Article: TD Midseason Top Prospects: #7 Nick Gordon

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Nick Gordon joined the organization a year ago as their first-round pick. As Parker pointed out earlier this year, the Twins have gotten a lack of production from their shortstops - 28th of the 30 teams - over the last dozen years. The hope in drafting Gordon was that taking the best available player would also fill an area of great need.

 

Gordon used his professional debut at short-season Elizabethton to propel himself up the rankings, checking in on MLB’s prospect ranking as the fifth-rated shortstop prospect in all of baseball. Two of the four rated higher than him (Correa and Lindor) are currently in the big leagues. So is Gordon still a Top 3 shortstop?Age: 19 (DOB: 10/24/1995)

2015 Stats (Cedar Rapids): .250/.325/.301 (.626) with 8-2B, 8-3B, 0-HR, 15-SB.

ETA: 2018

2015 Preseason Ranking: #6

 

Gordon held his own against many players significantly older than he is. Many players in the Appalachian League have three or four years of college under their belt, or they have been in pro ball for one to three years already. In 57 games, he hit .294/.333/.364 (.699) with six doubles, four triples and a home run. He stole 11 bases. In 49 games at shortstop, he had just eight errors and posted a .964 fielding percentage. These numbers don’t jump out, but they are impressive when put in the context of his age and experience relative to the league.

This is what Seth wrote about Gordon in January. It couldn’t be more accurate. But Gordon did suffer a broken finger late in the year and missed offseason instructional league. He reported to spring training with full health and was assigned his initial full-season assignment, heading north to cold-weather Cedar Rapids.

 

What’s To Like

 

It’s been mentioned plenty, but Gordon has major league-ability in his genes. His dad, Tom, played for every team in his 30 year career. (Yes, that is hyperbole.) And his older half-brother, Dee, is an All-Star second baseman who currently is the only player in MLB with more than 100 hits. (He has 101. Jason Kipnis is next with 91.)

 

“You value the gene,” said Mike Radcliff, the Twins’ Vice President of Player Personnel, last July. “When you come from a major league gene, that’s what it is all about. There’s a great value at the beginning of their careers and a feeling that they won’t be overmatched.”

 

Yet both dad and brother would tell you that Nick is the most athletic of the trio. So there is still plenty to project of the young 19-year-old, who is acclimating himself to a full year’s worth of playing baseball.

 

But what does he do on the field? As the 5th-youngest primary shortstop in the 16-team Midwest League, Gordon ranks seventh in range factor (with 4.07 putouts/game) and second in fielding percentage (.960). The combination of those numbers means when he’s getting to the ball, he’s making a play. His 10 errors shouldn’t be alarming, as it is in the middle of pack in his league.

 

Can he grow in that position? Absolutely. But it’s a fine start.

 

What’s Left To Work On

 

After he was drafted, Twins scouting director Deron Johnson said the organization liked Gordon’s “ability to play shortstop. We think he’s offensive. He’s got a really good swing. I think he’s going to have power down the road. He’s going to stay at shortstop, in my mind. He’s got great work ethic. Great kid. Big league bloodlines with his brother and his dad. We expect big things from him.”

 

So far, though, while Gordon has held his own defensively, he hasn’t quieted some of the questions about him, specifically his bat. The Twins thought Gordon was offensive. His OPS so far is only .626 as he’s hit for literally zero power (two April triples among his ten extra base hit. No home runs.)

 

Gordon has really struggled against left-handed pitchers. His slash line is .196/.274/.214 (.488) and he’s struck out 19 times in 56 at-bats. Of his 11 hits, 10 are singles and he’s drawn only one walk.

 

Hopefully, part of the batting troubles can be attributed to the early-season weather in Iowa. June has been much kinder to Gordon. In 15 games, he’s hitting .310/.385/.362 (.747). So the Twins hope that as we hit the hot summer months, Gordon can continue to heat up.

 

What's Next

 

Gordon needs to figure out low A-ball. He’s still a work in progress as a defender - and going in the right direction - but offensively he’ll need to get a lot better. Aaron Hicks was the last high-profile draft pick to repeat low A. (At the time, I read an article about the low success rate of players who have to repeat the level, though I’m unable to find it now. The memory of reading that article is vivid every time I watch Aaron Hicks struggle.)

 

Gordon still has plenty of time to prove that he will be able to move forward to Fort Myers next year. But as you can obviously see from his preseason rank (#6) to his current rank (#7), his prospect arrow isn’t pointing up right now.

