Article: Can Joe Mauer Rebound From Poor Start?

[Parker Hageman]

With the Minnesota Twins experiencing a losing skid that threatens to take them below the .500 mark, there is no shortage of hand-wringing over Joe Mauer’s subpar performance.

 

Inserted daily in a key middle-of-the-order position, Mauer has vastly underperformed his career rates. As Aaron Gleeman detailed this week, Mauer’s season has been borderline disastrous in terms of production at a position that places a premium on offensive contributions. Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson echoed those concerns as well, citing Justin Morneau’s on-going battle with concussions that has sidelined him for an indefinite period of time.

 

The real question everyone is asking themselves is if this is how it ends for Mauer -- rather than going out with a bang, does he goes out with a whimper?Isolating the source behind Mauer’s apparent decline is a lot like trying to figure out why they keep trying to open a dinosaur theme park on that island. There are multiple factors at play and we may never know the real reason. Aging, the rigors of catching, physical injuries and, of course, brain injuries have all likely played a role in his current status.

 

The concussion may be the easiest of the dots to connect considering his performance before and after the trauma, Mauer also managed to compile impressive second-half numbers in 2014 (.300/.388/.419 in his final 63 games) and battled an oblique injury in between. There is no denying that the concussion has had some effect on his game -- likely a significant one at that -- but the late season surge suggests that he is capable of playing through it. With that in mind, it is difficult to place the entire output decline this season squarely on the concussion.

 

Early last season, opponents began to align their outfield defenses to combat his opposite field tendencies. The Rays were one of the first organizations to shade him almost as an exclusively opposite field hitter, moving their right fielder within steps of where a center fielder should normally play. Mauer, who averaged .422 batting average on balls in play from 2009-2013 when going the other way on the fly or on a line, suddenly found that some of those hits were being taken away. This season, with more teams joining in the outfield shift game, even fewer liners and flies are becoming hits and his average going the other way is down nearly 100 points from his 2011-2014 totals.

 

It is somewhat surprising that it took until 2014 for teams to recognize Mauer’s radical split tendencies. After all, Fangraphs.com’s Dave Cameron was championing the use of the double shift (infielders shifting one way, outfielders the other). “So, stat guys working for MLB clubs reading this,” Cameron wrote over five years ago, “this is your challenge for 2010 – convince your manager to give the double-shift against Mauer a chance. Make him change his approach in order to get on base. Stop letting him beat you just because he’s so different than a normal hitter.”

 

What teams finally saw in the data was a clear-cut pattern from Mauer in which almost none of his batted balls were reaching the far right portion of the outfield. At least not in the air. Why waste time covering real estate that isn’t going to get touched? Teams were smart to hedge their bets on Mauer’s opposite field tendencies.

 

Download attachment: export.png

Although the strategy only directly stole about 10 hits away from his overall totals, the shifting may have also had a psychological effect on Mauer which influenced his performance. The alignment would challenge Mauer to attempt to adjust from his bread-and-butter (opposite field liners) and try to elevate pitches on the pull side. In May manager Ron Gardenhire told the media that he felt Mauer would start hitting the ball in different zones in order to reset the defense. By the time June rolled around last year, he had successfully transitioned away from dumping balls into left and hit a higher percentage of them up the middle. His average and on-base percentage began to ramp up again as the outfield defenses began to play straight-up.

 

This offseason Mauer and the Twins went to some length to correct the fly in the ointment to ensure the shift wouldn’t be an issue moving forward.

 

In spring training, mlb.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote that Mauer was working tediously with Tom Brunansky to pull the ball better than he did last season. Last season he finished with a .224 batting average when pulling the ball -- the lowest among qualified hitters. As one of the game’s best pure hitters, this was a giant pox and addressing it would be a must. After honing his craft, Mauer came out in this season’s first month with a 36% pull rate which was the highest distribution of batted balls to his pull side over the last six years. And it paid off too. He has hit .310 with a .431 slugging percentage when hitting that direction, a sizable improvement over 2014.

 

But that may have also created new problems.

