"St. Louis Cardinals Investigated by F.B.I. for Hacking Astros"

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-legal-implications-of-the-cardinals-alleged-hacking/

 

[USAFChief]

This is what the FBI is wasting time on??

[drjim]

 

  On 6/17/2015 at 2:17 PM, USAFChief said:

This is what the FBI is wasting time on??

 

Only when not going after steroids purchases from years before by retired players.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I work in IT, as well as security.  Having a degree doesn't make you less susceptible to hacking... just saying..

 

That said, given the Card's success and the Stro's lack of it, I'm really trying to figure out what the purpose of this would be for StL.  Perhaps that's how they've been successful, by hacking into most orgs, and perhaps they found the Houston stuff so amusing that they had to leak it... who knows...

[Mike Sixel]

 

  On 6/17/2015 at 2:17 PM, USAFChief said:

This is what the FBI is wasting time on??

 

Uh, employees of one company went into the computer systems of another company and stole secrets. Yes, this is exactly what the FBI should be doing.

[drjim]

This likely turns out to be a couple of low level employees going after Luhnow because of some slight, right?

 

Does seem like it is a perfect storm of a successful, smug organization going after the analytics darling.

[tobi0040]

 

  On 6/18/2015 at 12:12 AM, diehardtwinsfan said:

I work in IT, as well as security.  Having a degree doesn't make you less susceptible to hacking... just saying..

 

That said, given the Card's success and the Stro's lack of it, I'm really trying to figure out what the purpose of this would be for StL.  Perhaps that's how they've been successful, by hacking into most orgs, and perhaps they found the Houston stuff so amusing that they had to leak it... who knows...

 

To be fair, the Astros have effectively been tanking for 4-5 years in an effort to build up their farm system and they have done a really good job, almost flawless at doing that.

 

A team has a fixed number of scouts to send around the country and scout high school kids, college players, 5-6 minor league teams per team, as well as MLB teams.  Having access to another teams database effectively doubles your scouting capacity.  I think the benefits from this would be endless.  From seeing how they want to attack your players (especially a division rival you play 18 times), to scouting talent from high school to the big’s, to potentially comparing notes on players you have only seen a few times, notes on tendencies,  identifying how a team would potentially view your players via trade, maybe getting a tip on a guy that you should send your scouts out to see.

 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

  On 6/18/2015 at 1:16 PM, mike wants wins said:

Uh, employees of one company went into the computer systems of another company and stole secrets. Yes, this is exactly what the FBI should be doing.

We'll have to agree to disagree on that.  I don't give a rat's behind if baseball team A is too stupid or lazy to prevent baseball team B from peaking under their dress.

 

I think the FBI has more important crimes to devote time and tax money to.

[tobi0040]

 

  On 6/18/2015 at 2:46 PM, USAFChief said:

We'll have to agree to disagree on that.  I don't give a rat's behind if baseball team A is too stupid or lazy to prevent baseball team B from peaking under their dress.

 

I think the FBI has more important crimes to devote time and tax money to.

 

Just curious.  Would you think the FBI should devote time to Amazon hacking Walmarts database and networks and retrieving a database of all their customers, trends, data, new pricing promotions, and/or other proprietary and strategic information?

 

I am genuinely curious to know if you are hands off here, or because you distinguish between baseball and commerce.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 6/18/2015 at 12:12 AM, diehardtwinsfan said:

That said, given the Card's success and the Stro's lack of it, I'm really trying to figure out what the purpose of this would be for StL.  Perhaps that's how they've been successful, by hacking into most orgs, and perhaps they found the Houston stuff so amusing that they had to leak it... who knows...

I think the reports have been pretty clear that this was simply due to the Luhnow connection -- determining if he "stole" Cardinals ideas/property and embarrassing him.

 

I don't think there has been any evidence yet that suggests the Cardinals have done this to other teams, or even that they did it to the Astros for a competitive advantage.

[jimmer]

The FBI is responsible for investigating federal crimes. This is a federal crime.  

