Attention Mauer Haters!

[mnfireman]

These same guys would bash Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn, to name a few, because they would have gotten "Mauer Money" if they played today but "don't hit for power." Pretty sure their career OPS's were above league average over their careers.

[jokin]

If I may stick my nose in as well, I actually agree with a lot of what both RP and jokin have to say here.

 

Certainly, as jokin said, some guys just seem to have that knack for playing their best when the stakes are highest. The only quibble I have, and maybe I'm picking nits here, is calling it a "trait" - that makes it sounds like an "either you were born with it or you weren't" kind of thing, and I'm not sure it's an either/or. It may come more naturally to some guys than others, but it's not like guys who have never displayed it will never have it. Isn't it something guys can improve on with experience? To take an example from another sport - look at Steve Yzerman. For much of his early career, he was maligned as a guy who put up big numbers in the regular season but disappeared in the playoffs and failed to lead his team when it mattered most. He was almost traded because of this. But several years and 3 Stanley Cups later, his ability to step up in crunch time was beyond question, and the idea that he lacked guts seems ludicrous.

 

But like RP said, I also think that the whole "clutch player" thing can be overblown, and guys get lauded as "clutch" or branded as "choke artists" when there is little behind those labels besides the national media's desire to manufacture a story.

 

Anyway, I'm hoping Mauer gets another shot soon, and buries this debate over this just the way Stevie Y did.

Thanks for adding in another sport, I knew there were like-performers in other sports, couldn't come up with the perfect example, fortunately, you did, because I think it isn't sport specific! A more mental game like golf brings up Greg Norman, all the tools, always highly ranked, and the long-time sufferer in being branded by the media as a choker. Cliches like " he must have ice water in his veins" are usually originally grounded in some element of the truth. Terry Bradshow probably had it, he definitely wasn't the best athlete at his position, played at an obscure D-1AA school in Louisiana, but his coaches and teammates soon knew what their leader was capable of doing when big games were on the line. Like LeBron James, and Michael Jordan early in his career, their experience and confidence level grew as they progressed through their careers until they got to the point that they finally answered the question about being able to come through time after time on the biggest stage, so yes, I think it is something they can improve on when it doesn't come as naturally. Few people know how much time Jordan and Mauer spend on honing and refining their skills to make it look so effortless in front of 100 Million people.

 

It may surpirse some, but I wholly agree with you on the "clutch" thing, too, which is why I am not overly enamored with the Jeter media phenomenon. A lot of performance and overperformance appears to be based on motivation levels, which may, or may not be, "clutch". In his autobiography, Bill Russell of the Boston Celtics talked about his legendary battles with Wilt Chamberlain (who was ridiculously tall, strong, agile, skilled, talented and utterly dominating). Russell said the reason the Celtics won all those titles was in how he and the Celtics prepared for Wilt. They made certain to never make him mad or give him any reason to "raise his level of play", something that he was fully capable of doing on any given night. He went on to describe Wilt as usually perfectly happy if his team lost, as long as he got something around his personal averages for the game. He then went on to describe the incredible performances Wilt had when someone or something made him mad. Roger Clemens and Ty Cobb come to mind in that regard, the madder they got, the better they got. Great performances, but not necessarily clutch. My impression is that some guys are just more internally motivated to thrive more when the stakes are higher, not nearly as focused when the stakes are lower and most importantly, less intimidated at the thought of possible failure as the games get more important.

[70charger]

The "clutch" conversation is conditional confusion.

 

If a team did well in a pressure situation, then a player must have come through in the clutch. Don't confuse that which is required for that which is merely sufficient.

[jokin]

Not getting too far into this discussion, but didn't the guys over at ESPN dig into this clutch notion during one of the last two postseasons and found that guys pretty much performed to their regular season standard (be it good or bad) during the postseason? I believe they focused on the Yankees, and found that as their opportunities increased (ie more playoff games) players came around to their usual numbers.

"opportunties increased" also implies valuable experience gained for the next opportunity. There is also the question of the winning mind-set instilled within the Yankee culture, which certainly could be argued is learned expectations and resulting behavior, because if you don't pick up on that, you're gone (ask Carl Pavano).

[jokin]

These same guys would bash Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn, to name a few, because they would have gotten "Mauer Money" if they played today but "don't hit for power." Pretty sure their career OPS's were above league average over their careers.

