Article: The Outlook In The Outfield

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is tough.  I think Rosario is due for some regression as while he's done well, his peripherals say that he's going to have to make some adjustments (particularly in the plate discipline area).  I suspect Arcia will get another shot this year, but yeah, he needs to clean things up. 

 

In my ideal world, I would want an OF of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler/Arcia with Kepler playing a lot of 1B and Arcia getting some time at DH, but with the Mauer situation as it is, I don't see it happening.  I agree Arcia is on his way out with the club, but right now, his value isn't too hot.  I could see him being part of a change of scenery swap with a C/SS type high ceiling guy who hasn't put it together (assuming one exists), but I'd rather his bat heat up and he force his way back on to the roster.

[DaveTMpls]

Buxton needs time at AAA to learn how to hit breaking balls. He's an easy out right now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I was honestly surprised they brought him up, but on the other side, it's not like there was someone there blocking him like there is for Sano.  I think Buxton is going to spend the rest of the season up here.  I realize he cannot hit curves well, but they put him on the 40 early.  They would be silly to burn an option on him this season. 

[drjim]

 

I was honestly surprised they brought him up, but on the other side, it's not like there was someone there blocking him like there is for Sano.  I think Buxton is going to spend the rest of the season up here.  I realize he cannot hit curves well, but they put him on the 40 early.  They would be silly to burn an option on him this season. 

 

Not silly to burn an option but also very premature. Do you really expect the Twins to need to option him in 2018?

 

People can't call for promotions and then panic because they struggle for a couple of games.

[Platoon]

I know Arcia has defensive problems. (Likely the understatement of the post)! But I just cannot stand the thought of another player going somewhere and reading about another successful ex Twin. His numbers for his age are excellent. If he is traded it will be regretted on a David Ortiz level at a minimum. Lastly, it's purported the field staff is not happy with his attitude. They weren't happy with Hardys or Gomez, or Garza, or.... well you get the picture. Good teams adapt and adjust to personalities. I have never seen Arcias name on a police blotter or his picture in the post office. But sadly, my guess is he will get traded for some nice safe 28 yr old pitcher who had a good yr at AAA last year, and who will not cause the field staff to have to roll their eyes on occasion.

[troyhobbs]

CF Buxton, LF Rosario, RF platoon Hicks/Arcia, Kepler 1B, Sano 3B, DH platoon Vargas/Arcia. Wouldn't mind any 1 or 2 of Hicks/Arcia/Vargas being traded for the right piece. Long term DH I'd rather have Arcia than Vargas

[jorgenswest]

Sending Arcia to AAA is the right move. We don't need to read into that move a hopeless feeling on the part of the Twins staff. They expect better and sent a message to a young player. Every team encounters a poor attitude from a struggling young player. It is difficult to handle failure and sometimes prolonged failure doesn't happen until the major league level. The Twins can deal with Arcia by expecting and demanding better. I think Arcia will step up and meet those expectations. I think he will provide a much needed power bat against right handed pitching in his prime.

[DaveTMpls]

 

Not silly to burn an option but also very premature. Do you really expect the Twins to need to option him in 2018?

 

People can't call for promotions and then panic because they struggle for a couple of games.

Nobody's panicking.  Buxton's promotion has been good both for him and for the fans.  Now that he knows how tough the pitchers are, he will be motivated to actually work on that part of his game.  He also learned that there are catchers up here who can throw him out.  More motivation.  As for me, I love seeing him run.

He is the best defensive CF the team has had in a long time, and I would be OK with letting him stay just because of that, if the Twins think he can make progress on his hitting up here.

[Steve Lein]

The exact reasons you guys are proposing to keep Arcia, are the exact reasons I would trade him.

 

Young, has power. That's valuable. Maybe not as much right now with the struggles, but he's shown that value. That's why you trade him. He could get you something useful back.

 

We complain so much around here about them trading "low" on guys, so why are you so opposed to them attempting to trade "high" now?!

 

I've never thought Arcia was a good fit for this team from a depth chart perspective (he's not an OF, and too many DH's). Love the youth, enthusiasm, and power. But it's been three years now and he hasn't developed into the type of hitter his minor league career suggests (.310 career MiLB hitter), only the power remains. I'd cash him in on something the Twins need in a heartbeat and wouldn't care how it turns out for him on another team. There's plenty of options to step up on the Twins and provide the power he takes with him elsewhere.

[troyhobbs]

 

Kepler is still a little ways off. The real issue is that the Twins and most fans dramatically overrate Rosario. It is essentially impossible to be successful with his current plate discipline and he's never had success above A-ball. 

 

So that will happen is that the Twins get rid of Arcia, Rosario goes bust, and then even if Kepler pans out they are short an outfielder.

Rosario's cumulative minor league stats....291 BA, .340 OBP, .820 OPS all while being younger than league avg at every level.  Not too bad

[Seth Stohs]

 

Nothing in the original post about Adam Brett Walker? He's having a pretty good year in AA as well.

