Article: Appreciating Dozier's Dominant First Half

[Nick Nelson]

After a refreshingly strong first two months, the Twins settled into a June funk that saw their record slide back toward the .500 mark. Several players who were performing well early on came hurtling back to Earth, helping contribute to what some might consider a team-wide regression to the mean.

 

One player who hasn't let up one bit is Brian Dozier, who is on a borderline MVP-caliber pace with about half of the season in the books.There have been plenty of great stories on this team – from the rotation's rebound to Glen Perkins' dominance to Eddie Rosario's impressive debut – but Dozier is the biggest stand-out for this upstart club, with numbers that would justifiably put him in the American League MVP conversation at season's end if he keeps them up. And judging by his continued absence among even the Top 5 American League vote-getters for second base in the All-Star Game, it seems that baseball at large hasn't really taken notice.

 

Here's a look at where Dozier ranks in several popular offensive categories compared to his MLB peers at second base:

 

OPS: 2nd (.869)

HR: 1st (16)

RBI: 1st (40)

R: 1st (58)

XBH: 1st (42)

BB: 4th (30)

Dozier's .266 batting average is nothing special, and unfortunately that seems to diminish his value in the eyes of some, but he has quite clearly been one of the game's best producers at his position and in fact he's been one of baseball's best power hitters in general. His 42 extra-base hits rank third in the majors and first in the AL.

 

That is particularly amazing when you look at where Dozier came from.

 

Back in 2011, he was an eighth-round draft pick out of a fairly small college – he's one of only two active big-leaguers from the University of Southern Mississippi – and he signed for only $30,000. Early in his pro career, Dozier carried the profile of a utility man: not quite good enough defensively to start at short, but lacking the offensive punch to be a regular anywhere else.

 

Certainly, no one would have anticipated that power-hitting would be any kind of strength for him. He didn't hit his first home run until his 126th professional game, and totaled only 16 homers in 1,613 minor-league plate appearances.

 

A scouting report on Dozier from Baseball America's John Manuel back in 2012 called Dozier "skilled and savvy," adding that he "gets the most out of his solid athleticism and endears himself to managers with his grinding style." Those attributes have played out in a big way as the infielder has ascended and grown from a light-hitting prospect into a dominant major league slugger.

 

Not only has Dozier blossomed as a player on the field, but he continues to be viewed as a tremendous teammate, a highly marketable asset for the organization, and one of the most outgoing and insightful interview subjects in the clubhouse for media members.

 

His four-year contract, signed late in spring training, didn't buy out any free agency years and seemed to yield little upside to the Twins beyond potential savings in the event that he somehow continued developing into an even bigger star. Well, that's just what we're seeing, and at this rate his $3 million salary next year and his $6 million salary in 2017 look like nice bargains compared to what he might have been able to negotiate through arbitration.

 

It's difficult to attach a monetary value to what Dozier has provided the Twins this year. He has been the one constant in a lineup that has endured some ugly slumps, with an OPS that is 100 points higher than the next qualified player (Torii Hunter). His defense has been great, and if you buy into intangibles, he offers them in spades.

 

Look around Dozier on the many leaderboards he appears on, and you're unlikely to find many players who have risen as far as he has, from as humble beginnings. He's a tremendous story and a deserving face of the franchise.

 

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[jimbo92107]

I remember when I first saw him, how I liked Brian Dozier's gritty attitude. Reminded me of Nick Punto, as did his bat. When I heard that he was working with Bruno on improving his power numbers, like most people I didn't think much of it, and I was as surprised as anybody when he suddenly started jacking high inside pitches over the fence.

 

But that wasn't his only improvement. I also remember when Dozier started developing his sliding style of fielding, to make up for his otherwise limited range from left to right. Now, he's the best in the league at sliding fielding, and it seems like other guys are copying his style.

 

Best part is, every new skill Dozier has developed has been a well-considered, intentional addition to improve his game, and he always manages to play within himself in a physically sustainable way. Dozier's baseball-specific skillset makes him the most valuable position player on this team.

 

I hope Eddie Rosario is paying close attention.

[dougkoebernick]

Good story - though I would quibble about baseball at large not taking notice. I think players, managers and front offices notice. 

[TheLeviathan]

The guy has really proven that extension to be a smart thing and steadied his play considerably.  

