Article: Twins Minor League Report (6/15): Sano Wants to Join Buxton

[Cody Christie]

A day after watching Byron Buxton make his big league debut, Miguel Sano wanted to make sure that Twins fans didn't forget about him. Sano is one of baseball's best prospects remaining in the minor leagues after a ton of call-ups at the beginning of this season.

 

In his last ten games, Sano is hitting .312 with two home runs, two doubles, 10 runs scored and five RBI. Entering play today, he was hitting .257/.358/.505 with 12 home runs and 12 doubles. It's interesting to see how much higher his OBP is than his batting average but that's been a trend for him throughout the minor leagues.

 

To see how Sano and the rest of the farm system fared on Monday, keep reading.RED WINGS REPORT

Rochester (Schedule Off Day)

After ending a six-game losing streak on Sunday, Rochester enjoyed a scheduled off day before starting a six-game home stand. In a weird schedule quirk, the Red Wings, who just finished a four game road series versus Scranton/WB, will play three more games versus the RailRiders. Rochester has gone 5-4 against Scranton/WB this season.

 

Over the last 10 games, the Red Wings offense has struggled to score runs. They are averaging 2.7 runs per game and they've been outscored 27 to 50 during that stretch. The team entered play on Monday night trailing Scranton/WB by 3.5 games in the International League North. The team is also 2.5 games out of the wild card chase.

 

CHATTANOOGA CHATTER

Chattanooga 4, Birmingham 1

Box Score

Chattanooga pounded out 14 hits and that was more than enough for them to finish off Birmingham in the series finale. The Lookouts took four of five games in the series to improve their record to an impressive 15 games over .500. After losing the first four games of June, Chattanooga have won 10 of their last 11.

 

Miguel Sano cracked his 12th home run of the season and finished the day 1-for-4 with a walk. Adam Brett Walker and Max Kepler both went 4-for-5 and two of Walker's hits were doubles. Stephen Wickens only managed one hit but he collected three steals in the game, including a steal of home.

 

Greg Peavey was impressive over eight innings by allowing one earned run on three hits. He struck out five and walked one to improve to 6-2 on the season. Zach Jones allowed a hit and a walk in the ninth but was still able to collect his ninth save.

 

MIRACLE MATTERS

Fort Myers 3, Daytona 2

Box Score

In their last eight games, Fort Myers has six wins but they suffered two one-run losses to Bradenton over the weekend. The Miracle returned home on Monday night to face Daytona with a chance to get back to the .500 mark and start a new winning streak.

 

Fort Myers and starter Mat Batts found themselves in an early 2-0 hole after two innings but that's where Daytona's scoring ended. Batts finished with four strikeouts and no walks in six innings while lowering his ERA to 1.90. DJ Johnson and Alex Muren kept putting zeros up on the board to finish off the Tortugas. Muren earned his second save after pitching 1.2 innings and striking out four.

 

Zach Granite helped to get the offense moving with a two-out bunt single in the third. A missed pickoff attempt moved Granite to second before a Engelb Vielma single cut the lead in half. Granite scored another two-out run in the bottom of the sixth on an Alex Swim single. Bryan Haar started the seventh with a hit by pitch before a Jason Kanzler single put the winning run in scoring position. Chad Christensen almost hit into a double play but a throwing error by the shortstop allowed the winning run to score.

 

KERNELS NUGGETS

Cedar Rapids 2, Lansing 8

Box Score

Cedar Rapids entered the day looking to sweep Lansing but the Lugnuts had other ideas. They pounded out 12 hits and capitalized on three Kernels errors for the win. Jared Wilson took his second loss of the season after allowing five earned runs on seven hits. In four innings, he allowed three walks and struck out one.

 

Jose Velez and Miles Nordgren pitch five innings without allowing an earned run but Lansing plated three unearned runs against Nordgren. Brett Doe had an error at first base on a pickoff throw and Rafael Valera had two throwing errors from second base.

 

One the offensive side of the ball, Alex Real reached base three times and hit his first home run. Brian Navarreto drew two walks, scored a run and extended his hitting streak to six games. The team left six runners on base and went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position.

