we are sure they are all the same, and will decide after 1-2 more starts what to do, based on those 1-2 more starts? Hmmmmm.

 

I don't think anyone said they were the same.  There are 11 games til the break.  May pitched yesterday.  Which means if they went to a 6-man rotation until the break, everyone would get 2 starts.  I really don't think it's going to throw anyone off.  Go to the break, make a decision to send someone down, trade someone, send someone to the pen, etc.  6 starters, 7 man pen. Go with it.

[tobi0040]

 

I don't think anyone said they were the same.  There are 11 games til the break.  May pitched yesterday.  Which means if they went to a 6-man rotation until the break, everyone would get 2 starts.  I really don't think it's going to throw anyone off.  Go to the break, make a decision to send someone down, trade someone, send someone to the pen, etc.  6 starters, 7 man pen. Go with it.

 

Not to mention, if everyone stays healthy in the next 1-2 weeks we will be trading someone.  Nobody is taking Ervin or Nolasco.  It would be silly to trade Gibson or May given their potential, youth, and team control.  Hughes isn't going anywhere.  So you have Pelfrey or Milone.  Nothing would hurt their trade value more than demoting them to the pen or AAA while they are on the trade block.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, I know. Guess it's just a matter of riding the hot hand(s). And, yeah, being July and considering you might be looking to get max value for one of these guys in a trade, I'm not sure demoting them to the pen or to Rochester is the most effective way to get max value. If you have to use a 6-man for a bit in July to get something more than a few BP balls for one of these guys in a trade, it's not the end of the world to do it for a little while. It's not ideal, but as I said, I just can't get too worked up over it, either way.

 

I can live with that, assuming they eventually act.

[Dman]

 

Seems pretty sarcastic and I don't know why what I've written warrants that, but whatever.

 

Do you think the 5 we have right now are all performing at the same exactly level? 

 

At present, I personally believe based on what I've seen along with historical pitching and stats I value, I'd say the four guys who should remain in the rotation when Santana comes back and joins it are:

 

May, 

Gibson

Hughes

Pelfrey

 

Those four plus Santana would be my five guys unless a trade can be worked.

 

But that doesn't matter.  Point is, they are not all the same.  If there is at least one guy better than the others, he will get less starts than he would in a five man rotation in order to have an inferior pitcher start. This isn't theory.  Whether or not it will hurt the production of the rotation overall is the debatable part. 

 

Then there's the possible addition to the number of pitchers overall we have and a smaller bench.

 

While I get the absolute math about best pitchers pitching as much as possible I don't have your same level of certainty of who "the best" pitchers would be at this point.  ERA, FIP, WHIP change from game to game.  All the pitchers above could have been slated as our number one pitcher at some point this season and at this point baring peripheral stats they all look pretty much the same to me.  That being the case a 6 man rotation hardly seems like a major problem going forward IMO especially if they only use it to the break.  

 

I agree adding another rotation arm guarantee's a smaller bench and less flexibility that way but it doesn't seem like Molitor uses his bench all that much as it is.

 

Also isn't baseball evolving from defensive shifting, to leveraging good bullpens, to possibly 6 man rotations in the future?  Just because that is the way they always did it before doesn't mean it has to be that way forever.  Strategies change.  As pointed out by the article there are good things about a 6 man rotation as well.  As teams moved on from 4 man rotations maybe 6 is next regardless of less starts by the best pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

What evidence, other than the Mets who have almost all young arms that have never pitched many innings, do we see of this evolution to 6 man rotations?

[tobi0040]

 

What evidence, other than the Mets who have almost all young arms that have never pitched many innings, do we see of this evolution to 6 man rotations?

 

Personally, I bet it goes there.  Too many owners shelling out contracts to pitchings that get hurt. 

[Dman]

 

What evidence, other than the Mets who have almost all young arms that have never pitched many innings, do we see of this evolution to 6 man rotations?

 

I have very little evidence but it seems like there has been speculation about six man rotations for a while now.  I guess i just wouldn't be surprised if it started to happen more.  Despite giving up double digit starts of a teams ace pitcher all baseball teams moved from a four man rotation to five. So there is more to the debate than just using your best pitcher as much as possible.  Health is important as well.

 

Maybe teams would use a six man for a couple of turns every couple of months to give the arms a break.  Who knows how or why a team might implement a 6 man.  Maybe it never will happen on a regular basis.  All I am saying is that it could be a good strategy and part of baseballs future given all the arm problems teams seem to have.  Time will tell.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Dman

[jimmer]

 

Personally, I bet it goes there.  Too many owners shelling out contracts to pitchings that get hurt. 

And if baseball does go that route, and it may, then rosters will have to be expanded past 25. At some point they are just going to have to expand rosters. IMO, it should have already happened.

 

Before we had 4 man rotations and smaller bullpens, and a 25 man roster.  Now we have 5 man rotations and larger bullpens...and, still, a 25 man roster.

Edited July 2, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

I don't think anyone said they were the same.  

Look at post #31, first sentence. :-)

 

And there are others that are saying they are pretty much all the same.

Edited July 2, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

While I get the absolute math about best pitchers pitching as much as possible I don't have your same level of certainty of who "the best" pitchers would be at this point.  

I was clear to say it was my opinion on who the top were, not that my list was the best 4 for a fact.Then I said it doesn't matter, we just have to agree that we do have pitchers that are better than others in our rotation.  And when we agree on that, then we know that if we got to a six man rotation....well, you know.

Edited July 2, 2015 by jimmer

[drjim]

I wonder if a team would get creative with a 6 man rotation to have a start and then have that same starter available for 1-2 innings on day 4, which would usually be a throw day. Could potentially extract additional value from the arms and still give them plenty of rest.