 

The idea that things that happen in baseball by teams and players isn't important just because it's a game we watch is a strikingly strange stance to take, but we see this stance all the time.  It's okay for players to take steroids, and for people to give it to them. It's no big deal.  It's not okay for us mere humans, but okay for them and not worth the time to investigate.  It's okay for one huge company to hack another, because the companies are sports organizations, but any other types of companies, throw the hammer!

 

I'm not sure how much privilege people in entertainment should be afforded, but shouldn't it stop somewhere short of excusing them of federal crimes or major crimes in general? Baseball is a game we watch, but MLB is a huge financial industry and everyone involved should be subject to the laws that everyone else is subject to.

[jokin]

 

  On 6/18/2015 at 2:46 PM, USAFChief said:

 I don't give a rat's behind if baseball team A is too stupid or lazy to prevent baseball team B from peaking under their dress.

 

I think the FBI has more important crimes to devote time and tax money to.

 

 

You don't, but the implications of the "crime" can potentially go far beyond just the under-dress-peaking.  

 

Intellectual property theft costs the US economy close to $250B each year.  MacAfee and the Center for Strategic and International Studies filed a joint report in 2013 that estimated that 500,000 US jobs are lost each year due to hacking/theft of intellectual property.  And then there's the whole "Integrity of the Game" being in question, huge financial implications in that regard- TV revenue, advertising, sponsors, gambling.  In this particular case, there's little doubt that $Millions, probably $10s of Millions, is dedicated annually to developmental costs and ongoing salaries based around a team's proprietary intellectual property.

 

What's especially shocking is the fact that the Old Boys Club, that is MLB, chose to bring in the FBI.  The implication here being, that they presumably made inquiries among the owners beforehand, and apparently that the Cardinals weren't forthcoming-  the guilty parties could have been held accountable, saved the embarrassment, and had the whole "victimless crime" swept under the rug.

 

Is the government wasting time here?  Here's the Department of Justice list of intellectual property crimes and activities, big and small, just for 2014:

 

  Quote

 

 

CCIPS PRESS RELEASES - 2014

 

Year 2014

Gaston Man Convicted of Trafficking in Counterfeit Medications (December 15, 2014)

Two Chinese Nationals Sentenced For Trafficking Counterfeit Cell Phone Cases (December 11, 2014)

Norfolk Man Pleads Guilty To Mail And Computer Fraud Charges (November 24, 2014)

Former Subway Franchise Owner Sentenced to 18 Months in Prison for Gift Card Hacking Scheme at Subway Restaurants (November 21, 2014)

Hacker Sentened to Jail in Sandwich Shop Scheme (November 21, 2014)

Former U.S. Navy Nuclear Systems Administrator Sentenced To 2 Years For Hacking The U.S. Navy And National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Computer Systems (November 21, 2014)

New Orleans Man Indicted for Selling Counterfeit Movie DVDs and Music CDs (November 20, 2014)

Donna Man Pleads Guilty in Hidalgo County Hacking Case (November 20, 2014)

Member of Organized Cybercrime Ring Responsible for $50 Million in Online Identity Theft Sentenced to 115 Months in Prison (November 13, 2014)

California Resident Pleaded Guilty To Wiretapping Law Enforcement Communications And Others (November 10, 2014)

More than 400 .Onion Addresses, Including Dozens of 'Dark Market' Sites, Targeted as Part of Global Enforcement Action on Tor Network (November 7, 2014)

Manhattan U.S. Attorney And FBI Assistant Director Announce Securities And Wire Fraud Charges Against Texas Man For Running Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme (November 6, 2014)

Olathe Man Sentenced On Federal Computer Fraud Charge (November 5, 2014)

Conspirator in Android Mobile Device App Piracy Group Pleads Guilty (November 3, 2014)

Turkish Man Sentenced for Smuggling Counterfeit Cancer Drugs (October 28, 2014)

New Bedford Man Sentenced to Four Years in Prison for Computer Hacking and Credit Card Theft (October 27, 2014)