 

TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY

Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Greg Peavey, Chattanooga Lookouts

Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Adam Brett Walker, Chattanooga Lookouts

 

TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS

Rochester vs. Scranton/WB (6:05 CST) – LHP Pat Dean

Chattanooga- Scheduled Off Day

Ft. Myers vs. Daytona (6:05 CST) – RHP Ryan Eades

Cedar Rapids vs. Burlington (6:35 CST) - RHP Felix Jorge

 

Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss the Monday games.

 

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[jimbo92107]

Sano knows what he needs to do: Bash a bunch of home runs, and play good 3rd base. Do that for a month, and wait for that plane ticket... ;-)

[GMinTraining]

Glad to see Walkers OPS up over .902 & his OBP is over .320.  Slowly but surely improving.  All first half highs for Walker.  His average is over .270 as of  today as well.  Let's hope he and the other Lookouts can stay hot for the rest of the first half and clinch the first half playoff bid.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

Walker is hitting extremely well, no doubt. But his K rate is up above 35% (noticeably higher than in past years) and unlike Sano (who has a better K rate too), his walk rates are not elite or even good. He is going to need to reduce that K rate if he is going to have any chance of success in the majors. That being said, the power is off the charts, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts even a bit he could be a major leaguer one day.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Sano knows what he needs to do: Bash a bunch of home runs, and play good 3rd base. Do that for a month, and wait for that plane ticket... ;-)

A month sounds about right.  There's a penchant here in TD-land to slice and dice statistics.  Sano's last 10 games were really good!  Are they sustainable over the course of a month?  I'd like to see if Sano has really knocked off all the rust from the TJ surgery. 

[gunnarthor]

Over his last 37 games, Sano is hitting .309/.388/.574 with 21 walks against 36k.  Those numbers are pretty close to what Buxton had hit over his last 42 minor league games.

 

I'd certainly be willing to let him DH over Vargas at this point.

[jokin]

A month sounds about right.  There's a penchant here in TD-land to slice and dice statistics.  Sano's last 10 games were really good!  Are they sustainable over the course of a month?  I'd like to see if Sano has really knocked off all the rust from the TJ surgery.

Over his last 37 games, Sano is hitting .309/.388/.574 with 21 walks against 36k.  Those numbers are pretty close to what Buxton had hit over his last 42 minor league games.

 

I'd certainly be willing to let him DH over Vargas at this point.

It's more than just the last 10 games, though... or even the last 37 games.

 

I've documented, and just updated, in the Sano How Soon is Now? thread that he's been performing as the best in the Southern League since April 30, as well as vs. the best performer over the whole season. And the power output is surging.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18548-miguel-sano-how-soon-is-now/page-11?do=findComment&comment=354749

 

 

 

Sano's numbers since April 30:

 

PA 168 Slash: .303/.396/.577/(.973) ISO .274 XBH 20 HR 9

 

Schwarber's numbers, 4/30-6/14:

 

PA 172 Slash: 295/.427/.525/(.952) ISO .230 XBH 14 HR 9

 

 

Schwarber is going to be DHing vs. the Twins this weekend. Why not make it Sano vs. Schwarber?

Edited June 16, 2015 by jokin

[HitInAPinch]

 

It's more than just the last 10 games, though... or even the last 37 games.

I've documented, and just updated, in the Sano How Soon is Now? thread that he's been performing as the best in the Southern League since April 30, as well as vs. the best performer over the whole season. And the power output is surging.

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/18548-miguel-sano-how-soon-is-now/page-11?do=findComment&comment=354749



Sano's numbers since April 30:

PA 168 Slash: .303/.396/.577/(.973) ISO .274 XBH 20 HR 9

Schwarber's numbers, 4/30-6/14:

PA 172 Slash: 295/.427/.525/(.952) ISO .230 XBH 14 HR 9


Schwarber is going to be DHing vs. the Twins this weekend. Why not make it Sano vs. Schwarber?

 

I'm not questioning the fact that Sano is on a roll.  However, you can't overlook the seasonal comparison between the 2.

 

Sano's numbers for the season:         .257  .358  .505  .863

Schwaber's numbers for the season:  .320  .438  .579  1.017  [holy crap, he's a catcher, too!]

 

No knock on Sano, but based on the totality of his stats, Schwaber forced the Cubs to promote him, if only for 6 days.