The only problem with that is that those types of hitters don't get "Mauer Money" Off the top of my head, Ichiro makes only $18 Mil, and part of that is derived from the dollars he generates from his Japanese fan base. Power is worth more $$s.

[fetch]

laughing ridiculously hard at winning mindset

[jokin]

laughing ridiculously hard at winning mindset

...because that isn't what the Yankees expectation is, year-in, year-out? Why do you think they have already publicly hinted that they are taking a pass on Greinke?

[PseudoSABR]

I wonder if we might get somewhere more profitable if we redefined terms. I think clutchiness is too slippery and something evaluators of talent wouldn't know how to identify within the player, but rather clutchiness is created out of specific conditions, conditions so rare that any data set seems untrustiworthy. But with that said, I can completely relate to the notion that what we know about the human condition suggests that there's certainly an element of grace under pressure in all human activities--we can all admit that such notions are abstract and ultimately judged just as abstractly with our intuition rather than our rationale. What I'm wondering precisely, is that rather than argue over the existence of clutchiness, we find common ground, in another abstract concept but one that I believe scouts actually look for. Poise. I think we can agree the concept is easily associated with pitchers. An old Baseball Think Factory article*, lists it among attributes that a pitcher is judged by (including some other slippery concepts like baseball instinct and aggressiveness). I think there's a hitter's counterpart for such a concept that everyone can admit probably affects how a hitter performs. In any case, such attributes are going to be mutable and dictated by conditions larger than the in-the-game situation.

 

While sample size and quantification problems prohibit anyone from "proving" or "establishing" abstract characteristics like poise and clutchiness, I think it's just as silly to assert that such qualities don't exist (or don't affect baseball outcomes) because of they are irreducible and unfungible.

*http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/primate_studies/discussion/mckarmey_2003-07-28_0/ "

Pitchers are graded for fastball velocity, fastball movement, control, curveball, slider, change of pace, "other" pitch, mechanics, poise, baseball instinct, and aggressiveness"

[PseudoSABR]

...because that isn't what the Yankees expectation is, year-in, year-out? Why do you think they have already publicly hinted that they are taking a pass on Greinke?

Look, no one's going to take "winning mindset" as a serious characteristic that people actually possess. I think everyone can agree psychology affects baseball (how could it not?), but you can be much more precise in how you go about identifying such elements. Of course people are going to cynical of concepts that can't be quantified, so you're going to have to be far more convincing than glibly mentioning the Yankees.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Okay, last response. You're missing my point. "Almost always" means that performances are skewed based on the size of the data pool. Given an infinite number of ABs or IP, the player will perform at their regular talent level in clutch situations.

 

That isn't merely supposition or conjecture. It has been proven over and over and over again. There are outliers, yes. But those outliers almost entirely consist of players with such a small data pool as to be unreliable, the same way you don't look outside today, see a 100 degree temperature, and then declare that every day in Minnesota is 100 degrees. That doesn't mean it wasn't 100 degrees, that only means that your data pool is too small to predict or declare something as truth. As those players age and that data pool swells, their clutchiness goes away. Some players never get more opportunities and that's where this myth is born.

 

PS. I'm not talking about other sports. I am limiting this conversation entirely to baseball. I am an avid baseball fan while only a passing fan of other sports. I don't pretend to know enough about playoff clutchiness in other sports to begin to form an opinion on it.

 

pretty much this, though I think you can make a case for people choking in the clutch.

[Guest USAFChief]

I wonder if we might get somewhere more profitable if we redefined terms. I think clutchiness is too slippery and something evaluators of talent wouldn't know how to identify within the player, but rather clutchiness is created out of specific conditions, conditions so rare that any data set seems untrustiworthy. But with that said, I can completely relate to the notion that what we know about the human condition suggests that there's certainly an element of grace under pressure in all human activities--we can all admit that such notions are abstract and ultimately judged just as abstractly with our intuition rather than our rationale. What I'm wondering precisely, is that rather than argue over the existence of clutchiness, we find common ground, in another abstract concept but one that I believe scouts actually look for. Poise. I think we can agree the concept is easily associated with pitchers. An old Baseball Think Factory article*, lists it among attributes that a pitcher is judged by (including some other slippery concepts like baseball instinct and aggressiveness). I think there's a hitter's counterpart for such a concept that everyone can admit probably affects how a hitter performs. In any case, such attributes are going to be mutable and dictated by conditions larger than the in-the-game situation.