International Hacker Sentenced (October 24, 2014)

New York Man Sentenced for Selling Counterfeit Goods (October 24, 2014)

Pennsylvania Man Pleads Guilty to Trafficking in Counterfeit Goods (October 22, 2014)

Cyber-Criminal Sentenced to Two Years for hacking the United States Navy & National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Computer Systems (October 22, 2014)

Houston Man Charged with Trafficking in Counterfeit Beats by Dr. Dre (October 10, 2014)

Alleged Russian Cyber-Criminal Now Charged in 40-Count Superseding Indictment (October 9, 2014)

Governor's Former Campaign Manager Sentenced to Prison for Computer Intrusion and False Statement Conviction (October 8, 2014)

River Ridge man and his company charged in superseding indictment with conspiring to manufacture and sell counterfeit Mercedes-Benz diagnostic equipment worth over $15,000,000 (October 3, 2014)

Department of Justice Will Not Challenge Proposed Cyber Intelligence Data-Sharing Platform (October 3, 2014)

Cyberstalking Case involving Violent Threats against Art Dealers and Their Children Leads to 5-Year Federal Prison Term (September 29, 2014)

Four Members of International Computer Hacking Ring Indicted For Stealing Gaming Technology, Apache Helicopter Training Software (September 30, 2014)

Pakistani Man Indicted for Selling 'StealthGenie' Spyware App (September 29, 2014)

Two Chinese Citizens Plead Guilty to Trafficking Counterfeit Cell Phone Cases (September 4, 2014)

Four Family Members Charged in Multistate Conspiracy to Sell Counterfeit Erectile-Dysfunction Drugs (September 2, 2014)

Two California Residents Sentenced To Prison For Computer Theft From Charlotte-Based Online Mortgage Broker (August 27, 2014)

Two Individuals Plead Guilty to Importing and Selling Hazardous and Counterfeit Toys in New York (August 27, 2014)

Nevada Prosecutor And Homeland Security Investigations Special Agent Receive Awards For Their Work On Cybercrime Case (August 26, 2014)

Los Angeles Grand Jury Indicts Chinese National in Computer Hacking Scheme Allegedly Involving Theft of Trade Secrets (August 15, 2014)

Two Chinese Citizens Charged with Trafficking Counterfeit Cell Phone Cases (August 15, 2014)

Five More Individuals Charged In Cybercrime/Bank Fraud Scheme (August 13, 2014)

Moldovan Man Sentenced For In Wire Fraud Conspiracy (August 12, 2014)

Hacker Charged with Breaching Multiple Government Computers and Stealing Thousands of Employee and Financial Records (July 24, 2014)

United States Attorney Benjamin B. Wagner Eastern District of California (July 23, 2014)

Turkish Man Pleads Guilty to Smuggling Counterfeit Cancer Drugs (July 22, 2014)

Members of Three Different Android Mobile Device App Piracy Groups Charged (July 21, 2014)

Illinois Man Sentenced for Smuggling Counterfeit Goods and Drugs into the U.S. (July 17, 2014)

Inver Grove Heights Man Indicted for Trafficking in Counterfeit Sports Jerseys (July 14, 2014)

Walter Liew Sentenced To Fifteen Years In Prison For Economic Espionage (July 11, 2014)

Toray Chemical Korea Resolves Attempted Theft of Trade Secrets Investigation and Agrees to Pay over $2 Million Penalty (July 9, 2014)

Chinese National Arrested for Conspiring to Steal Trade Secrets (July 2, 2014)

Corinna Business Pleads Guilty to Trafficking in Counterfeit Goods (June 23, 2014)

Massachusetts Man Pleads Guilty to Computer Hacking and Credit Card Theft (June 23, 2014)

Rhode Island Resident Sentenced to 50 Months in Federal Prison for (June 20, 2014)

Romanian National “Guccifer” Charged with Hacking into Personal Email Accounts (June 12, 2014)