 

 

 

 

[jokin]

I'm not questioning the fact that Sano is on a roll.  However, you can't overlook the seasonal comparison between the 2.

 

Sano's numbers for the season:         .257  .358  .505  .863

Schwaber's numbers for the season:  .320  .438  .579  1.017  [holy crap, he's a catcher, too!]

 

No knock on Sano, but based on the totality of his stats, Schwaber forced the Cubs to promote him, if only for 6 days.

You really have to throw out everything before April 30. The guy was coming off of an 18 month layoff from live pitching. Despite the lost season he's currently eclipsing Schwarber over 40-some games, with increasingly stronger power output.

 

Sano, like Schwarber doesn't have a position yet at the major league level. But also like Schwarber, he, and circumstances, have forced the Twins to take a look at his hitting tool in the lower-stress DH role, plus giving him a chance to see what he needs to work on, both at the plate, and in the field.

Edited June 16, 2015 by jokin

[gunnarthor]

I don't think this is a time to compare season stats in different minor leagues when Sano literally missed a full year.  That he is hitting this well, after shaking off the rust, is amazing and really bodes well for his future at the ML level.  He's an elite hitter.

[jokin]

I don't think this is a time to compare season stats in different minor leagues when Sano literally missed a full year.  That he is hitting this well, after shaking off the rust, is amazing and really bodes well for his future at the ML level.  He's an elite hitter.

Huh??? What comp???? Sano and Schwarber both play in the Southern League.

[gunnarthor]

 

Huh??? What comp???? Sano and Schwarber both play in the Southern League.

My bad, I thought the other guy was in the PCL for some reason.

[jimbo92107]

 

Over his last 37 games, Sano is hitting .309/.388/.574 with 21 walks against 36k.  Those numbers are pretty close to what Buxton had hit over his last 42 minor league games.

 

I'd certainly be willing to let him DH over Vargas at this point.

Very good point, I hadn't thought of that. Vargas may be a switch hitter with a bit higher average, but his power numbers are nothing compared to Sano's. As a DH, you could have Sano hit forth right away, and work in his off time with Gene Glynn on fielding. Then gradually get him some time at 3rd or 1st base.

[jokin]

Very good point, I hadn't thought of that. Vargas may be a switch hitter with a bit higher average, but his power numbers are nothing compared to Sano's. As a DH, you could have Sano hit forth right away, and work in his off time with Gene Glynn on fielding. Then gradually get him some time at 3rd or 1st base.

+1 That's The Ticket!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My bad, I thought the other guy was in the PCL for some reason.

No prob, Cubs AAA team is indeed in the PCL.  But Schwarber is coming up from AA.

[GMinTraining]

 

Walker is hitting extremely well, no doubt. But his K rate is up above 35% (noticeably higher than in past years) and unlike Sano (who has a better K rate too), his walk rates are not elite or even good. He is going to need to reduce that K rate if he is going to have any chance of success in the majors. That being said, the power is off the charts, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts even a bit he could be a major leaguer one day.

 

What does it say that despite his BB rate being so bad, Walker has gotten on base only 7 times less than Sano this year (85 to 78)& .358 OBP;  5 times less than Harrison & his .367 OBP; and 15 times less than Buxton and his .351 OBP, yet has scored one less run than Buxton on the year.  That should not be possible with a 35% K rate?  That isn't just this year either.  Top 3 in league every year in scoring.  Just saying - Maybe just a little success in the majors?  Maybe?

[HitInAPinch]

 

You really have to throw out everything before April 30. The guy was coming off of an 18 month layoff from live pitching. Despite the lost season he's currently eclipsing Schwarber over 40-some games, with increasingly stronger power output.

Sano, like Schwarber doesn't have a position yet at the major league level. But also like Schwarber, he, and circumstances, have forced the Twins to take a look at his hitting tool in the lower-stress DH role, plus giving him a chance to see what he needs to work on, both at the plate, and in the field.

So, you're going to compare Sano's partial to Schwarber's, what exactly?

 

Timeline:

Surgery 3/12/2014

throwing program by 6/20,

7/7 light throwing

8/18 swinging bat

8/26 full BP

2/19/2015 reported to be fully recovered.  

