Article: TD Midseason Top Prospects: #4 Jorge Polanco

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have shuffled a lot of different men through their shortstop position in the last handful of years. Current regulars Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier both came up as shortstops before having to be moved off the position. There have been plenty of other names but the Twins are still searching and hoping for someone to be a long-term solution.

 

After a tremendous rookie campaign, Danny Santana was given the opportunity this year to run with the starting shortstop job. He struggled to start the year and this might have opened the door to some other prospects. Jorge Polanco might be the biggest beneficiary as he makes a big jump in the Twins Daily prospect rankings.Age: 21 (DOB: 7/5/93)

2015 Stats (MLB): .333/.500/.333 (1-for-3, 1B, BB)

(AA): .301/.347/.414, 12 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR

ETA: 2015

2014 Preseason Rank: 8, 2015 Preseason Rank: 7

 

What's To Like

Polanco just keeps getting better and he's been able to make those improvements while consistently moving through the Twins system. This didn't happen overnight as he struggled through two stints in the Gulf Coast League. Polanco emerged as an offensive threat in 2012 with Elizabethton where he hit .318/.388/.514 with 22 extra-base hits. Since that time he has been a vital part of some power-packed lineups in Cedar Rapids, Fort Myers, New Britain, and Chattanooga.

 

He's been called up to the big leagues multiple times in the last of couple years and he became the first player since Kent Hrbek to make the jump from High-A to the MLB. With current call-ups like Byron Buxton on the roster, the Twins have made it clear that they are only going to bring up young players that have the maturity and poise to handle the situation. Polanco demonstrates these qualities.

 

What's Left To Work On

Polanco has moved around the diamond on the defensive side of the ball. The Twins signed him as a shortstop but he played a lot of second base in the early part of his career. At the start of the 2014 season, the Twins organization decided to let Polanco play shortstop on a more consistent basis. That season was a little rough as he was charged with 35 errors in 540 chances (.935 fielding percentage). This season has gone marginally better as he committed 14 errors over 236 chances (.941 fielding percentage).

 

The Lookouts have consistently used Polanco near the top of the order so it would be nice to see him continue to refine his approach to accumulate more walks. He has a .350 OBP for his career but that number is a little over 60 points higher than his batting average. If he wants to be near the top of the order at baseball's highest level, he's going to need to continue to improve in the walk department.

 

What's Next

Twins fans have already seen Polanco at the big league level this year. It was a brief trip but it was still another glimpse of what's to come. There have been some good signs from Polanco this year at Double-A as well. With 14 steals already, he's well on his way to surpassing his career high of 17 steals in 2014.

 

Polanco seems very close to becoming a regular at the big league level. He's a multifaceted prospect with good defensive ability, including a rocket arm. As he's moved through the system, he's shown the ability to improve offensively,. adding a little pop to his bat. None of his tools are elite but he has the ability to be a major league starter for years to come.

 

As the Twins turn over the reins to the youth movement, Polanco seems destined to be Brian Dozier's double play partner for at least the next couple of seasons. His stock is rising fast and the Twins might be close to cashing in on their investment.

TD Top Prospect #10 - Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospect #9 - Max Kepler

TD Top Prospect #8 - Eddie Rosario

TD Top Prospect #7 - Nick Gordon

TD Top Prospect #6 - Stephen Gonsalves

TD Top Prospect #5 - Tyler Jay

 

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[drock2190]

Rocket arm??

 

I thought his arm was so-so, making him tough to stick at shortstop long term

[nater79a]

 

Rocket arm??

I thought his arm was so-so, making him tough to stick at shortstop long term

 

He's had some issues with accuracy on throws to first. But his bat will play well at the MLB level so the Twins need to find a spot for him.

[Cast of Thousands]

 

Rocket arm??

I thought his arm was so-so, making him tough to stick at shortstop long term

That confused me too.  So what is the real story?  Great arm, more than enough to stick at SS?  Or not exactly, and a better fit for 2B?