[Dman]

 

I was clear to say it was my opinion on who the top were, not that my list was the best 4 for a fact.Then I said it doesn't matter, we just have to agree that we do have pitchers that are better than others in our rotation.  And when we agree on that, then we know that if we got to a six man rotation....well, you know.

 

My apologies didn't mean to put words in your mouth.  You just got me thinking and that is what came out.

[jimmer]

A six man rotation, if done over a 162 games season, has a pitcher get 27 starts.  I know, as a manager, I wouldn't want to give 5-7 starts of King Felix to Joe Blow.  Over the course of 5 seasons, that's roughly a years worth of starts less.  

[jimmer]

 

My apologies didn't mean to put words in your mouth.  You just got me thinking and that is what came out.

No need to apologize.  We're just chatting and you certainly we're rude ;-)

[Dman]

 

I wonder if a team would get creative with a 6 man rotation to have a start and then have that same starter available for 1-2 innings on day 4, which would usually be a throw day. Could potentially extract additional value from the arms and still give them plenty of rest.

 

Yeah that is an interesting thought and would potentially help with 25 man.  I wonder if teams will get creative like that.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Dman

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Not sure why this is such a controversial notion.  There was a point when teams used a four man rotation and gradually the league transitioned to a five-man.   If you have the depth and a similar level of effectiveness across your rotation, it does make some degree of sense to consider six.  

 

At this point, the Twins don't have a true "ace", but do have six arms that are performing at a relatively similar level.   I think trying a six man for awhile, until someone either gets hurt or regresses, makes some sense.

 

I don't view it as controversial, but more of just punting on a decision. Two weeks isn't a big deal. Either May or Pelfrey should go to the pen though. The pen needs their help.

 

The Twins are more than welcome to become innovators but I dont think the rest of the league will be following them anytime soon. Over a season it will cost a starting pitcher a half dozen starts. Unless what drjim said above and a team can use a guy in relief on his throw day.

[Dman]

 

A six man rotation, if done over a 162 games season, has a pitcher get 27 starts.  I know, as a manager, I wouldn't want to give 5-7 starts of King Felix to Joe Blow.  Over the course of 5 seasons, that's roughly a years worth of starts less.  

 

Yeah when you throw an ace in there a 6 man doesn't look as good.  Lot's of things have to come into play to make it work.  Maybe it would need to be more sporadic and not set in stone.  

 

If you have an ace and 5 really good pitchers maybe it still makes sense.  It hurts most if the sixth pitcher isn't that good as you pitch him instead of your better pitchers.  Getting to six is tough and maybe there just isn't enough value there but it sure seems like there is more debate about it than ever before.

Edited July 2, 2015 by Dman

[Boom Boom]

They haven't been able to pare the roster down to seven relievers, but they might send out a reliever to add an extra starter? I don't get it.

 

I know that the next starter could come out of the bullpen in an emergency, but that would throw everybody else off schedule.

 

This six-man rotation idea just sounds like an easy way out of making a decision. I would make a tough choice, rip the band-aid off, and hurt someone's sensitive feelings.

[jimmer]

 

I know that the next starter could come out of the bullpen in an emergency, but that would throw everybody else off schedule.

 

Even if a starter could come in and pitch an inning or two in relief during his normal throwing day, there's a huge difference between throwing bullpen not in game as part of a routine and throwing in relief during an actual game. Pitchers don't throw all out during the regular throwing days they have nor do they face batters.  it's just about the throwing.

[jun]

May should be a long reliever for a close game or 7th/8th inning man. Boyer has failed to perform lately and he could not strike people out at will, May has a power arm, he would be a lot more effective than any of the guys there except Perkins. I believe this would not be a long term move if May could perform well. 

Pelfrey and Milone are not strikeout pitchers. Contact pitchers might struggle especially when there are some inherited runners on.

Since bullpen has been struggling as a group, it might be a better idea to insert a power pitcher there FOR THE TEAM!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Personally, I bet it goes there.  Too many owners shelling out contracts to pitchings that get hurt. 

 

Escept there is no evidence it helps......

[jimmer]

 

Escept there is no evidence it helps......

exactly, and then there's the added benefit of paying them more to pitch less :-)

[jun]

In order to be an effective starter in the major league, May really needs to pitch deep in the game and keeps pitch count low.

[Dantes929]

 

I was clear to say it was my opinion on who the top were, not that my list was the best 4 for a fact.Then I said it doesn't matter, we just have to agree that we do have pitchers that are better than others in our rotation.  And when we agree on that, then we know that if we got to a six man rotation....well, you know.

First of all, it seems to me that :Gibson in particular doesn't pitch quite as well when rested.    The gain in velocity is more than offset by the lack of movement.    I don't know about the rest.    I absolutely agree with the logic that you should throw your 5 best out there and move the other to the pen or minors but I have a few problems with the reality.     Its not even certain that Santana is currently among the top 5 with his age, PED's and layoff.   In your list you delete Milone from the rotation.   I know you don't value ERA much but it is a fact that he has the lowest career ERA of the whole group.   You say that results from favorable conditions in Oakland but then there is the fact that he has the lowest ERA on the team this season to go along with lights out pitching in the minors.   You say small sample size but you  to at least admit that there is the possibility that he is currently the best pitcher right now and that Santana is the worst.   By going with your 5 man rotation you have now replaced your best of the 6 with the worst of the 6.    it absolutely matters who the top 5 are for your basic premise to work out favorably.   6 man rotation in that instance trumps the 5 man.   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Wouldn't this guarantee a 13 man pitching staff? Don't like that.

or 14