5/1/2015  Lookouts hitting coach Chad Allen ""Early in the year, he's really tried to do too much," Allen said, per MLB.com. "He's got a lot of strength and everybody that faces him knows he's a strong man and can hit the ball a long way. At the same time, he himself is trying to do too much.

"We hit early today and just really tried to slow him down and let the ball come to him. Let him understand he doesn't have to exert himself just to hit the ball hard."

 

Allen was encouraged with Sano's approach Thursday, especially when he hit his home run.

"Tonight was a great judgment on what he was thinking, that he wasn't trying to do too much," Allen said. "He took an 80-percent swing with two strikes on a fastball in and hit a home run. It's just a matter of him relaxing, calming down a bit and letting the game come to him."

 

In other words, Sano was healthy, was over swinging, took advice,understood it and executed on that advice and improved.  The stats still count.

[thrillho]

 

What does it say that despite his BB rate being so bad, Walker has gotten on base only 7 times less than Sano this year (85 to 78)& .358 OBP;  5 times less than Harrison & his .367 OBP; and 15 times less than Buxton and his .351 OBP, yet has scored one less run than Buxton on the year.  That should not be possible with a 35% K rate?  That isn't just this year either.  Top 3 in league every year in scoring.  Just saying - Maybe just a little success in the majors?  Maybe?

 

I really hope AB Walker is a stud. But find a guy who had a little success in the majors with a .313 OBP in the minors. I'd love to see his comp but I can't find one. 

 

Mark Reynolds is a low OBP power hitter. His MLB OBP is .325 but was .360 in the minors. Adam Jones OBP of.321 in MLB but .354 in the minors. How about Pete Incaviglia? .310 in MLB but .367 in the minors. Dave Kingman? .302/.342

 

I hope I'm wrong in being pessimistic about his big league future but a .290 OBP just doesn't cut it in the big leagues. Maybe he's a one of a kind type of player but if you're betting on one of a kind type players you're going to be wrong every time but once.

[jokin]

So, you're going to compare Sano's partial to Schwarber's, what exactly?

 

Timeline:

Surgery 3/12/2014

throwing program by 6/20,

7/7 light throwing

8/18 swinging bat

8/26 full BP

2/19/2015 reported to be fully recovered.  

5/1/2015  Lookouts hitting coach Chad Allen ""Early in the year, he's really tried to do too much," Allen said, per MLB.com. "He's got a lot of strength and everybody that faces him knows he's a strong man and can hit the ball a long way. At the same time, he himself is trying to do too much.

"We hit early today and just really tried to slow him down and let the ball come to him. Let him understand he doesn't have to exert himself just to hit the ball hard."

 

Allen was encouraged with Sano's approach Thursday, especially when he hit his home run.

"Tonight was a great judgment on what he was thinking, that he wasn't trying to do too much," Allen said. "He took an 80-percent swing with two strikes on a fastball in and hit a home run. It's just a matter of him relaxing, calming down a bit and letting the game come to him."

 

In other words, Sano was healthy, was over swinging, took advice,understood it and executed on that advice and improved.  The stats still count.

Uhh, you really didn't refute much here. Sano hadn't faced live pitching for 18 months. In addition, I posted on the Sano thread, after seeing him play in early May, Sano had not yet fully adapted to the conditions at the home ballpark. The park has a 20 foot OF fence and sits atop a hill with prevailing winds blowing in from LF and CF. In the game I was at, Sano had 4 hard hit fly balls right at the wall, clearly knocked down by the wind.

 

As I documented in the other thread, since then, Sano and no doubt, Chad Allen, have put in significant adjustments to his approach- his FB% has dropped from 44% in April to 30% in May/June, while his LD% has soared from 12% in April to 26% in May/June. Meanwhile, his OPS was a paltry .684 in April, while it's .983 in June. The pitchers have tried to adjust to his adjustments, to no avail- Sano was getting 51% of his pitches in the zone in April, in June it's down to 34%, and yet his production has soared, along with a return towards his career power numbers- which have gone from ISO .222 in April, ISO .253 in May, to ISO .275 in June.

 

In short, Sano is back, with a vengeance, and has slightly outperformed Schwarber since April 30.