 

One of Mauer’s most glaring problems this season has been a lack of performance against fastballs. From 2010 to 2014, he has batted .359/.451/.541 against the heat. Even last season he managed to hit .318/.408/.421 off fastballs. In all cases, the vast majority of those numbers came from driving fastballs the other way. In 2015 he is batting just .256/.310/.353 on the cheese and has attempted to pull those pitches at a much higher rate (from 18% in 2014 to 26% in 2015).

 

 

What stands out the most in the data is that Mauer has increased the amount of times he chases after a fastball out of the zone -- particularly inside and off the plate:

 

Download attachment: output_FifNOU.gif

Download attachment: Mauer.png

 

This is interesting because it appears that either Mauer or the coaching staff moved him slightly away from the plate as well. This may be a response to the jump in cutters and fastballs in on the hands.

 

http://i.imgur.com/4DVFJe2.gif

 

The shifting and Mauer’s response somewhat explains the decline in batting average but it certainly does not explain not being able to drive the ball with authority. While a new approach at the plate could result in some iffy contact, Mauer has witnessed a precipitous drop in both his hard hit ball figures as well as his fly ball distances. That is likely due to either his physical state or his concussion. However his game plan at the plate as well as the defensive alignment may be partly responsible for the loss of extra base hits. From 2011 through 2014, Mauer feasted upon the left field line, using that to accumulate numerous doubles.

 

Download attachment: export (1).png

With teams stationing a fielder on the chalk and a newly kindled effort to pull the ball, Mauer has hit fewer balls to the left field line than he had in the past.

 

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Now when he receives a fastball on the inner-half or middle-in, instead of inside-outing the pitch or punching it towards left as he did in the past, he is now trying to go up the middle or towards right. This has resulted in a spike in grounders and the defense’s infield middle shift has taken away a number of would-be base hits.

 

The notion that Mauer would become an power machine once he started to pull the ball more never manifested. While he has shown the ability to achieve a few more base hits on the right side, he still has not proven that he can elevate the ball in that direction and teams have opted to shade him to left to take away his extra base hit potential. Unless he can figure out a way to somehow drive the ball on the pull side, the tactics of yanking pitches has been detrimental to his overall approach. Even with the shaded defensive alignment, it may be in Mauer’s best interest to return to his strength of driving the ball the other way -- even if it means losing some hits in the process.

 

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[Dantes929]

I have been saying all along that he should ignore the shift.   The pitchers were even throwing to the outside corner which should be in his wheelhouse to go to left.   In other words he should be able to square more balls up going the other way which would offset the fact that the shift will take away some of those well hit balls.  

Another factor psychologically besides the shift is the strike zone.    I listen to opposing team's broadcasts and several times they mention that Mauer didn't like a strike call and for good reason.   This goes with when I watch the games and fox tracks show that borderline calls on the outside corner and even a little more than borderline are called strikes.  This would naturally erode one of Mauer's strengths which is discipline in the strike zone. 

[Parker Hageman]

Another factor psychologically besides the shift is the strike zone.  I listen to opposing team's broadcasts and several times they mention that Mauer didn't like a strike call and for good reason. This goes with when I watch the games and fox tracks show that borderline calls on the outside corner and even a little more than borderline are called strikes.This would naturally erode one of Mauer's strengths which is discipline in the strike zone.

 

 

He has actually reduced the number of K's from last year but the ones he does have are mostly caught looking. It is down and away that has been the biggest culprit for called strikes. 

 

I didn't mention this in the post because I don't get paid by the word but Mauer's been more aggressive early in the count -- first pitch and otherwise -- than he has been in the past. He has had just 7% of his plate appearances going into the 3-1 count which is well-below is 13% 3-1 career average and means fewer walks and fewer counts to drive the ball. 

 

[puckstopper1]

 

He has actually reduced the number of K's from last year but the ones he does have are mostly caught looking. It is down and away that has been the biggest culprit for called strikes. 

 

I didn't mention this in the post because I don't get paid by the word but Mauer's been more aggressive early in the count -- first pitch and otherwise -- than he has been in the past. He has had just 7% of his plate appearances going into the 3-1 count which is well-below is 13% 3-1 career average and means fewer walks and fewer counts to drive the ball. 

 

Thanks for the analysis Parker!  You bring up many factors that are potentially contributing to Joe's decline.  If he indeed did move away from the plate a bit, it would explain why he is striking out looking on pitches on the outside corner. Those used to be balls, distance wise, when he was closer to the plate.