Massachusetts Man Pleads Guilty to Importing and Selling Counterfeit Intergrated Circuits from China and Hong Kong (June 3, 2014)

St. Louis County Man Pleads Guilty to Trafficking Counterfeit Goods (June 2, 2014)

Belleville Man Pleads Guilty To Money Laundering And Wire Fraud (May 28, 2014)

Leading Member Of The International Cybercriminal Group “Lulzsec” Sentenced In Manhattan Federal Court (May 27, 2014)

Twenty South Florida Residents Charged in Wire Fraud Scheme (May 23, 2014)

Cape Cod Man Sentenced for Trafficking Counterfeit Viagra (May 21, 2014)

President of Higher Education Software Provider Pleads Guilty to Conspiring to Hack into Competitors’ Computer Systems (May 21, 2014)

Texas Man Pleads Guilty to Conspiring to Smuggle and Traffic Counterfeit Viagra Tablets (May 20, 2014)

Former Navy Nuclear Systems Administrator Pleads Guilty to Hacking Into U.S. Navy and Over 50 Other Computer Systems (May 20, 2014)

Attorney General Eric Holder Speaks at the Press Conference Announcing U.S. Charges Against Five Chinese Military Hackers for Cyber Espionage (May 19, 2014)

Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Carlin Speaks at the Press Conference Announcing U.S. Charges Against Five Chinese Military Hackers for Cyber Espionage (May 19, 2014)

U.S. Charges Five Chinese Military Hackers for Cyber Espionage Against U.S. Corporations and a Labor Organization for Commercial Advantage (May 19, 2014)

Former Subway Franchise Owner Pleads Guilty to Gift Card Hacking Scheme at Subway Restaurants (May 14, 2014)

Altavista Man Sentenced For Trafficking In Counterfeit Goods (May 13, 2014)

Rrochester Man Sentenced for selling counterfeit goods (May 9, 2014)

Three Sentenced in Wire Fraud Case (May 7, 2014)

Former Navy Nuclear System Administrator Charged with Hacking the United States Navy, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency's Computer Systems (May 5, 2014)

Former Washington University Manager Indicted on Federal Computer Fraud Charges (May 2, 2014)

Pakistani Man Sentenced in Counterfeit Viagra® and Cialis® Case (May 2, 2014)

Olathe Man Pleads Guilty To Computer Fraud (April 30, 2014)

Alleged “Anonymous” Computer Hacker Charged with 18 Counts of Cyberstalking (April 29, 2014)

Arizona Systems Administrator Sentenced for Sabotaging Ex-Employer’s Cloud-Computing Server (April 25, 2014)

Pennsylvania Man Who Sold Counterfeit Military Goods Sentenced to 21 Months In Prison (April 17, 2014)

Jury Convicts Christian County, Kentucky Man For Stealing Trade Secrets From His Former Employer (April 16, 2014)

Donna Man Charged with Hacking into Multiple Local Servers (April 10, 2014)

Remarks as Prepared for Delivery by Deputy Attorney General James M. Cole at the Pen and Pad Briefing on the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission Joint Antitrust Policy Statement on Sharing of Cybersecurity Information (April 10, 2014)

Justice Department, Federal Trade Commission Issue Antitrust Policy Statement on Sharing Cybersecurity Information (April 10, 2014)

Assistant Attorney General Bill Baer Speaks at the Pen and Pad Briefing on the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission Joint Antitrust Policy Statement on Sharing of Cybersecurity Information (April 10, 2014)

Ridgeville Man Charged with Trafficking in Counterfeit Products (April 9, 2014)

Defendant Called "The Hacker" by Law Enforcement Sentenced to 68 Months and Ordered to Forfeit over $470,000 (April 7, 2014)

Local Man Sentenced on Computer Hacking Charges (March 27, 2014)

Maine Resident Sentenced for Engaging in Cyber “Sextortion” of New Hampshire Victim (March 13, 2014)

