Article: Twins Sign Dominican SS Wander Javier

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The Twins made a splash early in the International Free Agency signing period by signing 16-year-old shortstop Wander Javier from the Dominican Republic for $4 million. MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez was the first to report it this morning.Whenever you're talking about anyone in the International market, there are two kickers: 1) It's all about projection. We are - at the very least - five or six years from seeing these guys play at the highest level. 2) Scouting reports are very hard to come by, so we rely heavily on what Ben Badler and Kiley McDaniel tell us.

 

The first mention of the Javier-Twins connection came from McDaniel on March 2. In that article, McDaniel called Javier a 50 runner, but mentioned his "easy [arm] actions [at short} and an above average arm with an ability to stick at the position." He also said the Javier "flashes average raw power."

 

Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com wrote the following about Javier in mid-May.

Javier has a good build for a shortstop, and he has the defensive actions that will allow him to stay at there — at least at the beginning of his professional career. Some scouts project that his body will force him to move from shortstop to third base, but there’s also chance he stays at his original position.

Javier is a strong teenager. He has plus raw power and plus arm strength, and he’s shown the ability to hit in games. It’s his hit tool that has some scouts thinking that Javier will be a middle-of-the-order type of player. Overall, he presents an interesting package of tools to scouts, but many evaluators want to see him display those talents more consistently. Other scouts believe he is the best all-around player in the class.

Baseball America recently ranked Javier as the #9 most-talented player in the class and credits him with having the best infield arm and mentions him among best defensive infielders. He's also considered one of the most exciting players in the class.

 

Baseball America has also said the following things about Javier over the last few weeks:

 

"Want tools? Javier has them."

"His speed and arm strength are both plus tools."

"Javier has strong, quick wrists to whip the bat through the zone, driving the ball with good exit speed during BP that leads some scouts to project him to develop future plus power."

"The widespread question on Javier is whether he will be able to make the adjustments to have better results at the plate."

"It’s hard to find shortstops in the draft with tools like Javier’s, which is why some teams are drawn to his high ceiling, even with the bat risk."

I was able to track down one trained eye who has seen Javier and he called Javier "one of the best amateurs [he's] ever seen." He lauded Javier's polish, calling him a "good player, but also has tools and projectability". He believes that Javier will be a shortstop long-term which "increases his value."

 

So what do you think? Four million dollars well spent?

 

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[gunnarthor]

Sure, why not? 

[Larsbars08]

Well, it's not my money, so I'd say it's a great way to spend 4 million dollars.

[Dman]

I am just happy that they will get one guy rated in the top 10.  At least they bought a decent lotto ticket for this year.  Not sure how much they have left to spend for their typical guys on the fringes but I am guessing they have a plan?  Will be interesting to see what the prices are in the market this year.

[Seth Stohs]

Hey Jeremy, The Twins international signing pool was something shy of $4 million. They haven't made any trades yet. Can you explain the ramifications of going over their spending limit or what they need to do?

[Mike Sixel]

It's not the money, they have plenty of money. What else will they do this year, that's the question.

[tobi0040]

 

It's not the money, they have plenty of money. What else will they do this year, that's the question.

 

Give me one guy like this every offseason and it works for me. 

[nytwinsfan]

And "top 10" is a little misleading. Kiley McDaniel puts him in the top 7, and top 4 among 16 or younger players. The three top ones are actually 18 (Bahamas), 19, and 20 (Cuba), which makes them unfair comparisons.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2015int&type=0&pos=all

 

Here are the tools for Javier according to McDaniel:

 

Hit           Game Power    Raw Power       Speed        Field        Arm

20 / 45+       20 / 45+           45+ / 50+         55 / 60     50 / 55     55 / 55

Edited July 2, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Seth Stohs]

 

It's not the money, they have plenty of money. What else will they do this year, that's the question.

 

I'm not worried about the money either. Doesn't affect me at all. I worry about the ramifications. I don't want them losing the ability to sign more players because of it.

[Pitz]

There has been considerable debate on TD about whether the Twins should be willing to blow past there pool as some other teams have done and be willing to take the penalties in hopes of signing a great class of talent. It is not my intention to reopen that discussion and the ethics of the international signing strategies.