[Willihammer]

So he is swinging at more fastballs inside in an attempt to pull the ball more. He is attempting to pull the ball in order to a. beat the shift and b. hit for more power. However by swinging at these pitches he is neither improving his BABIP or Slg%.

 

At what point do the Twins declare failure at turning him into a "corner profile" guy and just let him do his thing again?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Can we just please not make this thread about Joe Mauer again?  Oh wait, never mind.  

 

Good article, Parker.

[Parker Hageman]

Can we just please not make this thread about Joe Mauer again?  Oh wait, never mind. 

 

 

I'm hoping this thread just digresses into a debate about why they keep building a theme park on that dinosaur island. SMH

 

[Craig Arko]

 

I'm hoping this thread just digresses into a debate about why they keep building a theme park on that dinosaur island. SMH

Quoth the poet Randy Moss: Straight cash, homie.

[Mike Sixel]

He can......not sure he will. Largely this ignores that he's also just older......and might not be as good in general. Or, I missed that while reading.

 

I do agree, that if he has changed his approach, it isn't working, and he should go back to his old approach. But, I worry that he's just getting older and worse.......

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

He can......not sure he will. Largely this ignores that he's also just older......and might not be as good in general. Or, I missed that while reading.

 

 

Paragraph 4, sentence 3: "Aging, the rigors of catching, physical injuries and, of course, brain injuries have all likely played a role in his current status..."

 

I don't want to ignore that -- I do believe there is some age-related decline in here -- but there are also numerous players who have played well into their 30's. And his second-half of last year witnessed solid production out of him. Now a lot of those players didn't catch or have concussions, which is why I think there is a blend of factors contributing to his decline. But those are the factors that are contributing to his inability to drive the ball. 

 

I have seen some references to a decline in bat speed on this site (and elsewhere) but the fact that he is ahead of more fastballs than he has been suggests to me that the bat speed is fine. 

 

Here's the thing -- aging, concussions, etc -- while they have some effects on his overall play, they are not the reason behind the change in pulling the ball more or avoiding hitting the ball into the left field corner. I don't blame the Twins for trying to get Mauer to pull the ball more -- that's a big vacancy in right field -- but I would rather he just go back to hitting into the shift and letting the cards fall as they may. 

[nicksaviking]

 

He can......not sure he will. Largely this ignores that he's also just older......and might not be as good in general. Or, I missed that while reading.

 

I do agree, that if he has changed his approach, it isn't working, and he should go back to his old approach. But, I worry that he's just getting older and worse.......

 

I agree,  most guys who age well seem to base their twilight years more on their power, Joe looks to be losing his.  This is too bad as traditionally in sports, strength is the one physical quality that can hold up or even increase into retirement.  I'm not talking about HR either.  From my poorly trained eye, I think his the bat speed is greatly reduced.  The line drives he hits certainly don't seem to travel far.

Edited June 17, 2015 by nicksaviking

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

So - have any media members had the stones to interview Mauer and ask him questions about his health, or his own theories for his slumping performance in 2015?

 

I think Molitor would be candid if asked point blank about his first baseman. Has anyone asked him on record?  It feels like they've ignored the issue on Molitor's radio show on Sundays, maybe I am just forgetting what they talked about.

 

Mauer would not be obligated to really say anything about it, and I wouldn't blame him if he decided to give a non-answer, I think the coaches might be more likely to give some feedback publicly.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Another sign his head isn't in the right place is his decisions in the field. On Monday night the pitcher squared to bunt in a sacrifice situation and lined a hard bunt on an easy hop to Mauer who was already rushing in to field it. Joe had an eternity to pivot and throw to 2nd to force the lead runner and I'm sure Suzuki was yelling second base. (Actually I'm not sure about that.) Instead, Joe waited for the pitcher to jog up the line further and then eventually applied a tag. Maybe Suzuki didn't call the right base. Maybe Joe has self-doubt about making that 270 degree pivot and long throw to second. Maybe he forgot the game situation once the ball was put in play. Either way, Mauer's baseball sense didn't seem to be working on that play.

[clutterheart]

So...it doesn't sound like there any many answers to why he is doing so poorly.