 

 

 

I posted this on the Twins Daily twitter feed early this morning:

 

June Stats
Max Kepler: .356/.451/.593 (1.044) with 3-2B, 4-3B, 1 HR, 11 RBI
AB Walker: .338/.380/.738 (1.119) with 6-2B, 1-3B, 6 HR, 18 RBI

[Seth Stohs]

 

Based mostly on the fact that he's already pretty big at age 22, and he's started at first twice as much as in the outfield this year at Chattanooga. But I've heard plenty of reports (including Seth's above) that he can be a fine corner OF. 

 

Kepler is really smooth in the outfield. Arm is average in RF, but good for the other two spots. He won't be an MLB CF, but he can play the position well. He runs really well. I mean, he's got 7 triples and several stolen bases, so he could play CF. I do think over time, and as he gains more strength (which he will), LF would probably be his best position, but he'd have no problem in RF or any of those spots.

 

I would add that if you've got Rosario, Buxton, Hicks (maybe a Hicks/Arcia platoon at some point), then playing Kepler at 1B is just what's best for the team. That's where his versatility is nice. If they have a need at 4 (and obviously DH would be a 5th) positions, he could be an option.

[Platoon]

The exact reasons you guys are proposing to keep Arcia, are the exact reasons I would trade him.

 

Young, has power. That's valuable. Maybe not as much right now with the struggles, but he's shown that value. That's why you trade him. He could get you something useful back.

 

We complain so much around here about them trading "low" on guys, so why are you so opposed to them attempting to trade "high" now?!

 

I've never thought Arcia was a good fit for this team from a depth chart perspective (he's not an OF, and too many DH's). Love the youth, enthusiasm, and power. But it's been three years now and he hasn't developed into the type of hitter his minor league career suggests (.310 career MiLB hitter), only the power remains. I'd cash him in on something the Twins need in a heartbeat and wouldn't care how it turns out for him on another team. There's plenty of options to step up on the Twins and provide the power he takes with him elsewhere.

You are correct! Too many DH options. But trading the best one of the bunch, IMHO, is not a good idea. Especially if he has a prayer of also being a position player. Few remember that Tony Oliva was a horrible OF when he came here. I reiterate, in a slightly different way. The Twins are notorious for investing a couple years in a prospect, then dumping him so someone else can reap the benefits. The list is long. Plouffe and Dozier likely escaped because there were no alternatives. They were so down on Dozier they attempted to turn Rosario into a second baseman!

[Platoon]

Kepler is really smooth in the outfield. Arm is average in RF, but good for the other two spots. He won't be an MLB CF, but he can play the position well. He runs really well. I mean, he's got 7 triples and several stolen bases, so he could play CF. I do think over time, and as he gains more strength (which he will), LF would probably be his best position, but he'd have no problem in RF or any of those spots.

 

I would add that if you've got Rosario, Buxton, Hicks (maybe a Hicks/Arcia platoon at some point), then playing Kepler at 1B is just what's best for the team. That's where his versatility is nice. If they have a need at 4 (and obviously DH would be a 5th) positions, he could be an option.

It seems any scenario contemplated revolves around what to do with Mauer? He is the elephant in the room!

[dxpavelka]

You are correct in your Arcia assessment that the Twins have always valued defense.  But let's think back to Randy Bush.  He played a total of 50 games in the field from 1982-1985 and never hit higher than .249.  But he showed enough with a little power that, in 1986, and even to a greater extent after Tom Kelly took over, that they worked with him to become an adequate defensive player and a vital part of two World Series winners.  Do we really want to trade Arcia and see his offensive potention be realized somewhere else?  I think the Red Sox just called looking for an eventual replacement for Big Papi.

[bluechipper]

The Twins have always valued outfield defense? Is that why Eduardo Escobar played 26 games in LF this year?

[Steven Buhr]

I love the potential of that OF with all the speed, but let's be honest. We all believe Torii Hunter WILL be re-signed for 2016, don't we?

 

Yes, there will be a huge outcry around these parts, but we know it's going to happen.

[lightfoot789]

It's all about the Minor League Fantasy Points - Lol

 

#1 Hitter - Adam Brett Walker

#1 Pitcher - Jose Berrios

http://www.wetalkfantasysports.com/2015/06/Fantasy-Baseball-AA-Prospects.html

 

Several twins farm hands in the running.  Several Twins future Outfielders in the running as well.  Decision Decisions

[drjim]

 

Nobody's panicking.  Buxton's promotion has been good both for him and for the fans.  Now that he knows how tough the pitchers are, he will be motivated to actually work on that part of his game.  He also learned that there are catchers up here who can throw him out.  More motivation.  As for me, I love seeing him run.

He is the best defensive CF the team has had in a long time, and I would be OK with letting him stay just because of that, if the Twins think he can make progress on his hitting up here.

