Article: The Outlook In The Outfield

[Nick Nelson]

Standing out among the defining characteristics of the Twins teams that rose to prominence back in the early 2000s were the reliable and steadily productive outfields. It all began with The Soul Patrol – Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones and Matt Lawton – and while the names changed, there was always a sense of stability from year to year.

 

Recently, that has gone amiss. Over the last few seasons, the Twins have handed numerous starts at all three spots to journeyman minor leaguers, cast-offs from other organizations, and ill-suited infielders. Last year, 10 different players started in left field for Minnesota; same thing in right. No one played more 97 games at any outfield position.Up until now, this year has been much of the same. Already we've seen nine different players draw starts in the outfield (for comparison, the season total in 2010 was six) and the results have been ugly. Here's the total production the Twins have gotten from all three positions, compared to the league averages:

 

Position | Twins OPS | AL OPS

LF | .628 | .700

CF | .596 | .721

RF | .726 | .755

Right field has been the only position with any kind of stability, and its occupant is likely to be gone after this season.

 

But the arrival of Byron Buxton over the weekend signaled a hopeful shift away from the revolving door routine in Minnesota's outfield. Barring unforeseen circumstances or injury, Buxton will hold down center field regularly for the rest of this season and beyond. And when it comes to addressing the corner spots on either side, the Twins are in the enviable position of sorting through numerous talented young candidates in their search for a solidified unit.

 

Let's run through some of the players who will be in the mix, with a few perhaps surprising names rounding out the list. (This is more of a short-term view, so I won't dig into any of the prospects that are still multiple years away.)

 

Oswaldo Arcia

 

This has been such a tough year for Arcia that it's easy to forget what a tremendous offensive player he has been for his age level. A recent post by Matthew Pouliout on the HardballTalk blog pointed out that Arcia is one of only seven players under the age of 24 with 500-plus MLB at-bats and a career OPS+ above 100.

 

Defense is clearly Arcia's downfall; he profiles better as a DH and that might be where he ends up. But he could be hidden to some extent in right field, especially with strong defenders in center and left. In spite of his difficulties this month, I remain confident Arcia will be quality middle-of-the-lineup bat for many years, though I'm not as confident it will be here.

 

Eddie Rosario

 

His stock dropped to an all-time low when he missed 50 games last year due to a drug suspension and failed to hit after returning, but Rosario's reclamation tour that began in the Arizona Fall League has been in full swing ever since. The 23-year-old stuck around longer than anyone expected in spring training, drawing consistent praise from Paul Molitor, and was the club's first choice when outfield reinforcements were needed from the minors one month in.

 

Since his arrival in the big leagues, Rosario has done plenty to impress. He is one of only five players on the team with an OPS+ above 100, he's been a dynamic threat on the base paths, and his defense has stood out perhaps more than anything. Having Buxton in center and Rosario in a corner is reminiscent of the Hunter/Jones combo that turned the Metrodome outfield into a no-fly zone.

 

Aaron Hicks

 

It's getting harder and harder to believe that Hicks is going to hit enough to be a major league regular, especially in a corner spot. His .594 OPS with the Twins this year is nearly identical to his .604 overall mark in MLB. But as a switch-hitter that offers speed and premium defense at all three outfield spots, he has the makings of a strong bench option with the upside to eventually turn into a quality starter. He's still only 25 and his production in the minors (particularly in Triple-A this year) leaves no doubt that the offensive ability is there.

 

Max Kepler

 

Signed as a teenager out of Germany back in 2009, Kepler failed to dominate in his initial exposure to pro baseball here in the States. But with his prototypical build, tremendous athleticism and advanced grasp of the strike zone, he was always seen as a guy with the potential to blossom, given a little time. That is exactly what's now happening.

 

Kepler is amidst a breakout season at Double-A, where he's hitting .331/.393/.530. He's flashing power (17 doubles and three homers), speed (five triples and nine steals) and discipline (23-to-19 K/BB). He's hitting lefties (827 OPS), which has been a problem in the past. Kepler is looking like the real deal, and an interesting additional piece in this outfield puzzle.