 

TD Top Prospect #10 - Alex Meyer

TD Top Prospect #9 - Max Kepler

TD Top Prospect #8 - Eddie Rosario

 

Click here to view the article

[tobi0040]

if a players relationship to another player is the first thing mentioned about him, that is very telling.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

if a players relationship to another player is the first thing mentioned about him, that is very telling.

 

I'd agree that he needs to perform and break free of that shadow. But, yeah... that's still the lead on him. But I'm not worried about him (yet).

[Seth Stohs]

 

if a players relationship to another player is the first thing mentioned about him, that is very telling.

 

I know, right... didn't work for Griffey, or McCullers, or so many others.

[goulik]

His adopt a prospect page points out that his BA has greatly improved over the last month though the power is still not there. He is 19. He is still growing into his manhood so to speak power wise.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

I know, right... didn't work for Griffey, or McCullers, or so many others.

well it does work for some but you also have the Tony Gwynn Jr's and Dale Berra's of the world (among others) that didn't live up to their father's playing careers

[nytwinsfan]

The success in June is great to see. And his plate discipline looks solid even over the whole year.  The power has a good chance of arriving as he grows and matures.

[ThejacKmp]

The concept of the "baseball gene" makes the Twins front office seem like evolution deniers.  I really hope that is just something you say in an interview, not a major part of the decision to take Nick Gordon.  A "baseball gene" is the most ridiculous thing I've heard in a long time.  Take that science!

Now a ballerina gene on the other hand . . .

[tobi0040]

 

The concept of the "baseball gene" makes the Twins front office seem like evolution deniers.  I really hope that is just something you say in an interview, not a major part of the decision to take Nick Gordon.  A "baseball gene" is the most ridiculous thing I've heard in a long time.  Take that science!

Now a ballerina gene on the other hand . . .

 

 

Agreed, each draft 15-20 relatives or children of players get drafted.  For every Griffey there is six from the Mondesi, Gwynn, Clemens category.

 

Edited June 23, 2015 by tobi0040

[Mike Sixel]

If I read their comments one way....they are saying they like that a draftee has the confidence that comes from having relatives and experience with MLB......

 

I admit, I thought his hit tool would translate better than this, faster. I'm not even a bit worried, but I am surprised.

[drock2190]

I pulled this from minor league ball

 

From BP chat today:

Steve (Cedar Rapids): Mau put a OFP of 70 on Nick Gordon. That’s pretty high praise. Is he that well-liked amongst the other BP Prospect writers?

 

Jeff Moore: Well Mau is a ridiculous human being. So is Nick Gordon though so that doesn’t make it wrong. Let’s look at it this way: as it looks now Gordon is showing the skills to be able to stick at shortstop. That puts him in a certain class right there, and it’s one that’s filled with a bunch of guys, most of whom can’t really hit. Gordon shows a potential plus hit tool and some power, which puts him ahead of 90 percent of the guys who can stick at shortstop. Now, as Mau pointed out, there’s a lot of development left. Gordon is far away, so he’s a high risk prospect. But we assign OFP’s without regard to risk. That’s what makes it an OFP. Gordon is very good, he’s just very far away and there’s a lot of development ahead of him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The concept of the "baseball gene" makes the Twins front office seem like evolution deniers.

To be fair, this attitude isn't unique to the Twins -- most forecasters had Gordon ranked pretty high last June and cited similar reasons.

 

Not that I like that reasoning.  People often like to say certain HS draftees are "raw" and require more patience like Kohl Stewart because they played other sports etc.  Well, the opposite is true for Gordon, who has been playing baseball full-time since he was a child, and whose father was a millionaire pro baseball player living in Florida which gave Nick access to the best instruction, facilities, and opportunities imaginable for baseball development.

 

And indeed we've seen some of that polish, in his speed, athleticism, and shortstop projection.  Unfortunately, we haven't seen it yet in his bat, which is the one component where I don't think his "baseball gene" alone can carry him far in the pro's.

 

By comparison, his brother Dee Gordon was basically a .300 hitter from the get-go in the minor leagues,  stole 70 bases in A ball, and never struck out as much as Nick currently is.  Admittedly, Dee was older when he went pro, but not a ton -- roughly a year and a half ahead of Nick, thanks to community college.  But Dee primarily played basketball until he was a high school senior (he wasn't drafted out of high school at all), was drafted 127th overall compared to 5th, and is also 3 inches shorter than Nick for those that like to project based on size.

[nicksaviking]

 

if a players relationship to another player is the first thing mentioned about him, that is very telling.

 

I agree, but leading with an anecdote is pretty common when describing little known people.  The led on Max Kepler is still that he comes from Germany.