 

What I will say is that if the Twins aim to stay within the rules and the spending limits, I think they have done a pretty solid job of trying to mix in high dollar guys and also 'spreading the net fairly wide.' When they see a player (such as Javier) who they think is worth the big bonus and they have a good chance to sign, they are willing to do so, but they have also mixed in a good number of smaller bonus signs that have also shown some promise. Signing these guys is complex and there appear to be so many factors that dictate where a player will sign, I do not have any problem with the Twins approach as they have (at least up to this point) worked within the rules and pools set forth by MLB.

[nytwinsfan]

 

 

Hey Jeremy, The Twins international signing pool was something shy of $4 million. They haven't made any trades yet. Can you explain the ramifications of going over their spending limit or what they need to do?

Even if they don't make trades, they can go 5% over without getting really hard penalties (i.e., not being able to sign anyone over $500K next year). But I think Darren Wolfson reported a while back that the Twins were looking to make trades for more space anyway.

 

Here is a primer on the penalties: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/2014-15-international-signing-period-primer.html

Edited July 2, 2015 by nytwinsfan

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Give me one guy like this every offseason and it works for me. 

I prefer a mix. While I'm all in favor of going big when you feel it's the right guy, I think a more solid approach is to cast the net wide and pick up a lot of "hey, this kid looks really good" players when the field looks like less of a sure thing.

 

These are 16-17 year old kids. The wider you cast the net, the more likely you are to find a diamond in the rough... Unless, of course, there's a kid you absolutely must have at any price.

[Loosey]

Jeremy,  If for instance the Twins do go over their spending pool amount (without trades) Is there a penalty for not being able to sign any players the next year?  I thought I read that this year the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels were non-players in the international signings because they went so far over last year and they seem to do that every other year.  True or did I misinterpet?

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm not worried about the money either. Doesn't affect me at all. I worry about the ramifications. I don't want them losing the ability to sign more players because of it.

I think the bigger thing for me is, that actually went out and signed a player like Javier. 

[jorgenswest]

This one signing exceeds their pool. They can go 5% over with the only penalty being dollars. More than 5% and it impacts their ability to sign players next year. That would be foolish because if you are going to go over, go way over. Sign multiple guys in the top 30. That isn't going to happen.

 

They are throwing their international eggs in one basket this year. They can trade for more pool money, but most of these guys will never make it. It would be unwise to trade Arcia or similar for pool money. Almost any younger player they have in AA or AAA is much more likely to be useful at the major league level than a 16 year old signing

Edited July 2, 2015 by jorgenswest

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think the bigger thing for me is, that actually went out and signed a player like Javier. 

 

I 100% agree... just curious what the other pieces will be. Who will get traded for cap room? Will they be able to sign anyone else. Stuff like that.

[Pitz]

The Twins' pool according to Baseball America is $3,948,500.

 

+ 5% = $4,145,925 (If my math is correct).

[drjim]

They can still sign multiple $250k guys that don't count against the cap right?

 

Maybe they figured the other big ticket guys were gobbled up by the handful of teams blowing past their budget and went big on the guy they wanted. Perhaps they have other lesser guys (bigger than $250k) in mind if they can acquire some cap room - Kiley said Philly and Atlanta are trying to do the same thing.

 

If I want to be really optimistic, maybe this is part of a package deal to get guys lined up for next year.

[nytwinsfan]

 

They can still sign multiple $250k guys that don't count against the cap right?

 

 

I don't think so. Not unless they trade for more space, which they can do up to almost $ 6 million. I expect them to at least try to do that.

[gunnarthor]

 

Jeremy,  If for instance the Twins do go over their spending pool amount (without trades) Is there a penalty for not being able to sign any players the next year?  I thought I read that this year the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels were non-players in the international signings because they went so far over last year and they seem to do that every other year.  True or did I misinterpet?

I believe that the Yankees are still allowed to sign individuals but they can't sign anyone for more than 300k.

[Mike Sixel]

From the linked article (last year's rules, not sure if they changed):

 

•All overages are taxed at 100 percent.
•Exceed bonus pool by 5 to 10 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $500K in the following international signing period.
•Exceed by 10 to 15 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300K in the following international signing period.
•Exceed by more than 15 percent: Team is not allowed to sign a player for more than $300K in the following two international signing periods.