 

Love the potential with the bat, just hope there's a position for him sooner than later where he can contribute with the Twins.

[Linus]

His throwing is an issue and seems to be due to arm strength. He also has to clean up his fielding before he will succeed in the majors.

[Platoon]

The errors and FP are almost identical, I think Sanatana has better range, and quite a bit better arm. Hitting is, or could be the difference.

[diehardtwinsfan]

wonder what makes more sense... letting Polanco stay at SS or moving Dozier back to SS and letting Polcano play 2nd.  Polanco isn't going to be a defensive whiz at SS, and may not be one 2nd either...

[HitInAPinch]

 

wonder what makes more sense... letting Polanco stay at SS or moving Dozier back to SS and letting Polcano play 2nd.  Polanco isn't going to be a defensive whiz at SS, and may not be one 2nd either...

I don't think moving any established MLB player to another position for Polanco would make a lot of sense.  Especially since the Twins moved Dozier off SS, possibly because they thought he couldn't handle it.  Twins management seem to be locked in on D. Santana as the SS of the future.  I'd still like to see him in CF.  Buxton still gets at least another week audition. 

[HitInAPinch]

In the brief stints that he's been in the MLB, I think he's acquitted himself very well.  I thought that was all at 2B, but Baseball Reference says SS. 

 

Oh, to hear Jim Kaat say "San Pedro de Macoris" just one more time

Edited June 26, 2015 by HitInAPinch

[Mike Sixel]

I have mild doubts about him at SS......and Dozier is at 2B. Is he more valuable for the Twins as a trade piece, maybe for a catcher?

[troyhobbs]

So who is the future at SS, Santana or Polanco? Seems like 1 of them should make nice trade bait. I'd probably keep Polanco.

[Steve Lein]

Apparently every guy in the system has a "rocket arm"? 

 

Santana has a rocket arm. Polanco's is pretty average for a SS. I haven't seen anyone put a grade better than 50 on him for his arm.

 

It's good to see him at #4 though, I think he's been very underrated, or overlooked maybe, with everyone else in the system. He gets it done.

[nicksaviking]

I kind of think SS arm strength is a little over-rated, mostly because even on the few occasions where the additional velocity actually will get the out, all we're talking about is an infield hit or possibly not getting the back end of a double play.  An outfielder with a weak arm might let a guy get to 2nd, 3rd or score.  An infielder with a weak arm, in almost all scenarios, is giving up what amounts to a walk.  I'd guess a pitcher who has a 3.5 BB/9 as opposed to a pitcher who has a 2.5 BB/9 would end up allowing more baserunners than a SS with a below average arm. 

 

And I don't get too riled up over a 3.5 BB/9.

 

Of course I'm talking about arm strength; accuracy is a different scenario.

[Vance_Christianson]

Neither should be the Twins Future SS IMO. Santana is having some plate issues, and average defense. Polanco is avg-above avg offense with terrible defense.

 

I'd be looking to trade 1 or the other along with Pelfrey and another prospect for a proven SS! We can't keep changing our SS every other game, and different batting lineups every other game.

 

Consistency wins, and since the injury bug hit us about a month ago, our record has showed us just that. If we don't trade for a SS, then bring up Polanco, and lets roll with him as our "everyday" SS!!!

 

[TRex]

 

I kind of think SS arm strength is a little over-rated, mostly because even on the few occasions where the additional velocity actually will get the out, all we're talking about is an infield hit or possibly not getting the back end of a double play.  An outfielder with a weak arm might let a guy get to 2nd, 3rd or score.  An infielder with a weak arm, in almost all scenarios, is giving up what amounts to a walk.  I'd guess a pitcher who has a 3.5 BB/9 as opposed to a pitcher who has a 2.5 BB/9 would end up allowing more baserunners than a SS with a below average arm. 

 

And I don't get too riled up over a 3.5 BB/9.

 

Of course I'm talking about arm strength; accuracy is a different scenario.