 

So what do the Twins do going forward?  It won't be easy to win with a firstbaseman hitting so poorly.

 

[Parker Hageman]

I think Molitor would be candid if asked point blank about his first baseman. Has anyone asked him on record?

 

 

Molitor addressed his thoughts on Mauer last week:

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-mauer-still-productive-despite-dip-in-batting-average/307077631/

 

“He drives in runs,” manager Paul Molitor said. “I’ve trusted him in an important spot in the lineup. Runs in today’s game are tough to come by, [and] I think his production has been more than good enough for the role we’ve asked him to serve.”

 

 

Molitor also thinks Mauer has had some hits stolen from him.

 

“There have been times when he’s gone through a couple of rough patches. … I don’t like it when players are like, ‘Well, I’ve been hitting the ball hard and I’m just not getting the luck.’ I mean, that’s baseball,” Molitor said. “But sometimes you have to acknowledge that the guy has been having good at-bats, relatively consistently for the whole season.”

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Figured I missed that part, Parker, sorry.

 

IIRC, I recently read on Fangraphs that as players age and lose some ability, they often try to compensate by trying to pull for more power. I really hope that's not the case here, but I remain concerned.

[ericchri]

 

Quoth the poet Randy Moss: Straight cash, homie.

Hmmm.  That's a lot of cash...

 

http://mashable.com/2015/06/17/jurassic-world-cost/

[Willihammer]

 

Another sign his head isn't in the right place is his decisions in the field. On Monday night the pitcher squared to bunt in a sacrifice situation and lined a hard bunt on an easy hop to Mauer who was already rushing in to field it. Joe had an eternity to pivot and throw to 2nd to force the lead runner and I'm sure Suzuki was yelling second base. (Actually I'm not sure about that.) Instead, Joe waited for the pitcher to jog up the line further and then eventually applied a tag. Maybe Suzuki didn't call the right base. Maybe Joe has self-doubt about making that 270 degree pivot and long throw to second. Maybe he forgot the game situation once the ball was put in play. Either way, Mauer's baseball sense didn't seem to be working on that play.

Joe seems to have bungled some first-to-second plays this year for whatever reason. The other day he hit a runner in the back, and in a game a few weeks ago had a double play ball hit to him but he threw it so softly that the return throw didn't come in time. Strange. Maybe nothing tho.

[USAFChief]

It seems to me his reduced hard hit percentage and reduced fly ball distances are ample proof of a drop in bat speed.

[Boom Boom]

I know there was a lot made of Brunansky working with Mauer on pulling the ball in the air, but how do we know that he's not just doing the same thing he's had success with in games?

 

I have noticed more swings early in the count, but in regards to hit trajectory, it looks all the same to me. Fly balls to left and grounders to second. Defenses haven't had to adjust the shift from what they were already doing.

[Boom Boom]

Oh, and in regards to dinosaur theme parks, life... a ha... hmmm finds a way.

[Parker Hageman]

It seems to me his reduced hard hit percentage and reduced fly ball distances are ample proof of a drop in bat speed.

 

 

It's not necessarily bat speed that is keeping him from squaring up on pitches or driving the ball. Another data point about Mauer this season is an increase in foul balls on fastballs -- which is another way of saying he's missing them.  

 

I know Trackman doesn't date back that far but the only way really to see if his bat speed is slowing is to check on that system.

 

I have noticed more swings early in the count, but in regards to hit trajectory, it looks all the same to me. Fly balls to left and grounders to second. Defenses haven't had to adjust the shift from what they were already doing.

 

 

Right. He's pulling the ball more but it's on the ground. He's pulling pitches that he normally wouldn't (those in the vertical middle of the zone) or on the inner-half (he would inside-out those) and when he does pull, it is on the ground. The defense can still do what it has been doing the last two years (outfield shift left, infield shift right) and take away hits. 

 

[markos]

 

Although the strategy only directly stole about 10 hits away from his overall totals, the shifting may have also had a psychological effect on Mauer which influenced his performance.

Are you guessing that 10 hits were stolen just in 2014? If so, that is pretty significant - adding those hits back in would increase his batting average to .299. And if you assume that half of the hits stolen were potential doubles, that would up his OPS to .780. 