Springfield Man Pleads Guilty to Trafficking Counterfeit Goods (March 6, 2014)

Sacramento Woman Gets 18 Months in Prison for Conspiracy to Traffic in Counterfeit Viagra and Cialis Via Craigslist (March 6, 2014)

Two Men Charged with Extensive Counterfeit Media Scheme in Fresno (March 6, 2014)

Former Winchester Brake Pad Engineer Pleads Guilty to Theft of Trade Secrets Charge (March 5, 2014)

Two Individuals and Company Found Guilty of Conspiracy to Sell Trade Secrets to Chinese Companies (March 5, 2014)

The United States Sues Sprint Communications, Inc. To Recover Overpayments For Wiretap Charges Under False Claims Act (March 3, 2014)

Modesto Man Sentenced to Prison for Counterfeit Media Conspiracy (March 3, 2014)

U.K. Computer Hacker Charged In Manhattan Federal Court With Hacking Into Federal Reserve Computer System (February 27, 2014)

Three Defendants Plead Guilty To A Copyright Infringement Conspiracy (February 26, 2014)

Chinese Nationals Sentenced In Counterfeit Sneaker Case (February 25, 2014)

Attorney General Holder Urges Congress to Create National Standard for Reporting Cyberattacks (February 24, 2014)

Sacramento Man Pleads Guilty To Trafficking In Counterfeit Viagra And Cialis (February 21, 2014)

Iowa Man Sentenced In Federal Court For Cyber-Attack On Koch Industries Subsidiary (February 13, 2014)

Riverside County Art Dealer Arrested In Federal Cyberstalking Case (February 12, 2014)

Florida Man Charged In Federal Counterfeit Case For Trafficking Bogus Automotive Devices Reverse Engineered In China (February 6, 2014)

Manhattan U.S. Attorney Announces Arrests Of Five Defendants For Conspiring To Defend Consumers Through The Sale Of Counterfeit Luxury Goods (February 5, 2014)

St. Louis Man Sentenced in Federal Court for Cyber-Attack on Koch Industries Sudsidiary (February 5, 2014)

Cyber Criminal Pleads Guilty to Developing and Distributing Notorious Spyeye Malware (January 28, 2014)

Pennsylvania Man Pleads guilty To Selling Counterfeit Goods, Including Counterfeit Military Goods (January 27, 2014)

International Law Enforcement Efforts Result in Charges around the World against Operators and Customers of Email Hacking Websites (January 24, 2014)

Four Alleged Members of Android Mobile Device App Piracy Groups Charged (January 24, 2014)

Michigan Man Sentenced For Stealing Trade Secrets (January 16, 2014)

Two Turkish Nationals Indicted for Smuggling Counterfeit Cancer Drugs (January 16, 2014)

Bluefield, W.Va Resident Pleads to Structuring and Wire Fraud Charges (January 14, 2014)

Two California Men Arrested for Email Hacking Scheme that Yielded Nude Photos that were Posted on 'Revenge Porn' Website (January 14, 2014)

Guilty Plea in Counterfeit Viagra® and Cialis® Case (January 10, 2014)

Springfield Man Agrees to Plead Guilty to Trafficking in Counterfeit Goods (January 6, 2014)

 

[spinowner]

 

  On 6/18/2015 at 4:35 PM, spycake said:

I think the reports have been pretty clear that this was simply due to the Luhnow connection -- determining if he "stole" Cardinals ideas/property and embarrassing him.

 

I don't think there has been any evidence yet that suggests the Cardinals have done this to other teams, or even that they did it to the Astros for a competitive advantage.

If they did it they should be prosecuted. Why they did it is totally irrelevant.

[tobi0040]

 

  On 6/18/2015 at 8:09 PM, spinowner said:

If they did it they should be prosecuted. Why they did it is totally irrelevant.

 

Agreed.  Like robbing a bank because you didn't like the bank manager.  You can do that and donate the proceeds to charity or throw them in the trash.  You still robbed a bank.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

  On 6/16/2015 at 5:05 PM, jimbo92107 said:

"Agents soon found that the Astros’ network had been entered from a computer at a home that some Cardinals officials had lived in. The agents then turned their attention to the team’s front office."