 

Read Parker Hageman's midseason prospect update on Kepler here.

 

Miguel Sano

 

The notion of Sano moving to an outfield spot, spawned from questions surrounding his ability to stick at third and the entrenched incumbents at Minnesota's infield corners, has been brought up to Twins officials in the past and has never really been downplayed. Terry Ryan and others have been emphatic that the bulking 6'4", 260 lbs. slugger can move well enough to play out there. But up to this point, Sano still has not played a single pro inning at any outfield position, so this remains a theoretical idea. As the names mentioned above suggest, Sano may face no less of a logjam in the outfield corners than the infield ones.

 

Joe Mauer

 

The thinking here is twofold: First, Mauer has a good arm and still moves decently well, assets that go to waste when he's stationed at first base; second, his reduced offensive output plays a little better somewhere like left field -- where the average AL OPS is .706 – than at first base, where it's .792 (highest of any position). The Twins have a number of promising hitters in the system whose best fit appears to be first base, and right now Mauer is blocking them all while providing the worst production in the league for the position.

 

TAKEAWAYS

 

Looking over these candidates, I have three principal takeaways with regard to the Twins' outfield outlook.

 

1) Arcia seems likely to be traded. The Twins have always valued defense and that's a major shortcoming for Arcia. There have also been indications that the coaching staff isn't always pleased with the slugger's demeanor. If his bat gets going again and draws interest from another club, I could easily see Ryan pulling the trigger.

 

2) Hicks is running out of time if he hasn't already. Patience is always encouraged with young players, especially a former first-round pick who has produced in the minors, but Hicks is currently failing for a third time in the majors and now the rest of the organization's bright prospective outfield talent has either caught up or passed him.

 

3) Mauer to left field should be strongly considered. Mainly because at least two people on this list (Kepler and Sano) strike me as better fits at first base than in the outfield, and that's not even mentioning Kennys Vargas, who has no possible landing spot other than first base or DH.

 

Oh, and one other thing: Bringing back Hunter for another year shouldn't even be on the table, regardless of how he produces from here on out. He simply doesn't fit in the scope of what this team is trying to accomplish.

 

What are your thoughts? What are your takeaways from this list, and which alignment would you like to see patrolling Minnesota's outfield for the next several years?

 

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[Seth Stohs]

This is a tremendous article! Captures so much in it. Here are a couple of my thoughts for discussion:

 

 

Barring unforeseen circumstances or injury, Buxton will hold down center field regularly for the rest of this season and beyond.

 

I don't know if he will for the rest of this year, but definitely the beyond. I don't know how much rope they'll give him in this first big league opportunity, but he's going to have to make some big-time offensive adjustments quickly to stick this year.

 

Also, I get the idea behind Mauer to the Outfield, but I just can't see that. He is so stiff at 1B, I can't imagine him in the OF. It may be better than Willingham, but Rosario, Buxton and Hicks just sounds so much more appealing. That said, I get the thought that they need to make a spot for Sano. Also, Kepler is such a good corner outfielder that I think he should play out there if they did give up on Hicks as suggested. 

 

It's going to be interesting. It's funny how there seems to be this great depth right now, but somehow it always seems to become obvious when it needs to.

 

[Otwins]

This outfield is improving by the month which is a good thing. Hopefully Kepler will be ready by the start of next year. He could play right with Buxton and Rosario. Hicks the 4th outfielder. I would not move Mauer to any spot other than DH. Too late in his career.

[Shane Wahl]

Kepler added two more triples tonight. He is having the best year for Twins prospects.

 

I think Arcia has to be traded as well. You don't mention Travis Harrison or Danny Ortiz, but I think all three of them could be shipped off (most likely together with a couple vets in a couple of trades). A 2016 OF of Kepler-Buxton-Rosario-Hicks is pretty enticing.

[Seth Stohs]

I'm good with trading Arcia, but not right now. He has no trade value.. Hopefully he can build some value up the rest of this season and have a strong September or something. Then they can actually maybe get something for him. He is out of options (so is Hicks) next year, so they'll have to make some big decisions on those guys.

