Article: Molitor Hints At Six-Man Rotation

[Parker Hageman]

Ervin Santana’s return to the Minnesota Twins is imminent and this presents an interesting personnel decision for the team. On Twins Radio prior to Wednesday’s game against the Red, manager Paul Molitor did not offer any hints as to the direction the Twins wants to go.

 

“I think everyone is excited that we are going to be adding a pitcher of Ervin’s quality to our staff,” Molitor told Cory Provus on the pregame show. “I haven’t talked to the AAA staff, I just saw the numbers and like everyone else, we’re really happy to see his last start there was good in terms of command and efficiency and results. So we’re gonna get through today and probably the next 24 or 48 hours make an announcement when he’s gonna pitch for us.”

 

As it lays out, the open date in the rotation is Sunday against the Royals in Kansas City but Molitor was mum regarding whether or not that would be Santana’s start.Santana’s post-suspension tune-up with Rochester was impressive. Over the course of three starts, he worked 20.2 innings while allowing 17 hits (.227 batting average) and just four runs resulting in a 1.74 ERA. In his final two outings, both against the Red Sox’s Pawtucket affiliate, Santana faced several Major League caliber bats including Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig. The velocity was reportedly down to the late-80s/low-90s but he mixed in a slider and change to keep hitters off-balanced.

 

With the excitement building within the team about Santana’s impending arrival, Provus asked the question of how the rotation will shape up once Santana returns and if the six-man rotation is on the table.

 

“It’s one of the options we are looking at,” Molitor said regarding the shift to six in the rotation, “We have options but one of them would be to go ahead and insert Ervin there and give everybody an extra day and use all the starters we have until we get to that last game. Obviously the other route would be to take someone out and try to piece it together from there because of the rest that we will be able to have. Once we decide when where we are going to slot those guys in, we will trust it and go with it.”

 

While Molitor seems open to the six-man idea, general manager Terry Ryan seems less receptive and is leaning towards replacing a current member of the rotation.

 

“Things happen, we all know that,” Ryan told the Star Tribune. “Paul is very adept with connecting with players, I can tell you that. Most players will be very receptive. If I went to them, it might be a different story. It will be a tough decision for whoever winds up getting squeezed.”

 

The New York Mets recently switched to the six-man rotation and the St. Louis Cardinals toyed with the idea this spring. Both team’s motivation was predicated on limiting innings to young arms as well as reducing the workload on rebuild arms like Matt Harvey. The Twins do not have the same scenario when it comes to rationing innings like the two NL teams did. Minnesota’s motivation would be to not remove any of the current starters who are performing serviceably across the board. The obvious reasoning is that it allows the Twins to showcase a pitcher as a trade candidate between now and the July 31 deadline but the other factors could be keeping their pitchers healthy and improving their performance.

 

In 2014, Enos Sarris pointed out that the Japanese trend of using six-man rotations might be responsible for why Japan’s pitchers tend to have fewer instances with Tommy John surgery compared to their Major League counterparts. The data blog FiveThirtyEight.com’s Rob Arthur dug further into the hypothesis and found that pitchers who have four days of rest – like the standard five-man rotation have – will have a reported injury risk of one percent over the next two weeks after pitching. However, a shift to a full five days of rest – enjoyed by those in a six-man rotation – have a 0.8 percent chance of injury, a 20 percent decrease in comparison to the four-days of rest. The caveat, Arthur found, was that while the six-man prevented injuries to some degree, the nature of the injuries were comparable to those of the five-man. In short, while longer rest showed the ability to reduce the frequency of injuries, it did not reduce the risk for suffering major injuries such as UCL tears.

 

Still, for a team over a 162-game schedule, keeping their core starting pitching healthy means fewer dead-arm spells that pitchers try to work through far too often before admitting something is wrong.

 

But not everyone in the game is convinced the extra day between starts is better for the arm. Former MLB pitcher and current FOX Sports analyst CJ Nikowski spent time pitching in Asia and says his personal experience tells him that the notion that the six-man rotation saved arms in Japan is hogwash.