 

While sample size and quantification problems prohibit anyone from "proving" or "establishing" abstract characteristics like poise and clutchiness, I think it's just as silly to assert that such qualities don't exist (or don't affect baseball outcomes) because of they are irreducible and unfungible.

*http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/primate_studies/discussion/mckarmey_2003-07-28_0/ "

Pitchers are graded for fastball velocity, fastball movement, control, curveball, slider, change of pace, "other" pitch, mechanics, poise, baseball instinct, and aggressiveness"

 

Nice post, Pseudo.

[fetch]

Look, no one's going to take "winning mindset" as a serious characteristic that people actually possess. I think everyone can agree psychology affects baseball (how could it not?), but you can be much more precise in how you go about identifying such elements. Of course people are going to cynical of concepts that can't be quantified, so you're going to have to be far more convincing than glibly mentioning the Yankees.

Plus most people who can't respond to a high pressure situation are weeded out far before they make the major leagues.

[CDog]

Except in my case, it's not a belief, but a formula, for proven, repeatable success.

Oh. I see.

[CDog]

Did TR crib that from Grantland Rice?

Could be the other way around. The bulk of Rice's work came after Teddy shot off that gem.

[Bark's Lounge]

Average DH probably makes 5 mil. Glad that .7 of OPS is worth 18 mil. What is the combined ops for Butera/Mauer compared to ave C + DH? Ill even let you use Buteras lucky 2012 numbers. One of these days you will realize Joe is killing this franchise.

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[Bark's Lounge]

As of today, Mauer is on pace to catch only 72 games.

 

Doesn't the positional adjustment score skew the WAR number for C relative to 1B? Konerko and Encarnacion are having monster years at the plate and Mauer's offensive numbers are best when he's playing catcher, not so much at 1B/DH.

 

See below:

 

Here are the full FanGraphs positional adjustments used in WAR:

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)

First Base: -12.5 runs

Second Base: +2.5 runs

Third Base: +2.5 runs

Shortstop: +7.5 runs

Left Field: -7.5 runs

Center Field: +2.5 runs

Right Field: -7.5 runs

Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

 

As noted above, these values are calculated on a per 162 defensive game basis, and players receive weighted credit for each position that they play.

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[Bark's Lounge]

Nice to see Iron Joe toughing out another game at catcher tonight! Instead of being an all star catcher we get to watch replacent level DH production earning 23 mil.......at least his replacement is not Butera where we suffer thru hole in the lineup while Joe jokes around on the bench.

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[Riverbrian]

Off Topic: I still think they should move Mauer up in the lineup to give him more at bats.

Span

Mauer

Willingham

Plouffe

Morneau

Doumit

Revere

 

That is a pretty damn solid 1-7.

Mauer would be a perfect 2... I'd move Revere down to the 9 spot to feed the turnaround.

[Riverbrian]

I've been coaching awhile myself and you see exactly what Jokin is talking about in players. When the situation gets tighter. Some players are going to keep their composure and perform more like themselves or elevate. Some players are going to press and change what they normally do or they can't slow down the game because of nerves. It's not a numbers thing to be quantified. It's about good swings and good pitches. Keeping it together to increase your odds. A good swing can be caught and a bad swing can bloop one in. the odds are with the guy who can keep his mechanics or keep his head when every fiber of his being is praying for a hit.

 

With more playoff or pressure experience... More at bats or pitches thrown in pressure situations... In my opinion it would become more routine and less pressure filled as it goes. This is why playoff experience can be valuable and is sought after.

[fetch]

I've been coaching awhile myself and you see exactly what Jokin is talking about in players. When the situation gets tighter. Some players are going to keep their composure and perform more like themselves or elevate. Some players are going to press and change what they normally do or they can't slow down the game because of nerves. It's not a numbers thing to be quantified. It's about good swings and good pitches. Keeping it together to increase your odds. A good swing can be caught and a bad swing can bloop one in. the odds are with the guy who can keep his mechanics or keep his head when every fiber of his being is praying for a hit.

 

 

That's all well and good, but this isn't little league or high school baseball or whatever

[Riverbrian]

That's all well and good, but this isn't little league or high school baseball or whatever

Pressure is Pressure. High school pitcher talent faces high school batter talent. Professional faces professional. It's all the same.

 

It could... And I'm saying could... explain Plouffes performance with Runners on base for example. He could be changing his approach or mindset with the RBI in front of him and he could do it without realizing it and press and he changes his odds with early or late swings or mechanical errors.