 

Also, they'll have to make 40-man roster decisions on Walker and Harrison (and maybe others). I doubt they'd add Ortiz, but I'm sure they'd be happy if he stayed around as a free agent again.

[mumoo13]

Why does Kepler strike you as a better fit at 1B than the outfield?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Great article. This is a nice problem to have. I think people should also consider the possibility of Trevor Plouffe playing some OF for the Twins moving forward...

[stringer bell]

Nothing in the original post about Adam Brett Walker? He's having a pretty good year in AA as well.

 

Kepler is leading the Southern League in hitting, second in triples (behind Buxton) and second to Schwarber in OPS. He has to be considered for next year. Also he was named to the Southern All-Star team after Buxton was promoted.

 

I think Mauer to the OF is a non-starter. Arcia is trade bait, despite his offensive upside. Buxton needs to get rolling before Hicks returns or he'll be sent back down.

[nytwinsfan]

 

This is a tremendous article! Captures so much in it. Here are a couple of my thoughts for discussion:

 

 

I don't know if he will for the rest of this year, but definitely the beyond. I don't know how much rope they'll give him in this first big league opportunity, but he's going to have to make some big-time offensive adjustments quickly to stick this year.

 

Also, I get the idea behind Mauer to the Outfield, but I just can't see that. He is so stiff at 1B, I can't imagine him in the OF. It may be better than Willingham, but Rosario, Buxton and Hicks just sounds so much more appealing. That said, I get the thought that they need to make a spot for Sano. Also, Kepler is such a good corner outfielder that I think he should play out there if they did give up on Hicks as suggested. 

 

It's going to be interesting. It's funny how there seems to be this great depth right now, but somehow it always seems to become obvious when it needs to.

 

I agree with Seth. I don't think Mauer to the outfield and Kepler to 1B makes sense. Otherwise I thought it was a very good article. I also don't think the Twins should trade Arcia until they know they have a superior option at DH. Right now the jury is out on who that is (maybe Vargas, maybe Mauer, maybe whichever of Sano/Plouffe is not at 3B). But I agree Arcia should probably not be in the outfield with his defense.

[THE DFC]

Ideally, you have Rosario-Buxton-Kepler in the OF. Hicks backs them up. Sano to 3B, Vargas to 1B and Arcia as the DH.

 

Move Plouffe and Pelfrey while they're hot commodities and start this youth movement. It's obviously time.

 

Unfortunately, the part about the Mauer situation that irks me the most that is rarely discussed is that it's getting to become a pretty big bummer that one of Kepler, Arcia or Vargas is likely going to be traded all because Mauer has become such a non-productive, non-tradeable disaster.

 

Mark my words: if we move Arcia just because we're stuck with Mauer, it's going to sting a lot in 3-4 years. Maybe not quite at a Carlos Gomez/David Ortiz level, but it could definitely be close.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Ideally, you have Rosario-Buxton-Kepler in the OF. Hicks backs them up. Sano to 3B, Vargas to 1B and Arcia as the DH.

Move Plouffe and Pelfrey while they're hot commodities and start this youth movement. It's obviously time.

Unfortunately, the part about the Mauer situation that irks me the most that is rarely discussed is that it's getting to become a pretty big bummer that one of Kepler, Arcia or Vargas is likely going to be traded all because Mauer has become such a non-productive, non-tradeable disaster.

Mark my words: if we move Arcia just because we're stuck with Mauer, it's going to sting a lot in 3-4 years. Maybe not quite at a Carlos Gomez/David Ortiz level, but it could definitely be close.

Excellent points. I think we should wait to move Pelfrey and Plouffe until we are out of contention, or in Plouffe's case, the end of the season.  And I haven't completely given up on Mauer yet. Let's give him more time. Otherwise I agree with everything.