 

“The problem with the notion of “they do it Asia” is that in the four years I spent pitching in both Korea and Japan, I saw more arm injuries than I did here,” Nitkowski wrote in February of this year. “I remember one day sitting in the bullpen and looking around at my teammates, every one of them had a significant arm injury at some point in their professional career.”

 

While there are no numbers in Nitkowski’s post to determine if his gut model statement is true, Nitkowski cites the increase – some say even insane, per Twins pitcher Blaine Boyer – amounts of sideline throwing between starts and in spring training negates any effects the six-man rotation rest factor would play.

Nitkowski also argued against the six-man structure because it would reduce the number of starts giving to a team’s high-paid ace. The Twins, however, lack any real “ace” caliber pitchers in the current rotation. Distributing the starts among six and keeping arms healthy for the latter portion of the season could ensure that all pitchers are fresh but it could also mean reducing the number of starts for those starters who are clicking.

 

Like the small decrease in limiting the number of injuries, moving from a four-day to a five-day rest period also has a very minor increase in production. According to Baseball-Reference.com’s splits, pitchers who work on a four-day rest cycle have posted a 4.35 ERA since 2000 while those on a five-days of rest have turned in a 4.31 ERA. Over a 30-game span, if that performance maintains, that could be the difference in at least one run.

 

It may be unlikely for the Twins to embrace the idea but If Santana is added to the core of Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Trevor May for the starting six, it might be a very insightful decision by the Twins to maximize their current production…or it could be an innovative way to market a tradable commodity.

 

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[drock2190]

Trade Pelfrey. For anything...

[bluechipper]

The biggest weakness on this team is probably the bullpen. Why not stick Tommy Milone or Mike Pelfrey there and send Aaron Thompson down?

[Mike Sixel]

So, rather than make a hard decision, they are punting......ugh.*

 

*assuming they go 6.....if not, yay!

[Linus]

Wouldn't this guarantee a 13 man pitching staff? Don't like that.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Not sure why this is such a controversial notion.  There was a point when teams used a four man rotation and gradually the league transitioned to a five-man.   If you have the depth and a similar level of effectiveness across your rotation, it does make some degree of sense to consider six.  

 

At this point, the Twins don't have a true "ace", but do have six arms that are performing at a relatively similar level.   I think trying a six man for awhile, until someone either gets hurt or regresses, makes some sense. 

 

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

more like six-man bloat-ation. Am i right you guys?

 

...actually, i like the idea.

[Blackjack]

 

Wouldn't this guarantee a 13 man pitching staff? Don't like that.

 

Or does it mean a 14 man staff?? Probably not but if they think they need 5 starters and 8 relievers now, how will they work it out with only 7 relievers? Especially if they have a couple of blowouts/short starts.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wouldn't be shocked at all if this is the plan for the next 2-3 weeks as they move closer to the deadline.  Gives a couple more weeks where an injury/ineffectiveness could sort out the problem and if not, someone gets moved at the deadline. 

[d-mac]

While, I'd prefer the Twins to send Pelfrey to the bullpen when Santana comes back, I think it's great that the Twins are thinking outside the box here.

 

We'll just to have to see how it goes, if they decide to go this direction. Of course, each pitcher will likely react differently and... we shall see.

[jimmer]

6 man rotations takes starts away from better pitchers and give starts to inferior pitchers. It also messes with routines many have had their whole career.  It could also mean an even larger overall pitching staff and less bench.  It's not a good idea.

Edited July 2, 2015 by jimmer

[jorgenswest]

If the 6 man rotation is only until the all star break it means everyone will get 2 starts with the exception of May getting one start.

 

Assuming Santana starts two games, the Twins have the following option for those losing a start.

 

1-May and Gibson each 1 (6 man rotation)

2-May 2 (May to pen)

3-Milone/Pelfrey 1 and Gibson/May 1 (Milone or Pelfrey to pen, Gibson or May loss depends which starts Tuesday)

 

Which is the best option to take them to the break? I am waiting to see what Pelfrey brings Saturday.

