Article: Guys, You Weren't Supposed To Be This Good

[Twins Fan From Afar]

What a strange season. I didn't think the Twins would be playing decent baseball as the calendar switched to July. I didn't think that Byron Buxton would be up, after his essentially lost 2014 season. I didn't think Trevor May would be (as of late) the team's most dominant starting pitcher. And I sure didn't think this proverbial ragtag bunch of misfits would -- if the season ended today -- be a wild card contending team.I thought 2015 would be the season where players like Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Kennys Vargas, Trevor May, Danny Santana, and Alex Meyer would get extended opportunities to figure it out by playing games that, after May or June, really didn't matter. You know -- let them take the Rochester shuttle, figure out the league, and hopefully come back ready to contribute in 2016, when players like Buxton, Miguel Sano and Jose Berrios were ready to join the team.

 

But here we are. As it turns out, games in July will matter. It will matter this season whether Trevor May can be the reliable starter we want him to be; it will matter whether Kennys Vargas can hit consistently enough to stay in the lineup and contribute to a winning team. I don't think this team can keep this pace for the rest of the season, but they don't have to, in order for things to get interesting. The trade deadline is just over five weeks away, and if the Twins somehow stay within a few games of that last wild card spot, I really wonder what will happen.

 

The decent play and the current standings put the front office in a potentially interesting position. After four awful, awful seasons, the organization can hardly sit idly by if the team has another good few weeks and stays in the hunt. There are places for improvement -- bullpen, shortstop, designated hitter. But there are also guys the Twins drafted, developed, and have shown patience with, that deserve opportunities to succeed, fail, and learn in those positions. Isn't that, after all, a major component of a rebuild?

 

Sure, the best DH on the trade market makes the Twins better for the next three months, but that person does not make the Twins a World Series contender, or, perhaps, even likely to win the AL Central. And while that guy gets the at-bats, Vargas, and even Miguel Sano (who should be up relatively soon) sit and gather dust -- or at the very least, don't improve.

 

Last season especially, I loved to criticize Terry Ryan. It was easy. Low-hanging fruit sometimes. And Gardy. But I'm honestly not sure what buttons Terry Ryan should press this July if the team keeps hovering near the wild card, and I'm not sure how much Paul Molitor should press Ryan. I firmly believe that the organization owes -- yes, owes -- the fans something after the last four miserable seasons, and after ownership admitted not pushing enough in "the good years." But this is certainly not the year to go all-in -- to trade good or great prospects for a rental player, no matter how good that player is. For better or worse, we all -- fans and organization -- are way too far into this rebuild to scrap important segments of it for an unrealistic pennant chase.

 

Perhaps the best-case scenario is that, over the next month, the Twins slowly but steadily fall out of the wild card race. 2015 will still be a vast improvement over 2011-2014, and the rookies can get valuable, (relatively) low-stress experience. But that isn't very satisfying, is it? I want this team to keep it up. For the love of God, I want Mike Pelfrey to be the best pitcher in the American League, and I want Alex Meyer to come out of nowhere and become a great set-up man. I guess I want this raw, strange team to force Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor to get creative. Find out a way (not just Alex Meyer and Miguel Sano) to improve this team without sacrificing the future. Potentially a tough task, but it would be nice to have confidence in the front office once again.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

Completely agree.  My heart says play for 2015, but my head says play for 2016. I'm going with my head.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Tough needle to thread. You cannot go half hearted if you are in contention into July. But I agree that you don't give away the farm for a (potentially) long shot pennant chase. Let's hope TR can get it right. I still think we need to admit they have a legitimate chance to make a run in 2015 and not take that chance lightly since it might not present itself again anytime in the near future.

[Thegrin]

to get something we have to give something... and the thought of giving up any of our precious prospects makes me cringe... I would be much happier to keep who we have, add Sano and hope for the best.  

[jimbo92107]

I would much rather see the team continue with these rookie callups than to trade away promising mid- or upper-level guys from the system to bolster a dubious run at the playoffs.

 

Last four years, we joked about how many variables had to go right for the Twins to look respectable. That included stuff like, 'If Gibson shines, or May shines, or Pelfrey shines, or Vargas catches fire,' etc. We were all hoping that Joe Mauer would magically develop a power swing like Adrian Gonzalez. We were hoping Alex Meyer would be the next Justin Verlander.

 

Of course, almost none of it turned out the way we hoped. Guys got hurt, or failed, or got suspended, and Mauer still hits flat line drives. He tried half a season to pull and elevate, and all he did was top a bunch of grounders to second. Gotta step in when you pull the ball, Joe, or you'll top it.

 

Now the needle of overall progress has slowly edged above the mediocrity line, so naturally we all want more. However, this team could collapse. It's not robust enough to weather a couple injuries to a couple starters, much less Brian Dozier, the lynchpin of this team.