Don't forget that the SS is also the primary relay person for runners advancing to 3rd or home. I guess this might not be a big problem with an outfield of Buxton, Hicks and Rosario; but we may need a third relay if we re-acquire Ben Revere!

[Willihammer]

 

I kind of think SS arm strength is a little over-rated, mostly because even on the few occasions where the additional velocity actually will get the out, all we're talking about is an infield hit or possibly not getting the back end of a double play.  An outfielder with a weak arm might let a guy get to 2nd, 3rd or score.  An infielder with a weak arm, in almost all scenarios, is giving up what amounts to a walk.  I'd guess a pitcher who has a 3.5 BB/9 as opposed to a pitcher who has a 2.5 BB/9 would end up allowing more baserunners than a SS with a below average arm. 

 

And I don't get too riled up over a 3.5 BB/9.

 

Of course I'm talking about arm strength; accuracy is a different scenario.

On the other hand the batters who should benefit most from a fringy arm are your Lorenzo Cain, Adam Eaton rabbit types. Guys you really want to keep of the bases. Still, it does seem like our understanding of the exact value of SS arm strength, and really shortstop defense in general, is lagging. Can't wait for more Statcast data to compile and enlighten us.

[drjim]

 

Neither should be the Twins Future SS IMO. Santana is having some plate issues, and average defense. Polanco is avg-above avg offense with terrible defense.

 

I'd be looking to trade 1 or the other along with Pelfrey and another prospect for a proven SS! We can't keep changing our SS every other game, and different batting lineups every other game.

 

Consistency wins, and since the injury bug hit us about a month ago, our record has showed us just that. If we don't trade for a SS, then bring up Polanco, and lets roll with him as our "everyday" SS!!!

 

If there is one thing teams are looking to trade it is proven SS. I hope that unnamed prospect you mention is Sano or Berrios.

[drjim]

 

I kind of think SS arm strength is a little over-rated, mostly because even on the few occasions where the additional velocity actually will get the out, all we're talking about is an infield hit or possibly not getting the back end of a double play.  An outfielder with a weak arm might let a guy get to 2nd, 3rd or score.  An infielder with a weak arm, in almost all scenarios, is giving up what amounts to a walk.  I'd guess a pitcher who has a 3.5 BB/9 as opposed to a pitcher who has a 2.5 BB/9 would end up allowing more baserunners than a SS with a below average arm. 

 

And I don't get too riled up over a 3.5 BB/9.

 

Of course I'm talking about arm strength; accuracy is a different scenario.

 

I think this is something that theoretically sounds good but works out much worse in reality. I think you are talking about more than a "few" occasions.

[DocBauer]

Shaking my head a bit.

 

What I DONT know: How good Polanco can actually be. And except for a few innings, what he looks like on a consistent basis. How unforced or correctable his errors are.

 

What I DO Know, or THINK I know: Polanco was signed as a SS, a GLOVE MAN, not as an offensive player. In fact, when signed, the talk was about defense and speed with his bat questionable. Kid has turned out to have a quality bat, with pop, ability to hit for average, and a knack for the big hit. He's done so well at it, that he keeps getting dropped from the 2 hole in the order to the 3 spot. And he shows the potential to be even better!

 

I also know that with very, very little exception, I have never seen a quality SS, even a future Gold Glover, not struggle with some errors, not only in the minors, but in the majors as well. Deal with it, it's reality.

 

Santana has a ton of ability if he can harness it. If he can't, he has a chance to still be solid, and useful, and potentially a quality LF who can also help in CF and SS. 2B?

 

Polanco seems more smooth, more natural in what he does. I absolutely, positively would not give up on Santana, (unless traded of course), but I would also not wait too long to give Polanco a REAL CHANCE to show what he can do, not just a game or two. He just might be a viable, long term solution at SS. What are the Twins afraid of at this point?

[blairpaul715]

Dozier for Addison Russell, and move Polanco to 2nd. If the Cubs would do that.