 

I don't like the organizational quotes about "bloodlines" either as I feel there is way too much weight placed on them.  Hard to say if that actually affected his draft position at all.  I tend to think it didn't considering the first three picks in this year's draft were all SS.  Rodgers was a prep SS and went 3rd, I'm not sure he was any more impressive as a HS player than Gordon.  His stats sure weren't.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As the 5th-youngest primary shortstop in the 16-team Midwest League

Actually, according to Fangraphs he is the 4th youngest (Chang was born a few months before Gordon, although Fangraphs age sort does not appear to factor in months):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=11&qual=y&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=2,a

 

This sort of surprised me.  He's young for his league, but not that young.  He does not appear to be distinguishing himself in performance from his age peers:

 

All four of the other shortstops age 19 or below were international signings, with only one netting a signing bonus above six figures.  By requiring the 5th pick in the draft and a $3.85 million bonus, Gordon is comparatively much riskier.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here is a list of first round high school SS draftees:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=pos_round&pos=SS&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&from_type_hs=1#draft_stats::none

 

The one that jumps out as a potential comparable is Francisco Lindor, a valuable glove who was predicted to stick at shortstop.  But even he topped Gordon's current A-ball stats, and he did it a year younger than Gordon too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I know, right... didn't work for Griffey, or McCullers, or so many others.

Barry was a mere shadow of his father, Bobby.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

By comparison, his brother Dee Gordon was basically a .300 hitter from the get-go in the minor leagues,  stole 70 bases in A ball, and never struck out as much as Nick currently is.  Admittedly, Dee was older when he went pro, but not a ton -- roughly a year and a half ahead of Nick, thanks to community college.  But Dee primarily played basketball until he was a high school senior (he wasn't drafted out of high school at all), was drafted 127th overall compared to 5th, and is also 3 inches shorter than Nick for those that like to project based on size.

I consider this a general positive, actually. Dee started as a 20 year old in rookie ball. Nick started as an 18 year old in rookie ball. Dee was so unimpressive overall that he didn't get drafted. I wonder how much of that had to do with his physical appearance as an 18 year old.

 

Nick's offensive ability (or lack thereof) is worth noting but we're talking about a lanky, 19 year old shortstop. He's an inch taller but 10 lbs lighter than his older brother. It can be said with relative confidence that Nick has at least 15 lbs more in his frame.

 

Not everyone grows at the same rate. At 19 years old, I was 6'2"ish and about 160 lbs. By the time I was 22, I was 6'4" and 200 lbs. Gordon is so young that he's not even close to developed physically. There's a chance he never gets there but there's also a decent chance that the power comes with the weight and muscle, which won't finish developing until he's well into his 20s.

 

Some guys (Kennys Vargas, Miguel Sano) are monster human beings seemingly from puberty. Other guys take time to reach maturity. At this point, I'm more concerned with Nick's plate discipline and his contact ability. The power shouldn't be much of a concern when talking about a defensively skilled shortstop who hasn't seen his 20th birthday.

[Trov]

I am not too worried about him.  Sure, do I wish he tore it up like Buxton.  He is still only 19, looks like he will be able to defend short stop, at a possible above average rate.  Looks like his hitting may be coming around as well.  I am not concerned about power, if he can be an above average defender with an OBP of .350-.375 with some doubles mixed in there I am okay with that.  Lets hope he continues to hit the rest of the year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

At this point, I'm more concerned with Nick's plate discipline and his contact ability.

Yes, that's where my concern generally lies too, and while he hasn't been great in those areas, he's far from disastrous.  (I'd prefer if he was closer to his age/position peers in power too, but that's not a huge deal yet.)

 

Still very early, of course.  None of the HS position player first rounders from last year are doing much of anything yet.  Hopefully Gordon can start to separate himself from the pack this summer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes, that's where my concern generally lies too, and while he hasn't been great in those areas, he's far from disastrous.  (I'd prefer if he was closer to his age/position peers in power too, but that's not a huge deal yet.)

Yep. He's not where you'd like him to be in the contact in discipline departments but he hasn't been disastrous, either. That gives me pause but I'm not quite ready to be overly concerned about it.

 

Only time will tell how his power manifests but if he doesn't pick it up in discipline and contact (and he has done that in recent weeks), that could be worrisome in the future.

 

Also, I'm not sure we want Gordon to show much power. He's (reportedly) so slick defensively that maybe it's best if he stays in the 6' range and never gets over 180 lbs. Given the way baseball is turning back to smaller guys up the middle, it could mean he's the first Twins SS who will actually stick at the position through his early 30s. The bigger he gets, the more likely it is that he moves away from the position at a younger age.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dee is also 3 inches shorter than Nick for those that like to project based on size.

