Article: Twins Sign Dominican SS Wander Javier

[James]

 

This is how you end up with Sano, Kepler, Polanco.....going big.

It's true.  You have to go big to get those guys, but they signed when the rules were different as well, which made it a lot easier for teams to go really big on international prospects.

 

I think they should go big too, but what if there was really only the one guy (Javier) that they really liked this year?  (I find it hard to believe that he's the only guy, though).  But to give one guy your entire bonus pool means they must have really liked what they have seen in this kid.  So, I think the Twins are going big in a way this year.

 

I'm sure the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and other teams are going to get penalized in the new CBA for going over their pool this year.  I can't see there being an agreement among all the other teams that would allow teams going over their limit this signing period to not face any penalty at all. 

[Mike Sixel]

It seems unlikely all the other teams giving out million dollar bonuses are high on those players, and the Twins are not.

 

I just don't think this is their (Ryan's) style.......

[James]

 

It seems unlikely all the other teams giving out million dollar bonuses are high on those players, and the Twins are not.

 

I just don't think this is their (Ryan's) style.......

I agree.  There's also the possibility that they have seen a few guys that they really like but aren't eligible to sign next's year's signing period, so they want to ensure they have the ability to sign some next year.

 

There are a lot of factors that are going into whether or not to go way over the bonus pool, and I'm not sure that we'll ever know everything that went into these decisions.  

 

I agree that it's not really Ryan's style to go all out like that though.  Javier sounds like he could be a very exciting prospect though.  I'm excited to see him develop.  

[gunnarthor]

 

 

This is how you end up with Sano, Kepler, Polanco.....going big.

IIRC, everyone loved Sano but Polanco wasn't a top level signee and Kepler was a bit of a curiosity.  I think it's not quite all about money as it is getting the right guys.

 

In any event, I don't know how to link a tweet but Callis and Badler had a fun conversation:

 

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  20 hours ago

Jim Callis retweeted Ben Badler
And I remember how @Pirates drafted Tony Sanchez fourth overall to save $ to go all in on Sano. Whoops. Jim Callis added,
Ben Badler @BenBadler
The same year the Twins international scouts signed Miguel Sano, they also signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. What a monster class.

[Brock Beauchamp]

IIRC, everyone loved Sano but Polanco wasn't a top level signee and Kepler was a bit of a curiosity. I think it's not quite all about money as it is getting the right guys.

 

In any event, I don't know how to link a tweet but Callis and Badler had a fun conversation:

 

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 20 hours ago

Jim Callis retweeted Ben Badler

And I remember how @Pirates drafted Tony Sanchez fourth overall to save $ to go all in on Sano. Whoops. Jim Callis added,

Ben Badler @BenBadler

The same year the Twins international scouts signed Miguel Sano, they also signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. What a monster class.

Yeah, I recall Polanco and Kepler being well regarded but they weren't can't miss guys like Sano. Unless my memory is broken, I don't think either got even $1m.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins are in the area where they'll need to pay tax on the overage. It would surprise me if they didn't add to their pool (they can add almost $2m). I'd be more shocked if they went further over, and getting penalties that limit his much they can sign (or eventually lose picks in a world draft).

[2wins87]

 

Yeah, I recall Polanco and Kepler being well regarded but they weren't can't miss guys like Sano. Unless my memory is broken, I don't think either got even $1m.

 

Kepler got $800k, Polanco $750k

[Mike Sixel]

Kepler got the most money any European ever had (has?)......I'm pretty sure that is going big......

 

As posted above, Polanco and Kepler got real money, not $250K money.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins are in the area where they'll need to pay tax on the overage. It would surprise me if they didn't add to their pool (they can add almost $2m). I'd be more shocked if they went further over, and getting penalties that limit his much they can sign (or eventually lose picks in a world draft).

 

Agreed, if they go over by this small amount, and lose out on next year just for signing 1 guy? that would be awful use of resources, just awful.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The Twins have been rumored in on others.  I doubt they are done.  I suspect they plan on making some trades.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins have been rumored in on others.  I doubt they are done.  I suspect they plan on making some trades.

 

Others that make more than $250 or $300K (whatever the limit is)? Are there any left?

[2wins87]

Next year is going to be interesting.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels, and Diamondbacks are still going to be subject to the $300,000 penalty from last year.  Based on the information available now, the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, and Royals will be joining them.  The Phillies and Braves are also well over their pools but have plenty of maneuvering room via trade.

 

I think I'd rather have the Twins trade for space and stay under cap this year.  Next year could be pretty interesting and projecting the strength of future international classes is next to impossible.

