Article: TD Midseason Top Prospects: #10 Alex Meyer

[Seth Stohs]

In early February, we presented our Top 10 Minnesota Twins prospects. With the minor league seasons nearly half complete and the draft just completed, we thought it would be a good time to update our Top 10 lists.

 

In the next two weeks, you’ll find that our rankings have changed in some ways. Some players have moved up. Others have struggled and moved down, or even out, of this list. Today, we start this series with a look at our choice for #10 Twins prospect, Alex Meyer.The Twins acquired the 6-9, hard-throwing right-hander in a November 2012 trade with the Washington Nationals. Denard Span went to the Nationals where, when healthy, he has been a force at the top of the team’s lineup. At the time, Meyer was viewed as a potential top of the rotation starter while many cautioned that he could wind up being a dominant reliever.

 

Meyer’s career is at an interesting juncture right now. He is currently working out of the AAA Rochester bullpen after early-season struggles in the Red Wings starting rotation. It will be very interesting to see what the future holds for the obviously very talented flame-thrower.

 

Alex Meyer - RHP

Age: 25 (DOB: 1/3/90)

2015 Stats (AAA): 50.0 IP, 3-3, 5.76 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 56/30 K/BB

ETA: 2015

2014 Preseason Ranking: 3, 2015 Preseason Ranking: 5

 

 

What's To Like

 

It has been a difficult 2015 season for Meyer so far and yet, everything that we have liked about him in the past continues to be true. The talent that made him a first-round pick in 2011 in still there.

 

Even through his 2015 struggles, he has 56 strikeouts in 50 innings. He has the ability to miss bats. He does so with a strong pitch mix. His fastball continues to sit 95 to 96 and touches 99 at times. He still has a very good, power slider.

 

What's Left To Work On

 

He was very strong for Rochester in 2014, and even then, he walked 4.4 batters per nine innings. In 2015, he has walked 5.4 per nine innings. It doesn’t matter how hard you throw, that won’t lend to much big league success.

 

In 2014 in AAA, he gave up just eight hits per nine innings. To this point in 2015, he has allowed 10.4 hits per nine innings. In my opinion, after his rough start, an effort was being made to throw more strikes. That led to more hits allowed. However, the strategy makes sense. Get back to throwing strikes, gain confidence in your control, and then start working in the other pitches and worry about hitting corners.

 

I also believe that Meyer needs to work on his confidence. He had a tough couple of months leading up to spring training and then some tough times during spring training, on and off the field. He did lack confidence through his struggles, as most would.

 

There have always been questions about his ability to start. His 130.1 innings in 2014 was his career high. Of his seven starts this season, he completed six innings just three times. He completed seven innings once, just the second time in his four minor league seasons.

 

What's Next

 

In mid-May, the Twins and Meyer made the decision for him to move to the bullpen. At the time, he was 2-3 with a 7.09 ERA. In 39.1 innings, he had allowed 51 hits, walked 24 and struck out 41. Opponents were hitting .325/.418/.427 (.845) off of him.

 

In his six games since moving to the bullpen, he is 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA. In 10.2 innings, he has given up seven hits, walked six and struck out 15. Opponents have hit .184/.311/.237 (.548) against him. He pitched three innings in two of those six outings.

 

So, what’s next? In reality, the Twins have two options with two different timelines:

 

1.) They can give him one more shot to be a starter. He has made some improvements and maybe he can take that success back to the starting role. If that is the plan, he will have to get several more starts and return to the type of dominance that he showed in Rochester in 2014. He could be a September call up.

2.) The other option is to let him continue in the bullpen, pitching either one inning at a time or in long relief. If that is the decision, he could be up with the Twins very quickly. I think he would just need a few more weeks of work, learning how to prepare for coming out of the bullpen. Of course, the Twins have to account for the return of Ervin Santana as well as find a way to get back to 12 pitchers, but I think that Meyer could be up within a month.