 

Therefore, this year and the next couple years should be thought of as transition years, not pennant years. Now is the time to give untested rookies a taste of the bigs, and see what goes wrong, which it will. We see that Buxton needs to wear hand protection on the bases, and he needs to learn to hit more difficult stuff. We see Alex Meyer still has control problems, tho his first outing should be dismissed as nerves. He's not going to be Justin Verlander, but he might be dominant in his own way, eventually. We see a steady, reliable pro in Eddie Rosario, and genuine promise in Danny Santana. We see possible mid-rotation stalwarts in Gibson and May. We see a possible future superstar power hitter in Vargas.

 

However, there is still a lot of volatility in these guys. Santana tends to ride himself, so can get discouraged and in a funk. Vargas, same thing. Buxton needs Judo lessons, so he learns to avoid smashing into things and breaking himself. May is doing really well, but will one embarrassing outing injure his confidence? Is Meyer ready to enjoy pro baseball, or is he dreading his next outing?

 

This team is building a very talented core, but it's still far too prone to slumps and wild pitches to consider it a serious contender for a playoff run. This is no finely tuned Cardinals or star-chocked Dodgers. This Twins team features some future stars that currently are flailing at sucker pitches, grounding into double plays and running into walls.

 

If the young guys survive and learn from these minor disasters, in a few years we could be looking at quite a baseball team. Meanwhile, let's enjoy the Twins for what they are, but not pretend they're ready to conquer the best teams in the majors.

[HitInAPinch]

I think the Twins should continue the auditioning of their MiLB prospects.  You gotta find out if they're for real at some point.

[by jiminy]

I'd stay the course. Rebuild. They're not there yet.

 

Even when they were winning they had below overage offense and below average pitching. They just tended to hit them in bunches, concealing the over-all numbers. Now, they are still above .500, but  they've given up more runs than they've scored. 

 

If a few players caught fire and led another winning streak, I'd consider them real contenders.  But Buxton didn't give them that kind of a lift, and now he's injured.  Torii did for a while, but now he's fading.  Vargas may be the next Big Papi, but he sure isn't yet.  Mauer is having his worst year ever.  Their two hot shortstops from last year are combining to be among the worst in the league this year.  They have a great second basemen, but that's about it.

 

The team's best hitter is hitting .269.  The next to are at .259 and .258.   (And no, seeing their OPS wouldn't cheer you up. I don't usually look at BA either, but it's what pops up on the first page of the official team site under team leaders.  You see that and you go, oh. Yeah.)

 

I think this team is exciting because of its future. 

 

Vargas may or may not hit this year, but between him, Arcia, and Sano, there's definite hope at DH. 

 

Hicks may or may not hit this year, but between him, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, there's definite hope for the outfield.

 

Santana may or may not hit this year, but between him, Escobar, and Polanco, there's definite hope at shortstop.

 

Between Plouffe and Sano, there's more than hope at third, there's genunie confidence.

 

At second, even more so! Dozier is playing like an all-star.

 

At first, I consider Mauer to be as good a candidate as any for a real breakout, I really do.  He was too good, too long, to give up on.  I suspect teh effects of his concussion are just not gone yet.  But if Morneau came back, why can't Mauer?

 

And they finally have numbers are starting pitching to ensure they'll never be throwing out AAA pitchers multiple times again in the rotation (as opposed to AAAA pitchers, or better yet genuine prospects, or actual qualified veterans, which they have now in abundance).

 

It's a fun, exciting team. But it's not one to sell out the future for the present on. The best shot in the arm they could get would be to promote somebody and strike gold. So, try out Buxton, try out Meyer, and if they don't work, try out Sano and Jay and Kepler and Arcia and Polanco.  If they're not ready, chalk it up to experience.  If they bloom, great, enjoy the ride.  But don't mortgage the future for a short term rental, unless to supplement some future stars who have blossomed early. And I dont see that yet.

 

[Brandon]

I think most of the improvements for this year will come from the farm. I don't think the Twins should trade a lot of prospects for a run this year though a few couldn't hurt depending on which prospects and who they get.

 

Suppose they trade for a SS or dominant set up guy using Duffey, Eades, or one of our reliever prospects? we have lots of pitching and I don't advocate giving up prospects giving up one or two in an area where we have an embarrassment of a surplus is alright with me.

[Linus]

I am not against a trade to help this year but only if it helps long term as well. Catcher would come to mind as well as SS.

[highlander]

If they could get somebody in Troy Tulowitzki's class and signed to a multi year deal for... IDK Pelfrey, Hicks, Santana and Pinto. I say roll with it. There is definitely a core of players I wouldn't trade though. Or something similar.

[stocker08]

If we continue as actual contenders........I wouldn't be against making some moves.  Of course........I'd never be on board with shipping out any of our blue-chip prospects.

[drjim]

A charge and expectation this vague leaves plenty of opportunity to be critical no matter what they do.