 

Another way to look at it is to consider the opponent. Santana and Hughes are lined up to start against the Tigers. Which 2 of the other 4 give the Twins the best chance to beat the Tigers?

 

The Twins don't need to be debating the merits of a 6 man rotation. They have to figure out how to best win the majority of the next 11 games.

[stringer bell]

Mixed feelings on this. There are six legit starters and none of them is a certainty to be an asset in the bullpen, which is where help is needed. Secondly, it pretty much does guarantee a 13-man staff, something I have railed against for months or at least since the Twins added another relief pitcher.  Perhaps, short term this isn't a bad idea but after the All-Star break, it should be decided who is in the rotation or not.

[puckstopper1]

Oh, goodie!

[Parker Hageman]

6 man rotations takes starts away from better pitchers and give starts to inferior pitchers. It also messes with routines many have had their whole career.

 

 

If your rotation has an elite caliber pitcher, yes, you would be reducing the amount of innings provided to that arm. The Twins, however, do not have that type of starter at the present. On the whole, the rotation is decisively average. In theory, stretching out the arms is one way to increase production. 

 

Second, a pitcher's career prior to the majors did not always follow the four-day rest schedule. For instance, Berrios has had anywhere from five-to-seven days between some of his outings this year. 

 

My biggest hesitation to the six-man is having that many pitchers and reducing the bench (although the bench hasn't been great either). That said, if the Twins decide to roll with it for a few weeks before the deadline it seems fine to me. 

 

[jimmer]

'If your rotation has an elite caliber pitcher, yes, you would be reducing the amount of innings provided to that arm. The Twins, however, do not have that type of starter at the present.' 

 

There are pitchers better on this rotation than others.  They are not carbon copies of each other.  Any way you slice it, any time you make a rotation larger, an inferior pitcher will pitch in games where a better starter could have pitched.

 

'On the whole, the rotation is decisively average. In theory, stretching out the arms is one way to increase production.'

 

How does this stretch out their arms by pitching less games? It limits innings.  

 

'Second, a pitcher's career prior to the majors did not always follow the four-day rest schedule. For instance, Berrios has had anywhere from five-to-seven days between some of his outings this year.'

 

What are Pelfrey, Santana, and Milone used to?  I said many not all and when in the majors, the routine is every five days, doesn't matter what they may have done in the minors at some point.

 

'My biggest hesitation to the six-man is having that many pitchers and reducing the bench (although the bench hasn't been great either).'

 

I said this in my post.

 

If we don't care about giving our team the best chances to win as many games this year as we can, then go with a 6 man rotation.  Pitch inferior pitchers and mess with their routines instead of making a tough decision.

 

 

Edited July 2, 2015 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

 

There are pitchers better on this rotation than others.  They are not carbon copies of each other.  Any way you slice it, any time you make a rotation larger, an inferior pitcher will pitch in games where a better starter could have pitched.

Welp its definitely not clear to me who are the best and worst starters. Would you enlighten?

[Parker Hageman]

If we don't care about giving our team the best chances to win as many games this year as we can, then go with a 6 man rotation.  Pitch inferior pitchers and mess with their routines instead of making a tough decision.

 

 

I don't know if you read the article but statistically speaking, rotations improve (albeit marginally) when going from the four-day rest to a five-day rest cycle. Inferior arms or not. By that measure it gives a team a better chance to win. 

 

To your point about "pitchers being used to things", that's a crutch. Yes, there is some psychological effect but pitchers have transitioned from rotation to bullpen from majors to minors, etc, etc. Pitchers will adapt. 

 

 

 

[gocgo]

Anyone else think that Santana looks kinda like Janet Jackson in that picture?

[jimmer]

 

Welp its definitely not clear to me who are the best and worst starters. Would you enlighten?

Seems pretty sarcastic and I don't know why what I've written warrants that, but whatever.

 

Do you think the 5 we have right now are all performing at the same exactly level? 

