The Path to the Majors

[mk]

It seems like Chattanooga is full of top prospects having strong seasons at the AA level and they are, on occasion, being called up to Minnesota (Buxton, Polanco). But, once they arrive in Minnesota, I hear about them being "rushed" because they didn't spend any time at AAA and that there is such a HUGE difference in the level of play. 

 

My question is, who are the prospects at AAA and are they good enough to stand in the way of Sano, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, or Walker when it seems that these guys are ready for the next challenge? And, people (Molitor) are talking about Sano being close to MLB. Is there really no room at AAA to take that next step, instead of a giant leap to the Majors?

 

 

[drjim]

Big debate on the necessity of AAA for hitting prospects. AA pitchers generally have better stuff/velo, AAA generally have better polish but less stuff. AAA is more a holding area for MLB depth, AA has the prospects. Difference between AA and AAA is minimal if actually anything.

 

To answer your question - no one in AAA is blocking the big prospects in AA, but it is not clear the Twins want those prospects in AAA, or if their lack of AAA experience is preventing them from getting the call to the majors at the moment.

[mk]

I'm not sure I buy it. Yes, it's been done. But I think it's the exception vs. the rule. Mike Trout. Bryce Harper, Wil Myers, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor... All spent time at AAA before getting the call to the majors.

 

Joey Gallo went straight from AA to the Majors... and now from the Majors back to AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not sure I buy it. Yes, it's been done. But I think it's the exception vs. the rule. Mike Trout. Bryce Harper, Wil Myers, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor... All spent time at AAA before getting the call to the majors.

 

Joey Gallo went straight from AA to the Majors... and now from the Majors back to AAA.

Trout took the Gallo path too (AA to MLB back to AAA).

[drjim]

 

Trout took the Gallo path too (AA to MLB back to AAA).

 

Soon to be known as the Buxton and Sano plan too.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Big debate on the necessity of AAA for hitting prospects. AA pitchers generally have better stuff/velo, AAA generally have better polish but less stuff. AAA is more a holding area for MLB depth, AA has the prospects. Difference between AA and AAA is minimal if actually anything.

 

To answer your question - no one in AAA is blocking the big prospects in AA, but it is not clear the Twins want those prospects in AAA, or if their lack of AAA experience is preventing them from getting the call to the majors at the moment.

 

Pretty much this, though I think there's value in AAA in that this polish is something that you can learn from.  Plenty of that in the majors.  But yeah, guys can flat out dominate AAA and then be terrible in the majors.  It happens all the time, though I think the Billy Beane philosophy here is probably more true than we like to admit (i.e., no such thing as AAAA players, just guys who need more time to figure it out).

 

As for who comes up, I think need is a huge factor.  That's why Buxton is up right now and Sano isn't.  Pedigree helps too.  There's a lot of things that don't show up in the stat lines that can help as well.  ABW is a decent example here.  He's likely to benefit more from spending a year at each level then a guy like Sano who has a much better approach at the plate. 

[ExpectMorePayLess]

 

As for who comes up, I think need is a huge factor.  That's why Buxton is up right now and Sano isn't.  Pedigree helps too.  There's a lot of things that don't show up in the stat lines that can help as well.  ABW is a decent example here.  He's likely to benefit more from spending a year at each level then a guy like Sano who has a much better approach at the plate. 

 

As we assess Walker's path of year to year promotions - How has that worked in his path of development?  For many - It hasn't shown any rewards.  (Still Poor approach / No adjustments / High SO numbers).  Maybe a mid season promotion would allow for a prospect to prepare for a return to that level the following year.  Similar to what we expect from a September Call Up.  Learned experience to carry over into the off season for young players.  

 

How does that year to year promotion help you to experience new levels of pitching (Low A to High A) (High A to AA) and (AA to AAA)?  What you learned all year at one level does not prepare you for success at the next level.  The next level prepares you for success at the next level.  That is why prospects receive September call ups and mid season minor league promotions.  Walker deserves that promotion!  Don't make him learn from scratch all over again next spring.  Provide him some recall for the off season preparation.

[nicksaviking]

I still think it's all a conspiracy. The Twins go out of their way to not give Rochester any prospects because they sell Yankee gear in their gift shop.

[Rosterman]

AA still have guys relying on their natural gifts, and if they have achieved AA their chances of making it to the majors are ... well getting better and better. SO many stall in the lower A's. If they can't cut it at AA, then go backwards.