 

They stole passwords, hacked into the Astros database, but didn't know enough to mask their own IP address?

 

So unprofessional, in so many ways.

 

Let's get one thing straight, these aren't professional hackers.  Not even sure I'd call them amateurs.  Using an old password because some idiot didn't change it when moving from one org to another to hack into a system is child's play...  An amateur hacker could at least tell you what a SQL injection attack was (also a very simple hack) and cover his tracks.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

  On 6/18/2015 at 4:35 PM, spycake said:

I think the reports have been pretty clear that this was simply due to the Luhnow connection -- determining if he "stole" Cardinals ideas/property and embarrassing him.

 

I don't think there has been any evidence yet that suggests the Cardinals have done this to other teams, or even that they did it to the Astros for a competitive advantage.

 

It was more a joke than anything.  I wasn't implying that they weren't.  I just find it rather amusing that one of the most successful orgs in modern baseball is accused of hacking one of the least successful ones.

[tobi0040]

A fascinating read.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13106874/why-houston-astros-database-worth-hacking

[jokin]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 12:42 PM, tobi0040 said:

A fascinating read.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13106874/why-houston-astros-database-worth-hacking

 

 

Sig Mejdal,  again.  

 

  Quote

 

 

Sig Mejdal, Houston's director of decision sciences, helps the Astros reach those conclusions. Luhnow hired the former NASA engineer in St. Louis and brought him along to Houston. Mejdal gave Bloomberg another concrete example of Ground Control's power.

 

When the Astros plucked Colorado's Collin McHugh off the waiver wire after the 2013 season despite his career 8.94 ERA, the move might've surprised some folks. But today's major league stadiums are wired with systems such as PitchF/X and TrackMan that use Doppler radar to track the ball in three dimensions. For every pitch thrown in every game, teams now know the location, acceleration, movement, velocity and the axis of rotation of the ball. The Astros grabbed McHugh because they saw that while his sinker didn't play well at Coors Field, he had a superior curveball that rotated about 2,000 times a minute, or 500 times more than an average curve spins.

It was the baseball equivalent of noticing a needle in the data haystack.

 

Hence, the reason for the Astros hiring of a physicist.

[tobi0040]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 2:36 PM, jokin said:

Sig Mejdal,  again.  

 

 

Hence, the reason for the Astros hiring of a physicist.

 

I worry about where other teams are and where the Twins are.

[jokin]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 4:12 PM, tobi0040 said:

I worry about where other teams are and where the Twins are.

 

 

Yep.  In this instance, Tim Stauffer comes to mind. 

 

The Astros turned out to be right on Aiken.   Meanwhile, the Twins drafted a diabetic pitcher with ongoing shoulder problems who appears to be in the midst of a current minor implosion (based on Bryce Zimmerman's account in his recent appearance... hopefully only temporary, but still...)..

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

  On 6/19/2015 at 4:12 PM, tobi0040 said:

I worry about where other teams are and where the Twins are.

It's certainly a concern. The best part of this story is the disclosure of information such as in this article. I had been wondering what McHugh's secret was, and now we know!

 

The drama circling Houston and St Louis circa 2011 is a bit juicier than I thought, I will admit. I think people are setting themselves up for disappointment if they expect Cardinals management will all be frogmarched to federal prison and Busch stadium circled with police tape, however. That's just not how these stories end.

[jokin]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 4:55 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

It's certainly a concern. The best part of this story is the disclosure of information such as in this article. I had been wondering what McHugh's secret was, and now we know!

The drama circling Houston and St Louis circa 2011 is a bit juicier than I thought, I will admit. I think people are setting themselves up for disappointment if they expect Cardinals management will all be frogmarched to federal prison and Busch stadium circled with police tape, however. That's just not how these stories end.