 

Overtime he could become more comfortable in his baseball skin and stop pressing in those situations. If thats what he's actually doing.

 

I also do not discount in the case of Plouffe that his solo homer descepency is just coincidence.

[fetch]

Pressure is Pressure.

If a player is THAT affected by pressure to where you change your mechanics and stuff he wouldn't be in the major leagues. It's total nonsense to give that kind of thinking any credibility

[Guest USAFChief]

If a player is THAT affected by pressure to where you change your mechanics and stuff he wouldn't be in the major leagues. It's total nonsense to give that kind of thinking any credibility

I think it's total nonsense to assume that reaching the major leagues makes you immune to pressure. Could be, but they'd be probably the only people in the world, in any profession, immune to pressure.

[Riverbrian]

If a player is THAT affected by pressure to where you change your mechanics and stuff he wouldn't be in the major leagues. It's total nonsense to give that kind of thinking any credibility

Players change mechanics without knowing it in times of no pressure. They can all of a sudden start swinging at pitches they had no problem laying off before. A swing can get just a tad slow or a tad faster. It can be just another Sunday during a road trip in May without a care in the world when something is different. It's a game of timing... Timing can and does get disrupted and then hopefully they find it again.

 

Pressure would be like a concentrated dose of these routine breakdowns or for some its the moment they were built for and they become more in tune.

 

I believe it's real. Doesn't mean I'm right but yeah some players seem to thrive and other don't and it has very little to do with ability in my opinion.

[Riverbrian]

If a player is THAT affected by pressure to where you change your mechanics and stuff he wouldn't be in the major leagues. It's total nonsense to give that kind of thinking any credibility

Another thing to consider is this. Players reach the major leagues because of their skills. They can choke in the state championship and still be drafted in the first round because the scouts rate their power at a 70 and arm strength at a 65.

 

Those players can also be moved up the ladder based upon potential and good numbers put up during routine baseball games. That can all change when they face Kershaw for the first time or it can all change when they face the 10th round pick out of Baylor in rookie ball. Or it can change when game is on the line. Self doubt or pressing to be the guy can change what you do.

 

In my opinion it's why some first rounders don't pan out. I could be wrong but I believe it.

 

Its a game of timing and repeating that timing against what your head can do to you is a challenge.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's total nonsense to assume that reaching the major leagues makes you immune to pressure. Could be, but they'd be probably the only people in the world, in any profession, immune to pressure.

We're talking about the top 1% of the top 1% of the top 1% here. Guys who have spent their entire lives in "pressure situations".

 

If pressure got to them in any real way, they probably wouldn't be there in the first place. Do a few guys wilt under pressure? Sure, I'd buy into that. But it's a small portion of MLB players. Most of the delicate flowers were weeded out long before they made it to a playoff game in MLB.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I have coached multiple levels of little league and elementry school baseball. Now that you know my vast experience on this subject, my opinion trumps whatever opinion you feel you need to write. All bow down to me!

[Riverbrian]

We're talking about the top 1% of the top 1% of the top 1% here. Guys who have spent their entire lives in "pressure situations".

 

If pressure got to them in any real way, they probably wouldn't be there in the first place. Do a few guys wilt under pressure? Sure, I'd buy into that. But it's a small portion of MLB players. Most of the delicate flowers were weeded out long before they made it to a playoff game in MLB.

I'm not saying I'm right... I'm saying I believe it.

 

In my opinion... These guys haven't spent their entire lives in pressure situations. There is such a thing as a routine baseball game and routine at bat or routine pitch that you've made a 1,000 times before and those moments far out pace the pressure filled moment. It's a mental game and your head can do some things to you. It's impossible to quantify so I have no chance but I'm just saying that I believe it.

[powrwrap]

If a player is THAT affected by pressure to where you change your mechanics and stuff he wouldn't be in the major leagues.

 

Yet, major league players and major league coaches and major league managers say that it happens.

 

 

It's total nonsense to give that kind of thinking any credibility

 

Because we all know that major league players are gods...

[Riverbrian]

I have coached multiple levels of little league and elementry school baseball. Now that you know my vast experience on this subject, my opinion trumps whatever opinion you feel you need to write. All bow down to me!

I'm not sure where to put that one but I assume it was directed at me. I know that I'm wrong frequently but like everyone else who is also wrong frequently... I'm not going to recognize when I am. I apologize if I've crossed some line in this discussion by saying that I believe it and part of that reason is based on playing and coaching.