The more likely path to success for Meyer is in the bullpen. In that role, he can develop over time into a strong back-of-the-bullpen option with his velocity. The 25-year-old was only added to the Twins 40-man roster last November, so 2015 is only his first of three option years. They can afford to be patient. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw him much sooner than that.

 

What do you think is the best course of action for Alex Meyer and also for the Minnesota Twins?

 

Click here to view the article

[TommyGun]

I'd start him out in an Anthony Swarzak type role. Long relief with a spot start or two along the way. Wait and see how well he does and reevaluate during the off season.

[Mike Sixel]

long relief is a waste. They only get used when the teams have already pretty much lost. Either a starter, or a 1 inning guy, those have value.

[dbminn]

Seems like single inning set-up reliever should be Meyer's first job in the majors. I don't mind that they are giving him extended relief innings in AAA. Forces him to use all of his pitches. There shouldn't be any transition problems between long relief in AAA and short relief in the majors.

 

Still needs to get his BB rate down.

[Tibs]

I'm in favor of keeping him in the pen for a while. Possibly for the rest of the year if it involves being in the Twins bullpen.

[HitInAPinch]

Well, in 6 games as a reliever, 10.2 innings:  15K's.  YEA!! 

Oh, and 7 hits, 6 BB's.  Err, not, um, good.

 

He obviously needs more time to work on his motion/pitches, clear his head, or generally get his fecal material in a stable configuration. 

 

We know the reason why management moved him to the bullpen and it has nothing to so with making him into a reliever.  It's an attempt to easy some of the self inflicted pressure.  I think it would be an enormous mistake to plan on his role with the Twins as anything other than a starter.

[ttreadway]

Johan Santana pitched in 30 games (5 starts) in 2000. He gave up 102 hits in 86 innings, while walking batters to a tune of 5.7/9 innings pitched, and managed an awful 6.49 ERA. Over the course of the next four years he split time between fill-in starts when needed due to injury, and bullpen work. In 2003, his last year before becoming a full-time starter (and winning a CY Young award) He had worked his numbers down to 127 hits in 156 innings, a 3.07 ERA, and 2.7 BB/9. We all know what happened after that. Santana was 21 years old in 2000 when he came up with the twins, and they stuck with him through his struggles and let him figure it out in the bullpen. Meyer is now 25 years old...I say bring him up before we waste any more years of his potential. It took Santana four years of pitching at the big league level to figure it out. His last effective year was his age 31 season. If we are comparing apples with apples, and Meyer follows the path of Santana (not saying they are the same pitcher, but their numbers and styles look similar to me) than as we stand right now, Meyer will be 29 by the time he fully hits his stride, with just 3 effective years in front of him. I say call him up, and don't waste anymore time. And in the mean-time we have an option in our bullpen besides Perk who can actually strike someone out!

[Vance_Christianson]

Bring him up with Ervin on July 4th! That's assuming all is still going well in AAA. Before we know it, Meyer will get hurt, need surgery, out the rest of this year, rehab beginning of next year, then we'll try him as a starter again, and waste 3 -6 months again, and then he'll 35 by the time he makes it up to the Twins. HA!!!!

[jimbo92107]

The model for Meyer should match the great job the Twins did managing J.R. Graham. They began by using him in low-leverage situations, then very gradually upped the ante. Now Graham is much more confident, and he's pitching great.

 

In Graham's case it was about coming off an injury, where Meyer is still honing his mechanics to reduce walks. The same careful, gradual approach should work for Meyer, always with the proviso that they can back off and give him a break from the pressure.

[gil4]

 

long relief is a waste. They only get used when the teams have already pretty much lost. Either a starter, or a 1 inning guy, those have value.

I don't think anyone wants the goal to be for him to become a long reliever, but those innings can be valuable for development.  Long relievers still face major league hitters, and someone has to throw those innings.  It might as well be someone you are preparing for a bigger role.