I must correct myself: Dee is listed only 1 inch shorter than Nick.  Somehow misread Nick's height as 6'2" when he's actually listed at 6' even.  (Tom Gordon was only 5'9" so I suspect Nick won't get taller.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also, I'm not sure we want Gordon to show much power. He's (reportedly) so slick defensively that maybe it's best if he stays in the 6' range and never gets over 180 lbs. Given the way baseball is turning back to smaller guys up the middle, it could mean he's the first Twins SS who will actually stick at the position through his early 30s. The bigger he gets, the more likely it is that he moves away from the position at a younger age.

Yeah, nobody's asking him to try to be the next A-Rod, or start training with Sano.

 

But at this point, I'm not ready to settle for a banjo bat, banking on projected defense.  If he doesn't start consistently limiting his K's and posting high BABIPs like his brother (or Ben Revere), he should probably add some strength and tweak his swing for at least a little more ISO (.100 range) if he is capable, or he may not stick as a regular regardless of defense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yep, not saying it's good if he has zero power but if he ends up in the .075-.100 range (not far off his brother's marks) he's an acceptable shortstop (provided his average is good as well).

 

But he doesn't have the outright speed of Dee so an ISO over .100 would be preferred. Dee gets a ton of his ISO from triples.

[John Kelsey]

Has anyone looked at what MLB shortstops are hitting these days?

 

Jose Iglesias has the highest OPS of any qualified AL shortshop and it's .768. Next closest is Bogaerts with .734. 

 

If Gordon can stick at shortstop, which I think he can, and post a .700-.750 OPS, which I think he can, he'll probably be one of the better shortstops in the AL. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Has anyone looked at what MLB shortstops are hitting these days?

 

Jose Iglesias has the highest OPS of any qualified AL shortshop and it's .768. Next closest is Bogaerts with .734. 

 

If Gordon can stick at shortstop, which I think he can, and post a .700-.750 OPS, which I think he can, he'll probably be one of the better shortstops in the AL. 

2015 MLB is a very different animal than 2000 MLB. Less production is expected at all positions, particularly the up-the-middle positions.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Has anyone looked at what MLB shortstops are hitting these days?

 

Jose Iglesias has the highest OPS of any qualified AL shortshop and it's .768. Next closest is Bogaerts with .734. 

 

If Gordon can stick at shortstop, which I think he can, and post a .700-.750 OPS, which I think he can, he'll probably be one of the better shortstops in the AL. 

There are 3 NL shortstops with OPS's over .800 this year.  Correa and Lowrie are also over .800 but don't yet qualify.

 

Also, you make it sound like it's easy to post that kind of OPS.  Iglesias is achieving it with a .358 BABIP and tiny 9.1 K%, Boegarts with a .330 BABIP, .113 ISO, and solid 13.6 K%.  (And the Red Sox hope Bogaerts will improve.)

 

At this point, one year into his pro career, Gordon hitting numbers like that is still almost entirely projection. (Note that at Gordon's age, Boegarts was posting an .896 OPS across high-A and AA.)

 

Not to mention, if .700-.750 OPS ends up as his "peak" ability, his offensive performance may veer close to .600 some years too (i.e. Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus).

[Tibs]

The concept of the "baseball gene" makes the Twins front office seem like evolution deniers. I really hope that is just something you say in an interview, not a major part of the decision to take Nick Gordon. A "baseball gene" is the most ridiculous thing I've heard in a long time. Take that science!

 

Now a ballerina gene on the other hand . . .

It's actual not ridiculous at all. This is coming from a guy who is about to graduate with a degree in genetics (me).

[drjim]

 

It's actual not ridiculous at all. This is coming from a guy who is about to graduate with a degree in genetics (me).

 

So he can draw upon nature and nurture?

[ThejacKmp]

 

It's actual not ridiculous at all. This is coming from a guy who is about to graduate with a degree in genetics (me).

 

A baseball gene?  I buy athletic genes, though I think it's had to separate nurture from nature on that one (if Dad and Mom played sports then its likely that Junior will play sports).  But scouts and the Twins always talk about "baseball gene" like somehow the kids are born to play baseball because their Dad or Uncle had a pro baseball career.  If Dad was a pro hockey or fotball player, they likely have the same athletic genes - it's more about what they were encouraged to play when they were young.

 

Baseball gene = ridiculous.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know if they literally mean "gene".......I really don't think they mean it literally.....