 

You just said send him down. He doesn't need additional motivation to work on his game, he needs reps.

[ericchri]

 

 

I would add that if you've got Rosario, Buxton, Hicks (maybe a Hicks/Arcia platoon at some point), then playing Kepler at 1B is just what's best for the team. That's where his versatility is nice. If they have a need at 4 (and obviously DH would be a 5th) positions, he could be an option.

 

A question that's been bouncing around in my head.  Assume for a minute that Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, and Walker all start matching their theoretical potential (no I'm not predicting that, just musing).  Rosario and Buxton are definitely filling two of the OF spots, but which of Kepler or Walker (college 1B, no?) gets the last OF, and which mans 1B?

[Steve Lein]

 

A question that's been bouncing around in my head.  Assume for a minute that Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, and Walker all start matching their theoretical potential (no I'm not predicting that, just musing).  Rosario and Buxton are definitely filling two of the OF spots, but which of Kepler or Walker (college 1B, no?) gets the last OF, and which mans 1B?

 

That's a good question... Walker is not a particularly good outfielder, and hasn't been playing 1B (was described as "stiff" there going into his draft).

 

Kepler is the better option to me at both spots defensively. So if that's the conundrum, I think it's Max in the OF.

[DaveTMpls]

 

You just said send him down. He doesn't need additional motivation to work on his game, he needs reps.

No, he needs reps + instruction.  That's what the minor leagues are for.  He has already said that he had not seen curve balls like that at AA.

Edited June 19, 2015 by DaveTMpls

[drjim]

 

No, he needs reps + instruction.  That's what the minor leagues are for.  He has already said that he had not seen curve balls like that at AA.

 

He would likely see better command in AAA relative to AA but not better stuff.

 

And he will get much better instruction in the bigs than at AAA.

[Mike Sixel]

So how does he get better at hitting said curve balls, if he doesn't see said curve balls?

[Kwak]

I like Rosario--but then I liked how well Santana hit last year (not his CF defense though).  This year?  Is Rosario 2015's Santana?  Then does he become next year's 2015 Santana?  Hmm.  Panic (like every year) and rotate several players in the OF?  Ugh.  

 

The Mauer problem can be solved by...splitting duty at Catcher next year with Suzuki.  Spot play at 1B and DH to ensure he plays every home game and plenty of road games.  Concussion issue?  Wait!  Wouldn't everybody have a concussion issue at Catcher?  Besides there are only three years left (after 2015) on his contract.  That seems like an acceptable risk of injury to me.

 

Back to the OF discussion.  NO to Mauer, Sano, Santana, Escobar, and the rest of the infielders.  There simply are plenty of options (OK, not perfect options) to man the OF--use them.  Yes to (first Arcia).  I know he can't defend any better than an Iron Mike, but it's just too soon to give up on him.  That time will also permit Kepler, and the rest of the MiL gang to "age" some more and see which of them should be the first to replace Arcia should (when?) he fails.  Hicks is my #4 OF.

 

Did I forget Hunter, Shafer, and Robison?  Yes.  I sang each of them my rendition of "Happy Trails to You".

[Mike Sixel]

Mauer is not going back to catcher. It. Is. Not. Happening.

 

It's nice that you feel it is ok he takes on more brain injury risk......as if the only thing that matters is the number of years left on his contract.

[Hrbowski]

I'm higher on Arcia than most people, and I think it would a failure to trade him right now, maybe after the 2016 season if we still have these other players performing at a high level.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Rosario's cumulative minor league stats....291 BA, .340 OBP, .820 OPS all while being younger than league avg at every level.  Not too bad

 

Like I said, his numbers above A-ball are atrocious. He isn't an elite athlete. He doesn't have great power. He has horrible plate discipline. Those are not the traits of a successful MLB player. Nor are any of those things easy to improve upon. He is a huge long-shot to establish himself as a solid big leaguer.

[Kwak]

 

Mauer is not going back to catcher. It. Is. Not. Happening.

 

It's nice that you feel it is ok he takes on more brain injury risk......as if the only thing that matters is the number of years left on his contract.

Why?  They had to convince Mauer to leave catcher for that oh so safe position of 1B (Morneau)?  But it must be fine for others to take  the risk at catcher?

[nytwinsfan]

 

That's a good question... Walker is not a particularly good outfielder, and hasn't been playing 1B (was described as "stiff" there going into his draft).

 

Kepler is the better option to me at both spots defensively. So if that's the conundrum, I think it's Max in the OF.

Yup, Kepler is better at both spots, but given that he is not Tatiana Maslany, he can only play one. So what matters is comparative advantage, not absolute advantage (remember your college econ class on free trade?).  If DH is not occupied by a better option, I'd put Kepler in the OF and Walker at DH. If DH is occupied and 1B is not, then its a tough call, but I might agree that Kepler has a comparative advantage at 1B.

Edited June 19, 2015 by nytwinsfan