[gil4]

 

Johan Santana pitched in 30 games (5 starts) in 2000. He gave up 102 hits in 86 innings, while walking batters to a tune of 5.7/9 innings pitched, and managed an awful 6.49 ERA.

 

...Santana was 21 years old in 2000 when he came up with the twins, and they stuck with him through his struggles and let him figure it out in the bullpen.

 

...If we are comparing apples with apples, and Meyer follows the path of Santana (not saying they are the same pitcher, but their numbers and styles look similar to me)...

The Twins stuck with Santana in 2000 mainly because he was a Rule 5 guy and they wanted to keep him.  If they could have optioned him, I'm sure they would have.

 

I didn't go back and review the numbers, but there's not much in common style-wise.  Meyer is 6'9" (vs. 6'0"), is right-handed, throws much harder than Santana did, and has a slider as his #2 pitch.  (Santana had possibly the best change-up of all time, although I'm not sure if he learned it before or after 2000.)

 

It's not a very good comp.

 

That said, the long-relief role can be useful for pitchers of different styles, and it can be used effectively as an evaluation tool and, hopefully, as a springboard to bigger things.

[ttreadway]

 

The Twins stuck with Santana in 2000 mainly because he was a Rule 5 guy and they wanted to keep him.  If they could have optioned him, I'm sure they would have.

 

I didn't go back and review the numbers, but there's not much in common style-wise.  Meyer is 6'9" (vs. 6'0"), is right-handed, throws much harder than Santana did, and has a slider as his #2 pitch.  (Santana had possibly the best change-up of all time, although I'm not sure if he learned it before or after 2000.)

 

It's not a very good comp.

 

That said, the long-relief role can be useful for pitchers of different styles, and it can be used effectively as an evaluation tool and, hopefully, as a springboard to bigger things.

Just to clarify, I wasn't trying to compare styles. I was more trying to compare numbers and minor league/early career success levels. 

 

Here are some of their minor league numbers...Meyer's are to date including the rough start to this year. Santana left/Meyer right.

 

68 games, 60 starts/82 games, 76 starts

350.2 IP/387.2 IP

350 hits/338 hits

357 strikeouts/448 strikeouts

3.4 BB per 9 IP/4.0 BB per 9 IP

4.70 ERA/3.48 ERA

1.372 WHIP/1.313 WHIP

 

Those are just a couple. We see that Meyer has actually had a significantly higher level of success in the minors than Santana did. Probably why Santana ended up being a rule 5 pick. However, my point was, I think its far too early to count Meyer out, and in fact its time for him to have a shot out of Minnesota's bullpen. And every MN fan knows that those bullpen numbers that he's posted over the past couple weeks, even if they doubled would be welcomed in the big league pen as he continues to develop. And to reiterate my point further using the Santana example, by putting him in the pen does not necessarily destine him to a career long reliever. 

[ttreadway]

 

The Twins stuck with Santana in 2000 mainly because he was a Rule 5 guy and they wanted to keep him.  If they could have optioned him, I'm sure they would have.

 

I didn't go back and review the numbers, but there's not much in common style-wise.  Meyer is 6'9" (vs. 6'0"), is right-handed, throws much harder than Santana did, and has a slider as his #2 pitch.  (Santana had possibly the best change-up of all time, although I'm not sure if he learned it before or after 2000.)

 

It's not a very good comp.

 

That said, the long-relief role can be useful for pitchers of different styles, and it can be used effectively as an evaluation tool and, hopefully, as a springboard to bigger things.

Also, Santana did not develop his devastating change up until 2002 when the twins sent him down to the minors to work on it. 

[troyhobbs]

If he's having success this year as a RP then they should bring him up in that role and try to work him back up to SP for the long term.  If he doesn't show he's got the make up to be a SP but is still success as a RP then that's what he is. If it was my call he'd be pitching out of the MLB bullpen very soon.