 

I would personally add a bullpen arm and that's about it. Maybe a corner of/dh rental if all the young guys flop (and probably still not if the cost is more than money). A ss or c is pie in the sky based on cost and risk/reward.

[USAFChief]

A catcher is needed whether its now or down the road.

 

Be bold Terry. Make some moves to turn some of that magic pixie dust, otherwise known as "prospects", into actual big league talent. Shock us all, and take a chance. Do what it takes to get Lucroy, add a legit late inning reliever. Find a bat.

 

Do something. Waiting around, doing nothing, and expecting things to get better by themselves seldom works out.

[Boom Boom]

Whatever they do, I don't want to see them go at it halfway.

 

If TR thinks they have a shot, that's great. Go out and find a catcher and some bullpen help.

 

If he doesn't think they have a shot, trade Pelfrey. Trade Suzuki as well if you can get anything potentially helpful.

[Danchat]

I don't agree with trading for a SS. I think Santana or Polanco will step up and take hold eventuallyl

 

I do agree with upgrading the C position. We have a below-average veteran with few prospects on the horizon. 

 

And, of course, fix that bullpen. Please.

[formerly33]

While I agree that we need to upgrade our catcher, I don't think it's necessary to bring in from without the organization ... yet. I'm loving Eric Fryer's performance in Rochester. Why don't we call him up? He may not be the catcher of the future, but he could be the answer to 2015's problems behind the plate.

[Loosey]

I think what this unexpected winning may do is force the Twins to decide which prospects are really and realistically a part of the future. (if they want to make some sort of deadline trade).  Is Arcia really a part of the future now what about Pinto.  Those two are guys who have played for the big club and have had successes and failures yet are still back in AAA.  Other players like them as well could be dangled if they want to improve this years team without hindering future teams.

[Loosey]

 

 

A catcher is needed whether its now or down the road.

Be bold Terry. Make some moves to turn some of that magic pixie dust, otherwise known as "prospects", into actual big league talent. Shock us all, and take a chance. Do what it takes to get Lucroy, add a legit late inning reliever. Find a bat.

Do something. Waiting around, doing nothing, and expecting things to get better by themselves seldom works out.

Any trade for a Lucroy type will take a lot of "pixie dust"  But if they do make trades it should be for guys with some years still left on their contract.

[nicksaviking]

If it's me, I'm playing for the future and I'm not making moves that do any kind of harm to that vision.

 

Still, there are too many corner OF/IF types on the farm, some have to be moved or they'll just fade away without getting a shot.  However I don't want these guys traded for veterans on dumb contracts.  Young, cheap catcher, SS or fireballing RP? Sure, maybe.  Don't go and get more 30+ year-olds on multi-year deals though.

[jorgenswest]

Lucroy probably not available

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/whos-available-and-whos-not-from-the-brewers-b99526821z1-310376871.html

[dxpavelka]

 

I would much rather see the team continue with these rookie callups than to trade away promising mid- or upper-level guys from the system to bolster a dubious run at the playoffs.

 

Last four years, we joked about how many variables had to go right for the Twins to look respectable. That included stuff like, 'If Gibson shines, or May shines, or Pelfrey shines, or Vargas catches fire,' etc. We were all hoping that Joe Mauer would magically develop a power swing like Adrian Gonzalez. We were hoping Alex Meyer would be the next Justin Verlander.

 

Of course, almost none of it turned out the way we hoped. Guys got hurt, or failed, or got suspended, and Mauer still hits flat line drives. He tried half a season to pull and elevate, and all he did was top a bunch of grounders to second. Gotta step in when you pull the ball, Joe, or you'll top it.

 

Now the needle of overall progress has slowly edged above the mediocrity line, so naturally we all want more. However, this team could collapse. It's not robust enough to weather a couple injuries to a couple starters, much less Brian Dozier, the lynchpin of this team.

 

Therefore, this year and the next couple years should be thought of as transition years, not pennant years.

I can give you this year.  MAYBE next year.  But to say we have to think of more than this year and next as transition years, I can't do.  At some point it's gotta be time to put the big boy pants on and contend young core or not.  Gotta step up.

 

[drjim]

 

Lucroy probably not available

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/whos-available-and-whos-not-from-the-brewers-b99526821z1-310376871.html

 

Just like basically any other decent catcher that people keep coming back to.

[drjim]

 

If it's me, I'm playing for the future and I'm not making moves that do any kind of harm to that vision.

 

Still, there are too many corner OF/IF types on the farm, some have to be moved or they'll just fade away without getting a shot.  However I don't want these guys traded for veterans on dumb contracts.  Young, cheap catcher, SS or fireballing RP? Sure, maybe.  Don't go and get more 30+ year-olds on multi-year deals though.

 

Do you really think these corner OF/IF guys on the farm are actually going to net you a c or ss? Sano maybe, Kepler with some other pieces, but no one else.

[Trevor0333]

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