[Mike Sixel]

Big fan. So happy they did not deal him.

[spinowner]

Corey Provus made a point during last night's broadcast that Dozier scores over 50% of the time he reaches base and that there are very few players who do that more frequently. I thought that was interesting. Any of the stat heads here care to flesh that out?

[Seth Stohs]

It's really between him and Jason Kipnis for the top 2B in the AL right now. What makes that such a big statement is that guys like Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Jose Altuve play 2B in the AL.

[harren10]

He quickly became my favorite player on the team last year. I was pumped when he signed for 4. I think he gets to home base a lot because he brings so much energy to the bases and the other team hates it.

[Seth Stohs]

Hopefully Dozier's success can make people stop thinking so negatively of 4-year college seniors and realize that yeah, maybe they'll be a little older than the competition until they get to AA, but anything can happen. 

 

I first had Dozier on a podcast late in his Minor League Hitter of the Year season between Ft. Myers and New Britain. It was in talking to him that I could tell he was going to be special. Very thoughtful. Very smart. Works really hard. Quiet. Focused. But also really talented. 

 

Every time I go into the Twins clubhouse, he'll come over and pat me on the back and ask how I'm doing, how things are. We'll chat for 10 minutes about baseball or just about other things. This is a really great human being, and for me, it's fun to see him taking off into stardom!

[jimmer]

 

It's really between him and Jason Kipnis for the top 2B in the AL right now. What makes that such a big statement is that guys like Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Jose Altuve play 2B in the AL.

I think Pedroia is still right there with both those guys and he's consistently good.  Kipnis is on and off while Dozier just keeps getting better.  No 2B in the game has been better than Dozier since 2014, and this is even considering his defense is under-rated, IMO, by metrics.

Edited July 1, 2015 by jimmer

[jmlease1]

Dozier is having a terrific season, and it's really nice to see. I was very happy they signed him to a long-term deal this year and spending $18M on him over the next 3 years looks like a steal right now (there's no way he doesn't pull bigger numbers in arbitration).

 

You have to hope some of the young guys in the system look at how he's built himself into an all-star caliber player and follow suit. He's been building in new components of his game every season and now he's a guy every team would want.

 

Kipnis is having a better season right now, but not by all that much. It should be the two of them playing 2B at the all-star game this year. (Pedroia is still great too, however) But that's nice company to be in.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The guy has really proven that extension to be a smart thing and steadied his play considerably.  

Like you, I was skeptical of the necessity of the extension but I liked the message it sent to other players: perform and the Twins will take care of you.

 

I'm glad it's working out for everyone involved.

[drjim]

 

Like you, I was skeptical of the necessity of the extension but I liked the message it sent to other players: perform and the Twins will take care of you.

 

I'm glad it's working out for everyone involved.

 

I curious what the 5th year would have cost, but I'm even happy the Twins didn't go crazy too. Seems like a great contract all around.

[blindeke]

Why does everyone call it a "long-term deal" or an "extension" when they didn't get any extra years of team control?

[Parker Hageman]

 

Hopefully Dozier's success can make people stop thinking so negatively of 4-year college seniors and realize that yeah, maybe they'll be a little older than the competition until they get to AA, but anything can happen. 

 

I first had Dozier on a podcast late in his Minor League Hitter of the Year season between Ft. Myers and New Britain. It was in talking to him that I could tell he was going to be special. Very thoughtful. Very smart. Works really hard. Quiet. Focused. But also really talented. 

 

Every time I go into the Twins clubhouse, he'll come over and pat me on the back and ask how I'm doing, how things are. We'll chat for 10 minutes about baseball or just about other things. This is a really great human being, and for me, it's fun to see him taking off into stardom!

 

Sick "I go into the Twins clubhouse" brag.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why does everyone call it a "long-term deal" or an "extension" when they didn't get any extra years of team control?

Semantics. Both are technically correct in a manner of speaking.

 

Brian Dozier was not under contract with the Twins. He was under team control but the contract is year-to-year through arbitration years. So, technically both are correct. Maybe not the most perfect terminology but everybody understands what we're talking about.

[70charger]

Looks like you got a shout-out on ESPN: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/59843/appreciating-brian-doziers-first-half

 

Nice work.