[hybridbear]

• Cut Mauer, who cares if you have to eat his contract, he's unproductive

Help Vargas improve his defense at 1B

Trade Plouffe when his value is highest, even if Sano isn't ready because Escobar can cover 3rd temporarily

Help Santana get back on track to take over SS

Rosario in LF, Buxton in CF & Arcia in RF with Hicks as 4th OF should be next year's starting lineup

DO NOT under any circumstances offer Torii Hunter another contract to play, offer him a contract as a coach for next year

Trade Arcia while his value is highest and bring up Kepler, Hicks can fill in if Arcia's value peaks before Kepler is ready

[drivlikejehu]

It's really going to irritate me when the Twins give Arcia away for nothing and he almost immediately becomes a highly productive hitter. He's a much, much better bet than Vargas, long-term. I'd also take Arcia over Rosario without a second thought... hitters with plate discipline problems and average power rarely succeed.

[dbminn]

The next couple of years are going to be interesting, to say the least. I like the idea that no one will be given a position in the outfield - they'll have to earn it! 

 

As of right now, looks like a 2016 outfield of Rosario in LF/Buxton in CF. Kepler could be the one to move Hicks from RF to 4th OF. Arcia is still an option for RF, for the same reasons given by others: young, powerful, and left-handed. And ABW will eventually be in the mix...

 

I hope TR is patient and doesn't trade any of the prospects until the picture gets a bit clearer.

[TheLeviathan]

I've always been on the Kepler bandwagon and I'm thrilled to see him coming along as well as he is.

 

One concern I have is that this team going forward might have a power problem if bother corner OFs are looking 10ish HR guys.  Assuming Mauer continues to play 1B that might mean a team with only 3 guys that can hit 20+ a year.  (Plouffe, Sano, Dozier)

 

I love all the speed and defense out there in the OF, but there would be a sacrifice to that as well.  Just thinking out loud about that future lineup.

[harren10]

I hope Ryan does read this post for free advise, there's some good stuff here;) The only point I'd add is there is something to be said for experience and consistency in a line up. I feel that without both Mauer and Tori next year, inconsistency will be much worse. Even if they have slow times, they help others with confidence. I've been on many sports teams, the young guys need someone on the field to emulate. Even if when they're throwing bats and jerseys on the field. At least it shows they care.

Having said that, I'm frustrated with Mauer but he still brings enough to start another year given the intangibles I mentioned. Let's fill the outfield with the young talent. Keep Trevor and Joe up front for another year until we have more clarity. Tori is an easy scratch off the payroll, hopefully he goes out with a bang this year.

[HitInAPinch]

Great article!  With this team, I'm still looking towards the future.

 

Buxton was an emergency call up because the Twins, inexplicably, still don't have sufficient depth in the OF.  As of right now, barring a huge shift in management's stance, Buxton returns to AA once Hicks is back.  If Buxton has hitting the cover off the ball, completely different story.  His recent numbers were very good numbers for MLB.  But this was at AA.  When promoting from AA, you should see something more like Hicks' AAA seasonal numbers to promote.

 

Mauer is what he is right now.  If they contemplated Joe and an OF'er, that should have been done a couple years ago.  Any move I'd make would be to DH, for defensive purposes.  Vargas to 1st. Because at some point you need to find out who's the long-term answer at 1st.

 

What the heck is going on with Arcia?  Is he playing his way into being the next Wilken Ramirez?  He needs to be given a wakeup call and a ticket to Chattanooga. 

 

Sano [a 3rd bagger until PROVEN otherwise], Walker and Kepler:  leave them alone.  They're right where they need to be, right now.  Maybe a year or 2 away.  But I never say never :-)

[TNLooky2015]

Kepler will be a viable option in the OF or 1B.  He now leads the Southern League in triples with 7 and has 17 doubles.  He hasn't shown much home run power, and might be a faster and younger version of Joe Mauer.  Not a bad thing to be labeled with. [22 years old]

 

Walker only gets credit for hitting homers, but he sits second in the Southern League in doubles with 17 as well.   Anybody who hits 17 doubles and 18 homers is on my radar as a keeper.  That is 37 extra base hits when you add his 2 triples.  Dozier leads the MLB with 37 extra base hits.  [23 years old]

 

Harrison has fallen off some lately, but don't dismiss his potential and future contributions as well.  When he hits it, he hits it hard. [22 years old]

 

We need power in the line up somewhere and I would go with whoever can provide the most without being a total liability defensively.  