Edited June 16, 2015 by jokin

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure the Sano Schwarber comps work for one obvious reason.  The cubs don't carry a DH.  Schwarber is up right now because he can hit and their bench options aren't good options.  Not sure how this is the fault of the Twins for not doing the same when we have Vargas there, who also needs to learn major league pitching.  I fail to see how dumping Vargas for Sano would be good at all in the long term for the Twins.  It might satisfy a few impatient folks, but at the end of the day, I don't think our DH production is going to change much from Vargas to Sano (it might actually drop since Vargas has been doing well at a higher level and has major league experience). 

[jokin]

I'm not sure the Sano Schwarber comps work for one obvious reason.  The cubs don't carry a DH.  Schwarber is up right now because he can hit and their bench options aren't good options.  Not sure how this is the fault of the Twins for not doing the same when we have Vargas there, who also needs to learn major league pitching.  I fail to see how dumping Vargas for Sano would be good at all in the long term for the Twins.  It might satisfy a few impatient folks, but at the end of the day, I don't think our DH production is going to change much from Vargas to Sano (it might actually drop since Vargas has been doing well at a higher level and has major league experience).

Looks like Paul Molitor tends to disagree with you, or perhaps he's one of the "impatient folks", too?

 

http://www.startribune.com/miguel-sano-could-be-called-up-soon-molitor-says/307657841/

 

And actually the Schwarber comps works nicely, both don't have an established position yet, both appear to be looking at the options for each, and possibly considering if someone blocking each could be replaced, with a reultant net upgrade from either.

Edited June 17, 2015 by jokin

[HitInAPinch]

 

Uhh, you really didn't refute much here. Sano hadn't faced live pitching for 18 months. In addition, I posted on the Sano thread, after seeing him play in early May, Sano had not yet fully adapted to the conditions at the home ballpark. The park has a 20 foot OF fence and sits atop a hill with prevailing winds blowing in from LF and CF. In the game I was at, Sano had 4 hard hit fly balls right at the wall, clearly knocked down by the wind.

As I documented in the other thread, since then, Sano and no doubt, Chad Allen, have put in significant adjustments to his approach- his FB% has dropped from 44% in April to 30% in May/June, while his LD% has soared from 12% in April to 26% in May/June. Meanwhile, his OPS was a paltry .684 in April, while it's .983 in June. The pitchers have tried to adjust to his adjustments, to no avail- Sano was getting 51% of his pitches in the zone in April, in June it's down to 34%, and yet his production has soared, along with a return towards his career power numbers- which have gone from ISO .222 in April, ISO .253 in May, to ISO .275 in June.

In short, Sano is back, with a vengeance, and has slightly outperformed Schwarber since April 30.

Oops, left out: 

the part where he faced live pitching during those BP sessions [granted, some of those pitchers were recovering from injuries ] and the part where he was fully ready to participate in spring training, 3/2015.  My bad.  It was 12 months from surgery to ST. I account his poor BA to showing off, more than anything.  Nothing wrong with that, as long as it works

Yes, Sano out performed Schwarber since April 30 slightly.  I still argue that for [not 100% health, not seeing enough live BP, being a dope and swinging from his jock strap, whatever] reason, I'm still picking Schwarber way over Sano if for no other reason than he was healthy all season with incredible stats. 

[jokin]

Oops, left out: 

the part where he faced live pitching during those BP sessions [granted, some of those pitchers were recovering from injuries ] and the part where he was fully ready to participate in spring training, 3/2015.  My bad.  It was 12 months from surgery to ST. I account his poor BA to showing off, more than anything.  Nothing wrong with that, as long as it works

Yes, Sano out performed Schwarber since April 30 slightly.  I still argue that for [not 100% health, not seeing enough live BP, being a dope and swinging from his jock strap, whatever] reason, I'm still picking Schwarber way over Sano if for no other reason than he was healthy all season with incredible stats.

Not disputing that Schwarber has had the superior season. He definitely has, great scouting by the Cubs for defying convention in last year's draft. My point was more along the lines that since Epstein is giving his guy a shot at a taste of the show, and with Sano matching or surpassing him since he's gotten himself going, that it might be worth a more considered look at Sano sooner rather than later, as well. And since then, it seems like the Twins are ready to pull the trigger fairly soon.

 

In the long run, though, I'm still pretty confident that Sano is likely going to prove that he's the superior prospect