[Halsey Hall]

Good writeup Parker.  I don't know the problem other than Mauer is a problem right now, not only with the bat but with on field decisions. 

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Somewhat of a tangent - Mauer not hitting as a first baseman, or Mauer being the worst hitting first baseman is not the thing to focus on. Teams can construct their lineups differently defensively. Dozier's homers and XBH in general are welcome regardless of where he's playing on defense. If the Twins had another player that had no other place in the field and was outhitting Joe right now, then sure, bench Mauer for this other guy that provides more value. I don't see that guy on the current roster.

 

If you wanted to pretend that Joe was at second and Dozier was at first, would it be better somehow? If a team has a cleanup guy an he's a catcher, or a SS, or a 2B... that's great. I don't subscribe to the idea that certain defensive positions have a duty provide a specific brand of offense. 

 

What is significant is comparing Mauer to other hitters batting 3rd in the lineup. That feels like fair ground for criticism. In that sense, there's a big problem. Most of the team is slumping right now, so it's not just Mauer, but it couldn't hurt to try some other configurations, they can't hit much worse as a group as they are now.    

[Parker Hageman]

RE: Bat speed & unluckiness.

 

BaseballSavant.com tracks exit speeds. According to their leaderboard filter, Joe Mauer averages 89 MPH on the batted ball speed which is roughly league average (using the thumb eyeball test). He actually has a slightly better exit velocity than Joey Votto who is hitting .295/.396/.547 this year. Early research has shown that around 90 MPH a batted ball has a better chance of becoming a hit than it does an out. 

 

According to BaseballSavant, Mauer has hit over 49 balls of a batted ball rate of 90 MPH or above that have been turned into outs. Only six other batters have had that type of bad luck. 

 

M. Betts - 70

Pujols - 61

Melky Cabrera - 59

Fielder - 56

Granderson - 50

Prado - 50

Mauer - 49

 

There is no way to pull a historical track record of this but this leads me to believe that Mauer has hit plenty of at 'em balls or players have been positioned in places to take away a lot of those hard hit balls.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Somewhat of a tangent - Mauer not hitting as a first baseman, or Mauer being the worst hitting first baseman is not the thing to focus on. Teams can construct their lineups differently defensively. Dozier's homers and XBH in general are welcome regardless of where he's playing on defense. If the Twins had another player that had no other place in the field and was outhitting Joe right now, then sure, bench Mauer for this other guy that provides more value. I don't see that guy on the current roster.

 

If you wanted to pretend that Joe was at second and Dozier was at first, would it be better somehow? If a team has a cleanup guy an he's a catcher, or a SS, or a 2B... that's great. I don't subscribe to the idea that certain defensive positions have a duty provide a specific brand of offense. 

 

What is significant is comparing Mauer to other hitters batting 3rd in the lineup. That feels like fair ground for criticism. In that sense, there's a big problem. Most of the team is slumping right now, so it's not just Mauer, but it couldn't hurt to try some other configurations, they can't hit much worse as a group as they are now.    

 

Couldn't disagree more. Players play a position, not a batting order. They should be compared to players at those positions. Pretty sure that is what every single statistic that compares players does, compares them to other players at their position.

 

Joe isn't at 2B. Nor is he catching. He's playing 1B. Batting order could pretty much be random and not matter much.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 

Couldn't disagree more. Players play a position, not a batting order. They should be compared to players at those positions. Pretty sure that is what every single statistic that compares players does, compares them to other players at their position.

 

Joe isn't at 2B. Nor is he catching. He's playing 1B. Batting order could pretty much be random and not matter much.

my point is that you don't carry the bat out onto the field with you, and if you're hitting poorly, it doesn't matter which defensive position you play.

If you are a slick fielder, that can give you a little leeway. If the rest of the lineup is hitting, then it's less of a problem. If you're not fielding well, and you're not hitting well (like Mauer), the only saving grace is being the best option out of several bad options.

The production team A gets from their first baseman, that same production doesn't have to come from the first baseman on team B.

[HitInAPinch]

It the BEARD!!  Make him shave off THE BEARD!! 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'm hoping this thread just digresses into a debate about why they keep building a theme park on that dinosaur island. SMH

 

Hey, people keep paying the entrance fee.