 

AAA has guys that rely a bit more on tricks and guts and hope to get back into the majors. The pitchers may actually throw 3-4 different pitches. You might have better travel, food, bigger crowds. The coaches may be more seasoned. 

 

You have to remember that as a player advances thru the different levels, they play primarily with guys their own ages in A ball and below. You see many college draftees starting at High-A, or even AA now. But it is the age factor. Playing with guys at the same skill set level. You egt a few older guys at AA, but the majority of the fellows playing MAY have a good chance of making the step towards the majors. AAA are guys who can't quite stay there, but are trying ahrd to keep their jobs and dreams alive as the youngsters come up behind them.

 

As for the Twins, Rochester has Rogers, Dean and Peavy there now, Berros repalcing Wheeler, and Duffy showing signs of promise. They have Achter and Tonkin closing games, buck Zach Jones is at Chattanooga. There is no first baseman. Michael is at second with the Lookouts and should repalce Beresford or Martinez. Palenco is at shortstop and should repalce Berrier. Sano is at third and should replace Wheeler, who should be playing first rather than Hanson. Arcia is in the outfield, but Harrison is at Chattanooga. There is noc enterfielder, unless you call Eric Farris the guy. Kepler should advance. Walker should be taking the palce of Rodriguez or Ramirez. We already have Ortiz at Rochester who can DH with Arcia. Catching is the problem. Turner is not shoiwg much at Chattanooga, but let's advance him anyways. Paulino and Fryer are at Rochester. If we have a catching or casuality at 1st base, we are stuck with Herrmann or Vargas!

 

The Twins have signed a lot of guys. There could be movement with many AAA guys getting the pink slip, if everyone can suddenly egt healthy. Oh there;s also WImmers showing some life and Bazxendale, but picture them staying all season at AA. Cole Johnson has alraedy gone to Rochester. Chargolis could also advance another step. Sadly, Reed and Burdi and kinda stuck for the season. See them remaining off the 40-man into next season, for now.

 

 

[stringer bell]

The Lookouts won the first half of the season, so it seems to me that most of the guys who are excelling should move up to Rochester at some point, with the possible exception of Walker.  Of course, Berrios is already at Rochester, so that leaves Polanco, Kepler, Sano, and Walker who all should move up and most of whom could get some playing time in Minneapolis at least by September.

[lightfoot789]

 

The Lookouts won the first half of the season, so it seems to me that most of the guys who are excelling should move up to Rochester at some point, with the possible exception of Walker.  Of course, Berrios is already at Rochester, so that leaves Polanco, Kepler, Sano, and Walker who all should move up and most of whom could get some playing time in Minneapolis at least by September.

 

I agree that all the above named individuals have earned a promotion.  Polanco needs to be challenged more.  Kepler is eating up AA pitching and should be tested more in AAA.  Sano is in beast mode sense late May and needs to be tested in AAA or at the MLB level for a Joey Gallo cup of coffee.  Walker leads all of minor league baseball in HRs (23) and 2nd in all of minor league baseball in RBI (67).  He has a .940 OPS and a .340 ISO.  Despite the SO's , he needs to be tested as well in AAA.  

[nicksaviking]

I wonder if there is any kind of organizational preference at play here as to whom the club wants managing the young guys.  Quade was a high profile get for the minor leagues and he was given the more promenant AAA gig.  However, I wonder if the club still thinks Mientkiewicz is the better guy to raise the majority of the youngsters.

[drjim]

 

I wonder if there is any kind of organizational preference at play here as to whom the club wants managing the young guys.  Quade was a high profile get for the minor leagues and he was given the more promenant AAA gig.  However, I wonder if the club still thinks Mientkiewicz is the better guy to raise the majority of the youngsters.

 

Haven't the Twins also had a tendency to keep groups of prospects together, develop a winning culture. 

 

Don't know if this makes a difference in development or not.

[jokin]

 

Haven't the Twins also had a tendency to keep groups of prospects together, develop a winning culture. 

 

Don't know if this makes a difference in development or not.

 

Continuity with the core group of prospects is undoubtedly a big factor.  Also, Dougie probably still prefers the closer proximity to Miami offered by Chattanooga, given his family situation.  I think the Twins hedged their bets well in the Quade hire.  I'd have to think that the Marlins go after Dougie in the offseason.