[2wins87]

 

Next year is going to be interesting.  The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Angels, and Diamondbacks are still going to be subject to the $300,000 penalty from last year.  Based on the information available now, the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, and Royals will be joining them.  The Phillies and Braves are also well over their pools but have plenty of maneuvering room via trade.

 

I think I'd rather have the Twins trade for space and stay under cap this year.  Next year could be pretty interesting and projecting the strength of future international classes is next to impossible.

 

If the reports on Vlad Jr's signing are correct the Blue Jays will also be at least 10% over their pool

[twinsfanstreif]

 

And "top 10" is a little misleading. Kiley McDaniel puts him in the top 7, and top 4 among 16 or younger players. The three top ones are actually 18 (Bahamas), 19, and 20 (Cuba), which makes them unfair comparisons.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2015int&type=0&pos=all

 

Here are the tools for Javier according to McDaniel:

 

Hit           Game Power    Raw Power       Speed        Field        Arm

20 / 45+       20 / 45+           45+ / 50+         55 / 60     50 / 55     55 / 55

so a future 45/45 hit and power tool with average other tools doesn't seem to add up. I'm not sure McDaniel understands future ratings or potential. I'm under the impression that those future ratings are supposed to be ceiling potential and the ratings he gives reads more like a utility infielder at best. You don't pay a guy $4 million to be a future utility infielder.

[tobi0040]

 

so a future 45/45 hit and power tool with average other tools doesn't seem to add up. I'm not sure McDaniel understands future ratings or potential. I'm under the impression that those future ratings are supposed to be ceiling potential and the ratings he gives reads more like a utility infielder at best. You don't pay a guy $4 million to be a future utility infielder.

 

45+ power and 50+ raw power shows me he will have average or above average power, to go along with plus speed and an above average arm.  For a SS, that is a plus SS, not a utility guy.

 

*assuming these numbers translate to reality in six years which is nowhere near a lock

Edited July 2, 2015 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

 

so a future 45/45 hit and power tool with average other tools doesn't seem to add up. I'm not sure McDaniel understands future ratings or potential. I'm under the impression that those future ratings are supposed to be ceiling potential and the ratings he gives reads more like a utility infielder at best. You don't pay a guy $4 million to be a future utility infielder.

 

Uh, McDaniel is a former professional scout, and highly respected writer. I'm pretty sure he understands what he's typing.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

Agreed, if they go over by this small amount, and lose out on next year just for signing 1 guy? that would be awful use of resources, just awful.

Why hyperbolize and fret over a hypothetical? - wait until they do something to rip them

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why hyperbolize and fret over a hypothetical? - wait until they do something to rip them

 

I was responding to a post......and didn't say they would do it any place in that post.

[Seth Stohs]

My question, and I don't think there is a right answer, would you rather:

 

1.) Sign one guy at $4 million, or

2.) Sign five guys at $800,000 each.

 

For me, I'd probably go with option two. Sano may make it, but most of even then big dollar guys don't end up making it. I guess I'd rather have 5 guys who could make it. But then again, if Sano becomes what we hope, then it's worth the investment.

 

Miguel Cabrera signed for something like $900,000.

[nytwinsfan]

 

so a future 45/45 hit and power tool with average other tools doesn't seem to add up. I'm not sure McDaniel understands future ratings or potential. I'm under the impression that those future ratings are supposed to be ceiling potential and the ratings he gives reads more like a utility infielder at best. You don't pay a guy $4 million to be a future utility infielder.

Trust me, McDaniel understands future ratings and potential way way better than you or me.

 

I am pretty sure those are not ceilings at all, especially for 16 year olds. I'm pretty sure he has explained elsewhere that they are the most likely outcome, and for the total FV (although not for the tools), he discounts some based on age and the concomitant risk (see the last paragraph of this link).

 

Also, those kind of tools for a shortstop are really good. They wouldn't be for a corner outfielder. An average hitting, average power SS (average meaning league average, not position average - an absolutely critical distinction) with plus speed and above average defense is a great asset, and probably a top 100 prospect when he gets to A ball.

 

For instance, McDaniel gives JP Crawford the same tools as Javier, with the exception that JP Crawford has a 55 hit tool rather than a 45+ and a raw power of 50 rather than 50+.  Obviously any team would trade the 45+ hit tool and the 50+ power tool of Javier for the 55 hit and the 50 power tool of Crawford, but it just shows you that Javier is not that far away from Crawford, tool wise, and McDaniel ranked Crawford the 10th best prospect in baseball back in February, before a lot of players like Bryant, Buxton, Russell and Correa were called up.

 

It just isn't realistic to expect legitimate SS prospects to have plus plus or even plus hit or power tools. Those with plus plus or plus hit and power tools almost always end up at 3B, 2B or even further down the defensive spectrum. That is why Troy Tulowitzki is Troy Tulowitzki.