 

At present, I personally believe based on what I've seen along with historical pitching and stats I value, I'd say the four guys who should remain in the rotation when Santana comes back and joins it are:

 

May, 

Gibson

Hughes

Pelfrey

 

Those four plus Santana would be my five guys unless a trade can be worked.

 

But that doesn't matter.  Point is, they are not all the same.  If there is at least one guy better than the others, he will get less starts than he would in a five man rotation in order to have an inferior pitcher start. This isn't theory.  Whether or not it will hurt the production of the rotation overall is the debatable part. 

 

Then there's the possible addition to the number of pitchers overall we have and a smaller bench.

Edited July 2, 2015 by jimmer

[jimmer]

 

I don't know if you read the article but statistically speaking, rotations improve (albeit marginally) when going from the four-day rest to a five-day rest cycle. Inferior arms or not. By that measure it gives a team a better chance to win. 

 

To your point about "pitchers being used to things", that's a crutch. Yes, there is some psychological effect but pitchers have transitioned from rotation to bullpen from majors to minors, etc, etc. Pitchers will adapt. 

Ball players are creatures of habit.  They do better when they have a routine to follow and aren't jerked around.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If your rotation has an elite caliber pitcher, yes, you would be reducing the amount of innings provided to that arm. The Twins, however, do not have that type of starter at the present. On the whole, the rotation is decisively average. In theory, stretching out the arms is one way to increase production. 

 

Second, a pitcher's career prior to the majors did not always follow the four-day rest schedule. For instance, Berrios has had anywhere from five-to-seven days between some of his outings this year. 

 

My biggest hesitation to the six-man is having that many pitchers and reducing the bench (although the bench hasn't been great either). That said, if the Twins decide to roll with it for a few weeks before the deadline it seems fine to me. 

 

Where does it stop? 7 man rotation? 10 man rotation? If the logic is "less use, stretched out more is good" where does that logic stop?

 

There are only 24 spots on the bench, this creates issues.

[jimmer]

 

Where does it stop? 7 man rotation? 10 man rotation? If the logic is "less use, stretched out more is good" where does that logic stop?

 

There are only 24 spots on the bench, this creates issues.

It stops at the exact point the Twins decide it does :-)

 

And expanding rotations don't stretch arms out, they pitch less not more.

Edited July 2, 2015 by jimmer

[tobi0040]

I would go 6 man two times through and rest everyone a bit.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would go 6 man two times through and rest everyone a bit.

 

Then what? At some point, you have to actually make a decision......

[Willihammer]

 

Where does it stop? 7 man rotation? 10 man rotation? If the logic is "less use, stretched out more is good" where does that logic stop?

 

There are only 24 spots on the bench, this creates issues.

According to my math it stops at 6 (12 position players, 7 relievers). 7 at the absolute max.

[Willihammer]

 

Point is, they are not all the same.  If there is at least one guy better than the others, he will get less starts than he would in a five man rotation in order to have an inferior pitcher start. This isn't theory.  Whether or not it will hurt the production of the rotation overall is the debatable part..

And one could could make about a dozen compelling arguments any which way ATM. We are also lacking info. on most guys how they would perform in relief, which further clouds the picture.

[stringer bell]

It's pretty obvious that there is no consensus about the rotation and this segment of Twins Daily is comprised of fervent fans. I think that if five of us were asked to rank the starters from 1-5, we'd get five different lists. In the Twins case "best" and "worse" looks to be a matter of opinion.

[tobi0040]

 

Then what? At some point, you have to actually make a decision......

 

The reality is in twelve more games someone will likely be hurt and/or someone like Pelfrey will prove to be the same guy we have seen.  We will have more information.

 

 

.

Edited July 2, 2015 by tobi0040

[blairpaul715]

 

It stops at the exact point the Twins decide it does :-)

 

And expanding rotations don't stretch arms out, they pitch less not more.

If you reread what he wrote, he means by "stretched out", more time between starts for rest. Not the 'traditional' stretched out like you do on a rehab.