 

Assuming MLB's antiturst exemption still being important, I would think that the League will come down hard on the Cardinals in terms of penalties.   But the principal(s) involved will probably plea down the worst accusations.

[tobi0040]

A parallel I would make is Wall Street.  Years ago you had guys managing money with business degrees.  Some had MBA’s.

 

Some of the most sophisticated and best performing funds are staffed with Math, Statistics, Physics, and Finance PhD’s.  They take advantage of pricing discrepancies and other temporary market inefficiencies, often traded via computer code versus a person.

 

I have an MBA in finance. I found the degree to be more breadth of different topics than depth on any one. I would not get a job at one of these cutting edge firms.  

 

Baseball has gone in this same direction and the Twins don’t really seem to be there, or moving there.

[jokin]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 5:14 PM, tobi0040 said:

A parallel I would make is Wall Street.  Years ago you had guys managing money with business degrees.  Some had MBA’s.

 

Some of the most sophisticated and best performing funds are staffed with Math, Statistics, Physics, and Finance PhD’s.  They take advantage of pricing discrepancies and other temporary market inefficiencies, often traded via computer code versus a person.

 

I have an MBA in finance. I found the degree to be more breadth of different topics than depth on any one. I would not get a job at one of these cutting edge firms.  

 

Baseball has gone in this same direction and the Twins don’t really seem to be there, or moving there.

 

I've worked in the field, and in times past, I could watch the tape and when a strange set of trades were coming across, you could tell when the quantitative arbitrageurs were executing a  strategy.  It wasn't like Big Blue vs Kasparov, more like  Einstein vs. Curly, Larry & Moe.

 

I don't like the long-term odds of the "Theo vs.", or the "Luhnow vs.",  the Dave, Wayne and Rob equivalent to the "Einstein vs." comp.

[drjim]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 5:30 PM, jokin said:

I've worked in the field, and in times past, I could watch the tape and when a strange set of trades were coming across, you could tell when the quantitative arbitrageurs were executing a  strategy.  It wasn't like Big Blue vs Kasparov, more like  Einstein vs. Curly, Larry & Moe.

 

I don't like the long-term odds of the "Theo vs.", or the "Luhnow vs.",  the Dave, Wayne and Rob equivalent to the "Einstein vs." comp.

 

Maybe, maybe not. I have a couple of thoughts on this.

 

First, the Twins are doing more than people know in this regard, as are many clubs. Just because they don't broadcast it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. They were well behind the curve a couple of years ago but have made up some ground.

 

Second, baseball is more fundamentally a human industry than finance. It remains to be seen to what extent you can treat humans as assets. To me this is the mistake of comparing Luhnow and Theo (and , they are on different levels with this. There are multiple ways to be successful because of this and value can be captured in multiple ways.

 

Third, baseball is at a massively smaller scale than finance with limited firms and complete barriers to entry. There are limits to arbitrage.

 

Bottom line, as I see it, is that there is certainly value being captured, but there is value that can be captured through other methods as well.

 

To wit, Boston is probably doing pretty much the same stuff as ChC, Hou, Pit but they aren't being praised because they have made some poor moves. It will go in cycles like anything.

[jokin]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 6:49 PM, drjim said:

Maybe, maybe not. I have a couple of thoughts on this.

 

First, the Twins are doing more than people know in this regard, as are many clubs. Just because they don't broadcast it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. They were well behind the curve a couple of years ago but have made up some ground.

 

Second, baseball is more fundamentally a human industry than finance. It remains to be seen to what extent you can treat humans as assets. To me this is the mistake of comparing Luhnow and Theo (and , they are on different levels with this. There are multiple ways to be successful because of this and value can be captured in multiple ways.

 

Third, baseball is at a massively smaller scale than finance with limited firms and complete barriers to entry. There are limits to arbitrage.

 

Bottom line, as I see it, is that there is certainly value being captured, but there is value that can be captured through other methods as well.