Edited June 27, 2015 by blairpaul715

[Ncgo4]

I've watched Polanco on TV quite a bit. He certainly appears to me to have a rocket arm without question. The issue is, what direction is he going to throw it? Several errors I've seen he's thrown the ball away, way away, and the throw has sailed past the first baseman with the runner still 2 or 3 steps from the bag.

[drjim]

 

Dozier for Addison Russell, and move Polanco to 2nd. If the Cubs would do that.

 

They would.

[blairpaul715]

 

They would.

So you think Dozier is worth a former top 5 prospect??? Dang, if that is or were true , i would do it.........would you give up Sano for for Starlin Castro??

[drjim]

 

So you think Dozier is worth a former top 5 prospect??? Dang, if that is or were true , i would do it.........would you give up Sano for for Starlin Castro??

 

I wouldn't give up Dozier for Castro.

 

EDIT: But it would be close. I would consider Sano for Castro or a similar player. I'm just not a huge fan of Castro relative to his value so I'm probably the wrong person to ask.

Edited June 27, 2015 by drjim

[blairpaul715]

 

I wouldn't give up Dozier for Castro.

 

EDIT: But it would be close. I would consider Sano for Castro or a similar player. I'm just not a huge fan of Castro relative to his value so I'm probably the wrong person to ask.

I kind of agree with you , i am not a fan of Castro either, but I think most non biased people would trade Dozier for Castro, IMO.................. but if i had the chance, i would love to see Russell at SS and Polanco at 2nd.

[kab21]

Castro is good but I am not trading a player of Sano's potential for a Castro level player.  Sano might bust but I will take that risk.

[drjim]

 

Castro is good but I am not trading a player of Sano's potential for a Castro level player.  Sano might bust but I will take that risk.

 

I agree on Castro specifically, but a an above average SS in their prime with 4 years of control left seems like a pretty good value for Sano.

[drivlikejehu]

Castro has been below replacement level for 2 out of the last 3 years. He stinks.

[drjim]

 

Castro has been below replacement level for 2 out of the last 3 years. He stinks.

 

Very likely, can't say I looked at him very deeply when I was responding to that hypothetical. But I would keep the bigger point that the Cubs would flip Russell for Dozier and I would trade Sano for an above average SS in their prime with 4 years of control.

 

I don't think the Twins are trading Dozier and I'm skeptical that Polanco can stick at SS. Certainly worth taking the time to figure that out though. And if not, he could be pretty good trade bait, either for an elite rental (not this year) or a solid player at a different position of need, or as part of a bigger trade.

[jimbo92107]

This year, and the next two years after that are when the Twins need to find where the top prospects and surprise overachievers fit into the contending teams of 2018 and beyond. That's why experiments like bringing up Jorge Polanco don't bother me, and shouldn't bother anybody else around here.

 

At TD we love to speculate how this or that guy would fit in this or that position. Now's the time to start finding out for real. We should also realize that more unexpected things could happen. Polanco could flop at SS, or fail to hit. Santana could get hot at the plate, or start "figuring it out." More likely we'll continue to see the same kind of oscillations that are common for young players as they test out ways to deal with playing at the highest level.

 

Terry Ryan realizes this, of course. Clearly he's looking for reasons to call up Polanco, Sano, etc. But we should all keep in mind that the long-term plan for this team is still more important than our immediate gratification. Plus, Ryan doesn't want to disrupt a surprisingly good season with a team slump caused by a bunch of rookies flailing at sucker pitches (Buxton, Vargas, Santana), getting hurt because they don't know how to protect themselves (Buxton), making tons of embarrassing errors (Polanco?), or pipelining BP fastballs because they have no command (Meyer). I put a question mark beside Polanco because we don't know he's going to look like a shaky rookie at SS. Maybe he'll look really good, like he did late last season.

 

BTW, notice I didn't mention Rosario in the rookie problems department? He doesn't play like a rookie. He plays more like Dozier. Still working on stuff, but right there in the game mentally. He's not afraid of anything, but like Dozier, he plays within himself. Eddie's going to be very, very good.

Edited June 28, 2015 by jimbo92107