 

Buxton, Rosario, Walker, Kepler [dangerous group]

 

 

[Dantes929]

Article doesn't really touch on how much better the outfield defense has been this year and how much better Rosario, Buxton and Hicks can be than Willingham, Schaefer and Arcia.   What was a huge liability coming into the season looks like it could be a huge asset.    Team can afford Hunter or Arcia in right as long as Buxton and Rosario man the other two spots.    I like Arcia and Vargas but am leaning toward one of them leaving.  

[Vanimal46]

We're about 7 years too late on the Mauer to OF campaign. I completely agree with your takes on Arcia and Hicks. Arcia in my opinion has gotten this far on talent alone. But at the MLB level, you need to put in some extra work to become a well rounded player. He doesn't seem like the guy that puts in that extra effort.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Why does Kepler strike you as a better fit at 1B than the outfield?

Based mostly on the fact that he's already pretty big at age 22, and he's started at first twice as much as in the outfield this year at Chattanooga. But I've heard plenty of reports (including Seth's above) that he can be a fine corner OF. 

[jorgenswest]

Any long term projections really need to look back long term. A few months of data is not very useful in projecting long term. Three full years minimum are needed. I hope the Twins are not reacting to this just year and valuing Kepler ahead of Arcia.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Any long term projections really need to look back long term. A few months of data is not very useful in projecting long term. Three full years minimum are needed. I hope the Twins are not reacting to this just year and valuing Kepler ahead of Arcia.

 

Kepler is still a little ways off. The real issue is that the Twins and most fans dramatically overrate Rosario. It is essentially impossible to be successful with his current plate discipline and he's never had success above A-ball. 

 

So that will happen is that the Twins get rid of Arcia, Rosario goes bust, and then even if Kepler pans out they are short an outfielder.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Based mostly on the fact that he's already pretty big at age 22, and he's started at first twice as much as in the outfield this year at Chattanooga. But I've heard plenty of reports (including Seth's above) that he can be a fine corner OF. 

 

I am guessing one of the reasons he started at 1B so much this year is to avoid another immediate arm injury diving for a ball in the outfield. Also, unlike their other three outfielders, he was able to play a position that they needed to fill, especially once Dalton Hicks was injured. I didn't ever get a sense that it was his ideal position. He is big height wise, but I don't think he's big in a slow or lumbering sense at all, and it sounds like if anything, Walker is bigger than Kepler in every sense other than height, but everyone thinks Walker can play OF.

[Mike Sixel]

Not to mention ..... the impending 40 man roster crunch. It's great to have lots of good prospects, but you can only protect 40 or them.

 

Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, Arcia, Kepler are on the 40 man.

 

I like Rosario, Buxton Kepler in the OF, with Kepler maybe playing some 1B.

Arcia can DH or play RF sometimes.

 

that's 4 OF right there.......Hicks and Kepler keep the guy up that actually produces, send the other to AAA.

 

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

There is space for all of the players named above on the 40. There will be next year also.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6647-looking-at-the-40-man-roster/#commentsStart

[Mike Sixel]

Where is Sano in your analysis?

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

I love Kepler and think he can play fine in the OF, just not sure if his arm is strong enough for RF, at least from what I am hearing.  He might be  a better fit in LF.

[drjim]

 

I love Kepler and think he can play fine in the OF, just not sure if his arm is strong enough for RF, at least from what I am hearing.  He might be  a better fit in LF.

 

That seems to be the scouting report. Will outgrow CF, not enough arm for RF. He will be a LF/1B guy.

[GACbaseball]

I really don't want to count on Kepler, Walker, Harrison, or Rosario as our future until they prove something in AAA. Even though we have been promoting from AA, I'd really like to start getting back to using AAA as a final stepping stone.

Arcia should not be traded yet... he has proven he can hit major league hitting for an extended period of time and I don't want to give up on him for the "promise" of any of the minor league guys. I don't want to give up Denard Span again because a guy like Hicks is ready for the big leagues

Let's keep all of our guys until they distinguish themselves more against higher levels of pitching