 

To wit, Boston is probably doing pretty much the same stuff as ChC, Hou, Pit but they aren't being praised because they have made some poor moves. It will go in cycles like anything.

 

Valid points, all.  I'll counter with this:

 

The Cards phenomenal run of success in the draft under Luhnow was more than another arb play, especially in the later rounds.  That success has continued at Houston.  The Cubs have both drafted and traded very shrewdly to get to where they are now The Twins are just behind these two clubs in terms of farm strength.   But- Their "greatest"  trade of this decade?  Fuld for Milone?  The draft philosophy is intuitively obvious to the average layman.  The FA signing situation has gone from "Nobody wants to come here" to "Try to sign as many ex-Twins as possible... and overpay for the guys who most everyone else doesn't really want.... and then extend them."

[drjim]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 7:12 PM, jokin said:

Valid points, all.  I'll counter with this:

 

The Cards phenomenal run of success in the draft under Luhnow was more than another arb play, especially in the later rounds.  That success has continued at Houston.  The Cubs have both drafted and traded very shrewdly to get to where they are now The Twins are just behind these two clubs in terms of farm strength.   But- Their "greatest"  trade of this decade?  Fuld for Milone?  The draft philosophy is intuitively obvious to the average layman.  The FA signing situation has gone from "Nobody wants to come here" to "Try to sign as many ex-Twins as possible... and overpay for the guys who most everyone else doesn't really want.... and then extend them."

 

I'll concede without hesitation that Theo Epstein is the best front office executive in baseball. What makes him great in my mind is how he brings all streams together - analytics, scouting, leadership, resource management, hiring great lieutenants, etc.

 

The jury is still out on Luhnow. He has great talents for sure. Remains to be seen if his strengths can cover his weaknesses.

 

I'm not a kneejerk critic of Luhnow, I'm a fan of approaching things from a variety of methods and I don't think all franchises should be carbon copies of each other. Baseball generally runs in cycles and these two are currently the most on the upswing, but it takes sustained success over a longer period to prove a specific model will work. Epstein has done it multiple years with multiple franchises, too early for Luhnow.

[drjim]

To put it another way, I'm not fully convinced that the Twins should completely junk what they are doing and copy the Astros. I think the Twins should continually tinker with their model to improve it by further (through increased use of analytics and more strategic resource allocation for starters), but not at the expense of franchise strengths.

[tobi0040]

 

  On 6/19/2015 at 6:49 PM, drjim said:

Maybe, maybe not. I have a couple of thoughts on this.

 

First, the Twins are doing more than people know in this regard, as are many clubs. Just because they don't broadcast it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. They were well behind the curve a couple of years ago but have made up some ground.

 

Second, baseball is more fundamentally a human industry than finance. It remains to be seen to what extent you can treat humans as assets. To me this is the mistake of comparing Luhnow and Theo (and , they are on different levels with this. There are multiple ways to be successful because of this and value can be captured in multiple ways.

 

Third, baseball is at a massively smaller scale than finance with limited firms and complete barriers to entry. There are limits to arbitrage.

 

Bottom line, as I see it, is that there is certainly value being captured, but there is value that can be captured through other methods as well.

 

To wit, Boston is probably doing pretty much the same stuff as ChC, Hou, Pit but they aren't being praised because they have made some poor moves. It will go in cycles like anything.

 

My understanding could be off here.  But Goin was the first hire in the analytics department years after others had complete departments.  He had a posting for the second employee about a year ago.  Goin was already an employee of the Twins, having worked his way up from ticket sales and an operations role.  He later received an MBA from St. Thomas.

 

That strikes me as years behind databases compiled from physicists, doppler radar,  PhD's, etc. The other issue with being that far behind is the completition is ahead and moving forward, likely at a faster speed that you are "catching up"

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

the less information, the more valuable the information. The fact that there are less firms, and greater barriers to entry.....that fact makes it more likely that there are market inefficiencies that can be taken advantage of (like, you know, Moneyball....and never losing 90 games as a GM).

 

Less companies. Less public information. More value in good data.