[Loosey]

I would straight up swap him for Duensing today.  I know that leaves Thompson as the only lefty out of the pen but I would rather have Meyer in there getting major league reps.  Let him finish the season in the pen and give him a spot start if needed and then one more shot next year to start.  If that doesn't work, you got a hard throwing bullpen arm.

[Thegrin]

To bring up Meyers, the Twins will have to drop 3 !!! count 'em !!! THREE !!! of our current relievers.  One must go to make room for Santana. One must go to make room for Nolasco.  And one must go to make room for Meyers. 

Everybody will pick Duensing,,, some will pick Thompson... Who next ???  Tomkin ?

 

Even if you brought up Meyers first, the other choices must be made.  

[DocBauer]

I absolutely want Meyer to get another shot at starting, do well, get promoted, do well, and in a year or two become a #1 or #2 starter. And it could very well still happen. That door is in no way closed, IMO, and I believe the Twins feel the same.

 

However, what if he does stay as a hard throwing SO capable relief pitcher? Really, would that be such an awful thing in the scheme of the Twins universe? Fien and Meyer blowing away hitters to get to Perkins, with Meyer as a possible future closer. Jay, perhaps, along with auditions of Darnell, Hurlant, Thompson, a rehabbed Melotakis,  and the various LHSP options at AAA and AA....suddenly you have a TOP bullpen to go along with a rotation of Hughes (better than he's shown this year), Santana, Gibson, May, Berrios as well as a few other depth options and some really nice options down in A ball.

[troyhobbs]

 

To bring up Meyers, the Twins will have to drop 3 !!! count 'em !!! THREE !!! of our current relievers.  One must go to make room for Santana. One must go to make room for Nolasco.  And one must go to make room for Meyers. 

Everybody will pick Duensing,,, some will pick Thompson... Who next ???  Tomkin ?

 

Even if you brought up Meyers first, the other choices must be made.  

Good point, but Duensing aught to be the easy choice, then maybe Tonkin when Nolasco comes back, trade Pelfrey when Santana returns might be how I'd do it.

[ashbury]

 trade Pelfrey when Santana returns might be how I'd do it.

Phew. Unless the bottom falls out of the season, and unless Big Pelf likewise is on the skids for several starts, you're faced with trading one of the most successful starting pitchers on a team that is in the vicinity of contention for the first time in years. A tough sell to the fan base. Even if analytically it may be the smart move.

 

That has always been the weak spot in the plan to trade from strength in starting pitching. In practice you'll only feel able to trade your 5th or 6th best starter, and you'll get little to nothing in return, especially if there is any salary involved (such as Nolasco). Again, analytically it may be right to trade Nolasco and his salary, and it may fly with your fan base, but you're not going to restock your minor league system by doing it.

 

All that said... I want Meyer up and in the major league bullpen. I wanted him there in 2014, as an introduction to the majors with an eye still toward starting by mid-season or by 2015. If, as discussed above, a middling prospect like Tonkin has to suffer another demotion, so be it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't care what they do with him as long as it involves putting him back in the rotation at some point. 

[Pitz]

To me getting him in the MLB bullpen is a win-win-win. (But it shouldn't be decisive of his future role beyond this year.) The rotation depth is there for this year, that Meyer shouldn't be needed as a starter for the big club.

Win #1 - It allows Meyer to get experience getting big league hitters out. I'm in favor of starting out in lower leverage opportunities and hopefully easing him into higher leverage situations.

Win #2 - It allows Meyer to work more closely with Neil Allen.

Win #3 - It infuses more talent into the bullpen.

[nater79a]

Would be kind of unorthodox having both Alex Meyer and Tyler Jay as key members of your major league pen this year, only to return to the minors next year to continue their starting careers.

 

But I like it!

[USAFChief]

They should leave him in the pen, start giving him back to back one inning appearances, and have him in the big league pen within a week or two.

 

This doesn't seem difficult to me.