[nytwinsfan]

http://dplbaseball.com/featured-post/wander-javier-and-the-twins-seal-a-deal/

 

http://dplbaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/IMG_1674.jpg

[Loosey]

 

I believe that the Yankees are still allowed to sign individuals but they can't sign anyone for more than 300k.

Thanks.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm guessing the plan is to unload some of the near ready back of the rotation types in Rochester (Pat Dean comes to mind) for cap dollars.  Those guys are pretty valuable to a lot of teams and really won't have a shot here with the 7 MLB starters we currently have and the guys like Rogers, Berrios, and Duffey making a case to be included.

[Monkeypaws]

Another nice piece for the system. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hope the Twins go big this year. It'd be a sound strategy because the CBA will likely change and if they buy several high profile prospects, there's a good chance they'll be coming to Minnesota just as the current crop of prospects are pricing themselves off the team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I hope the Twins go big this year. It'd be a sound strategy because the CBA will likely change and if they buy several high profile prospects, there's a good chance they'll be coming to Minnesota just as the current crop of prospects are pricing themselves off the team.

 

Most of the top players (other than maybe a Cuban or two) are already locked in. I don't know if they can go big this year at this point.......so I'm not holding my breath. Also, the Dodgers are buying every Cuban, as far as can be confirmed at this point this year......so good luck with that.

 

Kiley predicts that teams that go over this year or next will be punished in the next CBA, so it is not w/o risk to do so (likely losing a draft pick, would be my guess, assuming there is an Int'l draft).

 

Only 3-4 teams are expected to go all in this year. Next year's crop (where have we heard that before) is supposed to be better.

[d-mac]

 

I prefer a mix. While I'm all in favor of going big when you feel it's the right guy, I think a more solid approach is to cast the net wide and pick up a lot of "hey, this kid looks really good" players when the field looks like less of a sure thing.

 

These are 16-17 year old kids. The wider you cast the net, the more likely you are to find a diamond in the rough... Unless, of course, there's a kid you absolutely must have at any price.

 

This one signing exceeds their pool. They can go 5% over with the only penalty being dollars. More than 5% and it impacts their ability to sign players next year. That would be foolish because if you are going to go over, go way over. Sign multiple guys in the top 30. That isn't going to happen.

They are throwing their international eggs in one basket this year. They can trade for more pool money, but most of these guys will never make it. It would be unwise to trade Arcia or similar for pool money. Almost any younger player they have in AA or AAA is much more likely to be useful at the major league level than a 16 year old signing

 

I agree with both of you guys here. They put all of their 4 million proverbial eggs in one basket. It's really hard to predict what a 16 year old from a third world country is going to turn into. I'm sure the Twins are convinced that this is a can't miss prospect, but I'd prefer if they had spent it on 4 $1 million dollar kids. I think the odds of getting a productive major leaguer are better that way.

 

And if they are going to go over- just do it and spend money like drunken sailors. No need to pussyfoot around. Sign as many top guys in a year as they can.

[Mike Sixel]

Like the Cubs just did? I wish the Twins would have done this.....

 

"The Cubs have made a splash early in the international market by locking up a lengthy list of players to significant bonuses. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez first reported the bulk of the signings.

Among the players inked, the biggest bonus goes to Yonathan Sierra Estiwal, an outfielder from the Dominican Republic, who’ll get $2.5MM. Another $2MM will go to countryman Aramis Ademan, a shortstop, whose signing was first reported by Ben Badler of Baseball America with Sanchez adding the cash value.

Also checking in with seven-figure bonuses were Venezuelan shortstop Yonathan Perlaza ($1.3MM), Panamanian catcher Miguel Amaya ($1.25MM), and Dominican corner infielder Christopher Martinez ($1MM). Sanchez adds that righty Yunior Perez is also going to Chicago for $600K."

 

This is how you end up with Sano, Kepler, Polanco.....going big.

 

 

[drjim]

I don't think so. Not unless they trade for more space, which they can do up to almost $ 6 million. I expect them to at least try to do that.

There is some exempted amount of a signing (and a certain number of signings for that amount) that does not count against the cap but don't remember the amount. Might be less than $250k.