[d-mac]

 

IIRC, everyone loved Sano but Polanco wasn't a top level signee and Kepler was a bit of a curiosity.  I think it's not quite all about money as it is getting the right guys.

 

In any event, I don't know how to link a tweet but Callis and Badler had a fun conversation:

 

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  20 hours ago

Jim Callis retweeted Ben Badler
And I remember how @Pirates drafted Tony Sanchez fourth overall to save $ to go all in on Sano. Whoops. Jim Callis added,
Ben Badler @BenBadler
The same year the Twins international scouts signed Miguel Sano, they also signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. What a monster class.

 

When it comes to 16 year olds it's about quantity. 3 is better than one.

[Mike Sixel]

 

My question, and I don't think there is a right answer, would you rather:

 

1.) Sign one guy at $4 million, or

2.) Sign five guys at $800,000 each.

 

For me, I'd probably go with option two. Sano may make it, but most of even then big dollar guys don't end up making it. I guess I'd rather have 5 guys who could make it. But then again, if Sano becomes what we hope, then it's worth the investment.

 

Miguel Cabrera signed for something like $900,000.

 

that hasn't been the Twins' strategy though.......it has been 1 - 2 guys for more than $250K, and then a bunch of cheaper guys. You are calling for 5 guys in the top 20......they've only signed 1 most years, right?

 

Miguel Cabrera signed how many years ago? That's not even a real number now.

[d-mac]

 

My question, and I don't think there is a right answer, would you rather:

 

1.) Sign one guy at $4 million, or

2.) Sign five guys at $800,000 each.

 

For me, I'd probably go with option two. Sano may make it, but most of even then big dollar guys don't end up making it. I guess I'd rather have 5 guys who could make it. But then again, if Sano becomes what we hope, then it's worth the investment.

 

Miguel Cabrera signed for something like $900,000.

Seconded!

[Seth Stohs]

 

that hasn't been the Twins' strategy though.......it has been 1 - 2 guys for more than $250K, and then a bunch of cheaper guys. You are calling for 5 guys in the top 20......they've only signed 1 most years, right?

 

Miguel Cabrera signed how many years ago? That's not even a real number now.

 

Yeah, probably equates to like $1.5M now (Especially under the new rules). There were guys getting much more than that at the time, which was my only point. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Toronto just traded two prospects to the Dodgers for between $1-2m in cap space. One of the prospects is of similar age, level, production, upside as Felix Jorge. The other is a second baseman who isn't listed in BA's Handbook..

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, probably equates to like $1.5M now (Especially under the new rules). There were guys getting much more than that at the time, which was my only point. 

 

I would rather 5 guys in the top 20, I agree.......well, I'd rather they had gone way over 2-3 years ago, and done what the Cubs did this year, but that's the past.

 

With an impending draft, I'm not super annoyed they aren't doing what I'd do, but I'm not thrilled with the strategy the last few years. Until we see what happens this year, I won't judge it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Toronto just traded two prospects to the Dodgers for between $1-2m in cap space. One of the prospects is of similar age, level, production, upside as Felix Jorge. The other is a second baseman who isn't listed in BA's Handbook..

 

Bummer. There's one team the Twins can't deal for space with......I hope they aren't waiting this out.

[jorgenswest]

My question, and I don't think there is a right answer, would you rather:

 

1.) Sign one guy at $4 million, or

2.) Sign five guys at $800,000 each.

 

For me, I'd probably go with option two. Sano may make it, but most of even then big dollar guys don't end up making it. I guess I'd rather have 5 guys who could make it. But then again, if Sano becomes what we hope, then it's worth the investment.

 

Miguel Cabrera signed for something like $900,000.

I agree with you in theory. I think every team would go this route. It wouldn't work. The Twins have a larger bonus pool this year than they will see in the future. They used it to get one guy that likely would have signed by those going over pool. If they try to sign a bunch of guys just above $500,000 they could be left with the players they targeted going to other teams with the same plan. Now they have to turn to lesser players and still offer them an amount above the level that the restricted teams can pay.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Others that make more than $250 or $300K (whatever the limit is)? Are there any left?

 

The cap is cumulative.  You don't get unlimited picks under a certain range.  They are rumored in on other picks, not to mention I don't think it's their style to go all in on one guy.  I suspect they will be trading for cap space as teams like the Cubs have excess which they cannot use... 

[SarasotaBill]

Get quality instead of quantity.

 

The Twins system has plenty of depth.

 

It needs more elite players.

 

Would you trade a top 5 pick in the draft for three second round picks?

 

I understand baseball doesn't allow draft pick trading.